PeakOil.Com: Weekly Petroleum Supply Report

[quote]Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending July 30, 2010
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.6 million barrels per day during the week ending July 30, 113 thousand barrels per day above the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.2 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.4 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased slightly last week, averaging 4.4 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.6 million barrels per day last week, down by 1.5 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 10.0 million barrels per day, 494 thousand barrels per day above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 1.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 187 thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 358.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 6.1 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 19.3 million barrels per day, up by 2.0 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.4 million barrels per day, up by 2.3 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.5 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 2.7 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 10.2 percent higher over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.[/quote]
[quote]
Unleaded 30-Jul
Beginning Inv 222.2
Imports 8.631 1.233
Production 67.536 9.648
Available 298.367
Ending Inv 223
Balance 75.367
Balance/day 10.77
Prod Supplied 9.477
Balance Gap 1.29
Actual Change 0.8
Deviation from Forecast 1.1

Distillates 30-Jul
Beginning Inv 167.5
Imports 1.309 0.187
Production 30.429 4.347
Available 199.238
Ending Inv 169.7
Balance 29.538
Inv Balance/Gap 4.22 0.60
Prod Supplied 3.464
Actual Change 2.2
Deviation from Forecast -0.3

Crude Oil 30-Jul
Beginning Inv 360.8
Production 38.08 5.44
Imports 67.403 9.629
SPR+/Supply – 0 0
Total Available 466.283
Provided to Ref 109.025 15.575 91.2
Ending Inventory 358
Inv Balance/Gap 357.258 0.742
Actual Change -2.8
Deviation from Forecast -3.7275

pup55 Experts Actual
Crude Oil 0.93 -1.65 -2.8
Unleaded -0.35 -0.70 0.8
Distillates 2.5 1.1 2.2
[/quote]

Well, I would say nearly respectable on the forecast this week.

The two things we always look at are crude oil imports and refinery utillization, because that drives everything else. The refinery utilization was a little higher this week than it was last week, and the crude oil imports are back down to 9.6 mbpd, so that is the source of me being off a bit.

In unleaded we had an importation of an additional .2 mbpd, and that was mainly what was responsible for the discrepancy, and in distillates, I am not going to get too much closer than that, both unleaded and distillates demand were within the realm of plausibility, I think my unleaded demand forecast was off by .15 and my distillates forecast was off by .047 so those little algorithms are working properly.

So there is nothing in here that is going to shock anybody, even the pesky analysts. I think we have some tropical stuff brewing out there today, and within a day or two I think we will get a little chaos added to the system.