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Page added on March 21, 2015
Texas RRC Report and Other Peak Oil News
The Texas Rail Road Commission has released its latest stats with production numbers through January. There is always a delay in these numbers and that is why you see the production graph lines seem to droop toward the recent months. Because of this I post six months data so the data can be compared in order to gain a better insight into which way production is heading.
All Texas oil and gas data is through January. The Oil data is in barrels per day and the gas data is in MCF.
Texas condensate will likely show a small gain when the data is finally in. Either way it will not be enough to make much difference in the final C+C January production.
I believe Texas crude only will be down in January. This shows a huge decline from the December incomplete data. The EIA data is through December only.
That is a huge difference between the December and January incomplete data, a decline of 166,000 barrels per day. Of course that will very likely tighten up when, over the coming few months but there just should not be that kind of difference. Obviously there was a huge increase in December production but I think Texas January production will be a huge shock to the EIA as well as the investing crowd.
It looks like Texas associated gas also took a huge hit in January. This makes sense. If crude oil production was down then the gas that comes up with the oil should be down also. The raw data was down 433,628 MCF from the December raw numbers.
Texas gas well gas was down a huge amount also. The raw numbers were down 650,182 MCF from the December raw numbers.
Texas total gas, raw data, was down 1,082,810 MCF from the raw data in December.
Obviously all this data is incomplete. But relatively the same percentage of companies were reporting their data for January as were for December. Therefore the raw numbers should give some indication of which way production is headed. At any rate shale oil production did not “continue to surge upward” as the EIA and IEA originally reported. They just had to make a huge mistake in their calculations.
I expect total US C+C production to be down in January. I won’t say how much but I believe the numbers will not be positive.
This chart was published on Art Berman’s Blog, which is the best blog on the net dealing with shale oil and gas. The data however is from the EIA. Where JODI has US production down 34,000 bpd in January, the EIA has US production up 60,000 bpd in January.
This is one of Art Berman’s charts also. I find it interesting in that it tells us how much oil comes from horizontal wells and how much comes from other wells. I worked the percentages out. For the Permian it’s 55% horizontal, Eagle ford is 99.7% horizontal and the Bakken is 99.8% horizontal or wells. The rest comes from vertical wells.
A couple of new sites you might want to check out. There is very little current data that comes out of Eagle Ford but occasionally this site has some interesting news: Eagle Ford Fix. And this one is most definitely worth the effort though it is updated only once a month. But it gives you a very good idea of which way rigs and production are trending: Drilling Info Index.
The Drilling Info Index gives the amount of “New Oil” that comes on line in the US each month. This is (apparently) before legacy decline. Anyhow here are their numbers and I have calculated the rate of increase or decline for each month. Their archives only goes back months 6 months and they get a different percentage change than I do. The fourth column is the number of barrels per day change according to the EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly. The “New Oil” below is in thousand barrels per day.
The Petroleum Supply Monthly is, by far, the EIA’s most accurate production survey. It comes out a couple of days before the end of the month. The next issue will be out March 30th with the January production numbers.
The Baker Hughes Rig Count is out.
Texas again took the biggest hit, down 36 rigs in one week. Williston is at 99. This does not count the rigs that are in the process of moving in and rigging up. Canada was down another 80 rigs. This is the season for rigs to drop in Canada but nevertheless they are down 249 rigs from the same point last year.
7 Comments on "Texas RRC Report and Other Peak Oil News"
Plantagenet on Sat, 21st Mar 2015 7:16 am
So far so good. But much bigger drops in oil production are needed to end this oil glut.
Westexasfanclub on Sat, 21st Mar 2015 7:46 am
Plant, depletion in the rest of the world will do the rest. I can only see flat production or even an upward trend if the US and Iran immediately start a romance or the ISIS fighters convert to Christianity…
Otherwise, taking the data above as a basis, the world will peak in April or May.
If any of the above mentioned would happen only one or two years ahead it would be too late to avoid the WP because of depletion’s steady advance.
Henry Heck on Sat, 21st Mar 2015 10:13 am
The Eagle Ford yields a mix of oil, wet gas, and natural gas liquids. Over the last several years, there has been greater field separation of components that has led TX RRC to report not just the oil, casinghead condensate, and natural gas delivered to transmission lines, but all the other components that have been separated. Point is that beside the 3 million bpd of crude plus condensate, there is a million bpd of hydrocarbons stripped from the mix. There are no export restrictions on these seperated products. And some of the dry natural gas is reinjected back into wells in a cycling operation not actually making it to the gas transmission line.
rockman on Sat, 21st Mar 2015 11:01 am
And just a couple of reminders. Total C+C is a better stat IMHO because the TRRC classification of condensate is not a function of its API gravity. One well producing 40 API liquid could be counted as crude oil and another well producing the exact same liquid could be counted as condensate.
And what everyone should understand by now: the Jan 2015 production numbers represent wells drilled in the summer and fall of 2014. It will take until this summer to see the full impact of the rig count drop on the production stats. And late 2016 to see the greater impact should the rig count continue to drop into the summer.
Plantagenet on Sat, 21st Mar 2015 11:37 am
Yo Westaxas
I like your ideas of romance flowering between Obama and the Grand Ayatollah while IS converts to Christianity.
Other salutary events for the oil market might include Putin becoming transgendered, OPEC nations allowing verification of their claimed oil reserves, and all oil trains being forced to travel at 10 mph or slower.
MKohnen on Sat, 21st Mar 2015 2:05 pm
Yeah, IS should convert to Christianity because Christians are sooo much more peaceful. Wait, aren’t the US, Russia and the Ukraine predominantly Christian? Those are such peace loving countries. Bucking the trend, though, in Canada we have a fundamentalist Christian running the show, and he is far more war-mongering than previous, less pious Prime Ministers. We all know that if Russia doesn’t smarten up in the Ukraine and “get out”, Canada is going to march into Russia and school ’em good!
My preference… maybe IS will decide there is no god to fight for and just quit, along with the aforementioned Christian countries.
GregT on Sat, 21st Mar 2015 3:28 pm
In Canada, we are now being controlled by the Central bankers. Harper is nothing more than another puppet of the bankers.
“The Case to “Reinstate” the Bank of Canada”
“There is a very interesting legal case that is playing out in Canada at the moment. William Krehm, Anne Emmett, and Comer (The Committee for Monetary and Economic Reform: http://www.comer.org/) filed a lawsuit on December 12th, 2011, in Federal Court to try to force a restoration of the Bank of Canada to its mandated purposes.”
“TWO CANADIANS AND A CANADIAN ECONOMIC THINK TANK CONFRONT THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL POWERS IN THE CANADIAN FEDERAL COURT. THE CANADIANS PLEAD FOR DECLARATIONS THAT WOULD RESTORE THE USE OF THE BANK OF CANADA FOR THE BENEFIT OF CANADIANS AND REMOVE IT FROM THE CONTROL OF INTERNATIONAL PRIVATE ENTITIES WHOSE INTERESTS AND DIRECTIVES ARE PLACED ABOVE THE INTEREST OF CANADIANS AND THE PRIMACY OF THE CONSTITUTION OF CANADA”
“The Plaintiffs state that the defendants (officials) are unwittingly and /or wittingly, in varying degrees, knowledge and intent engaged in a conspiracy, along with the BIS, FSB, IMF to render impotent the Bank of Canada Act as well as Canadian sovereignty over financial, monetary, and socio-economic policy, and bypass the sovereign rule of Canada through its Parliament by means of banking and financial systems.”
“On the 26th of January, 2015, the latest appeal on behalf of the Crown to have the case dismissed was rejected by three judges in Federal Court in Toronto. The Federal government now has 60 days to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court. Cf. http://pressfortruth.ca/top-stories/update-bank-canada-vs-comer/. Interestingly enough, both the case itself and the various developments that have occured are not being covered at all by the mainstream media. While Mr. Galati’s other cases have regularly received wall-to-wall coverage across the country, this particular case, which he believes is probably his most important case to date, has so far been ignored. When questioned about this, Mr. Galati said that he has a firm basis for believing that the Canadian government has requested or ordered that the mainstream media not cover the case (he could not divulge his sources), and that, in his opinion, the government does control the media to a certain extent and on certain limited issues. He also added that he does not believe that we in Canada are living in a democracy. In fact, as far back as 1999, he has been on record as claiming that we have entered a ‘quiet dictatorship.'”
http://www.socred.org/blogs/view/the-case-to-reinstate-the-bank-of-canada