US Boosts 2015 Oil Forecast As Shale Powers Push To 10 MMbpd

The U.S. government on Tuesday jacked up its forecast for oil production next year by 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) as the boom in shale oil drilling continues to confound expectations of slower growth.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration now expects domestic output to rise to 9.53 million bpd, growing by around 1 million bpd for a third consecutive year, according to its latest monthly short-term energy outlook. A month ago the EIA had predicted output growth would slow in 2015 to 800,000 bpd.

The U.S. shale boom has allowed producers to unlock thousands of barrels of reserves, putting the United States on course to become the largest producer of oil globally, which would dramatically reduce its dependence on imports.

“Rising monthly crude oil production, which will approach 10 million barrels a day in late 2015, will help cut U.S. fuel imports next year to just 21 percent of domestic demand, the lowest level since 1968,” EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said.

The EIA also raised forecasts for 2014 U.S. output to 8.53 million bpd from the previous estimate of 8.46 million bpd. It said U.S. growth would account for 91 percent of the 1.3 million bpd rise in global oil output next year.

U.S. crude oil production has reversed years of decline thanks to the development of shale resources, which have boosted output by more than 70 percent in six years. Production averaged 8.6 million bpd in August, the highest level since July 1986, EIA data showed.

Total U.S. consumption of petroleum and other liquids was expected to dip to 18.92 million bpd in 2014 year on year, down 0.2 percent from a year earlier.

In 2015, total U.S. consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels was expected to rise by 0.8 percent to 19.08 million bpd, the EIA said. That figure is an upwards revision of 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast.

Less Need For OPEC Oil

The EIA also lowered production forecasts for Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as member states adjust to accommodate growing production elsewhere.

It decreased its 2014 forecast for OPEC supply by 0.2 percent to 35.77 million bpd and reduced its 2015 forecast by 0.6 percent to 35.86 million bpd.

The EIA added that while almost all of Libya’s export terminals are able to export crude as protests have stopped, major issues that incited the protests remain unresolved. As a result, it does not expect Libya’s oil production to recover to previous levels over the forecast period.

The EIA forecast that supply for non-OPEC countries will rise 0.3 percent to 25.37 million bpd in 2014 and increase 0.5 percent to 26.38 million bpd in 2015.

RIGZONE

8 Comments on "US Boosts 2015 Oil Forecast As Shale Powers Push To 10 MMbpd"

JuanP on Tue, 9th Sep 2014 8:34 pm 



Mighty shale! 🙂

Plantagenet on Tue, 9th Sep 2014 9:28 pm 



Funny to hear the Obama administration boasting about fracking shales and growing US oil production. I never expected the Obama administration to be a “drill baby drill—frack baby frack —emit CO2 emit” administration.

Maybe its true that it really doesn’t matter which party gets elected—-the Ds and Rs say different things but seem to basically all do the same thing.

steve on Tue, 9th Sep 2014 10:53 pm 



I wish…I wish…I wish…when this shale plays out in a couple of years it is gonna be one hell of a crash….

Nony on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 1:14 am 



The Bakken and Eagle Ford will peak eventually. Higher and later than the doomers predicted–we’re already past the pessimist predictions. But they will crest in the next few years.

But the Marcellus/Utica gas play has incredible legs and no sign of stopping. It’s takewaway limited, not geology. And there are HUGE amounts of undrilled area. Rock, you won’t be drilling for GOM gas for a generation.

Perk Earl on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 4:36 am 



It’s amazing how much the US is now extracting in oil and NG, yet we still have to import. That really says something about our massive consumption.

forbin on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 6:19 am 



” It said U.S. growth would account for 91 percent of the 1.3 million bpd rise in global oil output next year.”

What happened to everyone else?

and from the EIA

2010 forecasts for 2014 and 2014 forecasts for 2014

Price $87.80/ 98.56 Boe

production 5.70/8.53 Mboe

reserves 19.31/27.54 Billion

Thus showing not only that predictions are difficult but also that the price of oil naturally affects what can be produced .

I havent got any EROEI figures but I guess someone has.

interesting times – no sign of 120M boe per day predicted by so commentators back in the TOD days……

Forbin

shortonoil on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 2:40 pm 



The EIA has a habit of taking out their ruler, and drawing a line congruent with the historical data. What they have failed to factor in is that production costs are going up, but price isn’t. The consumer can not afford to pay any more for oil than they are paying now. They have reached their limit. The present shoddy state of the world’s economy supports that hypothesis.

Our energy analysis also supports it. The amount of energy to produce petroleum, and its products is increasing. The energy content of a unit of oil is staying the same (or declining) as lower quality fuels are being extracted. The consumer is getting less, and less energy per unit. Once the point is reached where it is no longer paying for itself, the consumer will not pay any more for it. We have reached that point; they will just cut back usage.

As production costs continue to increase, and price doesn’t, the highest production cost producers will be the first to go. Shale is about the highest on the list. If enough idiots can be found to keep throwing money at this production it could increase for a while longer. At some point, however just like oil, a point will be reached when Peak Idiot is reached.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

louis wu on Thu, 11th Sep 2014 12:31 pm 



“At some point, however just like oil, a point will be reached when Peak Idiot is reached.”
I don’t know about the peak idiot part, never underestimate human stupidity.