Russia is Only 3 Years Away From Peak Oil

29 Comments on "Russia is Only 3 Years Away From Peak Oil"

dissident on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 8:36 am 



Ah, the Moscow Times. Fifth column media in Russia spewing its usual doom and gloom propaganda.

I have been hearing about the imminent Russian peak since before 2006. Considering that Russia has not even started to tap the Bazhenov formation, these predictions are simply moronic.

Davy on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 9:37 am 



Dissident, if you were honest about what PO means then you know it may happen despite the many untapped resources in Russia. There is more to PO dynamics that can cause an unrecoverable national production decline. Maybe the tail of the decline stretches out many years.

dissident on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 10:11 am 



https://russia-insider.com/en/hilarious-having-waged-war-russias-oil-sector-washington-now-needs-russias-help-cap-soaring-oil

Well, well. While the foreign run and operated Moscow Times is spewing about Russian taxes, it is Uncle Scumbag’s sanctions that are slowing down new oil extraction projects in Russia.

The Moscow Times propagandists hate it that Russia taxes oil instead of people’s incomes.

MASTERMIND on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 10:48 am 



Dissident

They haven’t discovered any major oil fields since the Soviet days..And they have already peaked once, they just created a second peak thanks to opening up to private industries that brought in newer technologies..

IEA: Russia’s oil output to reach its peak in 2020
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/IEA-Russia%E2%80%99s-oil-output-to-reach-its-peak-in-2020.html

MASTERMIND on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 10:51 am 



HAHA Putin..I see a Russian Spring coming!

Down with the dictator!

MASTERMIND on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 10:55 am 



Peak oil caused the 08 crash, they dragged it out a few years by creating money, lowering the interest rate, and dumping cash down the sinkhole that is fracking, but the collapse process has already been initiated..

Buckle up, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride..

fmr-paultard on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 10:58 am 



^mm^ putin is peddler of fake news and the russian people are so docile to let him reign. he echos their deep fear of outsiders and supertards and they see themselves as victims, as bulwalk against nato and america. this is a stupid and unsustainable stance considering the fall of the soviet union as historial precedence. why admire putin when there’s foward thinking kim jung un? he saw his nation as a leading force against “american imperialism” and he changed before he being brought down and face the gallow

Cloggie on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 12:36 pm 



Moscow Times, that is a rag owned but Dutch commie and hence Putin hater Derk Sauer. Wil do anything to write Putin-Russia into the ground. He is on the Dutch telly all the time.

Note that if true, it refers to peak conventional oil.

Plantagenet on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 1:21 pm 



The Soviet Union peaked and then collapsed. The same thing can happen to the Soviet era oilfield that today’s Russia is relying upon. Russia is going to peak, just like every other oil producing area on the globe will eventually peak. It is inevitable.

Cheers!

dissident on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 1:59 pm 



Using the past to predict the future is BS. And the USSR was more than just Russia, it included a several other oil producing republics. So the Soviet peak does not matter for the Russian peak.

Also, Planty insinuates that there has been no technological development or any development of oil fields in Russia. This is utter rubbish misinformation. One of the reasons that Russia managed to exceed 10 million bpd of production is the deployment of maximal contact drilling and improved oil field mapping technology.

If people are going to nitpick about conventional oil production, well then, the USA peaked in 1973. You all don’t count non-conventional production when it comes to Russia but treat it as normal for the USA. As I said, the Bazhenov formation is a vast pool of non-conventional oil (actual oil and not kerogens).

Anonymous on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 4:32 pm 



Russians have several times said they were already past peak (and then the production still went up). Not sure that they or anyone can really predict future potential. For one thing, they still have a lot of source rock (shale).

While it makes them look strong to say they have lots of oil, their economic instincts are actually better served by underplaying their capacity (because peak oil worries drive prices up).

Anonymouse1 on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 5:35 pm 



Holy fook, are you ever a genius plantretard.

We should change your name to Captain ObviousTard.

Would you like handle better, moron?

makati1 on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 7:10 pm 



Some claim more oil than they have. Some claim less than they have (the smart ones). Some make no claims but let others guess. THAT is why no one knows how much is recoverable and when it will/did “peak”. But the amount left is not important. The system that makes recover possible is going to decline and/or crash long before the last well goes dry. We will probably see $200+ oil before that day happens.

Almost everything we consider important today depends on cash flow and profits including oil. The central financial system, run by the US, is being replaced by at least two, and maybe three, new systems not connected to the US. The Russians, the Chinese and the EU have all begun building alternates to SWIFT.

Watching the collapse of the US from the Philippine shores is more interesting and entertaining than anything on TV or in the movies. A never ending circus with more idiocy and insanity than an Alfred Hitchcock movie or a TV series like ‘The Twilight Zone’. Ditto, reading the comments on this site. It’s like visiting the monkey compound at the zoo. Some signs of real intelligence, mostly from non-Americans, and many signs of the American brainwashing success from Americans and their wannabees. lol

MASTERMIND on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 7:39 pm 



The Soviet Union collapsed due to peak oil

Source: CIA

https://www.scribd.com/document/389023088/Impending-Soviet-Oil-Crisis-CIA-1977

And when the global oil shortage hits in a few years..The global economy will collapse the same way..

https://imgur.com/a/rBtIrfg

Cloggie on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 8:06 pm 



Um millimind, that document you link to is from 1977, the shitpile called USSR collapsed in 1991. Nobody ever suggested that peak oil was the cause. The joint collapsed because the system was dead. That is what you invariable get if you let society be run by types like you. Idiots and sociopaths like you are able turn gold into shit. And now you want to turn the US in a similar nightmare, which btw won’t happen without a civil war, just like the one the USSR started with.

But please go ahead, give it a try. The difference between 1917 and now is that after 1918 nobody intervened in the USSR because everybody was exhausted from WW1. That is not the case now. In case of major social disturbances, which I do indeed expect to happen in the US, entire Eurasia will have its hands free to intervene, c.q. take advantage of the new situation.

First time a tragedy, second time a farce.

makati1 on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 8:27 pm 



MM, the collapse will be for financial reasons, not oil. Well, maybe the oily price spike will knock over the first card/domino, but the huge debt pile on top of it will be the destroyer.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-19/heloc-atm-back-over-24-million-americans-are-using-home-equity-get

The pile of debt is largest in America. Guess who is going to hurt the most? I hope you are getting prepared for it.

MASTERMIND on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 8:56 pm 



Clogg

Nobody ever suggested? Except for the CIA report done a decade earlier that accurately predicted the collapse..

Peak Oil And The Fall Of The Soviet Union: Lessons On The 20th Anniversary Of The Collapse
http://www.businessinsider.com/peak-oil-and-the-fall-of-the-soviet-union-lessons-on-the-20th-anniversary-of-the-collapse-2011-5

Imminent peak oil could burst US, global economic bubble – study
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/nov/19/peak-oil-economicgrowth

Dimetrodon on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 9:37 pm 



The USA prolonged production with production with Hydraulic Fracturing technology. Why can’t Russia do the same ?

Dimetrodon on Wed, 19th Sep 2018 9:39 pm 



Errr… The USA prolonged production with Hydraulic Fracturing technology. Why can’t Russia do the same ?

Cloggie on Thu, 20th Sep 2018 1:39 am 



“Nobody ever suggested? Except for the CIA report done a decade earlier that accurately predicted the collapse..”

Peak oil in the modern understanding is strongly correlated to geophysical reserves. The Soviet peak oil had nothing to do with depleting reserves with the inability of a demoralised socialist system to keep up production. After the fall of the USSR, oil production bounced back, an impossibility in case of a peak oil due to depletion:

https://goo.gl/images/sbdZHA

Russia is still twice the US, they have to get started with fracking yet, the same fracking that made the US a top producer again.

Peak oil supply, big yawn.

EU: 90% new capacity renewable
US: 45%

Expect peak oil demand to set in in 5-15 years from now.

Smooth energy transition likely.

print baby print on Thu, 20th Sep 2018 4:09 am 



Dimetrodon
Because only usa can print money without causing immediate inflation , but we will see for how long. And fracturing is a poncy scheme which lose money with this prices . It is not immpossible that Russia start doing the same but when the prices get higher , but I doubt that world economy can stand 100$ barrel or even more

Davy on Thu, 20th Sep 2018 4:48 am 



“Expect peak oil demand to set in in 5-15 years from now. Smooth energy transition likely.”

There will be nothing smooth about the second half of the renewable energy transformation. Notice I did not call it transition and that is because a transition is unlikely. The second half of the transformation involves grid issues of storage and vast changes to the grid to allow continental size integration. I am talking about Europe here that is the furthest along materially and with policy. Storage is the big issue. The other issue is behavior. Behavior will have to adapt once a threshold is passed where intermittency is more of a challenge. Demand management with corporations and individuals must increase. Energy demand will need to drop to take pressure off this transformation. An energy drop generally means less economic activity. The economy is a big unknown in this whole equation. Will we have a stable global economy to allow this much material change? The physical changes of moving to a transformation are more expensive as time goes on. There is also the replacement issue of the previous decades of equipment. It is unclear how far this transformation will go and we can estimate it will not be smooth, cheap, or a sure thing.

Antius on Thu, 20th Sep 2018 7:03 am 



“Expect peak oil demand to set in in 5-15 years from now. Smooth energy transition likely.”

Peak oil demand has already happened in the OECD. The mainstream media put it about as if it is something to celebrate; like demand has peaked because we don’t need as much anymore.

The reality is that demand has peaked because we can’t afford as much anymore. The industries we used to have are slowly disappearing. This is simply the result of declining EROI leading to declining affluence. Not exactly something to celebrate.

Antius on Thu, 20th Sep 2018 7:21 am 



“Peak oil supply, big yawn.

EU: 90% new capacity renewable
US: 45%

Expect peak oil demand to set in in 5-15 years from now.

Smooth energy transition likely.”

Cloggie, you are the eternal optimist.

Peak oil demand has already set in in OECD countries because we are driving less and car ownership is declining along with average incomes. UK prosperity has declined by 10%; Italy – by 12%; US ~10%. Fewer people can afford to drive as much as they did 15 years ago.

Electric vehicles powered by renewable electricity are an aspiration. They are presently a reality for only a tiny proportion of the population even in developed countries. Given the purchase cost of electric vehicles ($35,000 for a Tesla 3) and the fundamental limitations of battery technology (range, charging time, replacement cost), it would appear premature to assume that a smooth transition from BAU to a battery electric future is a done deal.

On the plus side, total electric vehicle power demand will not require a geometric increase in generating capacity. I was surprised by this assessment, but 10million Tesla 3’s driving an average of 40km per day, will consume 57GWh of electrical energy per day. That is equivalent to two big nuclear reactors, or the equivalent mix of other energy sources. I was surprised by that assessment, but it does seem to be true. One sticking point could be the production of load spikes created by electric vehicle recharging. If 10million EV owners decide to charge all at once, the result is a 100GW spike in power demand.

I continue to believe that hybrids represent a better near-term option for electrifying transport.

Davy on Thu, 20th Sep 2018 7:38 am 



“I continue to believe that hybrids represent a better near-term option for electrifying transport.”

I second that

Sissyfuss on Thu, 20th Sep 2018 7:35 pm 



Shouldn’t Peak Oil Dynamics include Climate Disruption as well as declining EROEI? It will get increasingly difficult to disconnect the devastation caused by FF consumption and the cooking of the planet. You can’t fool all of the people all of the time irregardless of what President Mushroomdick sells you.

onlooker on Thu, 20th Sep 2018 7:43 pm 



Oh yeah, awarness will be growing exponentially that all along the Economy was just a subset of the Environment and totally dependent on it. And I may add the Pain also will be growing

Permavillage on Thu, 20th Sep 2018 10:17 pm 



Новак спрогнозировал снижение добычи нефти в РФ после 2021 года без льгот для “нефтянки”

Novak predicted a decline in oil production in Russia after 2021 without benefits for the “oil industry”

Permavillage on Thu, 20th Sep 2018 10:22 pm 



Latest global peak oil predictions:

Bernard Durand 2020-2025
Jean-Marc Jancovici 2020
Jean Laherrere 2018
Michael Dittmar 2020
Dennis Coyne 2023-2027
Dr. Minqi Li 2021
Louis Arnoux 2026