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Page added on July 7, 2013
The shale gas revolution: is it already over?
The production of natural gas in the US has not been increasing for about two years. Fitted with a Gaussian function, it shows a peak in the second half of 2012 and, from then on, a tendency to decline. Decoupled in its various components, the data show that shale gas production is still increasing, but not fast enough to compensate for the decline of conventional gas production.
Are we already seeing the end of the “shale gas revolution”? It is too early to say but, surely, these data agree with the viewpoint of those who had been seeing the whole story as a short lived financial bubble. (see, e.g., a recent series of statements by Arthur Berman)
4 Comments on "The shale gas revolution: is it already over?"
Plantagenet on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 11:43 pm
Shale gas production is falling in the USA because gas prices are low. Its has nothing to do with any kind of geologic limit or “peak” in NG production in the USA.
BillT on Mon, 8th Jul 2013 1:14 am
Plantagenet, finances is exactly what will limit production and end the fraking craze. It costs too much and the consumer will fade away when it returns to it’s old levels and goes on up. ALL of the desperate methods will be too expensive for the real world soon,and will NEVER recover all of the ‘recoverable’ oil. Just because something is technically possible, it does not mean that it will happen.
MrEnergyCzar on Mon, 8th Jul 2013 2:12 am
Don’t the wells peak in just a couple years? Need an exponential amount of new wells to increase production…
James A. Hellams on Mon, 8th Jul 2013 2:44 am
For those of you out there, who think you can use natural gas to replace oil for energy; you are in the worst possible dire situation.
The worldwide oil consumption is 33 billion barrels per year, according to the latest British Petroleum Statistical Survey of global oil consumption.
Each barrel of oil would need 5,800 cubic feet of natural gas equivalent to replace it. With the total worldwide consumption of oil at 33 billion barrels; you would need to have an annual production of 191.4 QUADRILLION cubic feet every year to replace the total energy in oil; and this would be in ADDITION to the draw of natural gas that already exists!