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Page added on March 7, 2014
OPEC oil output: a big jump, lifted by Iraq
Crude oil production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) climbed by 240,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 30.11 million b/d in February from 29.87 million b/d in January following a surge in Iraqi exports and despite new setbacks in Libya, a just-released Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials and analysts showed.
“These are the sorts of output numbers that not long okago, when combined with the rising production from North America, looked like they might weigh on the market and cause a fall in prices,” said John Kingston, Platts global director of news. “In particular, the Iraq numbers are surprising, given that output there has been troubled in recent months. And yet, West Texas Intermediate crude is solidly above $100, Brent prices are up near $110, and world inventories have been drawing sharply. With all of this supply at the ready and prices greater than $100 per barrel, it might be time to review some of that conventional wisdom.”
The February total is the highest since August 2013, when the Platts survey estimated output at 30.28 million b/d.
With the Basrah terminal in full operation and weather conditions good throughout the month, Iraq’s southern export average of 2.5 million b/d was the highest rate since 1979.
The 390,000 b/d increment from Iraq was boosted by smaller increases from Angola, Iran and Nigeria.
However, Libyan output declined again as fluctuating levels of unrest forced the key Sharara field to close again and total output to fall from 600,000 b/d early in February to just 230,000 b/d late in the month. Having climbed to an average 530,000 b/d in January from 250,000 b/d in December, Libyan output fell back in February to average 360,000 b/d.
Libya’s oil sector has been disrupted intermittently by strikes and protests since late May 2013. Earlier last year output had recovered to around 1.4 million b/d from virtually zero in 2011 during the uprising against Moammar Qadhafi.
Smaller output dips came from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.
OPEC’s February total leaves it overproducing its 30 million b/d crude output ceiling, which has been in place since January 2012. The ceiling is largely notional, however, as it does not include individual country quotas but covers Iraqi production. Iraq has not participated in any OPEC distribution of output quotas since August 1990.
The February total is also 500,000 b/d greater than OPEC’s own 29.6 million b/d expectation of demand for its crude this year and more than 900,000 b/d higher than the oil producer group’s estimate of the call on its crude in the first half of 2014.
The International Energy Agency last month also pegged the average 2014 call on OPEC at 29.6 million b/d but said it expected demand in the second half of the year to average 30 million b/d, around 1 million b/d higher than the projected first-half call.
For production numbers by country, click here. You may be prompted for a cost-free one-time-only log-in registration. An OPEC guide may be found at this link.
Platts OPEC and oil experts are available for media interviews; please consult the Platts Media Center to schedule an interview.
18 Comments on "OPEC oil output: a big jump, lifted by Iraq"
MSN fanboy on Fri, 7th Mar 2014 8:34 pm
Looks like the Iraq war is finally paying off, about time.
Poordogabone on Fri, 7th Mar 2014 11:43 pm
10 years of war, 1 trillion US $ spent, countless lives destroyed, Iraq is now pumping at pre war level, way to go.
I’m sure it paid off big time for private contractors and weapon manufacturers. For the rest of us not so much.
ghung on Sat, 8th Mar 2014 12:16 am
I know most people don’t care much, but I wonder what the EROEI is, factoring in the war, thousands of lives, destroyed infrastructure, and ongoing security to bring that oil to market. Just dividing the number of barrels produced into the amount of money spent in the last 11 years, that’s sure to be some pricey oil. It’s OK though; the costs have been ‘socialized’.
rollin on Sat, 8th Mar 2014 1:40 am
Where are the exports going?
Nony on Sat, 8th Mar 2014 2:22 am
Iraq war incredibly costly and wasteful. And I say this as a hawk who bought into doing it. I was wrong.
Makati1 on Sat, 8th Mar 2014 3:58 am
Every tank of gasoline in the US has blood in it. American and foreign.
“Fill Er Up!”
westexas on Sat, 8th Mar 2014 3:58 am
Depletion marches on. . .
OPEC 12 net exports increased at 6.6%/year and their ECI Ratio* increased at 2.0%/year from 2002 to 2005, as annual Brent crude oil prices approximately doubled from $25 in 2002 to $55 in 2005.
Their net exports were essentially flat from 2005 to 2012 (28.3 mbpd in 2005 and 28.0 mbpd in 2012, total petroleum liquids + other liquids, EIA), as annual Brent crude oil prices doubled from $55 in 2005 to $112 in 2012. Their ECI ratio fell from 5.37 in 2005 to 4.34 in 2012, a rate of decline of 3%/year.
Based on the 2005 to 2012 rate of decline in the OPEC 12 ECI Ratio, I estimate that they have collectively shipped about 25% of their post-2005 Cumulative Net Exports of oil (CNE) in only seven years.
*Ratio of production to consumption
Northwest Resident on Sat, 8th Mar 2014 5:24 am
Here is a detailed history of oil development in Iraq. They appear to have immense production potential, and of the “easy to get” variety.
For those who think that the Iraq war was a waste of lives and treasure, there is an argument to be made that in cold calculating terms, to some powerful interests, the war WAS worth it. America now controls Iraq oil, and has troops and equipment staged at numerous bases around the region. I’m guessing that the people who planned and executed the Iraq war probably see it as a success, though one gained at a much higher cost than originally anticipated. We can only speculate why TPTB thought it was so important to secure Iraqi oil and to position powerful military forces throughout the area, but it probably isn’t too far from accurate to speculate that getting a lock on a vast source of oil, as well as protecting other vital sources of oil, had a lot to do with it.
And it doesn’t take a genius to understand why TPTB would think it so critical to get a lock on that vast oil supply asap.
…
“Iraq may prove to have one of the greatest endowed petroleum resource bases in the world, with potential oil reserves in excess of 215bn barrels and ultimate proven reserves in the region of 150bn barrels. Moreover, its finding and development costs are low, amongst the lowest in the Middle East. However, its historical maximum production rate in any one year has not exceeded 3.5mn b/d.
…
Iraq is endowed with large enough oil and gas resources to be on a par with Saudi Arabia. However, neither its past nor present developed production capacity has been commensurate with the wealth of its reserves. Iraq’s truncated production history is a witness to its geopolitical history, and illustrates how oil and politics are intertwined.”
http://www.mees.com/en/articles/5011-iraq-s-oil-history-prospects-and-limitations
Makati1 on Sat, 8th Mar 2014 7:49 am
“China’s Imports From Iraq Rose Roughly 50% Last Year”
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303802904579334411874909686
Interesting.
US investment: $1,000,000,000,000.00+ and 5,000+ American lives got the US zero advantage over Iraqi oil. Chinese are using Walmart dollars to buy up oil fields and investments in Iraq.
MSN fanboy on Sat, 8th Mar 2014 7:50 am
I agree NorthWest, if only the Americans commited an Iraq genocide all that oil could be liberated.
They must hate being the ‘good guys’
MSN fanboy on Sat, 8th Mar 2014 8:06 am
And Makati, you should know any oil coming onto market helps America. That slight more supply is the difference between 100 dollar oil and 130 dollar oil.
GregT on Sat, 8th Mar 2014 9:17 am
“America now controls Iraq oil, and has troops and equipment staged at numerous bases around the region.”
Sorry NWR,
America does not control Iraqi oil, the powers that control America, control Iraqi oil. The troops. equipment, and bases, are nothing more than American tax payers dollars being put to work, for people that could give a rats ass about Americans. They will continue to put Americans in harms way, to do nothing more than feather their own nests.
Americans are mere cash cows for TPTB. Or perhaps more appropriately, cash sheep.
Makati1 on Sat, 8th Mar 2014 10:35 am
Sorry MSN, I think oil should be $500 not $100, so the system crashes before the resources are all gone. But I doubt you can see the logic in that statement.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 8th Mar 2014 11:58 am
NR I agree with the tone of your article. We can Monday morning quarterback all day long but the old Iraq regime was bent on regional destabilization. It was a long term security nightmare for the US. The neocons with Cheney as a leader new the PO implications. They didn’t yet realize the shale boom though. When one realizes the status quo BAU is totally reliant on a goldilocks oil supply and price for a minimum growth needed by BAU, we see Iraq stability is of the highest importance. The neocons are devils in my book and the totally miscalculated the reality on the ground but in the above ground oil thinking they were right on.
Makati, China buys a quarter of Iraq oil. It ME oil imports puts it at a very distinct disadvantage in in oil security considering how quickly this oil could be shut off and China would have little recourse with very little blue water navy and little troop air lift capability. There Walmart dollars also include all the food they buy from the US that helps feed their overshoot population. I might add the Walmart dollars would be easy to shut off. Much of what is coming out of China is cheap consumer items that Americans don’t need. Or The US imports of toxic unsafe food from polluted China. A china with little worry about unsafe food. The US should shut this down for safety reasons
Northwest Resident on Sat, 8th Mar 2014 3:48 pm
GregT — “America does not control Iraqi oil, the powers that control America, control Iraqi oil.”
Ok, you got me on a technicality. Good point.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 8th Mar 2014 3:52 pm
“The neocons are devils in my book and the totally miscalculated the reality on the ground…”
As in, “they will greet us in the streets with flowers”, “Iraqi oil will pay for the war”, and “Mission Accomplished.” Total miscalculation? Looks like it.
Makati1 on Sun, 9th Mar 2014 3:23 am
China is ‘investing’ all over the world in dangerous places. How else are they going to get rid of the hundreds of billions of shrinking dollars they take in every year?
If you were forced to accept a shrinking currency, you too would be spending it as fast as you can on things of value. I suspect that the Chinese, being obviously/visibly NOT Western, would have a lot less trouble than any Western country would in the Middle East or Africa.
Poordogabone on Sun, 9th Mar 2014 7:15 pm
At least we got any oil exporting country to have second thoughts about selling their oil in euros.
So you can say that the main objective of the war was accomplished.
I’m not sure how the US or PTB is “controlling Iraq oil” I must have missed something. Don’t they sell the stuff to the highest bidder like China for instance?
And the Kurds are doing whatever they want with it bypassing Bagdad.