Peak Oil is You
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Page added on March 21, 2013
Roger Helmer: Peak Oil or false summit?
The doomsters have spoken. We’re facing “peak oil” – a point of maximum production, followed by an inexorable decline, when oil prices will skyrocket, and petrol and diesel cars will rust by the road-side.
In 1922, a US federal commission predicted that “production of oil cannot long maintain its present rate”.
Back in the sixties, Professor Paul Ehrlich of Stanford University said that by the 70s, hundreds of millions would starve. He predicted that “within ten years” all major life in the seas would be gone.
By 1985, mankind would enter an age of scarcity, as resources were depleted. By 1999, the population of the US would drop to 22 million. Oh, and by the way, we’d run out of oil.
A good rebuttal of all this nonsense comes from Matt Ridley’s “The Rational Optimist”.
He points out that when resources run short, or become more expensive, we find more. Or we find alternatives. Or we find totally new technologies.
Of course, the amount of fossil fuels in the world is finite. No question. But it is also rather bigger than we imagine.
Currently, the American economy is being transformed by low-cost shale gas.
America’s industrial renaissance poses a real threat to European competitiveness, as we agonise over our green credentials and ignore energy prices and security of supply.
In fact, the USA could well be self-sufficient in energy by 2030, and may by then be the world’s biggest oil producer, ahead of Saudi Arabia.
Where there’s shale gas, there is frequently oil as well. This is a geo-political game-changer. The US may be less enthusiastic about keeping the peace in the Middle East, and defending the straits of Hormuz, when it doesn’t need Saudi oil. Europe should take note.
Some estimates in the UK suggest we may have gas reserves for 1,000 years – and there may be oil here as well.
In the eastern Mediterranean, major new oil and gas fields are being discovered. We may see some jockeying between Greece, Italy, Cyprus – and especially between Israel and the Palestinians – but either way, there’s a lot more oil and gas about than we realised.
We have fossil fuel availability for the foreseeable future.
There are also 1,200 new coal-fired power stations in the global pipeline. So if you think that continuing carbon dioxide emissions will lead to a calamity for the human race, despair now.
On the other hand, you may prefer to wake up and smell the coffee.
11 Comments on "Roger Helmer: Peak Oil or false summit?"
GregT on Thu, 21st Mar 2013 2:07 pm
Yup, we all should wake up and smell the coffee, while we still can, because it too is being decimated by climate change.
Beery on Thu, 21st Mar 2013 2:11 pm
Isn’t this the exact same article they’ve been trotting out for the last couple of months? Do they think it gets less untrue if they just keep posting it?
Plantagenet on Thu, 21st Mar 2013 5:50 pm
There could be quite a bit of shale gas in the UK—and maybe even a bit of oil as well.
Good luck to the Brits.
Beery on Thu, 21st Mar 2013 7:34 pm
Just please don’t say ‘Brits’ in front of a Briton over the age of 40, unless you mean to be insulting.
LT on Thu, 21st Mar 2013 8:11 pm
A lot of oil left in the world??? Let see:
How many kinds of Spindletop gusher –the kind that occured in Jan 10 1901– have the world witnesses since oil was discovered in 1859 in Pensylvania?
1 million?
1 hundred thousand?
1 thousand? or
just a few hundreds?
I don’t know, but my guess is just a couple dozen of them at best! or it could be just a few of them.
Kenz300 on Thu, 21st Mar 2013 8:21 pm
Every country needs to develop a plan to balance its population with its resources, food, water, energy and jobs.
There are countries in Europe with youth unemployment rates of 25 – 50%.
It is clear that most governments have no plan to look at what is sustainable for the nation.
Food scarcity, water scarcity, oil scarcity, jobs scarcity are all just examples of a system out of balance.
Bob Owens on Thu, 21st Mar 2013 8:56 pm
It’s easy to tell that this article is mainly fiction. Look for the key words: “depletion rate”. If there is no discussion of this it is not an article that you can have much trust in. Also, look for real facts that make sense to you. No numbers quoted, no facts, don’t trust it. Use your critical reasoning; you can trust that.
BillT on Fri, 22nd Mar 2013 12:44 am
And the oceans contain more gold than all of the mines have produced since the beginning of time, but there it will stay. There will be large amounts of everything left when the drilling and mining stops, but it will be untouchable because of EROEI.
energy investor on Fri, 22nd Mar 2013 1:14 am
I have actually read Matthew Ridley’s book and found him careless with essential facts and conclusions. But I suppose a guy who was a director of Northern Rock would have his head in the sand wouldn’t he?
BoBo on Fri, 22nd Mar 2013 12:56 pm
Solve problems? No, we’d rather soak in hopeless despair. Our brains stopped working decades since.
Newfie on Fri, 22nd Mar 2013 1:12 pm
I nominate Roger Helmer President of the Cornucopians. A pair of rose coloured glasses comes with the position (not that he needs any).