Page added on July 19, 2012
Few would argue with the proposition that within the next 20 or 30 years our current sources of fossil fuels and other somewhat substitutable liquids will be only a fraction of the 90 or so million barrels a day (b/d) that we are current consuming. Long before then however, fossil fuels are likely to become so expensive that major changes in how we power our civilization are likely to have occurred. Some of this change will come because existing renewable technologies such as wind and solar become more economically competitive. Some changes will come because new technologies will be discovered or developed into sources of energy or methods of saving energy. A few years of global crop failures may be enough to convince a critical mass that there is indeed something to this carbon emissions thing and something has to be done.
In looking at what we will need to maintain some recognizable semblance of our civilization in coming decades, it is clear that we are going to need new sources of energy that can be implemented at a faster pace than is happening with our current crop of renewables. Or we are going to have to come up with major efficiencies in the way we use fossil fuels. We are currently happy with, and can afford, vehicles that burn fossil fuels at tens of miles per gallon, where as with coming technology, hundreds of miles per gallon should be attainable. The missing ingredient is simply that motor fuels are still too cheap to spark a major transition to other forms of powering transportation. For now the political will to drive this spark through taxation is simply not there, particularly in the United States and we will have to wait for market forces to raise prices.
Experts in efficiency tell us that here in America we could get along with a third less energy and never miss it. The Europeans burn half the oil we do in the Untitled States and seem to get along.
Off the radar screens for most of us, however are insights into the pace at which technological developments impacting our future are taking place. One of my favorite websites is the one run by the Green Car Congress which catalogues all the developments announced each day relevant to better efficiency and less polluting energy. Every month there are dozens of announcements from all over the world of new products or claimed technical breakthroughs that could be useful in getting us through to the latter half of this century.
Many of these announcements and claims are so far down in the technological weeds that it is impossible to evaluate the significance of the claims. In the case of cellulosic ethanol (biofuels from non-edible plants) there are so many overlapping claims of progress it is impossible to tell if there is real progress being made towards a useful product and if so, just which technology might be used.
Far more comprehensible are the announcements related to internal combustion vehicles. Here we have dozens of announcements and claims by vehicle and parts manufacturers of more efficient cars and trucks that will be for sale shortly. The general tenor of these announcements is that very efficient cars and trucks could be available by the end of this decade, making the current government goals of 50 or so mpg by 2025 seem rather modest. As most vehicle manufacturers are already doing business in the EU, where gasoline retails for close to triple what it does in the U.S., they are fully cognizant that they must change before another round of gas price increases begins to drive motorists to far more limited use of their cars.
In recent weeks there have been many announcements concerning new electric cars and trucks which can provide transportation with less or even no liquid fuels. Prices of electric vehicles in comparison to conventional cars are coming down rapidly and major improvements in battery capacity and price should make electric cars competitive before the end of the decade.
Every now and again a new idea turns up in the literature that if implemented could lead to a major reduction in the need for liquid fuels. Siemens in Europe is experimenting with a hybrid freight truck that would draw is power from overhead electric lines as trams and electric trains do while traveling between cities and only use their diesels for local roads. While overhead wires and new trucks would be expensive, the advent of such technology would depend on the cost of liquid fuels and perhaps that of liquefied natural gas in the U.S.
Another interesting concept was contained in a Department of Energy grant to develop a natural gas powered vehicle that can use its own engine to pump up the natural gas to the pressures required for on board storage. This would allow a car to be connected to an inexpensive low pressure home natural gas pipe and refill itself without expensive external natural gas pumps. Another project would allow on board natural gas tanks to be created in a shape allowing them to be blended into empty space in a car.
It is impossible to say where and at what pace all this is going. At the minute the OECD is beset with serious economic problems that seem likely to continue in one from or another for many years. How much this will hinder the adoption of alternative sources of energy and energy saving technology is impossible to say. What seems reasonable to conclude, however, is that technology is not stagnant and that numerous developments are underway that reduce the demand for liquid fuels significantly. But then there is global warming.
9 Comments on "The Peak Oil Crisis: Technology Races Depletion"
DC on Thu, 19th Jul 2012 5:00 am
Ah yes, if we keep the cars running, everything will be fine. Cars will be problem, and consequence free, soon, someday….really! Well improve there mileage from 10mpg to …13 ..or maybe 14 mpg, and save the planet, and save you money, because one thing we here at GM and Oil companies value, its saving the earth and consumers money.
Green car congress is rather funny. Yes they do list all sorts of amazing(sounding) techs that will make all the problems cars create go away. One small problem. Not a single one of the clean(ish) or high-tech whatevers they often report on, are plying any of the roads I travel on(by bike). No, every single stinking noisy trash bins I see passing me, is 100% powered by good ole gas-o-line, every bit as toxic and deadly as they were 10, 20, or 50 years ago. (YMMV)
Oooo but I cant wait for the magic of TECHNOLOGY to turn it all around.
Its gonna happen
Any day now
really…
Ham on Thu, 19th Jul 2012 8:31 am
Hundreds of miles per gallon? What an Earth are they talking about? This ignores basic physics.
As for overhead wires for trucks: first they have to replace the creaking grid and who is gonna do that? Jam yesterday and jam tomorrow.
Let’s be clear, most of the technology we have been using will be stripped down and used for other purposes. Futhermore there will be no mining of asteroids.
BillT on Thu, 19th Jul 2012 8:51 am
Techno crap to the rescue! BS! I’ve lived on this planet long enough to know that 99% of tech is crap. Unnecessary and often downright stupid. The sooner the system collapses, the better for our grand kids and theirs and the planet as a whole. Americans don’t know how to live on their 5% of the world’s resources, but they are soon going to do it. Communications worked quite well when it was real operators and landlines. It was cheap, reliable and worked even when the electric was off. Sure a downed pole took a day or so to get back in service, but it did get back in service. If you bought a dial phone, it lasted for decades, and that was the problem. Not enough profit. Now you get junk made in Asia for 50 cents and it lasts until you drop it or get a drop of water in the wrong place or it just quits after a while. That is just one of the areas that come to mind. Most electro crap should never have been made. Wasted resources that are now polluting the water tables all over the world.
Arthur on Thu, 19th Jul 2012 10:00 am
My dear old mother of 85 still has the same bakelite phone she had for 60 years. With a circular dial, no buttons. Never needs to worry about charging the thing. Never malfunctioned. No brain-frying from intense magnetron-like electromagnetic fields generated by these mobile phones. My mother is very modern as she goes nowhere. Just like you too, soon.lol
Arthur on Thu, 19th Jul 2012 10:04 am
Ham: “Hundreds of miles per gallon? What an Earth are they talking about? This ignores basic physics.”
240 miles per gallon.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzUVjiKhzeM
Arthur on Thu, 19th Jul 2012 10:09 am
Remember that the occupation rate of a standard 5 seater car is 1.25, what a waste. The 2 seater VW 1L car can be operated on bio-diesel on spare occasions as a community owned car, for doctors, special occasions, etc., not to drive 30 miles to the next Walmart.
Ham on Thu, 19th Jul 2012 2:09 pm
I stand corrected Arthur. However it does make use of an electric motor, another issue re lithium, copper, platinum…
CAM on Thu, 19th Jul 2012 3:12 pm
While we might operate on a third less oil, I don’t think it would be hardly missed! Unfortunately in the US even the profligate use of energy fuels business and most importantly jobs. Think of RVs and boats, cruises, travel, airlines, hotels and motels, fast food, restaurants, the entire entertainment industry including sports, and not least the incredible array of junk foods that provide little to no nutrition. And dozens more. We could get by without any of this, but it would hardly go unnoticed.
Manfred Zysk, M.E. on Fri, 20th Jul 2012 3:42 pm
NEW ENERGY RESOURCE
HYDROGEN ENERGY REGENERATION
BY: MANFRED ZYSK, M.E. – JULY 20, 2012
E-mail: manfred5@canby.com
Website: http://www.MZ-Energy.com
PUBLICATION IS AUTHORIZED
DISCLOSURE IS PROPRIETARY AND
CONTAINS INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
THE CONTENT IS COMPREHENSIVE AND SOMEWHAT SENSITIVE
HYDROGEN ENERGY REGENERATION PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS
OUR FUTURE WITH HYDROGEN ENERGY REGENERATION PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS CAN BE VERY PLEASANT AND EXHILIRATING IF DEVELOPED TO TRULY SERVE THE HUMAN RACE. THE FAST APPROACHING DEPLETION OF FOSSIL FUELS NOW REQUIRES A MEANINGFUL LONG-TERM ENERGY SOLUTION THAT WILL SERVE THE GLOBAL ENERGY REQUIREMENTS.
ASTROLOGERS, SCIENTISTS AND RELIGIONS HAVE PONDERED THE SHAPE AND SIZE OF OUR UNIVERSE, BUT ALWAYS FOUND ANY LOGICAL EXPLANATION TO BE ELUSIVE AND MOST FRUSTRATING UNTIL NOW. THE IMMENSE SIZE AND VOLUME OF THE UNIVERSE APPEARED TO BE MUCH BEYOND ANY CALCULATIONS AND ESTIMATES, AND THE SIZE OR VOLUME IS STILL ELUSIVE TODAY. HYDROGEN AND HELIUM ARE CHEMICAL ELEMENTS WHICH HAVE A TENDENCY TO EXPAND, AND CONTINUOUSLY DO THE EXPANSION OF THE ENTIRE UNIVERSE. THIS RESEARCH BECOMES ONE OF THE MOST VALUABLE AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DATA RESOURCE IN HUMAN HISTORY, BECAUSE IT’S EFFECTS AND KNOWLEDGE WILL CHANGE MANY PREVIOUS BELIEVES AND EXISTING PUBLIC BEHAVIOR TOWARD A SANER PLANET.
HYDROGEN ABUNDANCE IN THE UNIVERSE
Hydrogen abundance in our Universe involves incredible figures and contains 74% Hydrogen, and 23% to 24% Helium by mass. Hydrogen and Helium make up 98% of all matter in our universe. A German research with a super computer estimated that 500 billion galaxies exist. The amount of hydrogen in the universe is truly gigantic, and the natural biological environment of our Earth appears to be the same as 1,000’s of other planets. Compared to many solar systems with similar environments to our own solar system, it would appear that there are very many inhabited planets similar to our Earth. 500 billion galaxies are truly enormous compared to our huge galaxy. Our little planet Earth is considered of being only a tiny, little speck of dark matter in our galaxy. Every year very large amounts of hydrogen escapes the Earth’s atmosphere and is released and enters into space and into our universe.
Hydrogen Energy Regeneration Processes and Systems is of course our only viable energy resource for the future of this planet Earth, and will last for several hundred years. Scientists have so far identified about 500 Solar Systems in our Milky Way Galaxy. But scientists estimate that tens of billions of solar systems exist in our Milky Way Galaxy, perhaps even as many as 100 Billion Solar Systems – spectacular – and this needs our full comprehension.
This is truly incredible, and when considering the fact that our entire Universe contains 74% Hydrogen, then it is obvious that the expansion of our Universe is being done primarily by Hydrogen and Helium which makes up 98% of all matter in our Universe. In view of these basic factors, our Planet Earth would not appear to be the only inhabited planet, but it would appear that many thousands of inhabited planets very similar to our Earth would have to exist. Further space research could possibly confirm this in 30-40 years.
SCIENCE AND SCIENTISTS HAVE STATED THAT HYDROGEN AND HELIUM WERE AND ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CREATION OF THE UNIVERSE, WHICH STILL CONTINUES TO EXPAND TODAY. THE BELIEF IN GOD OF CREATING THE EARCH AND THE UNIVERSE BECOMES NOW QUESTIONABLE. ENTIRE GALAXIES ARE CRASHING INTO EACH OTHER, AND DESTROY EACH OTHER. OUR UNIVERSE IS EXPANDING AT THE RATE OF HYDROGEN AND HELIUM VELOCITY IS ABLE TO EXPAND IN SPACE. AS WE EXIST ON THIS PLANET, THEN IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR MANY THOUSANDS OF INHABITED PLANETS TO EXIST IN OUR GALAXY, AND ALSO IN MOST OTHER GALAXIES. THE HUMAN RACE HAS EVOLVED FROM A MOST PRIMITIVE STATE TO A SOPHISTICATED STATE OF TECHNOLOGY AND IS NOW EXPLORING OUR SOLAR SYSTEM AND SPACE. THE EXISTINCE OF OTHER INHABITED PLANETS SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED EXTRAORDINARY.
THIS CHANGES THE PERCEPTION AND BELIEFS OF RELIGIONS, INCLUDING THE BELIEF IN HEAVEN AND HELL SCARE TACTICS, AND OF SOULS BEING TREATED TO EVER LASTING DAMNATION OF ETERNAL PAIN AND HELL, AND ARMAGEDDON BY A VENGEFUL ALMIGHTY GOD, AND OTHER TYPES OF MENTAL FOIBLES BECOMES FOREVER MORE OBSURD. GLOBAL RELIGIOUS MASS INDOCTRINATION AND FEAR OF DEATH, ANCIETIES, THREATS OF ETERNAL DAMNATION AND SUFFERAGE HAVE BEEN PRACTICED FOR THOUSANDS OF YEARS. IF PEOPLE CAN ELIMINATE AND DISPOSE OF ALL THESE SENSELESS NOTIONS AND SO-CALLED TEACHINGS, THEN THE WORLD POPULATION WOULD HAVE LESS WARS, LESS VIOLENCE, LESS HATE AND HAVE A BETTER LIVING ENVIRONMENT AND EXISTANCE.
MY PARENTS WERE RELIGIOUS, AND I HAVE EXPERIENCED THE EFFECTS OF THESE SCARE TACTICS OF RELIGIOUS TEACHINGS AND THE EFFECTS OF INDOCTRINATION. THESE TYPES OF (RELIGIOUS) TEACHINGS WERE ABHORRENT AND MOST DAMAGING TO THE HUMAN PSYCHE AND HUMAN RATIONAL OF BEING HOPELESSLY USELESS AND HELPLESS WHILE PRETENDING TO GLORIFY THIS VENGEFUL AND OBSESSED PUNISHING GOD. SUCH TYPE OF REASONING IS AGAINST ALL HUMAN VALUES, HUMAN RATIONAL AND IS SIMPLY IRRATIONAL AND SENSELESS. HOPEFULLY, WE CAN DISPENSE WITH THE COMMON PRACTICE OF SELF FLAGULLATION.
THIS MEANS THAT THE UNITED STATES AND ALL COUNTRIES NEED TO SHED THE YOKE OF ECONOMIC STRANGULATION OF AND BY THE OIL CORPORATIONS, PUBLIC UTILITIES AND MINERAL COMPANIES SO THAT A SENSABLE GLOBAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM CAN BE DEVELOPED WITHOUT CONSTANT WARS, DESTRUCTION AND DEATH OVER THE OWNERSIP OF GLOBAL FOSSIL FUEL (OIL, NATURAL GAS AND COAL) AND MANY NATURAL RESOURCES. HYDROGEN ENERGY SHOULD NOT BECOME ANOTHER ENERGY MONOPOLY LIKE THE EXISTING OIL AND FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY.
HYDROGEN ENERGY REGENERATION PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS WOULD CHANGE THE FUTURE OF THE HUMAN RACE AND NEEDS TO BE DONE PROPERLY. THE FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY AND NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY WERE PRIMARELY INVOLVED IN MASS ENNIHALATION OF ENTIRE COUNTRIES, EVEN TODAY. HYDROGEN REGENERATION CAN CHANGE THE FUTURE DRAMATICALLY, AND EVERYBODY IS WELCOME TO JOIN INTO A BETTER FUTURE FOR THIS PLANET AND FOR THE HUMAN RACE.
Hydrogen Energy Regeneration Processes and Systems are the most important and valuable resources to serve the global industries and population. Therefore Hydrogen Energy and Hydrogen Energy Regeneration need to be produced as cheap as possible worldwide in order to establish a safe and livable future.
Hydrogen Energy Regeneration Processes and Systems will reduce global climate changes, harmful carbon dioxide emissions and can replace fossil fuel. The oceans contain 11% hydrogen, and hydrogen can be reprocessed within a closed loop.
Hydrogen produces three (3) times the energy per pound compared to gasoline. The oceans comprise about 71% of the Earth’s surface. The World oceans cover an area of 139.4 million square miles (361 million sq. km), and have a water volume of 322.2 million cubic miles (1.34 million cubic km) and the oceans have an average depth of 12,230 feet (3,730 meters). The oceans water volume increases by 1 cubic meter every year.
My Hydrogen Energy Regeneration Processes and Systems are the ultimate and only viable energy technology and resources for the future, as I have frequently disclosed to our government since the 1960’s, but our government refused to fund my research, but now our government is illegally funding hydrogen regeneration research to universities, laboratories, and corporations on December 12, 2011, and are violating proprietary ownership laws.
Finally our economy is showing a slight improvement from a near economic collapse, and President Obama can be credited for his determined efforts to revive this country. There are two (2) major obstacles to overcome, and they are Hydrogen Energy Regeneration Development and the obstruction by greedy corporations, and politicians who do the bidding of corporations. Ordinarily, this type of obstruction and such activities are against the national interests, and have been considered as treason in the past. Basically, our government is exclusively working for the corporations.
Clinton in Arctic to see Impact of Climate Change
$900 Trillion Arctic Oil ??? – AFP – June 01, 2012
TROMSOE: US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton took a first-hand look on Saturday at the way a warming climate is changing the Arctic, opening the region to competition for vast oil reserves.
Experts here estimate the value of the Arctic’s untapped oil alone – not including natural gas and minerals – at $900 trillion, making it a huge prize for the five countries that surround the Arctic if they can reach it. And with climate warming opening up some 46,000 square kilometres (18,000 square miles) a year that had once been bound in ice, the region is expected to burst open, not just with oil exploration but with East-West trade along a more accessible northern route.
Returning from a tour of the Arctic coastline aboard a Norwegian research trawler with scientists and government officials, Clinton told reporters that she learned “many of the predictions about warming in the Arctic are being surpassed by the actual data.” “That was not necessarily surprising but sobering,” she said.
The United States wants to see that change managed by the Arctic Council, an advisory group composed of the Arctic’s closest neighbours, even as other countries, among them China, are drawn to the region for oil, gas and trade.
“A lot of countries are looking at what will be a potential for exploration and extraction of natural resources, as well as new sea lanes, and are increasingly expressing interest in the Arctic,” Clinton said. “We want the Arctic Council to remain the premier institution that deals with Arctic questions.” The council has its headquarters in Tromsoe, a university town of 70,000 people inside the Arctic Circle that is now emerging as a hub for research and increasingly oil and gas exploration of the region.
“Governance has to keep pace with these changes,” Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere, who accompanied Clinton on her visit here, told reporters. Despite worries that a thawing Arctic could set off a “Great Game” among powers seeking to carve out their slice of undersea riches, experts here say that under the Law of the Sea only five countries can lay claim to most of it.
They are Russia, which has about half the Arctic coastline, Canada, Norway, Denmark and the United States. Each has a coastline on the Arctic giving it exclusive economic rights to all undersea resources going out 200 nautical miles. Beyond that limit, they can lay claim to the rights to the seabed as far as the continental shelf extends from their territory. Afp – 6/1/2012
COMMENT: In January, 2012 President Obama claimed that the USA has 100 Years of Natural Gas available, but that was false, and estimates claim that the Natural Gas reserves amount to not more than 11 to 21 years of supply. Now we have the $900 Trillion Oil Treasure in the Arctic, but what is the actual oil deposit in terms of Billions of Barrels and the actual recovery rate, and how valid is the $900 Trillion figure?
On May 2, 2006 in Washington, D.C., the Saudi Petroleum and Minerals Minister Ali Ibrahim al-Naimi stated that there are at least 14 Trillion Barrels of oil reserves left. Last year in 2011, there were only 7 Trillion Barrels of Oil left, but on June 22, 2012, now we have only 5 Trillion Barrels of oil left. The entire world and our government are being fed invalid information about our livelihood and survival.
Whatever happened to all the other huge oil reserves (oil shale) that were claimed to exist in the USA, Canada and the Gulf of Mexico, et cetera? If this were real, then it would obviously be great and change somewhat our economy and unemployment problems, but also cause increased global climate problems. It is true that there are some very large oil deposits in the Arctic, but the problems are the extraction costs and valid, actual oil recovery operations. All this will change the $900 Trillion Oil Treasure dramatically, and unfortunately the price of oil and gasoline will still remain very high. My Hydrogen Energy Regeneration Processes and Systems will regardless remain the most valuable energy resources that are available to replace fossil fuels for the global economy.
USGS ASESSMENT OF WORLD OIL/GAS RESERVES
APRIL 18, 2012 – U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVAY
By: David Gregorio – Reuters
Regions outside the United States hold 20 percent more untapped conventional natural gas and about 13 percent less oil than previously estimated. The latest world petroleum assessment about 5,606 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable conventional natural gas is still undiscovered around the world, excluding the United States.
The USGS lowered its estimate of untapped world oil resources from 649 bb to 565 billion barrels (20%) in the 2000 report. The assessment did not include unconventional fuel sources of shale oil, gas and oil sands. Advances in drilling technology are dramatically raising U.S. oil and gas output.
The Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 almost caused a nuclear war. I researched for a method to reduce a nuclear war which contained a combined stockpile of about 30,000 nuclear bombs. A small jet plane for commercial and defense use would be most useful to defuse another nuclear crisis. The global oil reserves were insufficient in 1963 and my research for a substitute of oil led me to hydrogen in the oceans which contained 11% hydrogen, and the global lakes and rivers contained 10% hydrogen.
Then the hydrogen could be enhanced with various organic and inorganic chemical components and elements to produce highly combustible reactions. These intense chemical reactions provided more than sufficient energy to include regeneration of these chemical components and elements in a closed loop processing system. The next step of research was to concentrate on how much and how long the organic and inorganic components and elements could be effectively regenerated. Some of the organic and inorganic components and elements are being consumed and used up by the continuous regeneration process within a closed loop processing system. Different chemical formulas can be used for a multitude of different energy applications such as for high speed, high torque output and many light power requirements for most commercial and general public applications.
Atomic and nuclear power was primarily developed for wars and for the annihilation of large amounts of people, and we should not allow hydrogen to become another tool for mass annihilation. Even the “peaceful” use of nuclear power plants is a major health threat to the population of many countries.
The many problems and crisis’ we have today can be corrected if we dispose of our discriminatory attitudes, extremism, superiority attitudes, and we need to reject the imposed psychological programming tactics by greedy and corrupt corporations and governments. This needs to be done if we anticipate a wholesome and gratifying future for the United States and this Planet. We are all unquestionably a part of the global community and global population. Therefore we have to become accustomed to this reality and to our future global environment. We are not alone on this planet.
Climate Change Is A National Security Threat
Say 15 Military Leaders
Republicans in Congress are attempting to prevent the military from purchasing alternative fuels, which Senator Inhofe (R-OK) believes are merely “perpetrating President Obama’s global warming fantasies and his war on affordable energy.” And conservative media are backing the attacks on climate change and clean energy programs, suggesting that these investments come at the expense of national security. But experts across the political spectrum agree that climate change poses a serious threat to our national security, and that transitioning to alternative energy will enhance military effectiveness. Here are 15 current and former national security officials in their own words on the threat of climate change:
• Thomas Fingar, former chairman of President Bush’s National Intelligence Council: “We judge global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for US national security interests over the next 20 years … We judge that the most significant impact for the United States will be indirect and result from climate-driven effects on many other countries and their potential to seriously affect US national security interests.”
• Brig. General Steven Anderson, USA (Ret.), former Chief of Logistics under General Petraeus and a self-described “conservative Republican”: “Our oil addiction, I believe, is our greatest threat to our national security. Not just foreign oil but oil in general. Because I believe that in CO2 emissions and climate change and the instability that that all drives, I think that that increases the likelihood there will be conflicts in which American soldiers are going to have to fight and die somewhere.”
• Leon Panetta, Secretary of Defense: “[T]he area of climate change has a dramatic impact on national security: rising sea levels, to severe droughts, to the melting of the polar caps, to more frequent and devastating natural disasters all raise demand for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.”
• Robert Gates, former Secretary of Defense: “Over the next 20 years and more, certain pressures-population, energy, climate, economic, environmental-could combine with rapid cultural, social, and technological change to produce new sources of deprivation, rage, and instability.”
• General Gordon Sullivan, USA (Ret.), former Army chief of staff: “Climate change is a national security issue. We found that climate instability will lead to instability in geopolitics and impact American military operations around the world.”
• Vice Admiral Dennis McGinn, USN (Ret.): “If the destabilizing effects of climate change go unchecked, we can expect more frequent, widespread, and intense failed state scenarios creating large scale humanitarian disasters and higher potential for conflict and terrorism … The Department of Defense and national intelligence communities recognize this clear link between climate change, national security, and instability and have begun strategic plans and programs to both mitigate and adapt to the most likely and serious effects in key areas around the globe.”
• General Anthony Zinni, USMC (Ret.), former Commander-in-Chief of U.S. Central Command and special envoy to Israel and Palestine under President George W. Bush: “It’s not hard to make the connection between climate change and instability, or climate change and terrorism.”
• Admiral Joseph Lopez, USN (Ret.): “Climate change will provide the conditions that will extend the war on terror.”
• General Chuck Wald, USAF (Ret.), former Deputy Commander of U.S. European Command under President George W. Bush: “People can say what they want to about whether they think climate change is manmade or not, but there’s a problem there and the military is going to be a part of the solution. It’s a national security issue because it affects the stability of certain places in the world.”
• Brig. General Bob Barnes, USA (Ret.): “While most people associate global warming with droughts, rising sea levels, declining food production, species extinction and habitat destruction, fewer connect these impacts to increasing instability around the globe and the resulting threats to our national security. But the connection – and the threat it poses – is real and growing.”
• Vice Admiral Richard Truly, USN (Ret.), former NASA administrator: “The stresses that climate change will put on our national security will be different than any we’ve dealt with in the past.”
• General Paul Kern, USA (Ret.), Commander of the United States Army Materiel Command under President George W. Bush: “Military planning should view climate change as a threat to the balance of energy access, water supplies, and a healthy environment, and it should require a response.’
• Lt. General Lawrence Farrell, USAF (Ret.): “The planning we do that goes into organizing, training, and equipping our military considers all the risks that we may face. And one of the risks we see right now is climate change.”
• Admiral John Nathman, USN (Ret.), former Commander of the U.S. Fleet Forces Command under President George W. Bush: “There are serious risks to doing nothing about climate change. We can pay now or we’re going to pay a whole lot later. The U.S. has a unique opportunity to become energy independent, protect our national security and boost our economy while reducing our carbon footprint. We’ve been a model of success for the rest of the world in the past and now we must lead the way on climate change.”
• Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (Ret.): “The national security community is rightly worried about climate change because of the magnitude of its expected impacts around the globe, even in our own country … Climate change poses a clear and present danger to the United States of America. But if we respond appropriately, I believe we will enhance our security, not simply by averting the worst climate change impacts, but by spurring a new energy revolution.”
The Pentagon recognizes that our dependence on oil is problematic not only because of the threat of climate change, but also because of volatile oil prices and supply disruptions that can threaten the military’s energy supply. It’s Operational Energy Strategy states:
The volatility of oil prices will continue to be a budgetary challenge for the
Department, and the realities of global oil markets mean a disruption of oil
supplies is plausible and increasingly likely in the coming decades. The Services
have already taken steps to certify aircraft, ships, tactical vehicles, and support equipment to use alternative liquid fuels, a prudent insurance policy against future
E-MAIL TO PRESIDENT OBAMA AND VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN – JANUARY 30, 2011
Again as of January 30, 2012, I am awaiting an appropriate response, which is to state that the “illegal” funding of Hydrogen Regeneration is permanently suspended by the Dept. of Energy, and that I am being provided the necessary federal funding for the development, manufacturing and management of my proposed Hydrogen Energy Regeneration Processes and Systems.
In advance, I wish to thank you Mr. President Obama and Mr. Vice President Biden for your efforts towards the nationwide usage of my Hydrogen Energy Regeneration Processes and Systems.
E-MAIL TO PRESIDENT OBAMA AND
VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN – JANUARY 17, 2011
As no response was received, I submitted another e-mail to President Obama and Vice President Biden, titled: “ELECTION, ENERGY & ECONOMIC PROBLEMS,” on January 17, 2012, and included various comments, such as: “Chasing some reportedly 200 to 400 Taliban in Afghanistan and chasing another 600 Taliban in Pakistan with our 120,000 soldiers and “Blackwater” mercenaries will become a devastating election issue to the democrats.”
The French economist Olivier Rech researched global energy for the International Energy Agency and he stated that “at present consumption, the oil will be gone in less than 30 years.” – End. My comment: “Some oil producing countries are not renewing oil production contracts any more, and it can be expected that oil exports will be stopped altogether by any remaining oil producing countries within 15 to 20 years.”
My Hydrogen Energy Regeneration Processes and Systems are the ultimate and only viable energy technology and resources for the future, as I have frequently disclosed to our government since the 1960’s, but our government refused to fund my research, but now our government is illegally funding hydrogen regeneration research to universities, laboratories, and corporations on December 12, 2011, and are violating proprietary ownership laws. About two (2) years ago, the Dept. of Energy stated that “to convert from fossil fuel to a new energy resource would require Trillions of Dollars.”
RESPONSE FROM PRESIDENT OBAMA – JANUARY 24, 2012
Manfred —
I’m heading to Capitol Hill soon to deliver my third State of the Union address.
Before I go, I want to say thanks for everything you’re doing.
Tonight, we set the tone for the year ahead. I’m going to lay out in concrete terms the path we need to take as a country if we want an economy that works for everyone and rewards hard work and responsibility.
I’m glad to know you’ll be standing with me up there.
Barack
This email was sent to: manfred5@canby.com
IS THERE REALLY 100 YEARS’ WORTH OF NATURAL GAS BENEATH THE UNITED STATES?
By Chris Nelder|Posted Thursday, Dec. 29, 2011, at 6:37 AM ET
A SHALE-GAS DRILLING RIG
Christopher Furlong/Getty Images.
The recent press about the potential of shale gas would have you believe that America is now sitting on a 100-year supply of natural gas. It’s a “game-changer.” A “golden age of gas” awaits, one in which the United States will be energy independent, even exporting gas to the rest of the world, upending our current energy-importing situation.
The data, however, tell a very different story. Between the demonstrable gas reserves, and the potential resources blared in the headlines, lies an enormous gulf of uncertainty.
The claim of a 100-year supply originated with a report released in April 2011 by the Potential Gas Committee, an organization of petroleum engineers and geoscientists. President and Chairman Larry Gring works with Third Day Energy LLC, a company based in Austin, Texas, that is engaged in acquiring and exploiting oil and gas properties along the Texas Gulf Coast.* Chairman of the Board Darrell Pierce is a vice president of DCP Midstream LLC, a natural-gas production, processing, and marketing company based in Denver. The report’s contributors are from the industry-supported Colorado School of Mines. In short, the Potential Gas Committee report is not an impartial assessment of resources.
Its website consists of a single press release announcing the April report, with a link to a brief summary slide deck. A more detailed slide deck issued by the committee presents some optimistic estimates of potential resources, including a “future gas supply” estimate of 2,170 trillion cubic feet (tcf). At the 2010 rate of American consumption—about 24 tcf per year—that would be a 95-year supply of gas, which apparently has been rounded up to 100 years.
But what is that estimate based upon? Those details haven’t been made freely available to the public, but their summary breaks it down as follows here and in the graph below: 273 tcf are “proved reserves,” meaning that it is believed to exist, and to be commercially producible at a 10 percent discount rate. That conforms with the data of the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
An additional 536.6 tcf are classified as “probable” from existing fields, meaning that they have some expectation that the gas exists in known formations, but it has not been proven to exist and is not certain to be technically recoverable. An additional 687.7 tcf is “possible” from new fields, meaning that the gas might exist in new fields that have not yet been discovered.
A further 518.3 tcf are “speculative,” which means exactly that. A final 176 tcf are claimed for coalbed gas, which is gas trapped in coal formations. (Note: The PGC reports the total for probable, possible, and speculative coalbed gas as 158.6 tcf, but adding up their numbers for each category, we find the correct total is 157.7 tcf.
We haven’t been able to reach the PGC to discuss the discrepancy. Adding the 18.6 tcf of proved coalbed gas reserves reported by the EIA in 2009—the most recent data it offers—to the 157.7 gives a total of 176.3 tcf for all categories of coalbed gas.
By the same logic, you can claim to be a multibillionaire, including all your “probable, possible, and speculative resources.”
Assuming that the United States continues to use about 24 tcf per annum, then, only an 11-year supply of natural gas is certain. The other 89 years’ worth has not yet been shown to exist or to be recoverable.
Even that comparably modest estimate of 11 years’ supply may be optimistic. Those 273 tcf are located in reserves that are undrilled, but are adjacent to drilled tracts where gas has been produced. Due to large lateral differences in the geology of shale plays, production can vary considerably from adjacent wells.
The EIA uses a different methodology to arrive at its resource calculations, offering a range of estimates. In the most optimistic, “high shale resource case,” it estimates there are 1,230 tcf in the “estimated unproved technically recoverable resource base.” It also offers several production forecasts through 2035, ranging from 827 tcf in their Reference case, to 423 tcf in their Low case—one-fourth the headline number. In the Low case, which certainly could be correct, the EIA says the United States could once again become a net natural-gas importer by 2035.
One complicating factor here is recoverability, because we are never able to extract all of an oil or gas resource. For oil, a 35 percent recovery factor is considered excellent. But recovery factors for shale gas are highly variable, due to the varied geology of the source rocks. Even if we assume a very optimistic 50 percent recovery factor for the 550 tcf of probable gas (536.6 tcf from shale gas plus 13.4 tcf from coalbed gas), that would still only amount to 225 tcf, or a 10-year supply. That plus the 11-year supply of proved reserves would last the United States just 21 years, at current rates of consumption.
Natural-gas proponents aren’t advocating current rates of consumption, however. They would like to see more than 2 million 18-wheelers converted to natural gas, in order to reduce our dependence on oil imports from unfriendly countries. They also advocate switching a substantial part of our power generation from coal to gas, in order to reduce carbon emissions. Were we to do those things, that 21-year supply could quickly shrink to a 10-year supply, yet those same advocates never adjust their years of supply estimates accordingly.
The truly devilish details of supply forecasts, however, rest in the production models of shale-gas operators.
Arthur Berman, a Houston-based petroleum geologist and energy sector consultant, along with petroleum engineer Lynn Pittinger, has long been skeptical of the claims about shale gas. Their detailed, independent work on the economics of shale-gas production suggests that not only are the reserves claims overstated, but that the productivity of the wells is, too.
The problems begin with the historical production data, which is limited. The Barnett Shale in Texas is the only shale formation, or “play,” with a significant history. The first vertical well was drilled in 1982, but it wasn’t until the advent of horizontal drilling in 2003 that production really took off. By horizontally drilling and then “fracking” the rock with a pressurized slurry of water, chemicals, and “proppants” (particulates that hold open the fractures), operators kicked off the shale-gas revolution. Drilling exploded in the Barnett from about 3,000 wells in 2003 to more than 9,000 today. Thus we have a reasonably good data set for the Barnett. Data from the Fayetteville Shale in Arkansas are also reasonably substantial, dating back to 2004 and including roughly 4,000 wells. The data on the Haynesville Shale in Louisiana are minimal, dating to late 2007 and including fewer than 2,000 wells. The historical data for the rest of the major shale-gas plays—the Marcellus, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Woodford—along with a handful of other smaller plays, are too recent and sparse to permit accurate modeling of their production profiles.
After mathematically modeling the actual production of thousands of wells in the Barnett, Fayetteville, and Haynesville Shales, Berman found that operators had significantly exaggerated their claims. Reserves appear to be overstated by more than 100 percent.
Typically, the core 10 to 15 percent of a shale formation’s gas is commercially viable. The rest may or may not be—we don’t know at this point. Yet the industry has calculated the potentially recoverable gas as if 100 percent of the plays were equally productive.
The claimed lifetime productivity, or estimated ultimate recovery, of individual wells was also overstated, Berman found. The production decline curves modeled by well operators predict that production will fall steeply at first, followed by a long, flattened tail of production. Berman’s analysis found a better fit with a model in which production falls steeply for the first 10 to 15 months, followed by an more weakly hyperbolic decline. Shale-gas wells typically pay out over one-half their total lifetime production in the first year. So operators must keep drilling continuously to maintain a flat rate of overall production.
Berman concludes that the average lifetime of a Barnett well might be as little as 12 years, instead of the 50 years claimed by operators, and the estimated ultimate recovery from individual wells might be one-half what is claimed. We will only know which models are correct after another five to 10 years for the Barnett, and more than a decade for the newer plays.
Other issues Berman identified include artificially inflating the average well productivity numbers by dropping played-out wells from their calculations; improperly including production data from restimulated wells as if it owed to the initial well completions; and intermixing data from older and newer wells without aligning the data by vintage, giving the impression of significantly higher-than-actual production overall.
Multiplying the error, operators seem to have applied their overly optimistic models of these older shale plays to newer plays, which may have radically different geological characteristics and might not be nearly as productive. For example, the lifetime output of Barnett wells may never be matched by wells in the Marcellus.
The EIA makes reference to all of these issues in its assessment of the prospects for shale gas, noting that “there is a high degree of uncertainty around the projection, starting with the estimated size of the technically recoverable shale gas resource,” and that “the estimates embody many assumptions that might prove to be untrue in the long term.” Yet none of these issues are properly accounted for in the official financial statements of the operators.
An example of how inflated initial resource claims can be, and how they can be sharply cut, presented itself in August with a new assessment of the Marcellus shale by the U.S. Geological Survey. It offered a range of estimates, from 43 tcf at 95 percent probability, to 84 tcf at 50 percent probability, to 114 tcf at 5 percent probability. (Not surprisingly, the 95 percent probable estimates have proven historically to be closest to the mark.) Only five months earlier, the EIA speculated in its Annual Energy Outlook 2011 that the Marcellus might have an “estimated technically recoverable resource base of about 400 trillion cubic feet.” The USGS reassessment had slashed the estimate for the Marcellus by 80 percent. Similar adjustments may be ahead for other shale plays.
In addition to the uncertainty about shale gas resources and productivity, there are other lingering questions. For one thing, on an averaged annual basis, shale gas has been unprofitable since 2008. Wildcatters—those who explore and sink the first wells in a new location—have been taking on a great deal of debt and risk to discover the plays and produce them at a loss, in hopes that larger, well-funded players will buy them out later. It’s not clear that this gamble will ever pay off.
The other major concern, of course, is about environmental contamination from fracking operations. It seems to me that the vast majority of shale-gas operations are as environmentally benign as the rest of the oil and gas industry’s operations, although some bad actors have, through negligence or outright irresponsibility, caused actual contamination. For now, though, the jury is out on the overall safety of shale gas production.
I am not anti-gas; neither is Berman. What concerns him, and me, are the overblown claims about the potential for shale gas and the poor quality of both technical and financial information about its production. We don’t yet know how much of the estimated gas resources will be economically recoverable or whether the projected production rates for some wells might be off by a factor of 10. We might have a 100-year supply of gas, or we might have an 11-year supply. We might realize economic and environmental benefits by transitioning trucking and coal-fired power generation to natural gas, or we might do so only to find ourselves out on a limb far more economically dangerous than the current peak and impending decline of world oil supply. We simply don’t know, and we may not know for years to come.
This article arises from Future Tense, a collaboration among Arizona State University, the New America Foundation, and Slate. Future Tense explores the ways emerging technologies affect society, policy, and culture. To read more, visit the Future Tense blog and the Future Tense home page. You can also follow us on Twitter.
Chris Nelder, the co-author of Profit From the Peak and Investing in Renewable Energy, is an energy analyst and journalist. He blogs at http://www.getreallist.com and can be found at @nelderini on Twitter. END
Any other energy resources are insignificant to meet future global energy demands and needs. Ocean waters contain 11% Hydrogen, and the Hydrogen is processed and then used within my closed loop regeneration systems for most hydrogen energy regeneration applications and are installed inside cars, trucks, trains, ships, buses, electric power plants, chemical plants, manufacturing plants, schools, hospitals, buildings and houses, et cetera. Hydrogen can be regenerated and reprocessed numerous times within a closed loop chemical reaction process system. Hydrogen Energy Regeneration Processes and Systems can develop a new era in human history and a new era for future generations.
ENERGY RESOURCES
BY: ARNOLD VINETTE, OTTAWA, CANADA – 20/02/2012
The United States only has 7 years left of their domestic oil supplies at current production rates.
The United States consumes 18.7 million barrels of oil a day.
The United States produces 9 million barrels of oil a day. (Exhaustion in 2019)
The United States imports 9.7 million barrels of oil a day.
Between the years 2015 and 2019 the United States needs to find an additional 9 to 11.3 million barrels of oil a day to maintain their current oil based economy.
Only Iran and Russia have the oil reserves that the United States needs after 2019.
65% of European countries deplete their oil reserves by 2020.
85% of European countries deplete their oil reserves by 2030.
By the year 2030 the oil civilization we enjoy today will be over based on current worldwide oil reservoir depletion.
Worldwide Peak oil was reached in June 2006.
Arnold Vinette
Ottawa, Canada
arnoldvinette@yahoo.com
30 YEAR GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY
Olivier Rech, a French economist researched global energy for the IEA and he stated that global oil supplies are around 900 billion barrels, and at present consumption, the oil will be gone in less than 30 years. END – Some oil producing countries are not renewing oil production contracts any more, and it can be expected that oil exports will be stopped altogether by any remaining oil producing countries within 15 to 20 years. The Oil Producing Countries will soon be facing energy problems as well.
E-MAILS TO PRESIDENT OBAMA, VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN AND THE WHITE HOUSE CABINET – December 27, 2011
President Obama and Vice President Biden on December 27, 2011 were e-mailed respective copies to White House departments on Economy, Energy, Environment, Homeland Security, Science and Technology, Transportation, The Administration, and Help with a Federal Agency, and contained: “The U.S. government and the Dept. of Energy do not own my research of hydrogen energy and hydrogen energy regeneration processes and systems, because I consistently requested research and development funding from the government. The federal funding of my disclosed hydrogen energy and regeneration processes and systems by the government and Dept. of Energy to universities, laboratories, companies and corporations without my approval is clearly illegal, amounts to stealing my research and to bypass my legal ownership rights and intellectual property rights.”
“It becomes obvious that we need to reverse our present course and we need to focus upon solutions and worthwhile technological research and development that will bring about a speedy reversal toward a promising future for the population of the United States and for this planet.” “My comprehensive listing of products will generate huge economic benefits and progress for the United States, as I have previously disclosed to President Clinton in September, 1996, please see http://www.MZ-Energy.com.”
“Thank you for reading my proposed energy and global climate change solutions, and I kindly request an answer and the necessary and appropriate federal funding again.”
CLIMATE CHANGE, MIGRATION, AND CONFLICT
COMPLEX CRISIS SCENARIOS IN THE 21st CENTURY
By Michael Werz, Laura Conley, Center for American Progress |January 3, 2012
The costs and consequences of climate change on our world will define the 21st century. Even if nations across our planet were to take immediate steps to rein in carbon emissions—an unlikely prospect—a warmer climate is inevitable. As the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, noted in 2007, human-created “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.” – End (2011 Climate Damages – USA $52 Billion, WORLD $380 Billion)
As these ill effects progress they will have serious implications for U.S. national security interests as well as global stability—extending from the sustainability of coastal military installations to the stability of nations that lack the resources, good governance, and resiliency needed to respond to the many adverse consequences of climate change. And as these effects accelerate, the stress will impact human migration and conflict around the world. The growing evidence of links between climate change, migration, and conflicts raise plenty of reasons for concern.
Climate change also poses distinct challenges to U.S. national security. Recent intelligence reports and war games, including some conducted by the U.S. Department of Defense, conclude that over the next two or three decades, vulnerable regions (particularly sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, South and Southeast Asia) will face the prospect of food shortages, water crises, and catastrophic flooding driven by climate change.
Yahoo news reports that Russian scientists have discovered “hundreds of plumes of methane gas, some 1,000 meters in diameter (3281 feet in diameter), bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean.” Igor Semiletov of the Russian Academy of Sciences told the UK Independent that thousands more of these giant gurgling methane pots could be lurking in the ice between the Russian mainland and the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. – END
As the global climate changes, one of the clearest manifestations of the change is in the disappearance or shrinking of the glaciers in the Himalayan mountain range. These glaciers provide fresh water to 40 percent (about 2.8 billion people) of the Earth’s population and their disappearance could be devastating. In the last 30 years, glaciers in the Himalayas have shrunk by as much as 20 percent, according to the latest research.
South American glaciers that provide critical drinking water are retreating faster than expected, and meltwater discharge is also decreasing.
This means that the millions of people in the region who depend on the water for electricity, agriculture and drinking water could soon face serious problems because of reduced water supplies, according to a team of researchers who have closely monitored the glaciers in the northern Andes.
The glaciers in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca are shrinking about 1 percent per year, and that percentage is increasing steadily, according to McGill University doctoral student Michel Baraer. They are currently shrinking by about one per cent a year, and that percentage is increasing steadily, according to his calculations.
As a result, the volume of water discharging from the glaciers into the Rio Santa in Northern Peru could drop by as much as 30 percent during the dry season.
“Where scientists once believed that they had 10 to 20 years to adapt to reduced runoff, that time is now up,” said Baraer. “For almost all the watersheds we have studied, we have good evidence that we have passed peak water.” END
The world’s human population is spewing nearly 1.5 times the amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than it did 20 years ago, according to new data released in conjunction with the U.N. Climate Conference in Durban, Africa.
And with little apparent chance of an international agreement emerging to significantly curb the pollution, experts fear dangerous climate change is now almost certain. The report predicts that greenhouse gas emissions are likely to continue increasing at a rate of about 3 percent per year. – END
Present global carbon dioxide emissions are at 391 parts per million (ppm), then 3 percent (2.3ppm) per year would generate an additional 30% in 10 years, and would amount to a total of 414 parts per million by 2021. With a nominal acceleration of carbon dioxide, it is possible that carbon dioxide emissions and methane from human emissions, melting tundra, permafrost and melting of frozen methane on the ocean floor can reach 440 ppm in 2031. We have serious problems, unless measures are taken to contain and/or reduce carbon dioxide and methane emissions. For additional climate and energy research information please see my website: http://www.MZ-Energy.com
Greenland was ice-free a long time ago when carbon dioxide reached 400 ppm (about 450,000 years ago) therefore it can be assumed that when or if our planet reaches about 414 ppm between 2021 and 2025, then we would have a most severe and runaway global climate catastrophe in progress. This becomes a logical conclusion with the induced rise in global temperatures, but this needs to be researched further.
Recent discoveries have confirmed scientists’ longstanding fears that global warming would catalyze the release of millions of tons of potential greenhouse gas emissions locked up in ice and permafrost in the great white north.
Layer after layer of plant debris that has not yet decomposed lies trapped in arctic and subarctic permafrost. As global temperatures rise and this perennial ice begins to melt, previously frozen organic matter will thaw out and decompose, releasing huge quantities of greenhouse gases into our already saturated atmosphere
This may not seem like such an earth-shattering phenomenon, but scientists are deeply troubled since there’s a strong chance that methane (CH4) will be released – as it does in anaerobic wetland conditions – which does not bode well for planetary warming since it is 21 times more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide (CO2).
Nearly 1/4 of the northern hemisphere is underlain by permafrost that contains twice as much carbon as the entire atmosphere, wrote The New York Times. This amounts to nearly 2 trillion tons of carbon in soils of the northern regions, 88 percent of which is “locked in permafrost,” according to Canadian scientist Charles Tarnocai and colleagues.
The New York Times reports:
But those calculations were deliberately cautious. A recent survey drew on the expertise of 41 permafrost scientists to offer more informal projections. They estimated that if human fossil-fuel burning remained high and the planet warmed sharply, the gases from permafrost could eventually equal 35 percent of today’s annual human emissions.
Meanwhile, Yahoo news reports that Russian scientists have discovered “hundreds of plumes of methane gas, some 1,000 meters in diameter (3281 feet in diameter), bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean.” Igor Semiletov of the Russian Academy of Sciences told the UK Independent that thousands more of these giant gurgling methane pots could be lurking in the ice between the Russian mainland and the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.
Having more heat-trapping greenhouse gases in our atmosphere will exacerbate many of the climate change problems we are already beginning to face, include rising temperatures, biodiversity loss, drought and famine, water scarcity, and an upsurge in the expense and intensity of certain natural disasters.
But here’s the good news: if we can scale back human-caused carbon emissions and therefore reduce the rate at which the planet is heating up, most researchers believe we can slow down the rate at which this methane will be released into the atmosphere.
New York Times, Yahoo News
The US military has been looking into peak oil for a number of years and warned in a 2010 Joint Forces Command report that “By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day.” (US Energy Info. Administration – 2010 oil consumption was 19.14 million barrels/day – 2015 the oil shortfall of 10 million barrels per day means a reduction to 9.14 million barrels per day.)
HIMALAYAN MOUNTAIN GLACIERS
SHOW SIGNS OF GLOBAL WARMING
Published 20 December, 2011 01:36:00 Here & Now
The Main Rongbuk Glacier, pictured in 1921, has been steadily losing ice and snow until the glacier is now barely more than a stream of ice down the valley.
As the global climate changes, one of the clearest manifestations of the change is in the disappearance or shrinking of the glaciers in the Himalayan mountain range. These glaciers provide fresh water to 40 percent (about 2.8 billion people) of the Earth’s population and their disappearance could be devastating. In the last 30 years, glaciers in the Himalayas have shrunk by as much as 20 percent, according to the latest research.
The International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, based in Nepal, drew that conclusion after conducting what is believed to be the most comprehensive study ever of Himalayan ice melting. The findings concern David Breashears, a mountaineer, filmmaker, and executive director and founder of the non-profit Glacierworks.
“These glaciers provide the first pulse of fresh, pure water into big river systems…either in the Himalayan Range or on the Tibetan Plateau. The water that these glaciers provide runs into people’s fields, it’s people’s drinking water, it’s water used for industry,” Breashears said.
And those river systems provide the primary clean water supply for almost 40 percent (about 2.8 billion people) of the Earth’s population, spread between China, India, Pakistan and several other, smaller countries in the area.
Breashears recently completed an expedition to the Himalayas, where he brought along old photographs taken by some of the earliest climbers in the region.
“The glacier I was looking at was unfamiliar to the glacier in the old photograph,” he said. “It was complete devastation. Lakes were forming on it. It had melted vertically over the height of a 30-35 story building.”
Breashears said he was shocked to see lakes, large ones, formed on top of what had once been rivers of ice. He’s taken new photographs, matched them with the old ones and he’s taken them on exhibition to show just how the world is changing. “It’s irrefutable,” he said.
GLOBAL WARMING:
GLACIAL RUNOFF WARNING IN ANDES
Posted on December 21, 2011 by Bob Berwyn
Alpamayo, in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca.
Not much time left to adapt to reduced runoff, scientists warn
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — South American glaciers that provide critical drinking water are retreating faster than expected, and meltwater discharge is also decreasing.
This means that the millions of people in the region who depend on the water for electricity, agriculture and drinking water could soon face serious problems because of reduced water supplies, according to a team of researchers who have closely monitoring the glaciers in the northern Andes.
The glaciers in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca are shrinking about 1 percent per year, and that percentage is increasing steadily, according to McGill University doctoral student Michel Baraer. They are currently shrinking by about one per cent a year, and that percentage is increasing steadily, according to his calculations.
“When a glacier starts to retreat, at some point you reach a plateau and from this point onwards, you have a decrease in the discharge of melt water from the glacier,” said Baraer.
As a result, the volume of water discharging from the glaciers into the Rio Santa in Northern Peru could drop by as much as 30 percent during the dry season.
“Where scientists once believed that they had 10 to 20 years to adapt to reduced runoff, that time is now up,” said Baraer. “For almost all the watersheds we have studied, we have good evidence that we have passed peak water.”
HYDROGEN ENERGY REGENERATION,
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY DEPLETION
BY: MANFRED ZYSK, M.E. – DECEMBER 10, 2011
PUBLICATION IS AUTHORIZED
The global industrialization era was created primarily from oil, coal, natural gas, hydro power, nuclear power and with human ingenuity. Naturally, the fossil fuel corporations, energy organizations, industries, governments and countries want to continue this industrial evolution, but unfortunately the energy resources are being consumed and depleted by the growing world population at a fast pace.
When the global energy resources are consumed or become scarce and depleted, then the costs of all sustainable goods, food and products become expensive or ultimately unavailable to the public, and most energy companies and energy organizations also cease to exist. Unfortunately, this is inevitable and only a matter of time, unless a new energy resource replaces depleting fossil fuel.
But with human ingenuity, our survival instinct and with technological evolution, we can survive when we recognize and understand our survival vulnerabilities that the human race is facing. This means that technology and adequate financial support has to be applied into lasting energy and into natural resources that remain in abundance and are readily available worldwide.
Hydrogen gas can be processed from the oceans which contain 11% hydrogen. Then the hydrogen can be regenerated multiple times in closed loop chemical reaction processes and systems which are installed in cars, trucks, transportation systems and electric power plants. Depending upon the type of various hydrogen energy chemical reaction components and elements, hydrogen can be regenerated many times over for specific purposes such as for desired continuous long time span usage, travel distance, and/or heavy torque power output applications.
Hydrogen energy regeneration processes and systems can supply adequate energy for cars, trucks, transportation and most energy applications for the global population and for several centuries. The use of hydrogen will significantly reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and pollutants that cause global climate changes, particularly when hydrogen regeneration processes and systems are used instead of fossil fuel and from coal in electric power plants. The processed ocean water is potable (drinkable) and can be used for agriculture and food production.
The carbon dioxide that is captured from the use of coal or coke to produce metals and steel in steel mills and foundries can be converted into useful fertilizers for agriculture worldwide and to grow food and trees in semi-desert regions.
Esthetic, elegant and complete vacuum chamber concrete panel home construction for housing, stores, factories, offices and all types of buildings will reduce energy consumption, would reduce maintenance costs, would last much longer than wood construction and could eliminate the destruction of forests worldwide.
The destruction and consumption of forests for wood products and for building houses is alarming. Forests are extremely important for absorbing carbon dioxide and for producing oxygen. New and efficient types of cement plants and lime plants will reduce energy consumption, and reduce carbon dioxide, mercury emissions and other pollutants which contribute to global climate changes.
To change over to new industries globally would require substantial amounts of money and a number of years in a sagging global economy. All these products are most important for energy efficiency and to control carbon dioxide emissions and the damaging effects of global climate changes.
The present Conference of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change in Durban, South Africa is again being subjected to dissention and ridicule by several oil producing and coal consuming countries and the news media. The United States is dragging down the entire climate change process, putting 20 years of progress at risk and committing the world to a terrifying two-degree increase in global temperature, the Climate Action Network said at their daily COP17 media briefing. The negligence and consequences can generate substantial global starvation. As fossil fuel becomes consumed and scarce without having a substitute energy resource in place for replacement of fossil fuel, then obviously an economic collapse is eminent. Global starvation is possible when governments are controlled by corporations and industries which do not make responsible economic decisions or future economic planning for the national economy. Wars in the Mid-East over oil will not produce total USA control over the oil fields, and as a result the overall supply of oil only becomes more limited, scarce and costly to the American public.
Severe climate caused by global warming forces food prices up putting the world’s poorest people at risk, warns Oxfam. The warning comes in the wake of people in the drought-hit Horn of Africa and Afghanistan facing food shortages due to sky- rocketing prices of wheat, sorghum and maize.
Oxfam said soaring prices threatened food security, and pushed poor people into hunger and poverty, since they require a larger proportion of their income on feeding themselves and their families.
Extreme weather conditions such as the 2010 drought, heat wave and fires in Russia pushed global grain prices by up to 85 per cent, and this year’s monsoon floods in South East Asia increased the price of rice by between 19 per cent and 30 per cent in Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand.
“From the Horn of Africa and South East Asia to Russia and Afghanistan, a year of floods, droughts and extreme heat has helped push tens of millions of people into hunger and poverty,” Kelly Dent, of Oxfam, said.
“This will only get worse as climate change gathers pace and agriculture feels the heat. Governments must act now in Durban to protect our food supply and save millions from slipping into hunger and poverty,” she added.
Oxfam also called on Durban climate talk participants to ratify a legally-binding climate change deal and said governments must take measures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to counter global warming.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report had earlier said global warming impacts were already being experienced through rising temperatures. Crop yields are declining in most parts of the world.
The 2011drought in Mexico is worst in 70 years. About 1.7 million cattle have died of starvation and thirst and the Mexican government is trucking water to 1,500 villages and is sending food to poor farmers who have lost all their crops across the nation. Scarce rainfall has dried up drinking water to 2.5 million people. Texas has endured the driest year on record in the last 116 years, and crop and livestock losses amounted to $5.2 billion. This has become very serious to the economy of the USA, and cannot simply be ignored much longer.
NEW ZEALAND FOCUS INTO GLOBAL
OIL DEPLETION AND PEAK OIL
Denis Tegg – Wednesday, December 7, 2011 (Condensed)
SAUDI ARABIA LIMITS OIL SUPPLY
The International Energy Agency has again warned that the high oil price could strangle hopes for a global economic recovery. It also says that 90% of future growth in oil production has to come from the Mid-East, mostly from Saudi Arabia. Without a $100 billion annual investment in that region, oil prices will exceed $150 a barrel. But Saudi Arabia has just announced it is halting its $100 billion oil expansion program? This does not compute. The oil price is strangling economic “recovery.”
The IEA’s Fatih Birol said the world economy was in a more fragile state now than during the crisis of 2008-2009. 2011 has been a record year for oil with Brent crude at its highest-ever average above $110 per barrel. This is the highest annual oil price since 1864, during the American Civil War.
Birol said Europe was especially at risk from the high oil price, but that it could also turn into a major problem for energy-hungry Asia. “It is a major risk for the slowdown of the economic growth in Asian countries which were the countries which brought us out of the financial crisis in 2008,” said Birol. With New Zealand so reliant on China, and the rest of Asia, the implications for us are huge.
LACK OF INVESTMENT OR LACK OF OIL?
The immediate future of oil production is seen as one of adequate investment. The IEA says that the Middle East and North Africa will need at least $100 billion a year in new investment for the foreseeable future even in a place where oil is still cheap to exploit. The problem, however, is that the rising expectations of Arab Spring is rapidly shifting oil revenues from investment in more oil production to the kinds of social spending that will keep people happy and out of the streets.
In the closest the IEA comes to predicting peak oil, Birol says that without major increases in investment (an increasingly unlikely occurrence), Middle Eastern oil production will fall sharply leading to oil prices in excess of $150 a barrel – until of course demand slumps from the high prices.
Meanwhile in the same week as the IEA was stating 90% of future oil production must come from the Mid-East, Saudi Arabia announced that it is halting its $100bn oil expansion programme, claiming that the requirement for the kingdom to increase production has “substantially reduced” in the face of emerging new oil and gas supplies.
“Has the Kingdom already reached peak production capacity as it struggles to replace depleting supplies? Is this a case of budgetary priorities shifting as Saudi moves spending to social programmes to avoid contagion of unrest from neighbouring countries? ”
THIS DOES NOT COMPUTE
Who is wrong? My pick is that Saudi Arabia is the emperor with no clothes, or in this case with no extra oil to pump. It cannot yet admit that it is close to its maximum production capacity, and is using the much hyped development of unconventional oil in the US and Canada as a convenient excuse .
But if the Saudi production stalls out at present levels, while the IEA warns we rely on them and other Mid East producers for 90% of future production then obviously something does not compute.
The only realistic conclusion is that oil prices will stay high and move even higher until the global economy falls back into recession or even depression and chokes off demand. And a recession/depression could be coming to an economy near you, sooner than you imagine.
CRUDE OIL ‘FAR FROM DEPLETED’
December 8, 2011 at 01:59pm
Doha – The world will one day run out of oil, but that is of little concern to delegates at the World Petroleum Congress in Doha whose eyes are fixed on more crude discoveries and advances to prolong supplies.