Three Signs the End of Oil Exports is Coming

5 Comments on "Three Signs the End of Oil Exports is Coming"

Davy on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 6:56 am 



This article has some good points but one must acknowledge the interconnected nature of the economy and the oil complex. We know that the “export land model” has important ramifications but a more important point is the approach to this and other conditions. We must include the ETP model and its modeling of the end of the economic contribution of oil to the global economy. We must acknowledge the deflation and decay of the global economy itself and the resulting demand destruction knocking on to oil supply potential. I would discount significantly technology and market based energy transitions as too late and not effective enough to offset oil’s vital contribution. Modern man cannot make it without oil. Overpopulation and overconsumption in the export land model along with conflict and decay of oil producers is converging with the dead state of oil and an economic collapse process.

Systematically our modern interconnected global world is now overextended from a stable boundary where adaptive change is possible. This boundary has been breached across a spectrum of micro systems of our human and natural ecosystem. Continued forcing from overpopulation, overconsumption, resource depletion, and ecosystem destruction is extending our global civilization further away from a stable and adaptive state. We are closing in on unknown thresholds of collapse. There are known thresholds and unknown ones. The unknown ones are the convergence of multiple knowns. We have conditions that are going non-linear with mixing. Nonlinear occurrences are difficult to quantify, model and predict.

Oil is a foundational commodity vital to this equation but only one. The economy and social fabric are one. The climate and ecosystem are another. We are approaching thresholds of bifurcation in a collapse process. Peak oil dynamics does not have to be the primary cause of this but it is surely one of the causes. I would argue one that has longer term thresholds. The economy and the social fabric is the near term danger. The bifurcation thresholds of the economy and social fabric are very difficult to predict because of the irrational components of confidence and trust. The loss of these vital human conditions results in panic and hostility. Panic and hostility with a global economy and community is suicide.

Kenz300 on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 7:42 am 



Electric vehicles are the future……… expanding volumes of electric vehicles will keep a lid on oil demand increases…….

Electric vehicles are cheaper to operate…less maintenance costs…no oil changes…….

As the price of batteries continues to fall so will the price of electric vehicles making them cheaper to own and operate than ICE fossil fuel vehicles…….. the tipping point is coming soon………….

Boat on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 10:11 am 



Kenz,

When is that tipping point for electric vehicles. A bigger problem will be the used car inventory. How high will galoline have to be for used electric to be cheaper.

penury on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 10:13 am 



Kenz400, batteries are energy storage devices, not energy creating devices. What will happen as oil dies? Who knows, look around,how many items can you see that would be available without fossil fuels?

rockman on Sun, 17th Jul 2016 12:19 pm 



They got the “first sign” wrong…very wrong. That would have happened many decades ago when the US ceased being a net oil exporter. The US was THE GLOBAL OIL EXPORTER long before either Russia or the KSA shifted into those positions.

Everyone does understand that the US was the “KSA” of oil exports at one time, don’t we? Back in the good old days when the only truly effective oil cartel (the Texas Rail Road Commission) controlled the price of oil by setting export volumes.