Oil glut up by half a billion barrels in 2015

31 Comments on "Oil glut up by half a billion barrels in 2015"

penury on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 8:50 am 



I am certain that this is good news for the world. With all the excess energy being stored the world can stop some of the resource wars and the migrating millions can go home again as the world will be a happier place. Mu actual forecast is thinks will go catty wonkus, within six months. Really . Not a predicition just an observation based upon current conditions.

ghung on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 9:02 am 



“The world’s big oil exporters pumped more than half a billion barrels more crude than needed in the first nine months of this year…”

So in 9 months the world produced around a whopping 6 day surplus? Quite the glut, that.

BobInget on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 9:31 am 



I agree with the two previous commentators.

Adding, It’s all gone, that glut, except for a huge mound of sulfur a carload of tires and plastics, we done burnt it up.

Next question?

Besides the tires, fertilizer and plastics what lasting good came from that ‘extra’ half billion
barrels that would not have existed under $100
oil?

What permanent damage ?
Will full recovery be possible ?
How many lives sacrificed ?

How many more billions in excess profits get concentrated with the world’s one percent ?

makati1 on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 10:43 am 



Penury, I suspect that your 6 months is about spot on. I suspect that the market is going to remain ‘over supplied’ until war or financial collapse happens. I think 2016 is going to be a very exciting year. Even more so than this year has been, so far.

Plantagenet on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 10:43 am 



I wonder why people here are so resistant to accepting reality. Clearly the world is in an oil glut—I’ve been pointing that out for almost a year now—and yet some people still don’t get it. As the article shows, the glut is currently about 1.7 million bbls per day. Under these conditions its certainly possible we’ll see another large drop in oil prices—maybe down to the 30s.

Cheers!

Dave Thompson on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 10:52 am 



Plant your “resistant to accepting reality” of the fact that you are a jackass is epic.

twocats on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 11:21 am 



One question is whether the allocation of resources to producing oil people don’t want (and artificially supporting oil prices? – cause you gotta invest in something when you have extra money you don’t need?) will continue or whether those sources will run dry and there will be a major down-cycle for oil producers. The first route would allow oil production to remain high and for oil prices to limp along in the 40 – 60 range indefinitely (i.e. one to five years depending on the depletion model of your choice) and we will simply have no way of telling if we are at peak oil or not. The second route would create an initial plunge in oil price as havoc tore through the industry, but would clear out excess production, and restart the cycle leading to higher prices and peak oil would be truly tested again.

But another question is about the business cycle itself, consumption trends, and growth. Through a combination of a decline in net energy available to the world engine and the global project of artificially supporting markets to prevent any and every downturn, it’s possible that the business cycle has been all-but eliminated, and that there won’t be any more recessions or expansions, that demand will neither greatly increase nor greatly reduce, and that systems will just sort of meander like so many walking dead, seeming to survive interminably longer than anyone could have possibly imagined. As net energy continues to decline certain sectors, states, countries, groups would be excommunicated from the spigot (see Greece or Illinois state pensioners), but this would only affect those slices of society. The rest would continue pretty much as they are now. A bit like a Medieval Period.

antaris on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 11:22 am 



I guess if I have more than 6 days worth of food in the pantry, I have a glut of food.That 6 days worth could disappear rather quick if the food truck has problems which would piss me off, since I spent 9 months building it up.

GregT on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 11:43 am 



More like 6 days surplus worth of cat-food at the local supermarket, at a price that would require you to take out a second mortgage on your home.

Plantagenet on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 11:51 am 



@Dave Thompson

Your refusal to acknowledge the world is in an oil glut just shows you are a dope.

Why do you want to live in a fantasy world?—I suggest you embrace reality and live in the real world.

Cheers!

twocats on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 11:59 am 



I’m not disagreeing Plant (and to the other side as well!), but you also have to consider what it currently takes to create that glut.

Thought experiment: what if humanity decided that increasing oil production was simply the most important thing in the world, and every available school (training), person, machine, dollar, was devoted to oil production. I’m talking about actively melting the arctic with nuclear power to search for oil, the whole shebang. Could we get a significant bump up in oil production and have a massive glut? Of course.

So this whole notion of a glut vs no-glut is pretty meaningless.

Mike616 on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 12:02 pm 



Oil prices won’t rise again until RUSSIA cuts production. They’ve burned the Saudi’s before.

If you see Russia make meaningful production cuts then you can predict prices will rise, not before.

antaris on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 12:21 pm 



When they are running for their life they won’t slow down.

GregT on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 1:27 pm 



“Plant your “resistant to accepting reality” of the fact that you are a jackass is epic.”

Seconded.

BC on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 4:00 pm 



As the world economy rolls over further into another deflationary recession, and the US-China, last-man-standing, end-game scenario moves closer to conflict in the Pacific, blockades, and embargoes, the notion that there was ever effectively an oil “glut” will be perceived for what it is: misinformed, infantile, and inane.

But, heck, what do I know . . . ??? 😀

BC on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 4:54 pm 



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-15/schlumberger-most-severe-downturn-decades-recovery-now-appears-be-delayed

China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Oz, Canada, Brazil, Russia, and parts of the EZ are in recession, and US mfg. is now in recession.

Some eCONomists say not to worry, mates, because services are holding up. But what they neglect to say is that the service sector (finance, health care, education, and gov’t) in most advanced countries has become a net cost to the rest of the economy. Therefore, services are growing at the expense of the rest of the private sector, which is contributing to the decelerating rate of demand, as well as the recession-like collapse in the acceleration of the velocity of money, which is at the deepest contraction since 2008, 2001, and the recession since the early 1980s.

It’s not a “glut” of oil worldwide but a dearth of growth of demand and circulation of money, i.e., revenues, profits, incomes, and gov’t receipts to GDP.

Boat on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 4:59 pm 



BC,

More likely they will think…I knew I should have bought one of them 1,000 gal tanks.

Boat on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 5:18 pm 



BC,

http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=53&aid=1&cid=ww,&syid=2010&eyid=2014&unit=TBPDrs

Oil production has grown at a pretty steady pace the last few years. A dip in 2013 and a recovery in 2014. You can’t blame $40 oil and a glut on that. Can you?

onlooker on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 5:38 pm 



Reminds me of a magician. What do they say that a magician works with sleight of hand or distraction. Look here, all the while something is going on somewhere else. Oil glut yes. War posturing, unemployment, desperate migration, overextended debt, fictitious money etc. that is to not be seen by the gullible masses!

BC on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 5:39 pm 



https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=29JG

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=29JK

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=29Jl

Above is evidence of what the TBTE banksters have been doing as they instructed the Yellen Fed to incessantly talk up a hike in the reserve rate.

The TBTE banks anticipated another global deflationary recession as long as a year ago and began acting on it.

IOW, they have been instructing the Fed to talk rate hike in order to keep Treasury and agency rates higher and prices lower than otherwise so they can buy at a discount and later sell to the Fed at a premium when the Fed resumes QEternity and NIRP during the next recession (having already begun) in order to fund larger deficits to prevent nominal GDP from contracting with deflation.

The Fed’s job is to run political cover for the TBTE banks’ license to steal, and in the process fool the vast majority of the people all of the time.

Davy on Thu, 15th Oct 2015 7:56 pm 



BC, too big to fail banks are all that is left. If you say rid the world of them in effect you are saying lets follow them off the cliff. There are no other options. This whole tragedy is irreversible. The same is true with fossil fuels again irreversible. If you don’t mind a few billion deaths lets ride off the cliff with them. It is going to happen sooner or later why not now? Or, do we try to organize many small plan B’s while there are the resources for it? We are great at pointing fingers but none of us has a solution that will not lead to collapse. Are you ready to ride ’em over into the abyss?

BC on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 12:28 am 



Davy, I cannot disagree in the context of the way the system has evolved and that the “winners” have rigged it so that they can’t be permitted to fail or thus take the rest of us over into the abyss.

But their winning is by now costing everyone else and the planet’s ecosystem on which we depend for survival.

A 100% reserved fiat system could conceivably function for the benefit of the vast majority. However, gov’ts could not expect to run deficits of 3-5% to 10% of GDP to inflate the money supply in order to tax and spend for imperial expansion on behalf of their clients, the supranational corporations.

GregT on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 1:50 am 



“Are you ready to ride ’em over into the abyss?”

The question is Davy; Are you ready? Because it should be painfully obvious by now that there isn’t a plan B. Other than yours, or mine, or others like us.

If you think that there is any hope of waking people up, then you’d better start shouting out against the status quo, instead of supporting it. Not that that is likely to make a difference anyways. People are already way too far gone. Especially in both of our countries.

onlooker on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 2:52 am 



It is way too late for any Plan B. The chips will fall where they fall. Only thing we on this board can do is recommend to everyone to take their individual and community precautions and preparations seriously and do not delay much longer. It is true saving humanity is beyond the scope of anyone or anything now. Just look out for yourself and your loved ones and be part of some like minded community or group.

makati1 on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 5:41 am 



The sooner it all collapses and shuts down the burning of hydrocarbons, the better chance that our kids and theirs may survive and have enough to continue the species. But it is more likely to snow in hell.

And, yes I am well aware of the consequences if the TBTF banks go. I still think tomorrow would be a good day for it to happen. Get it over with, and move on. What better way to cull the herd? Better than nukes.

Davy on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 6:05 am 



Gregger you are probably less prepared than I am just now getting out of the big shitty with your trucks, rv’s, and boats. You sold your million dollar house now you are living semi-retired. You probably have a nicer place than I do Gregger. You are allot of talk but you are just getting started with work that takes years. You can bash my family as you have in the past but they have their life and I have mine. I am doing fine and not complaining but you are complaining about me for me. That is bullshit. What are you jealous?

I don’t need your fucking ball busting Greg where you come on here and repeat what I say in a condescending way like it is something I don’t understand. I have said multiple times there is no plan B Gregger so fuck off. I don’t need an asshole Canadian trumpeting what I need to do. I am not supporting the status quo any more than you are. You just can’t stand that I try to level the playing field for all you uptight asshole anti-Americans that gang bang anyone with anything of value to say for the US.

You don’t live down here and you do not understand my life. None of you Canadians do. You guys spend your day’s ball busting the Americans. That is fine with the bigger picture because that goes with the territory (curtesy of Ape Man) but you have no clue about my life Gregger so stay out of it.

I am ready to start picking apart your comments. If that is what you want bring it on. I am on here enough to be a constant harassment. I am not popular being an American so you are not going to piss me off with whatever you say. You can have 10 people chime in on your behalf and I could give a shit. You anti-American gang bangers like to be a dog pack. That makes you bangers feel strong. Can you make it in the minority? Can you stand up for your home and people when so many hate you?

Davy on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 6:40 am 



BC, I am constantly bringing up this subject you mention. My point is are we ready to pull the trigger? Do we really have a clue how this is going to play out? I would equate it to going into surgery with an experimental operation that has a lowish probability of survival.

I have been here on this board for over two years now daily discussing these very things. Those of us routinely here that are doomers and preppers understand what is driving us towards collapse. What we don’t have is any answer about what is next other than collapse and what collapse means. We have a broad view but there is no way to know the details.

I am not ready to pull the trigger but I know the self-destruct mechanism is ready regardless of trigger pulling. Not that I have that ability of course but I am commenting on how I feel about pulling the trigger on that “neutron bomb” of collapse so to speak.

I know our earth ecosystem and social fabric need a change. Our global system natural and human is in disequilibrium and irreversible. Any major changes will destroy what we have. What we have is feeding us, keeping us warm, and moving us around.

BC, this is nothing new to you. I am musing about ending the status quo and making the point when the status quo ends billions will die of starvation. This will happen relatively quickly if we do not have structures in place to mitigate and adapt to the descent. We have very few structures in place. I am asking should we try to have more. Do we throw up our hands and admit defeat? We have to watch out for a descent that is too steep in degree and duration. We are in a position to go extinct. Extinction is a process so who knows what kind of hell on earth will be let lose.

Revi on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 7:13 am 



We all need to get some monster trucks and start burning up this glut!

Kenz300 on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 7:24 am 



Electric vehicles, bicycles and mass transit are the future…….

How The Decline Of Cars Is Changing Cities For The Better

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/car-decline-cities_561f34dae4b0c5a1ce620dd9

BobInget on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 10:57 am 



AGW Causing Diesel Shortages:

By Chris Arsenault

YELLOWKNIFE, Northwest Territories, Canada (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – Climate change is taking a heavy economic toll on Canada’s far north, with buildings collapsing as melting permafrost destroys foundations, rivers running low and wildfires all a drain on the region’s limited finances, senior government officials said.

A sprawling area spanning the Arctic Circle with a population of less than 50,000, Canada’s Northwest Territories has spent more than $140 million in the last two years responding to problems linked to global warming, the territory’s finance minister said.

“Our budgets are getting squeezed dramatically from climate change,” Finance and Environment Minister J. Michael Miltenberger told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

“The roads are constantly moving as the permafrost is melting… massive shore erosion is putting buildings at risk. We have spent hundreds of millions of dollars in the past few years and the tie to climate change is more and more evident.”

In this windswept territory, which already relies on central government subsidies, responding to global warming is crucial for its financial survival.

A major U.N. conference in Paris in December will aim to create a new global deal to curb climate change to take effect from 2020.

Scientists want to keep international temperature rises below 2 degrees compared with pre-industrial levels, while providing poor countries with money for adaptation.

But in parts of the Northwest Territories, average temperatures have already risen more than three degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels, government officials said.

“In Paris, we are hoping for whatever it takes to turn this (climate change) around,” politician Bob Bromley told the Thomson Reuters Foundation in the territorial capital, Yellowknife.

“It’s going to require all hands on deck, and willing hands.”

DIESEL DEPENDENCE

The delicate ecosystem of the wide-skied territory, home to the indigenous Dene people, and where wolves, caribou and bison roam, has been plunged into a environmental vicious cycle.

Climate change has been linked to decreased water levels in the territory’s major rivers, partly due to greater evaporation, causing a sharp contraction in hydro electric power generation.

As a result, the government has had to import more diesel, borrowing about $30 million this year alone to make up for the electricity shortfall, hurting its budget and increasing climate-warming emissions in a catastrophic feedback loop.

“It’s not sustainable,” said Miltenberger, the finance and environment minister.

He called on Canada’s national government to provide more financial help for climate change mitigation, particularly in renewable power, to reduce the costs of importing diesel.

With a small population, and high operating costs due to its size and climate, the territory’s main employers are diamond mining and the public sector. The region’s indigenous people rely on the hunting of caribou as a key food source, but herds are declining, with climate change likely a significant driver.

Northwest Territories receives financial transfer payments of about $1.3 billion, or about $29,000 per resident, from Canada’s national government to run public services.

Craig Scott, executive director of Ecology North, a Yellowknife-based environmental group, believes the government should have invested earlier in renewable energy.

Fuel trucks hauling diesel along gravel roads to small rural communities are a common site across the territory.

Generators have been working around the clock following the decline in hydro power, Scott said, and new holding tanks had to be imported to store the diesel.

“Renewable energies (including) micro hydro, solar and biomass have high capital costs in the short-term,” Scott told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. “But they are sustainable versus the long-term pain of diesel.”

This report was produced with support from the Internews Earth Journalism Network.

(Reporting By Chris Arsenault by Ros Russell; please add:; Please credit the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters, that covers humanitarian news, women’s rights, trafficking, corruption and climate change. Visit http://www.trust.org)

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Roman on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 9:35 pm 



It doesn’t matter how much oil is above ground. It’s just a waste of land to store it when that land could be used for something productive. Only peak oil date matters.