Along the King Fahd highway in downtown Riyadh, signs of the country’s wealth glitter and dazzle. Monuments include the massive Kingdom Centre – instantly recognisable by the giant bottle-opener feature formed by its two wings – and the beautiful and futuristic Faisaliyah building. New ones are still rising, like the King Abdullah financial district, still under construction: a reminder of the fat years of high oil revenues under the previous monarch.
On nearby Tahliya Street, lined with young Saudi men watching black-robed, headscarfed women saunter past, crowds throng into American-style shopping malls flaunting the world’s priciest and most luxurious brands.
Saudi wealth – whether in downtown Riyadh or Knightsbridge – is highly conspicuous. And they have the colossal Saudi Aramco oil corporation to thank for it.
Locals were stunned by the sudden news of the possible sale of part of the company that has been synonymous with their country’s history almost since its foundation. Uncertainty about exactly what it would mean has not been laid to rest by the cautious statement confirming the impending plan to float the business later issued from Aramco’s headquarters in the eastern province of Dammam.
There was also concern that news of the momentous decision was first aired in an interview given by the powerful deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, to foreign media. “Aramco is our spine and they suddenly announce this!” exclaimed Professor Fawziah al-Bakr, an education expert and women’s activist.
Aramco’s history is the story of the “discovery and development of the greatest energy reserves the world has ever known and the rapid transformation of Saudi Arabia from desert kingdom to modern nation state,” the company says. Its pledge has always been to “maximise the value of the country’s petroleum reserves for the benefit of the kingdom’s citizens”. Exactly how that will be done if foreign investors can buy shares is a troubling and unanswered question, say critics.
But a 75% plunge in global crude prices over the last 18 months to $30 per barrel – caused by a downturn in demand and a supply glut that Saudi Arabia and fellow Opec members have refused to address in their determination to drive US fracking rivals out of business – has caused financial pain to producing nations around the world, who had grown used to funding pretty much their entire economies and social programmes on black gold.
The Saudi budget deficit rocketed last year to 15% of gross domestic product and more than $100bn of the country’s $650bn of foreign reserves has already been used to fill up gaps left by depleted oil revenues.
The 2016 income and expenditure plan has involved a huge rise in the price of petrol, electricity and water along with a pledge to introduce a value added tax of 5%, together with tariffs on sugary drinks and tobacco.
The 60% increase in petrol prices – to 16p a litre – has shocked many Saudis but not all motorists. “Yes, the cost of petrol has gone up,” said a Bangladeshi taxi driver stuck on King Fahd highway. “But it is still probably the cheapest in the world.”
Mohammed, a Saudi government official, was more worried about future rises than this one. But the increase has triggered alarm, with some car owners rushing out the night before it took effect to fill their tanks and save the equivalent of a few pennies.
At least Saudis, who live in an autocratic state where free education and other social benefits have effectively been traded by unspoken compact for political freedom, are not alone. Last week, the neighbouring Gulf state of Bahrain, just off the coast of Saudi’s eastern province, also raised the price of fuel by 60% – for the first time in 33 years. Oman had already done the same.
The possible selloff of at least part of Aramco, previously considered the country’s crown jewel, has stunned the global energy and investment sectors as much as locals.
One Wall Street report claimed an American financial adviser was forced to stop his car because he was laughing so much from sheer incredulity when the Aramco float news broke. But plans for an initial public offering by what may be most secretive – but almost certainly the most valuable – company in the world have been confirmed by its chairman, Khalid al-Falih.
“We are considering … a listing of the main company and obviously the main company will include upstream,” he said last week, thereby indicating that the flotation plan could give access to the country’s 260bn barrels of oil reserves and 263 trillion cubic feet of gas.
Among the more than 100 oil and gas fields controlled by Aramco – which began life as the California-Arabian Standard Oil Company in 1933 – are Ghawar, the world’s largest onshore oil location, plus Safaniya, the biggest offshore field in the world.
The scale of the Aramco empire dwarfs every other corporation in the world. Its oil assets alone are 10 times more than those held by the world’s largest publicly quoted oil company, ExxonMobil. If the Texas-based business has a stock market value of $400bn, that would make Aramco’s oil assets potentially worth $4tn (£2.7tn).
Energy analysts admit they find it impossible to accurately calculate the exact worth of a company that boasts of producing 9.5m barrels of oil a day – one in every eight of the world’s production. But some estimates go as high as $10tn. That is 10 times the combined value of Apple and Alphabet (the new parent company of Google).
They know Aramco has huge oil and gas reserves, a raft of refineries and other business interests, but details are scant. The company does not publish its accounts or even its revenues, never mind its profits.
What is known about Aramco by anyone outside the company tends to come from bland information provided by its official websites or an annual review of “facts and figures” – the last one covering 2014.
You will find no mention of the flotation proposal on its website. The latest bit of news concerns what appears to be a low-key joint venture with a German chemical company called Lanxess. There is no date given for when it was announced, nor who to contact should one require more information.
A plan to float even a relatively small slice of the business would change all that. “You cannot take public funds (foreign investment) without sufficient operating and financial results being made available,” says Fadel Gheit, a veteran oil analyst with the Oppenheimer brokerage in New York.
“And you would not choose to float a company when commodity prices are so low. But the Saudis are clearly in need of money and part of it is their own fault. They ignored plenty of warnings that US shale production was on its way into the market. It is too late to stop that now.”
What Aramco’s annual review does say is that the company – alongside its mountainous oil and gas reserves – controls more than 3m barrels a day of refining capacity, both inside Saudi and abroad.
There are some joint refining ventures with foreign oil companies inside the Middle Eastern kingdom, such as the Saudi Aramco Shell Refinery Company, which operates a plant in Yanbu on the north-west Saudi coast with Royal Dutch Shell.
There are similar local refining partnerships with Exxon, Total of France and Sinopec of China, while Shell has the most substantial joint venture with Aramco outside Saudi in its Motiva Enterprises operation in the US.
More recently there have been moves to establish chemical plants at refineries through tie-ups with the likes of Dow Chemical of the US and Sumitomo Chemical of Japan. The American firm has a joint venture, Sadara, building a facility at Jubail while the Japanese are involved in a joint venture at the Petro Rabigh plant on the Red Sea.
In addition there are oil exploration agreements inside Saudi with Shell and for gas development with Russia’s Lukoil, Sinopec and a consortium of Italy’s ENI and Spain’s Repsol. Industry experts say these deals give very little real access to rich resources and have produced little of benefit to the foreign companies so far.
Aramco until recently owned a fleet of very large tankers to ship oil abroad through a separate subsidiary it established, called Vela International Marine. But the business – one of the biggest of its kind in the world and which still handles much of Saudi’s oil exports – was recently transferred to the ownership to the Saudi national shipping company.
Aramco continues to keep a network of international offices in locations such as Paris, the Hague and London. It also keeps a research base in Aberdeen, centre of UK North Sea activity.
The assumed wisdom about Aramco is that it is relatively well run but is used as a personal piggy bank by the ruling family as well as an income to fund government social and other policies. There are question marks over why the company is reported to be running four Boeing 747s and four other jets as well as a number of football stadiums around the country.
Aramco’s crude is especially attractive because it almost gushes out of the ground with barely the prod of a stick. Operating costs of $12 per barrel make it the cheapest in the world after Kuwait and five times cheaper than the UK North Sea.
Shell, Total and Sinopec would almost certainly look at taking a stake in any Aramco IPO for strategic reasons, but whether sovereign wealth funds or big western pension funds would queue for a stake is less certain at a time of low crude prices.
Gheit thinks they might, but traditional institutional investors would need to see audited financial information and know they would be able to pursue legal remedies in the event of a dispute.
Any float will ultimately come down to price and (royal) pride. But in the meantime expect to see western investment bankers, lawyers and PRs – who want a slice of what will be very lucrative advisory work in the run-up to any IPO – joining the queue on King Fahd highway.
THE COST OF FALLING PRICES
Standard Chartered last week issued the most gloomy forecast yet on the future price of oil: $10 a barrel. What impact would such a fall have on North Sea companies, the consumer and the economy?
OIL INDUSTRY
Up to 65,000 jobs have already been lost from the British offshore oil industry since the cost of crude fell from a peak of $115 per barrel in June 2014 to its latest level of $30. A further decline to $10 would clearly turn a cull into a massacre, not least because the North Sea is a high-cost place to operate, with the break-even price for many fields around $60.
Just last week BP unveiled plans to axe a further 4,000 jobs – most over the next 12 months – with 600 of them in Aberdeen. Shell has promised to cut 2,800 if, as expected, its merger with BG goes through in the next few weeks.
Around the world, 68 oil projects with a combined investment cost of $380bn have been dumped over the last year, according to Edinburgh-based global oil consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
Thirty-seven north American oil and gas producers have filed for bankruptcy, says Texas-based law firm Haynes and Boone, while analysts have warned half of US shale drillers could be out of business if the slump continues.
Dividend payments from Shell and others could be slashed if oil skids further and a major new round of takeovers would almost certainly begin. Sub-$10 oil in the late 1980s led to BP buying rival Amoco for $42bn and a series of other mega-mergers as companies sought to bulk up while cutting jobs and offices.
CONSUMERS
Motorists have already benefited from lower petrol prices, which are now below £1 a litre in some places – but they still do not reflect the true cost of supplies, and $10 oil would bring more benefits.
The last time that price was reached – during the height of the Asian financial crisis in 1998 – petrol prices fell to around 86p per litre. Oil companies argue that the vast majority of the petrol price is made up of taxes but a further collapse in crude values would produce a glut of cheap refined products and pressure to pass on cuts.
Many international gas contracts are also tied to oil prices, and wholesale prices have fallen by at least 30% over the last 18 months. These lower costs have not been fully passed onto householders. Energy regulator Ofgem said on Friday that the “big six” UK suppliers are overcharging “for the vast majority of people”.
Despite the growth in wind and solar for providing electricity, gas is still the key fuel for energy generation, whether in the home or the power station. Even without lower crude prices, there have been growing expectations that power prices will at least remain flat from now until the end of the decade.
THE ECONOMY
A fall in the oil price is the same as a tax cut for consumers. It means they have more to spend on other goods and services, though there is some evidence that UK car owners are spending some of their windfall on extra petrol as they increase the miles they drive.
A slump to in the oil price to $10 will not mean a big fall in pump prices because of the tax levied – but businesses will get a big lift from cheaper oil products. It cuts the cost of transport and there are also benefits from cheaper plastics, fertilisers and synthetic fabrics.
The downward pressure on inflation will persuade the Bank of England to keep interest rates lower for longer. That is bad news for savers, but good for mortgage payers and high-street spending.
The government’s hope will be that consumers spend more on goods and services produced by UK businesses, boosting growth. But Britain is an open economy, with trade accounting for around a third of economic activity, so if extra cash goes on imports it will widen the trade deficit.
Scotland will suffer as more oil firms pull out of North Sea production or lay off staff. From the Treasury’s point of view, the bad news is the big loss in tax revenues that inevitably follows, though this should be compensated by tax receipts from a higher growth rate.
Terry Macalister
markisha on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 12:16 pm
10 trillion that is nothing. We can print as much as needed
PRINT BABY Print
Pity we cant print oil
twocats on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 2:03 pm
markisha – well, we can and did. Total global central bank printing comes to about 15.5 trillion since 2008, and that’s just on the books. Who knows what the shadow banking world is doing.
shortonoil on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 2:17 pm
Saudi Arabia has 260 Gb of light sweet crude that gushes out of the ground for $12/ barrel, but they have to sell Aramaco because they need the money. How does one stop laughing long enough to write an article like that? That must be the mark of a true professional journalist?
JuanP on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 2:18 pm
My maternal grandfather taught me to buy low and sell high, and he made the family fortune much larger by doing that all his life. The Saudis would be doing exactly the opposite by selling now. I never had much respect for royal families, in general, and the Sauds, in particular. I do not believe in hereditary monarchies just like I don’t believe in democracy. Both political systems are incredibly ignorant, ineffective, and stupid, IMHO, and a clear sign of humanity’s lack of intelligence and common sense. Humanity deserves what it has coming.
Davy on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 2:27 pm
Folks you heard it straight from the pricks 1%er mouth and unashamed IMA. Pathetic
JuanP on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 2:53 pm
Davy, I am completely unashamed of my intelligence, knowledge, understanding, common sense, and education. Why should I be ashamed? Is that some Catholic guilt crap they fed you that makes you think like that? False modesty is a sign of pride in my book. I have never concealed what I am or concerned myself with what delusional fools like you might think of me. I have never needed or wanted anything from delusional fools like you in my whole life. I am perfectly satisfied with who I am and don’t mind coming across as an arrogant SOB if needed to defend the truth from liars like you.
shortonoil on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 3:11 pm
“The Saudis would be doing exactly the opposite by selling now.”
Maybe the Saudis have sold high, and are now selling low. We know that Ghawar is over 90% depleted. At some point it is time to pack up the camel, and head out of Dodge. Maybe they want to beat the afternoon beheadings, of which, they may soon be invited as honored guests. Their subjects may just be a little bit upset when they discover that the Royal family has blown through a few $trillion of the Kingdom’s money.
ghung on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 3:13 pm
Kids….. Kids!
[once again, Ghung shelves his comment and moves on]
Davy on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 3:13 pm
That’s fine Juan but you realize you are a hypocrite and a fake when you talk like you do. The reality is you are not that smart. You have this grandiosity about you that makes you think you are but it just “ain’t so”. I bet you walk the street like you own it. Juan do you have that way about you that signifies someone who thinks they are more than they are? We see it all the time today with prick 1%ers.
I think you have self confidence issues that stem from your severe depression. The changes that have taken place in the last 8 months probably means your off your meds. Juan are you self medicating the anger and depression? If so please leave my country we don’t need anymore mass shootings.
Davy on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 3:16 pm
Sorry G, with respect to you I will refrain from any further responses to you know who. The problem is there are 3 more who will have to have their time with me. I can’t guarantee anything later when the goons are out of their cage.
JuanP on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 3:54 pm
Davy, I made a very calculated, cold hearted decision after years of reflection to start attacking you. This is not some impulse or spur of the moment thing on my part. I read your comments here for a long time before posting my first comment on this forum. You are the reason I started posting comments here. I am trying to balance your lies.
Davy, it was your Mak attacks and attacks to all others you disagree with regarding your “issues” that made me join this forum community, something which goes against my nature because I am a very private and reserved person. I felt you were ruining the last place on this planet where I like the majority of the people. I love the people on this board, even the freaks are cool by me. I consider myself a freak. I tried for two years to reason with you in many different ways to no avail.
I have recently changed my tactical approach to the problem you represent after understanding that you are an incurable mental case and there is no point in trying to reason with you. From now on I will treat you like you treat others here. You will get back what you dish out threefold. I will not stop. If you want me to change, you have to change first because you are the one that started this.
Since I believe you are completely incapable of changing, I expect this to continue indefinitely.
And this comment is not an endorsement of Mak’s comments, but your reactions are always demeaning, offensive, disrespectful, and disproportionate. You are probably the worst person I have come across in my life.
Apneaman on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 4:26 pm
Davy, maybe the cage door would stay closed if you weren’t going out of you way to rattle it especially when some of the so called “goons” are sleeping. Folks been saying they are tiring of the fighting and you not only can’t or won’t stop, but you keep trying to drag them in on it. “Folks” look, look everyone how I’m being picked on, see? see?. Please be on my team and help me. I’ll feel better. Man up ya pussy assed bitch and fight your own fights. Fucking blubbering sissy. You thrive on it, so stop pretending otherwise and leave those who don’t want anything to with it alone. If they were on your “side” they would have said so long ago. If you want help why not pray or call the pope? Bed wetting homo.
Dredd on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 4:30 pm
ARAMCO was a child of those Europeans who discovered their oil under Arabian sands (The Universal Smedley – 2).
Scientists make mistakes too (Questionable Scientific Papers – 4).
Davy on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 4:45 pm
Ape turd, why is it you think you are so special Mr. Google queen? You have this tough guy persona but the reality is you live as a bum under mommies living room. If you think your talk is so special start your own turd blog. You act like you are the most popular guy on the board. Is it because you have zero friends and family except for mom?. Like Juan you come here for friends. What a low life.
You are slimmy Turd and you belong in a cage. Please regurgitate some of your library of outdated and redundant links and comments. Please enlighten me on cancer and rapacious Apes. Your contribution is getting stale can’t you see that.
The problem is you are too wrapped up in yourself to see how much of a fool you are. Your attitude is foul. Your language vulgar. You are a racist and a bigot. Why are you here except to inflate your dumbass ego.
We know you are a dry drug addict so your bad behavior is actually you getting your fix with conflict. What is it like to mainline coke and heroin? Was your needle dirty or did you have bad sexual behavior? Drugs and HepC are a bad mix. Did all this happen in Georgia and that is why you hate and resent the US?
Apneaman on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 4:58 pm
Davy, you’re the one who keeps calling me special. Again, I’m flatted you think so.
Apneaman on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 5:10 pm
Davy, how come you spend so much time on this board? I thought you had a wife and kids? You are on here morning noon and night. In between you tell us about all your time consuming doomstead projects. No time for your family eh? Just another possession and status symbol? I do not have children, nor a wife and I only do odd jobs. I like it that way. If I had two young boys – took on that huge responsibility, I certainly would not be wasting the only chance I’m ever going to have to help them and watch them grow up slinging mud on the inter-tubes. Very responsible and loving parenting Davy. Do they even know you exist? Why not fuck off and go teach them how to throw a curve ball or shoot a squirrel or read them a book or something instead of reading and obsessing over my comments 24/7….Dad?
P.S. feel free to give your lonely neglected wife my number.
GregT on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 5:12 pm
Davy,
Four individual people, who have never met one another, that live completely different lives, in different part of the world, with differing points of view, do not constitute a ‘goon squad’, or a ‘gang’. The one common issue that we all have is with one certain individual. That individual would be you.
Why do you believe that this would be the case Davy?
Davy on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 5:24 pm
Yea, Greg, 4 pricks who think they own the board. You don’t own anything. Two of you are just dumbass Canadians. The other an ex-American bigot. The last one is a rabid anti-American resident alien that needs to be deported. I find it funny you think that statistically proves your lame point.
You suck Greg and like your wing dinger buddies you are nothing special. You guys are just 4 extremist using the usual tools of coercion to broadcast your agenda of hate and resentment.
Greg, You are the biggest hypocrite on the board Mr “I hate 1%ers 1%er”. The same is true of your buddy Juan. You guys live by double standards but can’t stand someone who stands up and spits in your face after you spit in theirs. You guys are the classic pussies that can’t man up and battle alone you have to gang bang.
GregT on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 5:35 pm
There is no possible way that at your age Davy, that you are not completely aware of your blatantly obvious anger management issues. You are doing nothing to help yourself at all, by continuing to post on these forums. Other than a source of amusement to others, all you are accomplishing here is making your own problems even worse.
Go and talk to your therapist, if he’ll even see you anymore.
Davy on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 5:52 pm
Greg, look in the mirror son. You are a piece of work. You have terrible issues with hacking people who don’t agree with you. The goon squad motto is the ends justify the means so kick butt whenever possible. You are just a normal guy Greg who thinks he is gifted. You are not. Your personality is drab and your comments stale.
sidzepp on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 5:56 pm
Davy. Where did you get your education from? Ricki Lake, Jerry Springer, Bill O’Reilly?
I long ago realized that no one person has all the answers though many think they do. I see sites such as these as avenues for the dissemination of ideas that broaden our scope of ideas much better than MSM
GregT on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 5:58 pm
You know as well as I do, that what I have said above is true Davy. It does not take a gifted individual to figure this out. It is plain as day.
Davy on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 6:11 pm
Greg, shut the frig up. You are like a dumb dog that can’t let go of a bone. Say something with meaning. Comment on the subject matter. I could give a rat’s ass what you AND the goons think about me. I despise all of you. We are getting tired of your stupid obsessive personality disorder here on the board. You do the same thing with Boat. GROW UP!
Davy on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 6:13 pm
Sid, you are a shining light yourself. What is your education?
GregT on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 6:23 pm
“I despise all of you.”
The Seven-Stage Hate Model
The Psychopathology of Hate
Hate masks personal insecurities. Not all insecure people are haters, but all haters are insecure people. Hate elevates the hater above the hated. Haters cannot stop hating without exposing their personal insecurities. Haters can only stop hating when they face their insecurities.
Jack Schafer Ph.D.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/let-their-words-do-the-talking/201103/the-seven-stage-hate-model-the-psychopathology-hate
Davy on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 6:33 pm
You need to read your own medicine for a change hypocrite.
GregT on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 6:35 pm
I don’t despise you Davy. I feel sorry for you.
sidzepp on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 6:49 pm
Dave, I continue to get my education from life and continue to learn, might I suggest the same for you. Some of your ideas I can agree with you on, others cannot be. It doesn’t mean you are better or worse, but simply have different opinions. This forum does not to be like a high school hallway.
Davy on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 6:51 pm
Greg, who cares. You and I tried to be friends. It was a one way street IOW your way or the highway. Forget it and move on you are like a child sometimes. Do you have anything to say that is of substance?
Davy on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 6:57 pm
Sid, you may be a sock puppet who knows. You have not been around long enough for me to know who or what you are. What is your deal? Where are you from? You don’t know our story here and you are obviously slanted because you have nothing to say about the goon squad infractions. You are like a little dog at a big dog fight barking and yapping but with no real use. Unless you are going to give up some skin you are irrelevant. Giving up skin means stepping out of your anonymity. I am not here for popularity. I put in my time. I try to respect people that respect me. If you attack me I attack you. I have made that clear. This is a free board and I have a message there is nothing any of you can do about it. So what is your deal and who are you?
sidzepp on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 7:24 pm
Want a bio Davy, here it is. I’m from Chicago, lived in Missouri (College), Texas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Korea, and now in Florida. I have 11 children (adopted, step, and biological. I have sixteen grandchildren. I was down sized five years ago and ended up taking early SS, so I am working part time to supplement our income. I have been an active environmentalist for decades and was exposed to the concept of PO in ’06. My second major concern is with income inequality in the world and that humanity needs to work together if there might be the slight chance of solving our problems together. I am not here to argue back and forth with people but rather to learn more about those challenges that confront them in the hope that I can help educate people in the area I live in and make intelligent choices in which of the representatives are to be voted for.
P.S., My name is Robert Stroud and I live in Crestview, Fl., and work part time as a server at the Waffle House in Shalimar, Fl. I am almost finished with my first novel and am attempting to become a semi-successful gardener, though my attempts this last year were not very encouraging. Now I have come out of the closet!
makati1 on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 7:28 pm
GregT, Though I no longer read any of the Ozark Redneck’s rants, I do read yours and other’s. You seem to have hit the nail on the head with regards to his family duties and mental state.
When I was in my 30s, 40s and 50s and had a family, I had no time to even read a book or go fishing. I spent it either providing for them (work), tending our large garden, maintaining the house and yard, including putting a large addition (~1,200 sq.ft.)on the house in my “spare” time to increase our net worth, or doing fun things with them as often as possible. I can only imagine the demands of a large farm and providing for their future in today’s world. I certainly didn’t have hours to waste on something like an internet blog.
My kids recently told me they had a perfect family life growing up and appreciated all that I did for them. I wonder what his kids will say in future years?
sidzepp on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 7:36 pm
my whole life these past forty years has been devoted to our family. All eleven children have grown to be hardworking and honest members of society though their political and social beliefs vary drastically. My greatest hope is that humanity can work as a family (including the environment that sustains us all) instead of the rabid hatred that seems to permeate through society.
makati1 on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 7:37 pm
sidzepp, you sound like and interesting person. Too bad there are so many miles between us. It would be interesting to meet for coffee and to share ideas.
I too wrote a novel after I was forced to retire by the collapse of construction in ’07’ and ’08’. It will probably never be published because I don’t want the US IRS ties and the hassle of schedules and such. I did make some copies for family and friends. It needs one more edit to be publishable, but…
Anyway, I too visit here for other perspectives and to give thought to alternatives, but I do not suffer fools or the insane. You are not one of those. They know who they are.
GregT on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 8:03 pm
Thanks for the bio Robert,
Always good to have some background info. Sorry about the ongoing spat. It’s been two years in the making. Some of us are way beyond fed up.
Apneaman on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 8:11 pm
sidzepp, good of you to give a bio, but don’t pay any attention to Davy’s “board rules”. He makes up rules for others all the time. Self appointed supervisor. This is just one more anonymous internet board and ain’t nobody required to audition for the 1%er fuck head davy or anyone else. Welcome to the freakshow.
GregT on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 8:17 pm
My life as well has been devoted entirely to my family. My youngest moved out on his own three years ago. My two kids also, have grown up to be considerate, hardworking, contributing members of society. I am very proud of them both. Sometimes I wonder where they got it from. Must have been from their mother. 🙂
11 children must have been complete mayhem sidzepp. I can’t imagine what your life has been like. Good for you for doing such a great job!
thylacine on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 8:25 pm
3 comments about Saudi Aramco, and about 10 times that amount devoted to snarly comments, ad-homs and general bitchiness by a bunch of angry middle-aged blokes. Nice work guys!
GregT on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 8:34 pm
I count 5 thylacine. Four before the usual ad-hom attacks began.
Davy on Thu, 28th Jan 2016 3:08 am
Thylacine said “3 comments about Saudi Aramco, and about 10 times that amount devoted to snarly comments, ad-homs and general bitchiness by a bunch of angry middle-aged blokes. Nice work guys!”
Thy, yea, not by choice at my end. Juan started it earlier. If you allow them to hammer you they walk all over you so I just fight back until they move on. These guys are devoted to each other. They are bud spuds that have their own little world of support and ideas. I am not here for the personal attacks. I am not here to find friends or have popularity. I have a variety of messages. I have a message that everything about America is not bad and that is the one they hate the most. There are good people in America unlike their message. The only good American for them is an American that agrees with them. I also want to make sure those these goons want to hold up as their winners are seen as turds too just like the ones they hate. Anyone worshiping Putin needs their head examined as an example.
I am the one being attacked first. It should be apparent I am outnumbered that should tell you it is not in my interest to start these spats. I give them back the shit they deserve. I could care less about them and what they think. I am making an effort to get a message out but it is a message of moderation and accommodation these guys do not like. It is not their narrow extremist message so it is in the cross hairs of their ire. Not everything they say is extreme nor wrong it is the vehicle of their message and the constant anti-Americanism. IMA an anti-Americanism that is disrespectful of Americans on this board.
I made an effort to stop the BS yesterday when Ghung requested an end. These guys don’t care about anyone else on this board but their own little sowing circle. It continued on with the usual pattern of every one of the 4 joining in. They routinely find friends like Sid who want to be part of the group. This gives them strength.
My message is not a majority message here but who says the majority rules or might makes right? A few guys is not statistically relevant. I am going to make an effort today to avoid the cycle of attacks but we will see if these guys respect others or choose to hog air time. This is a regular cycle. They want me gone but their repression just gives me strength. They are truly a bunch of thugs with no respect for others on this board. Their ends justify their means and they live by double standards.
Go Speed Racer on Thu, 28th Jan 2016 4:17 am
It’s just a bunch of news articles, with people providing some comments afterwards to provide levity or insight…. and really not very much traffic anyway. Maybe don’t read quite so much relevance into a chat board that is basically irrelevant?
Davy on Thu, 28th Jan 2016 4:44 am
Point taken Speeder. I enjoy it here and it helps me with my doom meter. In that respect for me personally it is relevant but in the bigger picture probably not. Yet, how many sites are there that discuss our topics? Not many if you look around. It is a pity the message has been hijacked by a few but that is the nature of information today. There are so many sites that are just babble like we see with all the choices on satellite TV. I enjoy your jokes Speeder so that has relevance.
JuanP on Thu, 28th Jan 2016 6:26 am
Davy on Wed, 27th Jan 2016 2:27 pm talking about me when I hadn’t even mentioned or referred to him. “Folks you heard it straight from the pricks 1%er mouth and unashamed IMA. Pathetic”
Davy on Thu, 28th Jan 2016 3:08 am lying about what happened, “Juan started it earlier.” “I am the one being attacked first.”
There, I just proved one more time that Davy is a narcissistic, bullying liar by simply quoting his comments on this one thread. The thread speaks for itself. Davy is obviously clinically insane.
Davy, you are a liar, a coward, a traitor, a bully, a fool, and an all around repugnant human being, but like I’ve said before, I don’t despise, I think you are contemptible. I pithy you, it must really suck to be you. I can’t imagine how unhappy you must be, the prototypical sad, pathetic fool. Nobody here despises you, we pithy you, bully. You are a sad, sad case.
JuanP on Thu, 28th Jan 2016 6:29 am
Davy, You are a bully, a liar and a fool, prick! LOL! Ready for your daily dose of punishment? I am only getting started. I love finding out that you despise us, it further proves how insane you are. Enjoy! It will be a long day for you.
Davy on Thu, 28th Jan 2016 6:57 am
Juan, say something intelligent for a change. Anyone can rant attacks and obscenities. You are acting immature as usual.
Cloud9 on Thu, 28th Jan 2016 7:22 am
So, how many years out are we before Saudi production noticeably contracts?
JuanP on Thu, 28th Jan 2016 7:37 am
Davy, you are a fool to cry!
shortonoil on Thu, 28th Jan 2016 8:33 am
“So, how many years out are we before Saudi production noticeably contracts?”
That will depend on how long the Saudis can afford to continue pumping oily water. Ghawar has about the highest permeability of any field in the world; they could continue to sweep that field for a very long time. The question is not how long they can continue to extract oil, the question is how long can they afford to continue extracting oil. At $30 probably not more than two, or three years.
We put this page up almost two years ago, and there has been no reason that has come forth for us to change our minds:
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm
The long term price of oil is going down. It is the inevitable outcome of depletion when measured in energy units, as opposed to volumetric units. Volumetric units make the big assumption that someone, somewhere is going to be there to buy the oil. The last couple of years has shown that to be an assumption inconsistent with actual market operation.
Saudi production will begin to decline when they can no longer cover their production cost, and the cost of running the Kingdom. When they can no longer feed their teaming masses they will probably be too busy putting down insurrections to pump much oil!
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
GregT on Thu, 28th Jan 2016 9:52 am
“They routinely find friends like Sid who want to be part of the group.”
Sid hasn’t been officially sworn in yet Davy. We usually meet on the second Thursday of every month. We’ll let you know if we decide to let him join the group or not.
Boat on Thu, 28th Jan 2016 10:16 am
short,
You keep throwing this energy unit vrs volume thing out there. But if a reader looks at diesel, gasoline and jetfuel trends growing demand is all you see. If you compare the forecast of 1.4 bbpd growth with history, 1.4 would be considered strong consumption growth. How do you explain that.