The views expressed in this post are those of the author alone.
This assessment is based on the data in the 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy available here. As such it uses that review’s definition of oil which is crude and condensate and natural gas liquids, uncompensated for their different energy contents or values of refined product components.
(Click to enlarge)
Figure 1: World Oil Production 1990 – 2017
This analysis was prompted by a chart by Ovi showing that Non-OPEC production less Russia, Canada and the United States has been in decline since 2004. That decline rate is 0.25 million barrels/day/annum. It had previously risen strongly from 1990.
(Click to enlarge)
Figure 2: Production Rate Change 2007 – 2016
The United States LTO patch is widely credited with having caused the oil price collapse of 2014. American production had risen by six million barrels per day since 2007. The United States was not alone with four other countries totaling six million barrels per day of production increase. Iraq and Saudi Arabia contributed two million barrels per day each with Russia and Canada contributing one million barrels per day each.
(Click to enlarge)
Figure 3: World Oil Consumption 1990 – 2016
OECD consumption has been flat even as OECD countries have had an increase in GDP.
(Click to enlarge)
Figure 4: Where the Oil Went
The fall of non-OECD consumption from 1990 to 1996 was due to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Since then consumption growth has been steady at about 835,000 barrels/day/annum. Chinese consumption growth was 240,000 barrels/day/annum up to 2002 and then steepened to 512,000 barrels/day/annum since. OECD consumption growth was strong up to 2007 and then demand contracted due to higher oil prices. From here it looks like OECD consumption has plateaued. China may have also plateaued. Non-OECD consumption is likely to continue rising with a large part of that being due to India.
(Click to enlarge)
Figure 5: World Oil Production from 1990 with a Projection to 2025
This projection is based on U.S. conventional production resuming long term decline and U.S. LTO production continuing to climb, driven by the Permian Basin. Russian production is in a long plateau. Canadian production continues its slow, capital-intensive climb. Other non-OPEC production continues its established decline of 0.25 million barrels/day/year. Iraqi production rises by 2.0 million barrels/day to 2025. It could be higher than that. Other OPEC production had risen by 3.0 million barrels/day from 2000 to 2005, in response to the lifting of production restrictions, and has been in a plateau since. The projection assumes a decline of 0.3 million barrels/day/year.
The projection shows a gap of about eight million barrels per day by 2025 relative to the established growth rate indicated by the dashed line. This could largely be filled if Permian Basin production ramps up faster than projected and Iraqi production growth ramps up faster than projected now that their civil war is over.
In summary, the market is likely to remain in balance and sustained price excursions are unlikely.
By Peak Oil Barrel
OilPrice.com
baha on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 9:20 am
The recent tax cuts are supposed to lead to economic growth, which leads to growth in energy demand…Oops, nevermind 🙂
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 9:28 am
Dennis is a fucking idiot who believes in driver less cars and EV’S…He blocked me for posting articles talking about the Saudi’s and IEA warning about oil shortages in a few years…He is a fake peak oiler
Cloggie on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 9:37 am
Indian government goes offshore. Orders 5 GW windpark!
Danish, German and Indian companies likely to be the hired developers.
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/12/25/india-plans-5-gigawatt-offshore-wind-auction-2018/
Cloggie on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 9:54 am
Oh-la-la. Roosevelt was overheard as early as in februari 1939 that he was lusting after the Rhine river as America’s new frontier (it became the Elbe river)
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/26/roosevelt-6-feb-1939-rhine-river-us-frontier/
Note that little mouse Dave will NEVER even provide a single link to a document…. because that would draw him in a discussion he tries to avoid like the plague.
Outcast_Searcher on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 9:57 am
Heaven forbid someone block Mastermind for posting like the f***ing idiot he calls others who don’t agree with his endless short term collapse meme, even when it’s proven wrong time after time.
Maybe if he’s post something more based on, say, data or trends and with less childish name calling, etc?
Outcast_Searcher on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 10:02 am
Meanwhile, the data/projection here don’t look unreasonable given reality. And anyone claiming EV’s aren’t a reality is delusional. The only debate is how quickly they will grow market share — and there’s plenty of room for serious debate there.
There’s more and more evidence that the vast majority of pure ICE’s can go away in the first world over the next decade or so to HEV’s and some PHEV’s, if the first world wants to get serious about AGW. Obviously pure BEV’s will take a lot longer but a few decades is a long time, and as the technology and efficiency and economics of BEV’s continue to advance, their case will make itself, in time.
Davy on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 10:26 am
The debate on how quickly or if EV’s grow market share is a huge debate but it is more than if we want it then it will be built. The debate is also can EV’s growth happen economically. I have seen nothing indicating we can do all the techno miracles spoken about here by the optimist. Will the economy allow all these huge investments when the global economy is already very dysfunctional.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 10:29 am
Davy EV’S are a fad..and even if they knock off some oil demand the price of oil will go lower and people who use oil will buy more of it and the demand will go right back up..And there are only around 86 million garages for around 250 million vehicles in America. And even less in Asia..So they will never be reasonable.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 10:31 am
Cloggie
Nobody cares about your stupid WW2 conspiracies..There is much bigger issues in the world these days than finding out what actually happened and who was at fault.
Davy on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 10:38 am
MM, EV’s and renewables have legitimacy. The question that needs to be the debate is “how much”. How far can their transformation be realized. Peak oil dynamics are only part of the debate. There is much more to this potential transformation than energy. We have policy and economics also to consider.
GregT on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 11:04 am
“Nobody cares about your stupid WW2 conspiracies..There is much bigger issues in the world these days than finding out what actually happened and who was at fault.”
Those who ignore history, are destined to repeat it.
rockman on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 11:13 am
Davy – Yes, EV’s have legitimacy…1 .5 million were sold in 2016. Just as ICE’s have legitimacy…84 million were sold in 2016. And there really is no valid debate with regards to “how much” IMHO. How much has happened in the recent past is a statistical fact. How much will happen in the future is unknown. Folks are free to predict what ever they want. But those are opinions. And there is no proof available to establish which opinions will prove correct. At least not yet. I’ve never understood these constant arguments over opinions. One can have a different opinion but no one can prove their opinion is correct any better then they can prove someone else’s is incorrect.
Only the passage of time can do that.
Davy on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 11:28 am
Rock, they have potential that is clear. Who knows what they will do is definitely a valid argument. There is too much yet to be realized. EV’s, especially are still a lot of talk. Wind and solar is another story.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 11:44 am
Davy
Wind and Solar produced less than 1 percent of total energy last year per IEA..And this is after 40 years of development and over a trillion dollars spent (wasted)… They are a scam and they are not efficient enough to run our society on..And they cause blackouts and raise your energy prices to the highest in the world. Which runs off your factories like it did with a BMW plant in Germany.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 11:46 am
Davy
EV’S do not have potential. They can’t even make a profit on any of them. And Tesla is headed for bankruptcy. When that happens it will be the end of the stupid crappy electric car.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 11:47 am
Greg
Shut the hell up you stupid jew bashing hick..
GregT on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 11:51 am
“Shut the hell up you stupid jew bashing hick..”
Back to your usual nastiness and immaturity. Act your age, or go away.
Not all Jews are Zionists, and not all Zionists are Jews.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 12:11 pm
Greg
Just admit it you are jealous of the jews because they are more intelligent than you and wealthier..You are just a stupid Canadian hick hillbilly. Now go back to slapping your sister/wife…EHHHH!
Davy on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 12:22 pm
“They are a scam and they are not efficient enough to run our society on”
That may be true but they are a legitimate extender of our current status quo. They are a valid addition to anyone’s prep effort. I have invested in solar with battery backup on the farm. The fact we cannot run society on them does not mean they will not help us in the coming collapse process. The fact that in a collapse they may be taken from us or become unusable because parts might not be available is not a good argument either. We don’t know what a collapse will look like and anyone claiming they know the nature of the coming collapse is reaching way too far into the unknown. We do not know how this huge global world will come apart and we do not know when.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 12:41 pm
Davy
Yes we do. Once the economy collapses everything shuts down the end…Grids go down, nuke plants meltdown and explode and its every man for himself. Just try to imagine your worst nightmare come true..If I were you I would have an exit plan..If ya know what I mean!
Davy on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 1:06 pm
“Once the economy collapses everything shuts down the end…Grids go down, nuke plants meltdown and explode and its every man for himself…… Just try to imagine your worst nightmare come true..If I were you I would have an exit plan..If ya know what I mean!”
That is one obvious possibility and it is the easiest to understand. Surely you are smarter than defaulting to the easiest to understand scenario. If you want to get more sophisticated then you will want to look deeper into the when, where, how, and the timeline of duration and the impact of degree. Many of us here have been through the phases of collapse awareness. Many of your references you regularly link are reports we have read way back when they came out. Total collapse is easy to understand. I am beyond imagining the worst nightmare stuff. I have been doing that now for years. I am more interested in the subtleties of what is between the here and now and those worst nightmares you so cavalierly speak of. To me it is unimaginative to immediately default to the worst. Even if I have only 6 months at the farm and my efforts have all given out so be it. Those 6 months will be special. Can you put a time value on life? What I am doing is an intellectual and academic activity of the study of the collapse of civilization. It is my life passion. I enjoy what I am doing and I want to try to teach others what I have learned. I only want to offer someone else this knowledge if they find it useful. I am not trying to act superior. I have been humbled far too many times to act superior. To constantly make a possible collapse into a scary real life joyride into the hell gets redundant. It is much more mature to look at the challenges ahead and organize and prepare now. If nothing else determine you can’t organize or don’t want to. The main issues with collapse is acceptance and the humility of the exposure each and every one of us have to an end.
onlooker on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 1:31 pm
Economic Collapse by definition will be uneven reflecting both real time decisions of the all involved. And also the geo-political and military pre-maneuvers on the part of countries and other large important sectors and entities. Also it will depend on the current overall economic/political/social status of countries and regions. So uneven both in time and space
GregT on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 1:49 pm
“Just admit it you are jealous of the jews because they are more intelligent than you and wealthier..You are just a stupid Canadian hick hillbilly. Now go back to slapping your sister/wife…EHHHH!”
If you are as smart as you say that you are, then why the need to act out like a childish simpleton? Do you somehow get a rise out of making yourself look stupid?
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 3:37 pm
Davy and Onlooker
Simple really….when the World Economy Collapses everything shuts down…the end….we’re talking about grids and JIT systems down all over the world and 7.5B people dropping like f*** flies in short order…The collapse will be absolutely horrible..There is no collapse or horror movie ever produced that has even come close to imagining what the collapse of BAU might look like. I’m talking about every corporation and every social program going bankrupt at once.I’m talking about people eating people. I’m talking about the Worst Catastrophe to ever happen in the history of mankind. Nothing has ever, or will ever come close.
GregT on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 3:48 pm
“I’m talking about people eating people. I’m talking about the Worst Catastrophe to ever happen in the history of mankind. Nothing has ever, or will ever come close.”
Hard to disagree with that. So what are your plans? Are you going to be an eater, or one of the eated?
Cloggie on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 3:57 pm
“I’m talking about the Worst Catastrophe to ever happen in the history of mankind. Nothing has ever, or will ever come close.”
That sounds real serious millimind. And that’s all because of peek oil? And now we are all going to die because we run out of oil in a couple of years? Who would have thought! Thank God we have you around to explain difficult stuff to us.
#DramaQueen
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 4:15 pm
Cloggie
UC Davis Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives (Malyshkina, 2010)
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q
University of Chicago Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117
Oops did I just ruin you renewable s delusions? LOL did I do that?
GregT on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 4:27 pm
MM,
We’re all gonna die.
Suck it up, buttercup.
Cloggie on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 4:41 pm
“UC Davis Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives (Malyshkina, 2010)”
Millimind had this irritating habit of relying on completely obsolete, no doubt “peer reviewed”, studies from 2010, like this German Army study or, God forbid, Richy Heinberg, where in 2017 not even Heinberg takes Heinberg-2010 serious anymore.
Spare me your 2010 UC Davis study.
This is almost 2018. Renewables prices collapsed, offshore tenders no longer cost tax euros, the entire world minus one unspecified slow lane country has signed the Paris Accords, in Europe 90% of new capacity is renewable (US still an admirable 60%). Renewable innovation proceeds with breakneck speed. In other words, unless you are a bored drama queen sensationalist like millimind, everybody with a sorry excuse of a brain could figure out that at least “the West” will have a renewable energy base in a couple of decades.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 4:44 pm
Cloggie
How much energy did solar and wind provide last year? I know the answer I just want to hear you say it…I’ll be waiting..LOL
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 4:45 pm
CLogg
what about the other study from 2016 is that fresh enough for ya big guy?
Cloggie on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 5:06 pm
“How much energy did solar and wind provide last year? I know the answer I just want to hear you say it…I’ll be waiting..LOL”
Give me that alleged IEA 1% link.
But I understand your despair millimind:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/18/technology/china-us-clean-energy-solar-farm/index.html
“China is crushing the U.S. in renewable energy”
This is what CNN said earlier this year. Where people like you, davy and apneaman love to talk themselves into the grave with their incessant impotent doom talk, others simply press ahead with what needs to be done.
GregT on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 5:11 pm
MM,
There is an entire field of mental healthcare professionals, who focus specifically on helping people cope with life’s difficulties.
You really should consider paying one a visit.
http://www.apa.org
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 5:27 pm
Cloggie
Here is the chart
https://imgur.com/a/svCyF
What energy transition you idiot..And sharing CNN propaganda is laughable..You stupid person…
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 5:30 pm
Gregt
You are the one who is a ant Semitic. Maybe you should listen to your own advice you dumb hick…Or why dont you go throw another log on the fire to warm up your fat old lady..LOL I know your wife is fat too because all hicks loves fucking fat woman..lol
Makati1 on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 5:31 pm
MM has a problem with real world facts and observations from those who do not have a piece of paper from some snowflake academy. He has been brainwashed into not being able to think for himself, but to rely on
“paid for” studies that have been “peer reviewed” by like thinking ivory tower idiots. By the time they get published they are history, at best, and proved wrong at least.
The world is heading for a new reality. Or, should I say: “The world is in a new reality”. A financial crash or even a collapse of globalization will be bad, but not the end. Billions will adjust and move on. Maybe a billion or so will die. The most developed countries will suffer the most because they have lost the ability to survive. JIT systems. Chemical dependency. Complacency. Denial.
The final curtain will be later in the century when climate change takes care of the surviving humans. At the currant rate of change acceleration, I don’t see any humans alive by 2100. That is, IF we don’t do something really stupid like a nuclear exchange/war first.
Makati1 on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 5:35 pm
Greg, MM reverts to his childish rants when cornered. If that is how they “educate” in college these days, then the US is totally lost. But then, it is anyway. Between Davy and MM, it’s difficult to tell who is in most need of psychiatric assistance.
Davy on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 5:40 pm
Shut up Mad Kat, you are the very last one to whine about facts. You are one continuous distortion of the truth.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 5:49 pm
Madkat
I argue with Science and you argue with fake news like zerohedge,burning platform, etc…And you mock things like the peer review process that helps make studies accurate..You are so dumb and deluded.. You are way to dumb for college and science…That is why you are so jealous of others.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 5:50 pm
Madkat you worked for the Mormon church talk about snow flakes..LOL
Makati1 on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 6:08 pm
MM, you don’t argue, you rant like a grade school bully on the playground. And, in a forum, it is supposed to be debating, not rants. You and Davy make it into an argument because you are both arrogant and cannot accept anything that doesn’t meet your qualifications. Well, from my many years and experience in this crazy world, I know you will both lose to reality every time. And that $x$ is gonna drive you both to your knees. Be patient. It is coming.
You and Davy should share a room at the funny farm. You both need help for similar reasons.
GregT on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 6:12 pm
MM,
In a few years time, the world is going to come to an end. Instead of waiting for the goons to show up and eat you alive, why not take matters into your own hands? At the very least, it would spare the rest of us from having to listen to your constant whining and sobbing.
Davy on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 6:13 pm
mad kat, you proselytize a concocted emotional agenda that is a personal vendetta. You push hate into the discussions and you cause general discontent. You are the biggest reason this board is so polarized. Whenever you are away the volatility quiets down. I guess you do this because you are in need of attention. DISGUSTING
twocats on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 6:18 pm
“OECD consumption growth was strong up to 2007 and then demand contracted due to higher oil prices. From here it looks like OECD consumption has plateaued. China may have also plateaued. Non-OECD consumption is likely to continue rising with a large part of that being due to India.”
This article wasn’t written by Dennis, it was a guest post by David Archibald.
The above quote is a good example of how unfocused this article is. China may have plateaued? Really? You get that from Figure 4?
And the article was supposed to be about price actions, and he basically says “nothing to see here.” Unconvincing.
Makati1 on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 6:36 pm
Davy, I post my comments without ref to you or MM, but you both cannot help yourselves. You HAVE to reply with putdowns, name calling and bullshit. That indicates a mental problem. Yours, not mine.
I enjoy intelligent debate. I learn new things daily. But when someone attacks ME, not the FACTS, then it gets personal. It indicates a lack of education or an open mind (or worse) on the part of the attacker.
If I recall correctly, YOU started it with your childish name calling and ranting long ago. You can end it. I will post whatever I choose to on here. You can chose to ignore it. Simple, isn’t it?
Davy on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 6:42 pm
mad kat, you peddle hate that polarizes. You are an extremist magnet. You are most often off topic and your links are generally empty. You are lucky if you can write a paragraph of useful information to support a debate. Most of the time you block debate by going off topic with anti-American regurgitate. You are a disgusting example of a selfish old man looking for attention. FRAUD
MASTERMIND on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 7:11 pm
GregT and Madkat
How am I whining and sobbing? I am not at all. I have a plan its called a bullet to the brain when the collapse happens. I have warned everyone I care about in my life..Even though that was futile..But when the time comes I will feel no remorse..I only post mainstream news articles and scientific scholarly references. If that is not good enough then I am sorry. Because science is the best method we currently have. And to be honest I understand why you two want to prepp and become preppers. The reason is its just so un natural to give up and do nothing. I mean if you know a tornado is coming you want to go into the basement or board up your windows. But when it comes to this collapse that is coming nothing will save you…
GregT on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 8:06 pm
“I have a plan its called a bullet to the brain when the collapse happens.”
Make sure to hang a sign on your front door, to let us goons know that there’s fresh meat inside. It’d be a shame to let your carcass go to waste.
Makati1 on Tue, 26th Dec 2017 9:43 pm
MM, you attack like a junk yard dog. Don’t give me the “I only post mainstream news articles and scientific scholarly references,” bullshit.
Might I quote you: “You are so dumb and deluded.. You are way to dumb for college and science” (See above comment at 5:49 PM.
BTW: It is … “way TOO dumb …”
Get help.
Jan on Thu, 28th Dec 2017 6:13 am
31/12/2016 were installed around 500 GW wind and 300 GW solar PV worlwide.
Annual production is 2,2kWh/W by wind and 1,1 kWh/W by solar PV which correspond to 10 days oil production.
But we should remember that if we transfer thermal energy of oil to electric or mechanical energy, the efficency will be approximately 1/3.
So we can say that “new” reneweable energy (solar+wind) replace today 1 month oil pumping.
During 2017 were added around 100 GW solar and 50 GW wind power.