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Page added on February 7, 2018
The Shale Boom Might Not Last Long
U.S. shale is growing at a scorching rate, but will the shale industry be around for the long haul? A new study calls into question the heady projections for shale oil and gas, arguing that expectations of huge levels of production for decades to come are based on shaky assumptions.
The Post Carbon Institute’s report argues that the EIA is overstating the potential of U.S. shale, calling the projections “highly to extremely optimistic, and are therefore very unlikely to be realized.”
The report argues that while U.S. oil production has doubled from 2005 levels, and shale gas has also exploded over the same timeframe, there are underlying problems that will always bedevil shale production. For instance, shale wells typically see production deplete by 70 to 90 percent in the first three years, while fields see output drop off by about 20 to 40 percent per year without new drilling.
That means that the industry has to constantly plough more money back into production, just to keep output flat.
At the same time, not every shale well is the same. The core areas, or “sweet spots,” typically make up just 20 percent of a given shale play. When shale drillers move beyond the core, they tend to post less impressive production figures.
The shocking ramp up in production over the past decade has mostly occurred in these sweet spots, a trend that was accentuated during the market downturn beginning in 2014.
Still, vast improvements in drilling technology and techniques have more than compensated for the depletion. Shale drillers can access a greater portion of a reservoir than just a few years ago. While shale wells have always suffered from steep declines in their production profiles, overall output has trended up over the past few years, aside from the drop off after the market meltdown in 2014.
More growth is ahead. The EIA sees the U.S. topping 11 million barrels per day by the end of 2019, which means the addition of another 1 mb/d from today’s levels. It is hard to overstate the significance of this, and the output gains could yet lead to another price downturn.
But the long-term is another question. The Post Carbon Institute says that the EIA’s assumption of strong growth for the next several decades assumes that the industry will produce all proven oil and gas reserves, “plus a high percentage of unproven resources — in some cases over 100% — by 2050.” Shale oil production, according to the EIA’s 2017 Annual Energy Outlook, won’t peak until the 2040s.
The report says that scenario is extremely optimistic, and as such, probably won’t happen. The report breaks down the major shale plays to explain why. The Bakken, for instance, is already showing some signs of wear. “Well productivity improvements have flat-lined or decreased in all but two counties, indicating available well locations are running out,” the Post Carbon Institute report argues.
The Eagle Ford is also strained. The report says that the EIA is overstating its potential, with high well density and high depletion rates likely to limit the region’s ability to keep production elevated through the 2040s. “The EIA has overestimated play area by 65% compared to the current prospective drilled area,” the report says.
While the Permian is prolific, the report says that the EIA’s long-term assumptions for the Wolfcamp, for instance, rest on “vast additional, as-yet-unknown, resources” to be recovered.
In other words, drilling techniques continue to improve, but it may simply become too costly to produce as much oil as the EIA assumes will be produced. When the industry says that it can produce a lot more oil from an average shale well (higher well productivity), that may be true, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that the total volume of oil and gas that is ultimately recovered is larger. Shale firms might just end up extracting the same volume of resources from fewer wells.
The implications, if true, are profound. “The very high to extremely optimistic EIA AEO2017 projections impart an unjustified level of comfort for long-term energy sustainability,” the Post Carbon Institute wrote. “As sweet spots are exhausted, the reality is likely to be much higher costs and higher drilling rates to maintain production and/or stem declines.”
Ultimately, the report argues, rosy forecasts undercut the urgency for investment in renewable energy, EVs and efficiency, since policymakers hold an overly confident view of the country’s energy predicament. The Trump administration has discarded calls for “energy independence” in favor of “energy dominance.” This kind of triumphalism is wrongheaded and misinformed, according to the Post Carbon Institute report.
By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com
57 Comments on "The Shale Boom Might Not Last Long"
Davy on Wed, 7th Feb 2018 6:21 am
“Oil World Turned Upside Down as America Sells Oil in Middle East”
https://tinyurl.com/ybswjjse
“Yet, in a trade that illustrates how the rise of the American shale industry is upending energy markets across the globe, the U.A.E. bought oil directly from the U.S. in December, according to data from the federal government. A tanker sailed from Houston and arrived in the Persian Gulf last month. The cargo of American condensate, a type of very light crude oil, was preferred to regional grades because its superior quality made more suitable for the U.A.E’s processing plants”
“The end of a ban on U.S. exports in 2015 coupled with the explosive growth of shale production, has changed the flow of petroleum around the world. Shipments from U.S. ports have increased from a little more than 100,000 barrels a day in 2013 to 1.53 million in November, traveling as far as China and the U.K.”
CAM on Wed, 7th Feb 2018 7:48 am
We are burning up what remains faster and faster. That’s good?
pat on Wed, 7th Feb 2018 9:28 am
“The very high to extremely optimistic EIA AEO2017 projections impart an unjustified level of comfort for long-term energy sustainability,”“As sweet spots are exhausted, the reality is likely to be much higher costs and higher drilling rates to maintain production and/or stem declines.” the reality of world oil and same applies globally. the peak demand for oil is only to get much higher and higher scale with world decades late in preparing for post oil era. the terminal decline/depletion of ageing oil fields to create huge supply shortages by end of 2018. prepare..
fmr-paultard on Wed, 7th Feb 2018 9:34 am
accoding to Prof Heinberg’s graph the number of wells are generally the same in all estimates. Only production in latest prediction is 30% higher than previous high predictions. This could be anything from new understanding of gas fields or better technology. We also talked previously that the need to drill is less critical due to horizotal drilling and fracking.
Sissyfuss on Wed, 7th Feb 2018 9:41 am
Capitalism and Commercialism are inextricably conjoined. To sell the shale industry you accentuate the positives and deny any negative qualities. Spin is essential whether in dealing with energy industries, defense budgets, or in returning America to the white dominated 50s.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 7th Feb 2018 10:27 am
The US Shale Business is “not profitable” and can’t fund itself whether oil is at 100 or 50 dollars a barrel
https://imgur.com/a/t7ulB
The world’s largest oil trader Vitol says US oil production will peak in 2018
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-commodities-summit-vitol/u-s-oil-output-may-be-set-for-last-spike-in-2018-vitol-idUSKBN1CF1MZ?rpc=401&
Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html
2020s To Be A Decade of Disorder For Oil
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/2020s-To-Be-A-Decade-of-Disorder-For-Oil.html
Davy on Wed, 7th Feb 2018 10:50 am
“WTI/RBOB Sink After US Oil Production Hits Record High, Surpassing Saudis”
https://tinyurl.com/y8zfcbbc
“But all eyes were once again on US crude production as it smashed above 10m b/d. As Bloomberg’s Julian Lee notes, that huge jump in crude production is not the result of a sudden burst of drilling. More likely it is the correction we expected after the earlier release of monthly data for November that showed production was already above 10 million barrels a day three months ago. U.S. crude output hits a record high of 10.25 million bpd, surpassing both the monthly high set in Nov 1970, and Saudi Arabia’s latest production.”
Boat on Wed, 7th Feb 2018 11:06 am
Pat,
Lol @ oil shortages in 2018, 10’s of billions have already been pledged to expand production in just the Permian. The record US production was built on $50 and below oil. Now that oil is above $60 you can expect continued growth. Commonsense would say an accelerated growth.
Anonymous on Wed, 7th Feb 2018 12:30 pm
DAvid Hughes has been wrong every year. Check out his 2011, 2013 or 2015 articles. Each time he misunderestimated the shale. I will give him a pass on the 2006 peak gas talk. But not on not learning from it.
tommywantshismommy on Wed, 7th Feb 2018 1:05 pm
Drill baby drill. I’m sure it will last decades at these levels..if not centuries.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 7th Feb 2018 2:19 pm
It really doesn’t matter what happens with shale because peak oil is past and shale can’t make up for all the worlds conventional fields declining on its own.
kim on Wed, 7th Feb 2018 4:25 pm
This guy Nick Cunningham is something else. He would have done well during the 55mph speed limit Jimmy Carter era. According to the world’s leading “peak oil” experts at that time, by 2018 we should be pretty close to extracting the last few drops of oil in this planet.
Cloggie on Wed, 7th Feb 2018 10:17 pm
After shale:
https://breakingenergy.com/2014/11/06/underground-coal-gasification-gets-new-start-in-usav/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352854016300833
(peer reviewed!)
UCG as a bridge technology + ultimately renewables, that’s the future.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 7th Feb 2018 10:25 pm
Clogg
That is a total fantasy! LOL You are as dumb as they come!
Cloggie on Thu, 8th Feb 2018 3:37 pm
The #1 mr 100# renewable energy in the US Mark Jacobson, responds to his critics:
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/08/new-jacobson-study-draws-road-map-100-renewable-energy/
MASTERMIND on Thu, 8th Feb 2018 4:24 pm
Clogg
Jackobson’s paper got destroyed by scholars at MIT..Its a total fantasy! According to his paper we would have to build fifty million wind turbines and lay solar panels covering every square inch of the size of Kentucky! LOL never going to happen!
Davy on Thu, 8th Feb 2018 4:52 pm
Neder and you called NASA cowboys! Lol
MASTERMIND on Thu, 8th Feb 2018 5:47 pm
By 2020 it may be clear to everyone that oil decline has begun
http://energyskeptic.com/2018/by-2020-it-may-be-clear-to-everyone-that-oil-decline-has-begun/
Boat on Thu, 8th Feb 2018 9:36 pm
MM
If you were to give Nigeria and Lybia to Japan, S Korea, Iran to Texas and Iraq to China they could add plenty of oil to take care of demand for decades. Oh yea, Russia and Venz to Texas. Why Texas? Exceptional drillers. Norway gets the Artic. They are used to the cold. Singapore gets the China sea. PS #2 Mexico to Texas.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 8th Feb 2018 10:01 pm
Boat
Too many “If’s”…
Cloggie on Thu, 8th Feb 2018 11:15 pm
“Jackobson’s paper got destroyed by scholars at MIT..Its a total fantasy! According to his paper we would have to build fifty million wind turbines”
You are making that number of 50 million turbines up, you pear reviewed kindergarten dropout.
Jacobson has responded to his critics:
“The research finds that the cost of renewable energy is about 75% less than with traditional generation systems. Much of the lower cost comes from avoiding the health costs associated with breathing polluted air. It also shows that the total amount of energy needed to produce electricity will be about half of traditional methods. “The vast amount of these energy savings come from avoiding the energy needed to mine, transport and refine fossil fuels, converting from combustion to direct electricity, and using heat pumps instead of conventional heaters and air conditioners.””
MASTERMIND on Thu, 8th Feb 2018 11:22 pm
Clogg
Jackobson tried to sue the scholars at MIT..Which is totally unheard of..He is total idiot! He wrote on his blog once that he believed that if we built wind turbines by the gulf of mexico it would help dampen the effects of hurricanes! LOL Total nut job! The MIT scholars totally made a fool of his and I hope they ruined his career! The MIT scholars were afraid that local governments were going to start spending money on this nonsense and didnt want them to waste tax payer dollars on a total fantasy!
MASTERMIND on Thu, 8th Feb 2018 11:24 pm
Clogg
Its not about the cost of solar and wind its about the fact that they produce so little energy..It wouldn’t matter if the cost was zero if they can’t produce enough energy!
Cloggie on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 12:03 am
Its not about the cost of solar and wind its about the fact that they produce so little energy..It wouldn’t matter if the cost was zero if they can’t produce enough energy!
My 6 stupid panels on my roof produce enough electricity (1500 kWh) to keep me going for nearly 100% (over the year, I still need the grid as a buffer though). That cost me 3000 euro two years ago. The price will be 2000 euro by 2020. In the coming few years I will add another 10 panels in my garden to power a heat pump for space heating and replace double glass with three-layer glass (1500 euro). Then I will be as good as energy autark.
Over the past decades most people could afford a car, which costs 20-30k, which is 10 times as much as 6 panels and repeats itself every 10 years, where panels and turbines last at least 30 years.
The power grid began around 1880, that’s 140 years ago. The Netherlands build a natural gas grid in 10 years time. The internet with global reach with now ca. 3.9 billion users was build between 1995 and 2005-2010.
Morale: in historic perspective there is nothing exceptional about installing 10 panels per capita per 30 years time. The governments should even say to its citizens: pay for the panels yourself you f* and drive 1 year longer in your old clunker and don’t go to Acapulco, while we are using your tax resources to build mass storage for you:
Spain:
http://cdn.powermag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/PWR_120113_GM_Fig5.jpg
Czech Republic:
https://wtop.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Czech-Republic-Wonder-Plant.jpeg
Ozarks:
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/a6/6e/e2/a66ee2e178879eb95022cdc14beee6e8.jpg
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/11/19/world-record-pumped-hydro-storage-for-scotland/
Absolutely doable.
Being a concerned citizen is admirable.
Being a doomer (“nothing works, we are all going to die”) is criminal.
peakyeast on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 12:13 am
“Nearly 1/2 of the world’s population — more than 3 billion people — live on less than $2.50 a day. More than 1.3 billion live in extreme poverty — less than $1.25 a day.”
Yeah – if you exclude ½ the world + more then its possible to go renewable.
These people only make-do because of cheap fossil fuels producing food and other goods.
Mad Kat on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 1:58 am
peaky, you have no idea how they survive, and it is NOT from FFs. It’s from sheer hard labor. Working for their living. Something foreign to most Westerners and especially Americans. I see it here all the time. The people here are hustlers and have at least one side job/business going 24/7/365.
I have bought a newspaper from a one-armed man at least in his 60s, for 10 years, He sits at the same spot from at least 5 AM until late in the evening, seven days a week, rain or shine selling newspapers, single cigarettes and ‘penny’ candy. I estimate he makes less about P500/$10 per day net. Maybe $1 per hour or less.
I see a kid about 10 years old selling a sweet rice cake, wrapped in banana leaf, out of a cooler chest in front of the market I go to. He sits there most of the day. I always buy a juice drink and a small pack of cookies for him when he is there. It would be illegal for him to do that in the US and his parents would be fined or jailed, or he would be taken and put in a home.
I see men going thru the trash bags along the street, looking for recyclable plastic or glass to sell. That is not an unusual sight here. Nor is it unusual to see people sleeping in the street. Occasionally whole families. Something that is already becoming a part of the US cities.
American are spoiled but that is soon going to end. Dumpster diving will become the new sport. Wait and see. Slip slidin’…
peakyeast on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 3:49 am
Mad Kat: I have been to poor areas of Africa and I bet its not much different from the Ps.
I dont agree. – Even the remotest of places are deeply dependent on fossil fuels.
For fertilizer, for transport, for pesticides, for water, for cooling, for cooking.
The newspaper would get produced and couldnt be sold. The clothes he wear would disappear. The plastics to recycle would also quickly disappear. The doctors remedies would disappear.
Davy on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 4:16 am
“The research finds that the cost of renewable energy is about 75% less than with traditional generation systems. Much of the lower cost comes from avoiding the health costs associated with breathing polluted air.
This is an unproven blank number that can’t realistically be used. This vast new energy system must be built and paid for. The physics in relation to the scale of the energy system when it gets close to the real costs of intermittency are unproven IOW can humans reach this kind of technical state? Will the resources be there? There is a human and systematic dimension to such a state of very advanced technology. Storage is still in its infancy. The physics says the amount of extra generation needed to account for intermittency makes renewables at a certain point very costly. The realistic ability of a 100% renewable system to be able both to power and rebuild this vast system when a second life comes around is another question. If it gets built fossil fuels will build it. The second time around with its second life can renewables build it?
“It also shows that the total amount of energy needed to produce electricity will be about half of traditional methods.”
This is blank number considering we don’t yet know how far renewables can be introduced. Most numbers today try to skirt the real cost by ignoring the costs of the civilization this work-in-progress transitional renewable system dwells in. Fossil fuels will build it directly and indirectly. These numbers are not properly accounted for to trumpet fake green numbers.
“The vast amount of these energy savings come from avoiding the energy needed to mine, transport and refine fossil fuels, converting from combustion to direct electricity, and using heat pumps instead of conventional heaters and air conditioners.””
Vast amounts of resources will be needed to build out renewable energy. Are heat pumps realistic replacements of air conditioning systems? Maybe we should get away from A/C like it used to be. This is part of the problem too, we are trying to green a system that is not green. Trying to green power a system that is not scaled properly to begin with is setting that system up for failure.
Why not downsize expectations to begin with? Why not embrace localism, seasonality, and intermittency and the demand management that goes with that to start with? Why? Because this is as much human nature as technical and the reason this bold effort will likely fail. Until you conquer human nature with authoritative controls that remove the discretionary and freedom of choice it likely will not work. IOW the world is not configured for this technology to work.
What is wrong with articles like this is the extremes of science. It is like these cowboys (neder’s definition) that talk about life on Mars. We are having a hard time making ends meet now. How the hell do these fake green techno cowboys think we are going to pull this all off? This is especially true when many people don’t believe in renewables. One of the biggest hurdles is human perception. Changing perception is a real cost.
I agree that some regions will push the limits as bold pioneers. Yet, people like Nederlander cowboy don’t also acknowledge the risks associated with the failure of the technologies and forecasts. If this unproven transition does not work what will it do to their economy? There is always risks by being pioneers. I admire people who take risk. I do not admire people who trumpet victory before they really even get started.
I am a firm believer in renewables. I just spent $15,000 on a system. If you include my wood boiler, insulation, and mini-split heat pump it is even more. I firmly believe that society should invest in these alternatives and quickly as possible. We are malinvesting today in so many things we don’t need and that won’t help us when “THE” difficult period comes. Yet, I don’t believe in the extreme hyping of a total transition. This is dishonest. It is a fake green lie. Personally, I don’t think we will even get close to a fake green transition. I wish it were so but there is so much more to this than technology and economy both of which on their own are huge. Locations like regional places in Europe even if they get far with a transformation will still be subsidized by the rest of the world in so many ways. This fake green trumpeting is a matter of honesty and being realistic. Wisdom calls for this when we are so close to dangerous thresholds of change.
Davy on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 4:21 am
“American are spoiled but that is soon going to end. Dumpster diving will become the new sport. Wait and see. Slip slidin’…”
Look at the hypocrite living on his social security stipend he does not deserve casually enjoying these observations. Billy T get a life and quit living above yourself. Take responsibility for what you created. Your generation sold the country out. You are a failure. Start attuning for your sins. Start acknowledging what you did. Get a job and start doing something productive. I plan on working until I die.
Davy on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 4:24 am
I 100% agree with Peaky and this is the reason billyT is so full of it. He want to trumpet how bad all “that” is and how good “his” is. It is an age old failed human nature strategy of narcissistic agendas.
peakyeast on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 4:27 am
Accidently hit post while doing something else.. Oh how I miss edit function here…
Mad Kat on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 5:21 am
Peaky, the Ps I see are not like that at all. You cannot look at one country, sometime in the past, and assume all 3rd world countries are the same. If your country uses 2 cups of oil per capita, per year (the Ps) and most of that is used in the cities for buses, construction, the airlines, etc. How do you think that a loss of oil will make it more difficult in the countryside? Yes, some things will go away, but then, they have not been around too long for most to get used to them here. Or to need.
My farm neighbors have no electric. No running water. Wear little clothes. Grow a lot of their own food. Walk where they go, etc. How will they miss oil? The Philippine culture is thousands of years old and knows how to live without FFs.
The neighbor at our rental live in a Nipa Hut made of local materials, bamboo and palm fronds. Dirt floor. No store bought materials, and he is 72 and lives with his two small dogs. Most here do not have access to modern meds or medical facilities. No phone, etc.
There are billions in the world who live similar lives that Americans cannot even imagine. They will not be much affected by the crash. Nor will I. Bring it on! But it is going to be less painful here than in the US. Of that I am sure.
Davy on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 5:47 am
Peaky, the Ps I see are not like that at all. You cannot look at one country, sometime in the past, and assume all 3rd world countries are the same. If your country uses 2 cups of oil per capita, per year (the Ps) and most of that is used in the cities for buses, construction, the airlines, etc. How do you think that a loss of oil will make it more difficult in the countryside? Yes, some things will go away, but then, they have not been around too long for most to get used to them here. Or to need.”
More per capita bullshit out of billyT. Billy, you can’t talk about the whole country using only 2 cups of oil. The top 10% that matter and keep the country running are using the same or in many cases more, because of inefficiencies, oil as western nations. The P’s cannot feed itself. It must import food. This food is fossil fuel subsidized. All those mega urban areas are fossil fuel drenched. You are living in a false reality of a narcissistic individual that wants everyone to believe they are a failure and you are a success.
“My farm neighbors have no electric. No running water. Wear little clothes. Grow a lot of their own food. Walk where they go, etc. How will they miss oil? The Philippine culture is thousands of years old and knows how to live without FFs.”
They will be missing oil when hordes of starving people descend on their food because that is what starving people do.
“The neighbor at our rental live in a Nipa Hut made of local materials, bamboo and palm fronds. Dirt floor. No store bought materials, and he is 72 and lives with his two small dogs. Most here do not have access to modern meds or medical facilities. No phone, etc.”
The point is billyT those who run the country and make it work are high energy consumers. You noble poor don’t matter in the game you are talking about. They are cannon fodder of collapse.
“There are billions in the world who live similar lives that Americans cannot even imagine. They will not be much affected by the crash. Nor will I. Bring it on! But it is going to be less painful here than in the US. Of that I am sure.”
Complete rubbish out of the old man with dementia. The world is in massive overpopulation because of fossil fuels. This is a global phenomenon. This is not a 3rd world or 1st world deal it is all of us. In fact places like the P’s are insignificant and will be triaged off the system with catastrophic results depending on how the global system decline commences. IOW, places like the P’s will lose out to stronger nations that take what they need economically and or militarily.
Boat on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 11:23 am
Mak,
Back in the 40’s my grand father farmed 80 acres with a team of horses. After WWII my dad went back to the farm and bought him a small tractor that would pull the same 2 bottom plow. Grampa was so amazed how that changed his life.
Today we would laugh at how inefficient that tractor and plow were. Except you. You call it being spoiled. I call it exceptional.
Boat on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 11:29 am
Grandpa farmed into his 70’s and ran a few head of cattle while you live in a small box, surrounded by millions preaching to the world about others being spoiled.
MASTERMIND on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 11:42 am
By 2020 it may be clear to everyone that oil decline has begun
http://energyskeptic.com/2018/by-2020-it-may-be-clear-to-everyone-that-oil-decline-has-begun/
Important to point out the author of this study is no peak oil shill. He is a particle physicist at CERN.
GregT on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 11:54 am
“By 2020 it may be clear to everyone that oil decline has begun”
Do you even bother to read the links that you provide MM?
“Dittmar predicts the maximum possible production based on his model, and says that perhaps the Middle Eastern OPEC nations can continue to produce as much oil as they are now until 2050.”
“he assigns 4.5 million barrels per day (mbd) production for USA tight oil through 2030 and 3 mbd for Canadian tight oil plus oil sands.”
“It appears to me that Asia is the big winner, especially China and India. All of the Eastern Siberian Russian oil will go to Asia through existing or planned pipelines. Over 80% of Middle Eastern OPEC oil goes to Asia now—and this is likely to continue since Asia is four times closer than Europe or North America. Plus Asia makes the goods that the Middle East wants.”
“The consequences of the declines in oil production will be felt in all regions but OPEC Middle East countries.”
http://energyskeptic.com/2018/by-2020-it-may-be-clear-to-everyone-that-oil-decline-has-begun/
MASTERMIND on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 12:02 pm
Greg
Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% – Wikileaks
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks
Saudi Arabia ‘may run out of oil to export by 2030’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9523903/Saudis-may-run-out-of-oil-to-export-by-2030.html
WORLD ECONOMIES IN TROUBLE: Middle East Oil Exports Lower Than 40 Years Ago
https://srsroccoreport.com/world-economies-in-trouble-middle-east-oil-exports-lower-than-40-years-ago/
The collapse of Saudi Arabia is inevitable
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/collapse-saudi-arabia-inevitable-1895380679
Ouch Greg!
Cloggie on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 12:17 pm
This is an unproven blank number that can’t realistically be used. This vast new energy system must be built and paid for.
Everything must be paid for, even your fossil fuel power plant.
In a single sentence you dismiss the work of the lone American voice who tells that a renewable energy base is realistic (it is).
Let’s begin with the beginning.
Picture next to each:
– The axis of a windturbine.
– The axis of of a generator in a power plant.
On the back side they are equivalent, on the front side not so much.
All you got to do with the axis of the windturbine is mount three lightweight rotor blades on the axis. From then on the cost has been paid for and you can harvest electricity for free, for at least 30 years, probably much, much longer, with proper maintenance (15% total cost). Usually there is no big physical distance between the windturbine and electricity consumers. It’s all local.
Now the axis in the conventional fossil fuel power plant. Every gallon/m3 of fuel needs to be mined, transported, paid for, currently $70 or so per barrel. Usually the oil needs to come from far, from potential geopolitical adversaries. Supply lines are under dire threat in situation of war, especially in the Gulf area. Talking about “intermittency”. Power plants cost money as well and don’t last for ever. Average age something like 40 years.
https://qz.com/61423/coal-fired-power-plants-near-retirement/
“Most coal-fired power plants in the US are nearing retirement age”
The good news for the US is that most conventional power plants are already approaching end-of-life, so you have to build a “vast new energy system” anyway. It might come as a surprise to you but replacing them with fossil-based power plants won’t come for free either. The bad news is that not much money will be left for all sorts of imperial adventures.
/sad
GregT on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 12:20 pm
“It appears to me that Asia is the big winner, especially China and India. All of the Eastern Siberian Russian oil will go to Asia through existing or planned pipelines. Over 80% of Middle Eastern OPEC oil goes to Asia now—and this is likely to continue since Asia is four times closer than Europe or North America. Plus Asia makes the goods that the Middle East wants.”
“The consequences of the declines in oil production will be felt in all regions but OPEC Middle East countries.”
I would tend to agree more with a particle physicist at CERN, than I would with you.
Western Europe and North America are likely to feel the effects of oil decline, long before Asia and the Middle East. (Including Russia)
MASTERMIND on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 12:20 pm
Clogg you must getting paid to shill for the solar and wind lobby and big tech! So pathetic!
UC Davis Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives (Malyshkina, 2010)
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q
University of Chicago Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117
Solar and Wind produced less than one percent of total world energy in 2016 – IEA WEO 2017
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2017.pdf
Fossil Fuel Share of Global Energy since 1990 – BP 2017
https://imgur.com/k7VecMq
MASTERMIND on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 12:26 pm
Greg
You think you can have a global economy without the US and Europe? That is almost fifty percent of global GDP…And China is the worlds largest importer! They are fucked you stupid Canadian hillbilly! Who doesn’t understand basic math..
MASTERMIND on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 12:30 pm
Greg
When you are eating rat for dinner here shortly! And your daughters are being spread eagle by goons! You will saying we have oceans of oil left. It was those greedy bankers and the deep state who did this to us! LOL
GregT on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 12:39 pm
I see a near term lowering of Western standards of living, more on par with Eastern Europe and Asia.
I also see a lot of people who are woefully unprepared for what’s coming. Some who should know better, such as yourself.
peakyeast on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 12:50 pm
@GregT: Either that – or a starvation of already weak countries by instigating war or plainly preventing them from buying the resources.
The USA and EU and NATO are known warlike entities that shows no remorse or self-control when it comes to murderous geopolitical goals that may benefit themselves. Hell – even if they don’t.
Even the U.N. seems to be a willing tool.
GregT on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 12:57 pm
“Either that – or a starvation of already weak countries by instigating war or plainly preventing them from buying the resources.”
More of the same? Perhaps. But given the track record since 2003, that hasn’t exactly worked out very well, and I don’t see China and/or Russia allowing that to continue to happen for much longer.
peakyeast on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 1:03 pm
@GregT: Perhaps that is why Pentagon said that their focus is shifting towards confrontation with larger countries…
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/19/us/politics/military-china-russia-terrorism-focus.html
“Military Shifts Focus to Threats by Russia and China, Not Terrorism”
MASTERMIND on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 1:29 pm
Peakyeast
Greg is a pussy who thinks the collapse will be long and slow with no chaos! He has no perspective of tipping points! Even when the chaos is outside his door! He will just kill himself before he will admit he was wrong.
Cloggie on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 1:46 pm
You’re on crack, right millimind?
GregT on Fri, 9th Feb 2018 2:07 pm
“He will just kill himself before he will admit he was wrong.”
You are the one who has told everyone here, on more than one occasion IMA, that you plan on putting a bullet into your brain.
My plans are a tad more comprehensive than that.