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Page added on February 13, 2012
Mr. Darcy’s earth shattering results
A flashback to history provides the background we need to understand why there is a technological revolution happening in the oil and gas industry and why peak oil theorists may need to go back to math class.
Imagine a Help Wanted poster that reads something like: “Able bodied and fearless worker willing to fill thin metal tubes with nitroglycerine. Successful applicant will be required to drop said tubes down oil wells. Preference will be given to those who can run fast. Explosions could maim or kill. No pension plan. Apply at head office for the position of Shooter.”
Welcome to ‘fracking,’ circa 1880. Back then it was called ‘shooting’ or ‘torpedoing’ a well, a procedure that was common in the early days of the oil and gas industry. Like today, the shooter’s objective of a century past was to shatter ‘tight,’ impermeable, oil-bearing rocks to make the coveted hydrocarbons flow to the surface faster, and ring in the revenue sooner. Yet unlike today, blowing up the bottom of an oil well often resulted in catastrophic damage to the hole, rendering the well useless with little more than a quick surge in production. Surely, there had to be easier ways to improve the flow.
Enter Mr. Darcy. Not the pent-up romantic in Jane Austen’s Pride and Prejudice, but rather the start-up mechanic, Henry Philibert Gaspard Darcy (1803-1858), a French engineer, who derived a famous law of fluid physics that bears his name.
Darcy’s Law, as applied to an oil well, says that the proprietor can do three things to improve the flow of his hydrocarbon treasure: (1) increase the pressure difference between the oil at the bottom of the hole relative to the surface; (2) enlarge the contact area between the sides of the well bore and the oil-bearing rock; or (3) open up the pores in the rock to channel more oil into the well (otherwise known as increasing the ‘permeability’).
For the first 100 years of the industry, up to about the mid-20th century, oilmen mostly left Darcy’s Law to nature. Back then it was relatively easy to find high-quality oil reservoirs with high enough pressure and permeability to push the fluid all the way up a vertical hole in the ground with no artificial intervention. But by the 1960s, it was getting harder to find wells that naturally optimized Darcy’s formula. After most of the high-pressure ‘gushers’ had been discovered (and brought under control by John Wayne) human intervention was needed to juice Darcy’s Law – without destroying the well, of course.
Engineers dusted off Darcy’s formula. Tinkering with the pressure dimension was the first place to start. Pumps and compressors were introduced on wells to either push or suck the hydrocarbons out of the ground with greater and greater vigor. Techniques included pumping water down into oil reservoirs, a common practice called ‘water flooding,’ that pushed trapped oil up a producing well.
Progressively higher-powered pumps, compressors and processes were developed over the next several decades with impressive results that brought on more oil production at relatively low cost. Yet, amidst the improvements, Darcy’s Law was still mostly untapped by human ingenuity. There were still two more dimensions ripe for tinkering. And so, in the 1970s, clever engineers began earnestly drilling wells not just vertically, perpendicularly through flatly oriented rocks, but also horizontally by bending the well 90 degrees through the oily formations.
Although the first horizontal wells go back to the 1940s, it was the emergence of new guidance technologies and tools (and an oil crisis) that championed the process 40 years ago. Result: the surface area of the well bore was greatly expanded, because the oil-bearing rock was being tracked instead of just being punctured at discrete locations. Consequently, Darcy’s second prescription for enhancing flow was now in play.
Many fold improvements in production were realized from horizontal drilling signaling another renewal; however, what was exciting for the engineer was sometimes chilling for the financier, because a corresponding multiple in investment returns was not always forthcoming. In other words, the added production from a horizontally drilled well often did not justify the added expense with the prevailing technologies of the day. As a result, horizontal drilling was employed only about 15% of the time, until the dawn of the 21st century.
Peak oil theorists, among others, have held to the notion that the diminishing number of gushers found over time, combined with progressively ‘maturing’ wells that can’t be pumped any harder, ultimately point to irreversible, downward trend lines for oil production. In part, this belief has assumed that rock permeability is a geological fixture that human ingenuity could not easily alter. Merit remains in some peak oil arguments, but in the last 10 years the industry has come full circle on Darcy’s Law, a largely unexpected event. No retro futurist, except those driven by ingenuity, counted on a resurgence of modern day ‘torpedoing’; in other words, man’s ability to inflict large-scale changes to Darcy’s calculus of flow through large-scale changes to permeability.
Hydraulic fracturing, or ‘fracking’ in the parlance, is now being applied to horizontal wells with greater and greater precision. Tools, techniques and digital sensing equipment provide modern day ‘shooters’ with an ability to increase the permeability of deep rocks with remarkable control and accuracy. Mating fracking with horizontal drilling and pressure-enhancing production equipment means that the industry has entered an era when human intervention can alter and optimize all three variables inscribed in Darcy’s Law. In short, tinkering one more time with a 150-year old mathematical equation is fracturing our long-held assumptions of how much crude oil and natural gas is exploitable through innovation.
Hydraulic fracturing is truly an ‘earth-shattering’ advance that has already shown its disruptive potential in North American natural gas supply and is showing similar patterns of change on the oil side too (see for example, Calgary Herald Blog Post, February 6th, 2012). If past tinkering with Darcy’s Law is any indication of future potential, the oil and gas industry is once again on a path to renewal for several decades to come.
15 Comments on "Mr. Darcy’s earth shattering results"
Beery on Tue, 14th Feb 2012 12:12 am
“If past tinkering with Darcy’s Law is any indication of future potential, the oil and gas industry is once again on a path to renewal for several decades to come.”
Months, certainly. Years, perhaps. But decades? I doubt it. Fracking merely shatters the ice at the bottom of the soda glass, giving us a last gulp that seems promising at first, but which ends in a disappointing half-swallow.
cusano on Tue, 14th Feb 2012 12:54 am
Unfortunately, this technique is expensive, and produces low yields that quickly evaporate. No one should think that we’re running out of oil. We’re not. When the energy it takes to get it, exceeds the energy that it produces…..we have a problem. Guess what? We have a problem coming at us like a runaway locomotive.
DC on Tue, 14th Feb 2012 1:02 am
Not one mention that fraking is even more toxic, costly and offers lower net energy than the ‘conventional’ oil it is supposed to be replacing. I have no doubt people in 1880 dis-approved of ‘torpedoing’ just like we disapprove of fraking now. Our reasons now may be more nuanced, but the basic idea im sure was the same. 1880 or 1980 or 2010, underground explosions are never popular with people, especially if you live near it. But oddly, I dont see one mention of the downside of fraking in this fluff piece…mmmmm
Rick on Tue, 14th Feb 2012 1:07 am
This article is PURE propaganda! This is what Peak Oil looks like. Things are not getting better, despite the spin, I mean lies. The only people with jobs in the US, are direct GOV jobs, or GOV tied jobs, which includes healthcare, NRG, actually take away the GOV, most would be out of a job. And BTW, despite the financial fraud, it’s all tied to Peak Oil.
Tip — Get out of debt if you can, before it’s too late.
BillT on Tue, 14th Feb 2012 1:18 am
Before I read a piece like this, I drop down and look at the source. You can tell the slant by the signer of the author’s paycheck.
“…The paper was first published in 1883 as The Calgary Herald, Mining and Ranche Advocate and General Advertiser…” Bingo! Mining news.
It is currently owned by GoldenTree Asset Management, LP, an investment firm, not a news company. Bingo! the paper is used to push investment possibilities as
‘news’ when it is actually advertising for select investments.
Now, which way do you think the article is slanted?
SOS on Tue, 14th Feb 2012 1:22 am
None of the assertions made in the replys so far are entirely true. The volume of the oil bearing rock in the Bakken formation and the oil it holds is mind boggling. Its a huge reserve, among the largest in the world. Its not a last sip, its a whole new soda fountain.
The assertion the oil is expensive is not wrong, it just doesnt matter. Right now the oil field needs infrastructure. Thats expensive to build. Oil field development is expensive. Our budgets are adjusting to the higher costs. Once developed costs drop dramatically, and my my guess is, some of todays price is driven by cost.
Comparing hydraulic fracking to old time torpedoing is not accurate. In the old days wells were very shallow, the explosions violent and the damage real. Now the wells are over a mile deep, facking is a gentle cracking employing abrasives, pressure and water. Objections to it are mostly political or ideological. There is no evidence I have ever seen showing modern fracking to be harmful in any way.
The oil coming out of the bakken formation is some of the best crude in the world. In about 5 years there will be enough to go around. Right now production is on a strong upward trend and has been for a number of years.
SOS on Tue, 14th Feb 2012 1:26 am
Ps. One more thing. Most of the oil being produced has to be trucked to rail, Burlington Northern trains owned by Warren Buffet. There are pipelines in the area now, but they are at capacity. The new pipline just cancelled would have cost Buffets trains a lot of haul money. Ever wonder why he started shilling for the President?
Beery on Tue, 14th Feb 2012 2:51 am
“The oil coming out of the bakken formation is some of the best crude in the world. In about 5 years there will be enough to go around. Right now production is on a strong upward trend and has been for a number of years.”
Then how is it that older individual fracked wells already seem to be starting to dry up? The only reason the Bakken is on an upward trend is that they are fracking many more new wells. So far, they have ten new wells for every older one, so when an older one starts to run dry, it doesn’t matter. But…
Once the fields are saturated, this ‘best crude in the world’ is gonna peter out – and at the current rate they’re pushing investment into Bakken, that won’t be long. I give it two years before it becomes obvious to everyone that Bakken is merely a pipe dream.
MrEnergyCzar on Tue, 14th Feb 2012 4:24 am
They’ll say the same thing about the oil on Titan…
MrEnergyCzar
Benny on Tue, 14th Feb 2012 8:28 am
Both side seems debating heavily on this subject about the shale gas/oil potential.
At the same time its also lack of proof and figures. Since this subject is around for a few years. Is there any web site or data from the government can be found for references?
dorlomin on Tue, 14th Feb 2012 10:19 am
“Hydraulic fracturing is truly an ‘earth-shattering’ advance that has already shown its disruptive potential in North American natural gas supply ”
By seeing a huge drop in rig count and the likely ending of many smaller companies. The gas boom is over and the invisible hand will be beating down those who bought the hype.
kervennic on Tue, 14th Feb 2012 11:35 am
Too bad Maddox went to jail too soon, there was a hell lot of cash to make in oil investement.
SOS on Tue, 14th Feb 2012 7:33 pm
LOL…hydraulic fracking has made natural gas pleantiful and affordable. The supplies are endless on a generation time scale. This is disconcerting to some because it means the legend of peak “enery” is false, we arent doomed and the politics of doom and gloom will have to find another issue, unless of course they can gin up more “research” and a few more issue driven zealots to pass more legeslation restricting supply and keeping prices high. LOL…
BillT on Wed, 15th Feb 2012 12:37 am
SOS, you are a prime example of denial… Fraking is a fad soon to die out along with the gas supplies from it. I would bet you are an investor or pushing investing in it.
SOS on Wed, 15th Feb 2012 5:08 am
Natu4al gas is abundant. There is a huge grass roots conversion going on right now. Major compaines, one by one, are setting up NG infrastructure in partnership with the suppliers.
The big enemies of NG are of course solar and wind, although each has a place, nuclear and coal.
Each is threatened by the abundance of and advantgages of using natural gas. There is nothing wrong with having an abundant and reasonably priced energy source.
Once NG begins to really compete with oil the price of crude will probably drop. Costs of development will be recovered and all will benefit.
In the meantime lets all hope cold fusion pans out.