PeakOil.com Weekly Supply Report

27-Aug Unleaded
Forecast / Actual
Imports 1.10 /1.14
Production 9.61 /9.62
Products Supplied 9.35 /9.39
Demand 10.42 /10.79
Inventory Change 2.05 /-0.20

I had to post the validation of my little unleaded forecast above, which showed that I was within .05 on all of the sub-forecasts, but 2 million barrels of unleaded appeared from nowhere and deprived me of a point vs. the analysts….

The only number on here that is really strange is the 3.9 mbpd distillate products supplied, which is a pretty big jump from last week, a lot more than the recent history, and completely non-seasonal, that is, this time of year the demand is supposed to be weak….. Too bad there is no detail on this so we could see where it went, but I went back through the full report and inspected the inventory changes: Approximately 1.7 million barrels were drawn out of the system from the midwest, most of this in ULSD or the one grade nastier, so I suppose the midwesterners are buying the diesel for their tractors in anticipation of the harvest, which is still a month or so off….this accounts for the bulk of the discrepancy between my forecast and the reality.

Imports: 9,7 mbpd just like we figured, I think that is about the rate at which it is coming in. I think this will be lower in next week’s report….. refinery utilization 87% just like we said, and inputs to refineries about where it should be statistically.

So, the bulls might be cheered up by the increase in distillate demand, it will be interesting to see where it goes from here….

Sparky is right, it will be an interesting winter.