Shocker, The World Is Depending On The USA to Save Us From Peak Oil

Everyone is going nuts over US tight oil production, known in some circles as shale oil. They point to the sudden rise in US oil production, then they extrapolate that into the future for several years and come to the conclusion that there will soon be a glut of crude oil on the market. Prices will collapse, or that is what everyone expects.  Prices right now are $104.60 per barrel for WTI. But prices futures prices for March 2016, 2.5 years from now are $85.70, almost $19 less. Everyone is expecting crude oil production to boom.

And who could blame them. Just look at what Non-OPEC production has done lately. Non-OPEC C+C peaked at just under 44 million barrels per day in December 2012 and in May stood at 43.681 mb/d. Crude oil is really booming.

The two EIA charts below are in kb/d and the last data points are May 2013.

But it has all been due to the boom in US tight oil production. Non-OPEC C+C production less USA production tells a different story.

And the EIA may just be a bit optimistic. JODI has slightly different numbers. The chart below is JODI Non-OPEC C+C in kb/d with the last data point as July 2013.

The increase in Non-OPEC production is not nearly as dramatic according to JODI. And when you look at Non-OPEC less USA production things look really alarming.

Subtracting US production Non-OPEC production is down over 2 million barrels per day since the last peak in November 2010.

Conclusion: Unless US shale oil keeps booming then world oil production, or at least Non-OPEC production, is due for a serious decline.

And, according to the Motley Fool, The World Needs 390 Billion Barrels of New Oil Production by 2035.

As you can see from the chart Other Liquids keeps rising slightly but C+C is dropping like a rock. But not to worry, US tight oil will take up the slack… Yeah Right.

Notice: This will be the last post for awhile. I am moving back to Pensacola Fl. and that will take me most a week. I have to get internet connections and all that. I will be approving comments until Tuesday morning then I will likely be out of pocket for a couple of days. Sorry but it could not be helped.

peak oil barrel

4 Comments on "Shocker, The World Is Depending On The USA to Save Us From Peak Oil"

actioncjackson on Mon, 23rd Sep 2013 1:26 pm 



Short but sweet.

shortonoil on Mon, 23rd Sep 2013 1:59 pm 



Conventional crude (API 30-45) powers the world’s transportation machinery; thus, the world’s economy. The greater majority of shale oil, perhaps 70%, is condensate (API > 45). It does not make transportation fuels; its primary use is as feed stock for other products. As conventional crude production falls, demand for feed stocks will fall. Shale oil is intrinsically linked to the production of conventional crude. The only thing shale oil will save us from is “Peak Plastic Cups”.

GregT on Mon, 23rd Sep 2013 4:16 pm 



“Shocker, The World Is Depending On The USA to Save Us From Peak Oil”

Even bigger SHOCKER, The World is in for a Great Deal of Disappointment.

IanC on Mon, 23rd Sep 2013 8:08 pm 



Sheesh – if this does not convince you that our current track is untenable, nothing will.