Stuart Staniford: Libyan Oil Production

It looks like the Libyan revolutionaries have taken Tripoli:

Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s grip on power dissolved with astonishing speed on Monday as rebels marched into the capital and arrested two of his sons, while residents raucously celebrated the prospective end of his four-decade-old rule. Colonel Qaddafi’s precise whereabouts remained unknown and news reports said loyalist forces still held pockets of the city, stubbornly resisting the rebel advance.

In the central Green Square, the site of many manufactured rallies in support of Colonel Qaddafi, jubilant Libyans tore down posters of him and stomped on them. The rebel leadership announced that the elite presidential guard protecting the Libyan leader had surrendered and that their forces controlled many parts of the city, but not Colonel Qaddafi’s leadership compound.

Obviously this is excellent news for the Libyan people and it is devoutly to be hoped that they can now begin the long and difficult process of developing a more benevolent form of government that can stabilize the country and realize the aspirations of it’s people.

Any government is probably going to want to do something about the graph up top, which shows that Libyan oil production has now fallen almost to zero as of July.  The new state will need revenues and in Libya those must come primarily from oil.  It will probably take a number of months at best to restore sufficient order for the oil to begin flowing again.

When it does, that will help the global macroeconomy also.

Early Warning