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Page added on April 23, 2020
Peak Oil, a Specimen Case of Apocalypic Thinking
Prophets of doom held that looming shortages of oil would plunge us back into a Paleolithic standard of living. What’s interesting is why the prophecies were accepted—and whether we’ve learned anything at all from it
Predictions of when we would run out of oil have been around for a century, but the idea that peak production was rapidly approaching and that it would be followed by ruinous decline gained wider acceptance thanks to the work of M. King Hubbert, an American geologist who worked for Shell in Houston.
In 1956, he predicted that U.S. oil output would top out during the late 1960s; in 1969 he placed it in the first half of the 1970s. In 1970, when the actual peak came—or appeared to come—it was nearly 20 percent above Hubbert’s prediction. But few paid attention to the miss—the timing was enough to make his name as a prophet and give credence to his notion that the production curve of a mineral resource was symmetrical, with the decline being a mirror image of the ascent.
But reality does not follow perfect models, and by the year 2000, actual U.S. oil output was 2.3 times as much as indicated by Hubbert’s symmetrically declining forecast. Similarly, his forecasts of global peak oil (either in 1990 or in 2000) had soon unraveled. But that made no difference to a group of geologists, most notably Colin Campbell, Kenneth Deffeyes, L.F. Ivanhoe, and Jean Laherrère, who saw global oil peaking in 2000 or 2003. Deffeyes set it, with ridiculous accuracy, on Thanksgiving Day, 24 November 2005.
These analysts then predicted unprecedented economic disruptions. Ivanhoe went so far as to speak of “the inevitable doomsday” followed by “economic implosion” that would make “many of the world’s developed societies look more like today’s Russia than the United States.” Richard C. Duncan, an electrical engineer, proffered his “Olduvai theory,” which held that declining oil extraction would plunge humanity into a life comparable to that of the hunter-gatherers who lived near the famous Kenyan gorge some 2.5 million years ago.
In 2006, I reacted [PDF]to these prophecies by noting that “the recent obsession with an imminent peak of oil extraction has all the marks of a catastrophist apocalyptic cult.” I concluded that “conventional oil will become relatively a less important part of the world’s primary energy supply. But this spells no imminent end of the oil era as very large volumes of the fuel, both from traditional and nonconventional sources, will remain on the world market during the first half of the 21st century.”
And so they have. With the exception of a tiny (0.2 percent) dip in 2007 and a larger (2.5 percent) decline in 2009 (following the economic downturn), global crude oil extraction has set new records every year. In 2018, at nearly 4.5 billion metric tons, it was nearly 14 percent higher than in 2005.
A large part of this gain has been due to expansion in the United States, where the combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing made the country, once again, the world’s largest producer of crude oil, about 16 percent ahead of Saudi Arabia and 19 percent ahead of Russia. Instead of following a perfect bell-shaped curve, since 2009 the trajectory of the U.S. crude oil extraction has been on the rise, and it is now surpassing the record set in 1970.
As for the global economic product, in 2019 it was 82 percent higher, in current prices, than in 2005, a rise enabled by the adequate supply of energy in general and crude oil in particular. I’d like to think that there are many lessons to be learned from this peak oil–mongering, but I have no illusions: Those who put models ahead of reality are bound to make the same false calls again and again.
21 Comments on "Peak Oil, a Specimen Case of Apocalypic Thinking"
Zeke Putnam on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 12:41 pm
I love this guy. Obviously an extremely simplistic think who never understood it all to begin with. Decades of money losing fracking. a global pandemic, a collapsing global economy, over 20 million unemployed in the US alone and forecasts of tens of millions starving to make his dream come true. So focused on being right that reality is somewhere “over the rainbow”.
DerHundistLos on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 8:18 pm
Bad news for Cloggie wh was previously pushing the Dear Leader’s miracle drug-lol.
diemos wrote:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/21/anti-malarial-drug-trump-touted-is-linked-higher-rates-death-va-coronavirus-patients-study-says/
Study at the VA that showed that patients with standard treatment had a better survival rate than patients getting Trump’s miracle cure.
Thank you, diemos, for a job well done. Now we know the truth, yet not a word from the Trump faithful. I recall how Trump’s PO.com loyal following hailed him as a medical genius, and efforts demanding efficacy trials were described as a Democratic strategy to exacerbate the pandemic and as a consequence make the Dear Leader look bad.
Notice not a single comment admitting to the stupidity of Trump and his miracle drug.
Not surprising.
JuanP on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 8:26 pm
Der Hund, who cares, Trump will win in 2020 and you will cry
Master Bates on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 10:22 pm
Watch this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE
whoa on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 10:41 pm
the solution simple
we need to love supremacist muzzies more
we need to cill (control or killed) ourselves by Big Sis so muzzies will be in control
makati1 on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 10:47 pm
IF there is a US election in November…Or will it be Dictator Trumpet? We shall see.
Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 11:10 pm
“Bad news for Cloggie wh was previously pushing the Dear Leader’s miracle drug-lol.“
Trump is not my “dear leader”, nor have I any strong convictions about any corona drug whatsoever. I have no biochemist expertise, I’m the kWh-guy. The only thing I like about Trump is that he has the correct enemy, namely the fake media and, by implication, their owners. That’s where things get very interesting, especially for us Europeans, who smell the chance to get that fat ZOG-ass from our faces, planted on said faces in 1945. We urgently need some fresh air. If it’s going to be Donnie to deliver that, than I’ll salute him and forgive him almost anything, you get exited about.
DerHundistLos on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 11:14 pm
Davy is up to his old tricks of ID theft yet again:
JuanP on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 8:26 pm
Der Hund, who cares, Trump will win in 2020 and you will cry
DerHundistLos on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 11:15 pm
Or Cloggie aka Abraham ID theft. No surprise here.
JuanP on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 8:26 pm
Der Hund, who cares, Trump will win in 2020 and you will cry
Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 24th Apr 2020 4:25 am
Just like Dracula:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8252701/Coronavirus-dies-SUNLIGHT-just-minutes-reveals-striking-study.html
“Coronavirus dies in SUNLIGHT in just minutes, reveals ‘striking’ study by US Department of Homeland Security – and officials say transmission of the killer virus WILL decrease in summer”
Another corona killer is SMOKING:
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nicotine-patches-to-be-tested-on-patients-after-study-suggests-smokers-less-likely-to-catch-covid-19-11977460
“Coronavirus: Nicotine patches to be tested on patients after study suggests smokers less likely to catch COVID-19”
(Hilarious picture!)
The misunderstood genius from the White House:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8251605/Donald-Trump-suggests-bizarre-treatments-coronavirus-including-injections.html
“Donald Trump suggests injecting people with ‘DISINFECTANT’ and hitting ‘the body with a very powerful light’ could kill coronavirus in bizarre White House briefing outburst”
This could be over by July. Or not. We’ll see.
Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 24th Apr 2020 6:54 am
Holiday 2020 perspective for the Dutch:
“Forget that diving holiday in Israel, forget that mountain road near Amalfi, forget that secret beach in Menorca, forget that Croatian nudist forest full of German mädel, and that full moon party in Thailand is not for this summer.”
This year it is going to be… Drenthe!
https://nos.nl/video/2331544-deze-camping-is-wel-open-we-voldoen-aan-alle-voorwaarden.html
Drenthe, the Ozarks of the Netherlands.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drenthe
peakyeast on Fri, 24th Apr 2020 2:16 pm
Oh another retard who actually didnt read the report from Hubbert on CONVENTIONAL oil.
Rick on Sun, 26th Apr 2020 4:41 pm
There are crackpots (who have no medical knowledge or experience) promoting “miracle cures” (example: drinking bleach). They claim it cures COVID-19,autism, HIV, diabetes (which is bullshit). These anti-lockdown protestors are endangering the public by pressuring their state governors into reopening their local economies (They bitch and complain about their “rights and freedoms”).
This world has gone insane.
Rick on Sun, 26th Apr 2020 4:52 pm
Panic buying (hoarding of non-essential things and selling them) should be banned. Anyone who needs essential items (groceries, medication and other basics) should be allowed in. People who are in line should either put up or STFU.
Rick on Sun, 26th Apr 2020 5:18 pm
People can do their own thing (as long as nobody else gets hurt).
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 27th Apr 2020 2:40 pm
“Coronavirus: Italian army called in as crematorium struggles to cope with deaths“
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-italian-army-called-in-to-carry-away-corpses-as-citys-crematorium-is-overwhelmed-11959994
“The crematorium of Bergamo, working at full capacity, 24 hours a day, can cremate 25 dead”, said a spokesperson for the local authority
The implications for the credibility of a certain event, hyped for decades by the empire media, should be immediately obvious. The Big Lie of Empire.
Rick on Mon, 27th Apr 2020 2:49 pm
People should never forget the holocaust and punish anyone who denies it.
whoa on Mon, 27th Apr 2020 3:14 pm
i wish i have a heli bcos supertard said his learjet is of no use. with bodies stacked up miles high, good luck taking off in that condition. he’s stuck there and i’m mad that i can’t do anything to help him.
i don’t have a heli either – too poor and too stupid to fly one.
i can’t open my door to get out of the house, it’s blocked by thousands of corpses
still no call to amputate whitey supertard scientific supemacist “thudnerf00t”?
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 27th Apr 2020 3:23 pm
“People should never forget the holocaust and punish anyone who denies it.”
Soon you won’t be in a position to enforce anything.
Your time is over, thank God.
Enjoy your own 1991.
whoa on Mon, 27th Apr 2020 3:26 pm
i wish i had money to try muzzie ck. i’m always late to the game. i was looking for lib urns and it’s almost a year now im still without a lib urn. with beervius it’s gone for good now
i said i wanna try muzzie ck but a quick check on amazon it’s way beyond my affordability.
im stuck with (((supremetard)))’s ck i guess. this sux ballz guyes
i still cant buy lib urns and now they panic buy lib orbs too on Wed, 10th Jan 2024 3:55 pm
anyone got lib urns to sell?
whoa on Mon, 27th Apr 2020 3:26 pm
i wish i had money to try muzzie ck. i’m always late to the game. i was looking for lib urns and it’s almost a year now im still without a lib urn. with beervius it’s gone for good now
i said i wanna try muzzie ck but a quick check on amazon it’s way beyond my affordability.
im stuck with (((supremetard)))’s ck i guess. this sux ballz guyes