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Page added on October 10, 2020

U.S. Oil Production Set To Decline More From Here On Out

Summary

Real-time US oil production reading indicates ~10.783 mb/d into October.

With September US oil production now set at ~11 mb/d average, the implied decline rate between August and September excluding shut-ins is around ~500k b/d.

Consensus has US oil production flat around ~11 mb/d for the next year. This will prove to be too optimistic.

We have US oil production declining to ~10.4 mb/d by year-end and depending on where WTI is, it could be even lower by mid-2021.

The consensus production forecast will only come true if WTI is closer to $60/bbl WTI.

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, HFI Research. Get started today »

Welcome to the US oil production edition of Oil Markets Daily!

EIA’s weekly oil storage report this week came in pretty much smack in line with our estimate once you take into account SPR. Implied US oil production came in around ~11.17 mb/d, making the last two-week average ~10.783 mb/d.

Source: HFI Research

We have created the real-time US oil production tracking chart above.

Now you can see the implied US oil production on a weekly, two-week average, and four-week average basis.

What you will notice is that the peak observed back in March was significantly higher than what EIA reported. We talked about this last week in our variant perception piece.

With September US oil production now set at ~11 mb/d average, the implied decline rate between August and September excluding shut-ins is around ~500k b/d.

This ~500k b/d is unlikely to be repeated in October as we suspect much of it is due to the initial pump-up in production right after the shut-in ended. But going forward, we are seeing the implied US oil production around ~10.8 mb/d for October, which would be directly in line with our estimate.

Now looking at EIA’s recent update on US oil production, we’ve arrived at the conclusion that the team at EIA is going to be vastly off on the prediction of US oil production into the end of the year.

Source: EIA, HFI Research

As you can see, we already have September lower than what the EIA projected, and Oct/Nov/Dec will all be below EIA’s estimate.

The stark difference will be reflected by Q1 next year, and given how off EIA already is, that means its exit 2021 production forecast is going to be off as well with the caveat that if WTI does rise to $60/bbl, then EIA will be right for the wrong reason.

This outlook, in our opinion, solidifies our view that oil prices have to go up or else the supply difference will be too large to overcome especially in a normalizing demand environment.

For now, we have US oil production falling to ~10.4 mb/d by year-end. This would represent a ~3 mb/d drop since March of this year or ~75% of estimated OPEC total spare capacity (assuming Iran returns 100%) as of Dec 2019.

seeking alpha

65 Comments on "U.S. Oil Production Set To Decline More From Here On Out"

makati1 on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 6:06 pm

If you think Trump is bad, Harris will destroy your world. It is the Dem cities and states that are locked down and burning. Harris will be more of the same, and worse. Think before you vote.

BTW: Senile Biden is just the front man for Harris. She is the real candidate and he will just be the name, but not the power. There is only one party with two faces. Which ‘face’ will you vote for? Rep or Dem?

makati1 on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 6:08 pm

US “EVERYTHING” (except debt, and pain) will decline from here on out. Wait and see. Are you prepared?

bochen787 on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 6:59 pm

Phuck Amerikkka

zero juan on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 7:08 pm

asshole JuanP go back to south america where you belong.

bochen787 said Phuck Amerikkka

makati1 on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 7:16 pm

I can see that there will be no rational, intelligent, mature comments as the drugged up, mentally retarded children are online now.

Later!

ANSEL RAPIST so troo supertard so troo makati1 on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 7:16 pm I can see that there will be no rational, intelligent, mature comments as the drugged up, mentally retarded children are online now. Later! on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 7:41 pm

when our highest education is highschool dropout
it’s hard to call that intelligence

ANSEL ANAL RAPIST whitey supertard president trump took off face panties and said prayers worked so troo supertard trump so troo everyone knows convict-19 fear (((supremetard))) on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 8:12 pm

who is the daddy?

who called for amputation of whitey supertard thunderf00t?

ANAL WART RAPIST i dont call some1 who is not a winer the l word i just call them not winning l word is muzz word used on kafir oh btw 3gd gona craok soon water over 172m on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 8:35 pm

no sluice gate open

Mick on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 8:57 pm

This site is infested with old white boomers looking to blame everything and everyone (but dont say anything bad about fat orange man) about this shit storm about to happen.

hmm OK here comes a muzzie lover Mick on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 8:57 pm This site is infested with old white boomers looking to blame everything and everyone (but dont say anything bad about fat orange man) about this shit storm about to happen. on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 9:13 pm

christmas is here again and i’ll be the one bearing no gift

they just snap up all lib urns and try hard as i may, i can never buy one to give to people

sad life i lead

makati1 on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 9:31 pm

Some of us are pre=Boomer, Mick. Some of us are not brainwashed and stuffed with US propaganda 24/7/365. Some of us have ecperiamve and intelligence, not common in the youner sprouts.

If you think Trump is bad, Harris will destroy your world. It is the Dem cities and states that are locked down and burning. Harris will be more of the same, and worse. Think before you vote.

makati1 on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 9:33 pm

ecperiamve and intelligence… should be…”experience and intelligence”. Site does not allow adjustments to posted comments. Very primitive.

Davy on Sat, 10th Oct 2020 10:34 pm

So true wak. So true.
You always been the boards voice of reason.

Go Speed Racer on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 1:20 am

Hi Makita, thx for explaining it to Mick Jagger.

I’m saying what U said.
Harris is evil wicked horrible awful.

Hey check out the liberal mental patients,
barking like a pack of dogs:
https://twitter.com/TomasMorales_iv/status/1312452128166699009

relax everybody we are home among friends we r muzzie lovers on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 2:08 am

we enjoy tasty muzz coq

Theedrich on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 2:12 am

Our universities harbor a Communist underground. The Marxist criminals using the media-generated anti-police marches intend to destroy the government entirely. They are taught to do so by deviant professors with Ph.D.s in tax-supported colleges and universities. The bribe-ocrat Democrat Party has been devoured whole by them and by shiploads of Sörös cash. The mainstream media and international internet corporations are in the same bed.

Biden is too senile to recognize what is happening. His only concern is getting more money for his son and brothers. The Hindoo-Coonness with her leers, scowls and smirks intends to take over as a female Stalin, backed by other unWhites such as AOC, Ilhan Omar and the like whose goal is an anti-White Gulag state run by themselves. The riots are carefully orchestrated mainly by affluent White followers of Pol Pot and comrades. The American FBI is corrupt and interested only in diverting attention from the devastating savages to “White racism,” so its hierarchy can amass more power.

The American Left is a mortal disease. But the masses seem to demand it.

After all, after death there are no more cares.

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 2:54 am

“The riots are carefully orchestrated mainly by affluent White followers of Pol Pot and comrades.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/07/opinions/trump-biden-presidential-election-robert-redford/index.html

“Robert Redford: This is who gets my vote in 2020”

The best a US white nationalist can hope for is a stalemate on November 4 and following chaos, where both parties refuse to admit defeat and the unravelling of the US can start in earnest.

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 3:06 am

“Grazia magazine sacks its new ‘diversity champion’ for posting anti-Semitic Twitter rants – including one which read, ‘Auschwitz gas chamber music LMAO'”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8826999/Grazia-magazine-sacks-new-diversity-champion-posting-anti-Semitic-Twitter-rants.html

The Soros bunch has a serious problem. They thought they could use the darkies as foot soldiers in the great anti-white revolution, orchestrated by them.

But the poor Jews have a little problem: they have a white skin and are affluent as in stinking rich. As a consequence the darkies don’t see the Jews as their natural leaders, very much unlike the Russian rabble in 1917. The Muslim world refuses to accept the holohoax religion, the gullible Christian whites-on-a-guilt-trip are embracing as if it was Brigitte Bardot in her better years.

Some Jews already foresaw that in ca. 2000 and warned that the Jews had already achieved in America the best possible position and that further dark immigration would undermine that favorable position:

https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2019/10/24/stephen-steinlight-was-right/

Another example is James Howard Kunstler, coming from the old Democrat Left, currently rooting for Donald Trump. Not out of ideological conviction, but because he fears that the alternative is far worse, especially for Jews.

Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 3:44 am

British academic and science biographer

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Dutch-Light-Christiaan-Huygens-Science/dp/1509893318/ref=sr_1_1

“Dutch Light: Christiaan Huygens and the Making of Science in Europe”

Huygens was the greatest scientist working in the vital period between Galileo and Newton, when the scientific revolution was gathering pace. He discovered Saturn’s ring, invented the accurate pendulum clock, and devised a wave theory of light far ahead of its time.

More even than Newton, He can be called the father of modern science, not only for his introduction of rigorous mathematics into the analysis of problems in physics, but also for his central role in building the pursuit of science as a Europe-wide collaborative project. Huygens, a Dutchman, became the leading light of the French Academy of Sciences and the first foreign fellow of the Royal Society of London. ‘The world is my country, science my religion,’ he once said.

https://www.ed.nl/wetenschap/haagse-wiskundige-is-te-lang-onderschat-christiaan-huygens-was-groter-dan-newton~ae310d7e/

“Haagse wiskundige is te lang onderschat: ‘Christiaan Huygens was groter dan Newton’”

(Mathematician from The Hague has been underestimated for too long. Christian Huygens greater than Newton)

You have to admit it, the British are “good sports” and I’m a chauvinist *sshole.lol

zero juan on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 4:53 am

The mental midget JuanP nightly noise:

relax everybody we are home among friends we r muzzie lovers said we enjoy tasty muzz coq

Davy said So true wak. So true. You always been the boards v…

whitey supertard president heinberg was the first who taught me about PO he had this book out the party is over said i bought it in an obsccure section of the universi…

Mick said This site is infested with old white boomers looki…

ANAL WART RAPIST i dont call some1 who is not a winer the l word i just call them not winning l word is muzz word used on kafir oh btw 3gd gona craok soon water over 172m said no sluice gate open

makati1 said I can see that there will be no rational, intellig…

ANSEL RAPIST asian tiger singapore is doomed because its predominantely ethnic master race chinese unfortunately they are infiltrated by master cult muzz of nativess malays and indonesia said singapore is doomed kee kuan yew built his coountr…

ANSEL ADAM ANAL RAPIST CRETINISM its unfortuantely that singapore an asian tiger is inflicted with supremacist muzz up to 15 percent this is a point of no return unless chinease division harvest supremacist muzz cultSINGAPORE under attack by Hi said Hijab Jihadis

Mick on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 4:56 am

It’s all good I don’t give a f$&k if you want to live under the regime a want a be dictator then vote orange . And reep what you sow.

zero davy on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 4:57 am

The mental midget Davy morning noise:

relax everybody we are home among friends we r muzzie lovers said we enjoy tasty muzz coq
Davy said So true wak. So true. You always been the boards v…

whitey supertard president heinberg was the first who taught me about PO he had this book out the party is over said i bought it in an obsccure section of the universi…

Mick said This site is infested with old white boomers looki…

ANAL WART RAPIST i dont call some1 who is not a winer the l word i just call them not winning l word is muzz word used on kafir oh btw 3gd gona craok soon water over 172m said no sluice gate open

makati1 said I can see that there will be no rational, intellig…

zero juan on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 6:39 am

This is from the lunatic JuanP:

zero davy said The mental midget Davy morning noise: relax everyb…

Mick said It’s all good I don’t give a f$&k…

Hey fuck face juanPPee, I also posted this on the moderated side. It is my hope the owners will shit can you from this forum like societies do with diseases:

Re: Should this site be shut down?
Postby REAL Green » Sun 11 Oct 2020, 04:48:37

Tanada wrote:
Good news, I exchanged messages with the site owner today and the site will remain open for the foreseeable future.

REAL Green wrote:
I wish the ownership would consider some changes on the news side. A minimum of auto moderation over there would increase the sanity slightly. ID theft and socks are rampant there and this discourages participation. One individual is responsible. It is my feeling many of those attracted to this site start with the news side then move over to the moderated side.

zero juan on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 6:54 am

Lunatic, JuanP, this was also posted in response to your sock Bo Chen Juan:

Re: Pat Buchanan: America in worst decline since Soviet Union

post by REAL Green » Sun 11 Oct 2020, 05:42:23

bochen787 wrote:
Trump’s OCTOBER SURPRISE is going to be US declaration of Taiwan independence, forcing China to go kinetic hot war to reunite the island of Taiwan…

REAL Green wrote:
OH Dear, Bo Chen Juan is giving us an end of the earth type prediction like the religious nuts do occasionally.
October is almost half way over. Bo Chen Juan will you shut up once October is over with no surprise or will it then be the November surprise? Your legitimacy has dropped very low with your word salad weirdo comments from illegitimate obscure sources.

The Chinese are likely not going to attack until after the election if they are going to attack at all. Biden is their candidate so the will hope for a different relationship with a new administration.

Mick on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 8:09 am

We will win bigly the likes of which the world has ever seen !

On This Day... Oct 11, 2014: Shula, Iraq Suicide bombers take Iraqi bystanders with them: 38 Killed on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 8:18 am

muzz

zero juan on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 8:49 am

JunaPpee is stupid:

On This Day… Oct 11, 2014: Shula, Iraq Suicide bombers take Iraqi bystanders with them: 38 Killed said muzz

Mick said We will win bigly the likes of which the world has…

zero davy on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 10:39 am

The mental midget Davy morning whine:

“I wish the ownership would consider some changes on the news side. A minimum of auto moderation over there would increase the sanity slightly. ID theft and socks are rampant there and this discourages participation. One individual is responsible. It is my feeling many of those attracted to this site start with the news side then move over to the moderated side.”

JuanP joined the moderated side in 2014.
Bo Chen has been a member since 2006.

whitey supertard thunderf00t

zero juan on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 3:12 pm

JuanP we know it is you and not Ape man. He never used the bold black letters, stupid. Your Ansel Anal Rapist is a stupid handle. Everything about you is stupid, JuanP!

Apneaman said It must be some kind of tortuous hell to be an exc…

Davy on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 4:47 pm

We are REAL stupid.

zero juan on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 4:56 pm

poo widdle juanPPee is angry. The troll gets trolled and he can’t stand it. He is banging his head against the wall. Welcome to hell troll.

this is from JuanP:
Davy said We are REAL stupid.

REAL Green on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 7:56 pm

We mite like to think of it as hell Davy. But every one else thinks of it as a lame unmoderated Internet forum.

Davy on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 8:54 pm

I hate you REAL Green! Come to think of it…I hate most everyone. Allmost as much as y’all hate me.

cuntfaces

makati1 on Sun, 11th Oct 2020 9:42 pm

Right On REAL Green!

REAL Green on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 1:12 am

Thank’s wak. You always been the voice of reason on the forum.

Davy on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 1:36 am

“I am wondering if it might be better for site traffic and exposure if the front page became an extension of the members only forum. IOW members could do their traditional commenting as is the case now plus there would be the front page with the news topics where “members only” could comment. I say this because the current front page is being inhabited by squatters not offering any contribution. It is more a place they can feed their desire to broadcast their agenda that is all to often off topic. So what I am proposing is a news page comment section for members only thereby enhancing the topics. I imagine sombody is spending time researching topics for the news page. That effort should result in some quality contributions in the comment part of the news section.”

Oh dear. I only bin a registered member fer 6 months. Some of the folks I would like to pretend i am nueterizing have been here for more then 15 years.

Maybe that’s why I am known as the bored’s dumbass exceptionalretard?

Davy on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 2:21 am

“I am wondering if it might be better for site traffic and exposure if the Cloggo and I got permanently banned off the intelligent posters forum. IOW members could do their traditional commenting as is the case now plus there would be no more stupid socking, stalking and jew-baiting from the two un-educated trolls. In my stupid fantasies, a “members only” could comment, but only if they express opinions and platitudes I personally approve of. I say this because the current front page is being inhabited by two idiots me, and cloggo, not offering any contribution. It is more a place they can feed my desire to broadcast my exceptionalist agenda that is always off topic. So what I am proposing is a total ban on cloggo and I, for sake of all the intelligent members only, thereby enhancing the topics. I imagine somebody is spending time researching topics for the news page but its all to hard for me to understand that part. That effort should result in some quality contributions in the comment part of the news section once cloggo and get our asses kicked to the curb for good.

On This Day... Oct 12, 1997: Sidi Daoud, Algeria Algerian children are among those massacred at a roadblock: 43 Killed on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 3:31 am

REAL Muzz

Instead degrowthers and permacultists alike should be focusing on how their strategies can on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 3:34 am

buffer and store resilience and sustainability to offer human civilization an asset instead of a threat. IOW degrowthers and permacultists need to design their approaches around what we can offer growthers instead of fighting growthers.

the board on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 4:54 am

JuanPee visited REALGreenAdaptation.blog and plagiarizer this. Good boy you need educating:

“Instead degrowthers and permacultists alike should be focusing on how their strategies can on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 3:34 am”

“buffer and store resilience and sustainability to offer human civilization an asset instead of a threat. IOW degrowthers and permacultists need to design their approaches around what we can offer growthers instead of fighting growthers.”

zero juan on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 4:58 am

This nightly juanP mental illness:

On This Day… Oct 12, 1997: Sidi Daoud, Algeria Algerian children are among those massacred at a roadblock: 43 Killed said REAL Muzz

Davy said “I am wondering if it might be better for site tra…

Davy said “I am wondering if it might be better for si…

REAL Green said Thank’s wak. You always been the voice of re…

ANAL ANsEL i read lab girl but one can not use it as a spring to discover lazy man farming the only thing i remember is trees vacate all water from the body in the winter said leaving only sap this way ice woudln’t form…

Davy said I hate you REAL Green! Come to think of it…I…

Davy said I think apeman is JuanP jawbagoad. It does not get…

jawagord said I always feel stupider after reading something fro…

REAL Green said We mite like to think of it as hell Davy. But ever…

why is muzz malala saying nothing about muzz raping and kidnaping of kafir in paki said the FGM NASTY is being mainstreamed by harry and m…

ANAL RAPIST whitey supertard president Dr. Reiner Fuellmich said legal actions already started in Germany and will spread worldwide citing experts from stanford so its not too far fetched that whitey supertard thunderf00t will be amputated soon said when this whitey supertard went on self imposed qu…

FamousDrScanlon said White Supremacists Killed More Americans Than Musl…

FamousDrScanlon said Told ya it was just a matter of time before they s…

zero davy on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 8:50 am

This morning Davy mental illness:

On This Day… Oct 12, 1997: Sidi Daoud, Algeria Algerian children are among those massacred at a roadblock: 43 Killed said REAL Muzz

Davy said “I am wondering if it might be better for site tra…

Davy said “I am wondering if it might be better for si…
REAL Green said Thank’s wak. You always been the voice of re…

Davy said I hate you REAL Green! Come to think of it…I…

Davy said I think apeman is JuanP jawbagoad. It does not get…

jawagord said I always feel stupider after reading something fro…

REAL Green said We mite like to think of it as hell Davy. But ever…

why is muzz malala saying nothing about muzz raping and kidnaping of kafir in paki said the FGM NASTY is being mainstreamed by harry and m…

FamousDrScanlon said White Supremacists Killed More Americans Than Musl…

FamousDrScanlon said Told ya it was just a matter of time before they s…

zero juan on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 9:33 am

Yo lunatic JuanP, asshole, I am taking you down using your own weaponization. Do not expect one day of rest, troll!

This is JuanP:
zero davy said This morning Davy mental illness: On This Day… Oct…

zero davy on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 9:38 am

Yo lunatic Davy, asshole, I am taking you down using your own weaponization. Do not expect one day of rest, troll!

This is Davy:
zero juan said This nightly juanP mental illness: On This Day… Oct

Davy on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 9:44 am

LMFDAO!

zero juan on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 11:41 am

the lunatic is wounded these days. His chronic depression is finally catching up to the asswipe!

This is JuanP:
Davy said LMFDAO!

zero davy said Yo lunatic Davy, asshole, I am taking you down usi…

zero davy on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 11:44 am

the lunatic is wounded these days. His chronic depression is finally catching up to the asswipe!

This is Davy:
Davy said LMFDAO!

zero davy said Yo lunatic Davy, asshole, I am taking you down usi…

the board on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 11:56 am

Fuckface widdle juanPPee, how is the chronic depression these days?

Whatever the true numbers, significantly fewer numbers of Franks than Muslims fell in that battle. Even Arab chronicles refer to the engagement as the “Pavement of Martyrs,” suggesting that the earth was littered with Muslim corpses. on Mon, 12th Oct 2020 11:58 am

only master race chinese can harvest master cult

U.S. Oil Production Set To Decline More From Here On Out

Welcome to the US oil production edition of Oil Markets Daily!

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