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Page added on March 23, 2016
Sudan will never recover earlier production levels
South Sudan’s oil ministry has concluded that oil production is in quick decline, and future production will not reach even half of its peak 2010 levels even if all the oil fields began pumping again, according to ministry documents seen by Radio Tamazuj.
South Sudan has developed oil reserves in Upper Nile and Unity states, but only fields in Upper Nile are currently producing due to insecurity in Unity state. Even if the Unity fields started production this year, oil production would quickly peak at no more than 175 thousand barrels per day, less than half of its peak annual average, 360 thousand barrels per day in 2009.
Production would then drop rapidly to less than 100 thousand bpd by 2021 and under 50 thousand bpd by 2026, if no new reserves are discovered and developed, according to production charts included inside South Sudan’s annual crude oil marketing report produced by the Ministry of Petroleum and Mining, dated June 2015.
Despite declining production, the report notes that South Sudan still owes Sudan $2 billion of the total $3 billion it agreed to transfer to Sudan in exchange for passage of its oil through a pipeline to Port Sudan on the Red Sea.
“As of the end of May 2015 the remaining balance on the Transitional Financial Arrangement obligation to Sudan is USD 2.02 billion,” said the marketing report.
On top of transit, transport, and processing fees, South Sudan agreed to pay an extra $15 a barrel to Sudan under the TFA, up to a total of $3.028 billion. The oil transit agreement between Sudan and South Sudan expires December 2016.
In total, South Sudan agreed to pay Sudan between $24.10 – $26 a barrel, which deprived South Sudan of almost all the value of its oil when oil prices plummeted last year.
South Sudan relies almost exclusively on its oil exports for hard currency, which it needs to import any goods, leading South Sudan to start paying Sudan in oil transfers instead of cash, starting in March 2015.
radiotamazuj.org/en/article/oil-ministry-south-sudan-will-never-recover-earlier-production-levels
11 Comments on "Sudan will never recover earlier production levels"
JuanP on Wed, 23rd Mar 2016 12:04 pm
One after the other, all countries will peak.
geopressure on Wed, 23rd Mar 2016 7:45 pm
The U.S. Government funded 150+Exploration wells in South Sudan…
We don’t know what was discovered, but it should be coming online at some point in late 2016, early 2017…
Young Sediments, High Flow Rates…
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This story has a twist… I think that Obama (himself – but through some other organization/entity) owns the concessions that these wells were drilled on…
I have no proof, just a strong hunch…
You remember that Sudanese kid who was arrested or something because his teacher thought his science project, a clock, was a bomb? Well, the kid’s dad was a Sudanese politician, Obama’s Dad was also Sudanese…
They all had a big sudanese party in the white house & Obama hired the kid to become a geologist & go help them get some Sudanese oil to market…
I think that Barry is in the oil Market… & whenever these 150 wells (the good ones) come online & start producing, that is when we’ll see prices spike…
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Wow, that last paragraph just occurred to me…
geopressure on Wed, 23rd Mar 2016 7:48 pm
The marine traffic Website has the Port of Sudan Activity filtered out so that it is not possible to monitor exports by watching tankers leave the port & looking up that specific tanker’s capacity – though you can do that with most any other port, except the Northern Persian Gulf, the filter there comes & goes so it can be really tricky…
antaris on Wed, 23rd Mar 2016 10:31 pm
Geo, I hope you have some good friends who can help you get back on your med’s.
twocats on Wed, 23rd Mar 2016 11:23 pm
antaris, geo is on a deep level of thought. I don’t know about meds but he is probably under some strain as I believe he has some skin in these games. I was a pretty god-awful trader, but when I did it the worst part wasn’t making or losing money, it was waking up at fucking three in the morning and wanting to run the numbers again. it’s a stressful life.
geopressure on Thu, 24th Mar 2016 7:26 am
Twocats… it’s all about the Options… I mean that is where it’s at…
Right now, buying Calls on Crude ETFs &/or Crude Producers is risky right now…
The KEY to trading, from my perspective is to figure out what the U.S. Government is planning – what their geopolitical strategy is… & buy Options that work with the Government…
They are so powerful, & they do not play by the rules, so if you bet against them, your world can come crashing down very fast…
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Right now, if you buy the right calls, & oil goes up to $75-$80 by Labor Day you can make about 50X the value of your investment… I believe the oil price is going higher than that…
geopressure on Thu, 24th Mar 2016 7:31 am
Everything about my life is tied to oil & gas… I’m not just financially invested in the industry… But my assets, my education, my skill sets, my hobbies, my proprietary knowledge – it is all related to the upstream oil & gas industry…
I don’t think that it is possible to be more thoroughly invested in one thing the way that I am…
But, that doesn’t really bother me… I wouldn’t have it any other way, actually…
geopressure on Thu, 24th Mar 2016 7:41 am
antaris
Thanks for the concern… I’m dating an MD… So Meds I have aplenty…
makati1 on Thu, 24th Mar 2016 8:02 am
Goe… I’m sorry that you have no future. You need to see a shrink or a priest and get ready for the end …
geopressure on Thu, 24th Mar 2016 8:04 am
I cannot find the video that i saw, but here is a link:
http://www.allenbwest.com/2015/10/look-who-clock-boy-visits-days-before-white-house-muslim-gala/
I distinctly recall Obama, Ahmed the Clock Boy, & Omar al-Bashir (The Butcher of Darfur) all kicking it in the White House… & I remember Obama trying to inspire the kid to pursue a career in petroleum geology so that they could use him in Sudan to find some oil…
I would bet $10K that Obama (or an agent of his) personally received some sort of interest in the Sudanese Concessions that the U.S. Government drilled >150 Exploration Wells on in 2015…
The Man is planning to buy a freaking NBA team as soon as his 2nd term ends… He’s got his fingers in all kinds of pies… The Blocking of the Keystone Pipeline… I wonder what Buffet is paying him for that??? 1/2 the revenue from Buffet’s crude-by-rail incomes???
geopressure on Thu, 24th Mar 2016 8:31 pm
I figured it out…
Sudan has no oil, but they get a whopping $25/BBL on all oil sent throughout their pipeline…
South Sudan Was making 360K BOPD, but has dwindled down to $150K BOPD because the Operators will not invest money when Sudan is getting all the revenue from the crude oil… Production would have continued to fall…
Then Obama’s Sudanese friend tells him about it… & Obama says “Hell, I’ll just have the U.S. Taxpayers fund a 150+ Well Drilling Campaign in 2015 & ramp the production back up to maximum pipeline capacity of 360K BOPD… & the United States asks for nothing in return, all I need is 10% of Sudan’s Revenues from the pipeline since I hooked you up – just a mere $2.50 per BBL…
By the end of the summer, Sudan will be bringing in $12 Million/year & then in January of 2017, the price per barrel has been renegotiated to a sliding scale which will be far more that $25/BBL at $100 Oil Prices, but it will protect the South Sudanese from low oil prices…
Case Closed…