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Page added on June 29, 2013
Maugeri predicts Saudi America Will Overtake Saudi Arabia As The World’s Top Oil Producer Within A Decade
There’s still some debate about whether America’s shale oil boom is merely an overnight sensation or a true-blue gamechanger — we’ve featured both sides here.
In a new study published by Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, former oil company executive Leonardo Maugeri predicts that for America’s three largest shale oil plays — the Bakken in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford and Permian Basin in Texas — the boom should last at least another decade.
He arrives at that estimate by calculating current well densities — how many wells there are in a given acre of shale play — and improving rig efficiencies, the result of improved drilling times and lower-cost drilling methods. Plus, he writes, new infrastructure coming online will make it cheaper to invest in these plays:
Figures about the Permian basin are still in the making, yet it is possible to figure out that the Big Three U.S. shale plays have a combined potential of many more than 100,000 shale producing wells, or about ten times the number of those already on line. Taking into account this potential, the limits to drilling intensity probably would start affecting BakkenThree Forks and Eagle Ford only in the second half the 2020s.
There remains uncertainty about the rest of the country’s plays. But Maugeri asserts that the U.S. will become the world’s top oil producer within this decade, leapfrogging Russia to topple Saudi Arabia.
10 Comments on "Maugeri predicts Saudi America Will Overtake Saudi Arabia As The World’s Top Oil Producer Within A Decade"
bobinget on Sat, 29th Jun 2013 9:51 pm
The biggest problem is that it’s true. We have at a minimum a decade of hard won but probable light oil and gas. Just as the natural gas industry has an embarrassment of riches causing prices too low to make risk, such as it is, unprofitable. Unless coal plants are made redundant, as soon as gas prices improve to a level of profitability coal will return with a vengeance.
The worst problem we face is the oldest, BAU.
Cheap natural gas is a major depressive force against
renewables. It’s all well to say tight O&G is a passing
fad, but I fear it is not.
Dragon Spawn on Sat, 29th Jun 2013 10:42 pm
To even compare Saudi Arabian oil production to American Shale Oil is just plain ridiculous.
If I remember correctly, the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia has been producing around 5million barrels/day with around 500 wells for a long ass time. The shit Bakken and Eagle plays need 5000wells to produce 500,000 barrels/day.
The only explanation for this type of comparison is deception. Pure and simple deception. Shame on Harvard and Leo M. for whoring themselves out to their corporate overlords. Pathetic.
DC on Sat, 29th Jun 2013 10:45 pm
Maugeri is nothing more than a low-rent Daniel Jerkin. His failure to bother to check his own math, or just new his numbers were bogus and went ahead anyways since they supported his false contention that ‘amerika will produce more oil than S.A’ by next monday.
This is what he gets paid to say….
Norm on Sat, 29th Jun 2013 11:12 pm
Its exactly what far right lunatic crazies want to hear, when they hang out at the gun range and drink beer. Since they want to hear it, then somebody printed it for them. Recent Kunstler columns showcase this delirious fantasy world, believing what ain’t so.
rollin on Sun, 30th Jun 2013 3:18 am
Come on people, it’s Business Insider. No need to take it seriously or even consider it more than a strange kind of entertainment.
Dmyers on Sun, 30th Jun 2013 3:25 am
What we’re seeing is a bunch of Maugerian Candidates aping what their leader says. Maugeri is the Walt Disney of shale oil, making our dreams come true.
On the flipside of the Maugeri dreamscape lies an unfortunate discovery. We’re going to drill our way to Heaven only to find ourselves in Hell.
BillT on Sun, 30th Jun 2013 4:29 am
It’s ALWAYS … Who signs the Paycheck.
GregT on Sun, 30th Jun 2013 5:01 am
Norm,
If Kunstler is correct, those ‘far right lunatic crazies that hang out at the gun range and drink beer’ might be in a much more favourable position than you.
If he is incorrect, you have absolutely nothing to worry about.
Norm on Sun, 30th Jun 2013 8:49 am
Well, could be everybody has got a point. When America turns out to not be Saudi Arabia, all hell breaks loose and lotsa guns sticking out your windows to guard your groceries will be the life of riley. But by then there won’t be any beer anymore too bad.
GregT on Sun, 30th Jun 2013 8:12 pm
If it gets to the point that people will need to defend their groceries with guns, the population cull will happen in a matter of weeks. Most people will not have enough energy to be much of a threat, after only a few days without food. Beer and wine are both very simple to make, and people have made both at home for many centuries. Long before modern industrial society.
Think about it.