Peak Oil is You
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Page added on September 20, 2013
The Rise Of ‘Plateau Oil’ In Four Charts
Peak oil is dead.
As we and others have written, the combination of the U.S. shale boom and flagging demand are going to start pushing markets sideways.
We recently got four new charts that elaborate on this phenomenon, which one might call plateau oil and gas.
It’s way better than peak oil, we’d argue, because it should leave both consumers and producers slightly satisfied and slightly unsatisfied.
First, the EIA says the oil production boom is going to decelerate by about 200,000 barrels a day starting next year.
But overall oil production is soon going to hit 12 million barrels a day, and will stay there for awhile.
This will help gas prices stay range bound — around $3.50, which has also been the quarterly average since Mach 2011 — for the foreseeable future.
For natgas (oil’s brother in fossil fuels), the production deceleration is already under way.
But the U.S. is going to be pumping about 70 billion cubic feet of natgas for as far as the eye can see.
And consumption will probably never get much higher than 90 billion cubic feet a day (we still import some).
We can live with this.
14 Comments on "The Rise Of ‘Plateau Oil’ In Four Charts"
actioncjackson on Fri, 20th Sep 2013 10:09 pm
The fucking plateau IS Peak Oil you numbskulls. Business Insider is the absolute worst, entertainment for dumb slaves. Honestly tell the idiots who read your trash whatever you like and keep ignoring $110 oil.
actioncjackson on Fri, 20th Sep 2013 10:09 pm
I got mad and that was directed at the cunts at BI.
ronpatterson on Fri, 20th Sep 2013 11:33 pm
The chart says US Crude Oil and Liquids Fuel Production. As liquids they are counting bottled gas such as propane and butane. And they are counting ethanol and even refinery process gain on imported oil.
US crude oil, not all liquids, will not just plateau it will start to decline… again… in 2014 or 2015.
rollin on Fri, 20th Sep 2013 11:54 pm
Looks like the hype is weakening. Except for the unsupported claim of a 12 million barrel per day peak, soon. ROFL
green_achers on Sat, 21st Sep 2013 12:32 am
Oh, what an idiot. Those charts are for the US. The US peaked 4 decades ago.
BillT on Sat, 21st Sep 2013 2:02 am
I think that if you believe ANYTHING coming out of government, you are a fool. And if you believe anything coming out of a financial corporation, you are a bigger fool. Desperation is setting in as both entities know the end is fast approaching for both kinds of organizations. The entire system is on the verge of collapse and what comes out the other side will not resemble anything we are used to.
Harquebus on Sat, 21st Sep 2013 3:04 am
So much for growth and paying off debt.
Jimmy on Sat, 21st Sep 2013 3:58 am
I wish this site would stick to worthy articles. this crap is a waste of space on the Internet.
GregT on Sat, 21st Sep 2013 7:54 am
Come on guys, quit being so negative. Peak oil is dead, everyone knows that.
Growth, prosperity, and a future much brighter that today, are in our future.
Buy my stock now, you too could be rich my friends.
J-Gav on Sat, 21st Sep 2013 10:12 am
Well, at least articles like this are good for some comic relief – or would be if they weren’t so tragically off the mark…
SilentRunning on Sat, 21st Sep 2013 10:54 am
… and the Plateau will last …. (A) forever or (B) will be followed by a decline? Option A violates the conservation of mass/energy, so is scientifically impossible. Which leaves us with option B. With option B we have the history of oil/gas as being a rise, a plateau, followed by a decline – which is precisely peak oil/gas.
Wow. So peak oil/gas is very much alive and will bite us in the ass.
Arthur on Sat, 21st Sep 2013 11:51 am
“The fucking plateau IS Peak Oil you numbskulls.”
.
Well, sitting on a pushpin, that’s a ‘peak experience’, but it could very well be that the fossil plateau will turn out to be broad to an extent that you can sit on it without too much b*** or any other sort of hurt whatsoever.
I am inclined to (prudently) shift away from the ASPO/EWG crowd, that says: peak fossil ca. 2020 and then slide downwards towards a model that predicts that a sustained ‘plateau’ of oil prices between 100-150$, forcing citizens, companies and government into saving/transition via price mechanism and that the resulting fossil demand destruction will cause oil prices to not explode.
There can be no doubt that there are trillions of barrels of difficult to acquire fossil fuel reserves left in the soil, as the USGS claims (more than enough to destroy the climate ten times over) to enable such a plateau.
mo on Sat, 21st Sep 2013 2:06 pm
A 100 years from now when you look at the chart the plateau will be a point
Arthur on Sat, 21st Sep 2013 4:40 pm
There is no oil mayor CEO I know of, who claims that oil will play a role of significance after 2070. So mo, you are correct. We all know that one day we are going to die, the only two open questions are: how and when. Not different for the oil age.