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Page added on June 8, 2012
OPEC output: another jump as the oil group gets ready to meet
OPEC is meeting in Vienna next week, and suddenly, it might have to talk about too much oil on world markets. That wasn’t the case a few months ago, and the agenda has shifted.
Here’s another way to look at the numbers OPEC faces. The Platts estimate of OPEC output for May is 31.75 million b/d. The International Energy Agency projects that the world’s “call” for OPEC oil in the second quarter is 29.6 million b/d. The call is the amount needed to keep inventories steady; it’s calculated by estimating world demand, subtracting non-OPEC output and OPEC NGL production.
That output is more than the call is not surprising for the second quarter; that’s part of the traditional ebb and flow of oil production, with an inventory build in the second quarter. But a simple look at the Platts’ estimate on OPEC and the second quarter call could indicate a build of roughly 2 million b/d. All recent estimates of what the second quarter build were in past years puts it at less than 1 million b/d.
That’s probably too basic, but these still are the numbers that OPEC faces as it heads off to Austria.
4 Comments on "OPEC output: another jump as the oil group gets ready to meet"
cottager on Fri, 8th Jun 2012 10:18 pm
So nice 🙂
Harquebus on Sat, 9th Jun 2012 1:36 am
They have to keep prices high. If they don’t, the hard to get stuff becomes nonviable which, would result in a supply crunch and total economic collapse.
The more likely scenario is continued economic decay until the overpopulation problem is address. We can survive without oil but, not with 7 billion people.
BillT on Sat, 9th Jun 2012 2:38 am
Harque…we are going to contract until we get back to a pre-oil economy. Whether it takes decades or just years is the only unknown, but it will happen. Renewables will never last much beyond the last barrel of oil. They cannot.
As for the people, the four horsemen are saddling up for their ride and when they get back to the stable, population will be less than 1 billion. Wait and see.
Harquebus on Sat, 9th Jun 2012 4:32 pm
BillT.
I reckon 1.5 to 2.5 billion but, who’s counting?