Kurds say oil production unaffected by Islamic State incursion

35 Comments on "Kurds say oil production unaffected by Islamic State incursion"

Mike in Calif. on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 5:01 pm 



Here’s what’s really happening. This is a feigned withdrawal that places US assets “at risk”. The Yazidi humanitarian crisis is icing on the cake.

The Kurds and the US have close relations. They are sometimes at odds due to differing interests, but the relationship is very solid. The US had to enter with the Kurds to counter growing Iranian influence and involvement in Iraq’s under-construction, Shiite army. Directly aiding Maliki was out of the question.

The Kurds did not need US help and some deal has been cut behind the scenes. The fallback is fake. The 190,000 strong Peshmerge dwarfs ISIS. It is well-trained, decently equipped, ethnically homogeneous, motivated and can concentrate much more effectively than strung-out ISIS.

ISIS is about to be taught some hard lessons in war. The counter-attack will roughly follow the technique used to route the Taliban by the US/Northern Alliance. Blunt the lead elements with air power. Put them in retreat with enfilading maneuver, then cut ’em up with air strikes and ambushes. The US already had boots on the ground. Intelligence and SF. Likely the plan is already well-developed and just waiting for the air assets to be positioned. To really put fear of the dark into ISIS fighters, the US needs high sortie, night-fighting meatgrinders on the scene (Apache, A-10).

ISIS is shallow, weak, strung-out and not an army to put up a real fight. Aside from its core zealots, ISIS is going to learn that numbers are deceptive in a Sunni-Arab force. The new joiners will be rapid quitters.

This campaign is not just against ISIS, but against Maliki. So the Kurdish counter offensive will probably be limited to leave ISIS in play. I think Obama’s advisers think they can pressure Baghdad with Kurdish and, yes ISIS, strength to force an “inclusive” reform. But I don’t see it working. The partition of Iraq will become even more permanent with the Kurds gaining more territory in the north. ISIS has no long term future though and will eventually be irrelevant (the Sunni element will have to come up with something else).

That’s my prediction. Let’s see how it turns out.

JuanP on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 5:26 pm 



Mike, you have an interesting perspective. I think the Kurds were in trouble for a moment there, but I know I don’t own the truth and your story sounds well researched and extremely plausible. I wouldn’t be surprised if your version of this ends up being closer to the truth than mine. I don’t think the US wants the Kurds to expand their territory any further than they already have, but I think the USA will defend the Kurds within their current borders. We’ll see how it plays out.

Davy on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 5:54 pm 



Mike, very good understanding of the military aspects of local boots on the ground (Peshmerga) with US SF’s and airpower. You can’t beat that combination if you don’t have sophisticated air defenses. ILSIL does not have air defenses other than heavy machines guns. I think the Kurdish financial issues are a bigger problem than your story alludes. They are struggling with funding with a dissolving Iraq and inability to market oil in quantities needed. I would not underestimate the ISIL as an eventual asymmetric guerrilla force yet, like you, I see them as a spent force with conventional attacks being neutralized by US airpower. If the Kurds counterattack I wonder if they will focus on Mosul and the Tigris dam. I find your thoughts interesting on Maliki also. I am sure there is no love lost between the pair. I am sure the DC crowd was pissed with Maliki when Iraqis would not host some US troops mainly SF’s. On the whole an interesting story Mike in stark contrast to many on this forum who talk up the ISIL like they are the Muslim warriors of old sweeping across the ME establishing a great Muslim Caliphate.

bobinget on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 6:03 pm 



God Forbid President O, acting in time to stop further genocide, should get credit.

As the Onion put it this morning “This is not a slippery slope to additional humanitarian aid”.

bobinget on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 6:26 pm 



The following link has a haunting anti war image.

Do not open if you would prefer kittens in socks hanging from clothes lines*.

http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2014/08/the-war-photo-no-one-would-publish/375762/

*For younger readers: A ‘clothes line’ is generally a (long) thin rope strung between two more or less permanent
objects to dry wash in breeze and or sunlight.
AKA: ‘solar dryer’.

bobinget on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 7:25 pm 



Fuel Fix on oil majors – Nigeria
Ebola threatens oil output;

HOUSTON — West Africa’s Ebola outbreak has been limited so far to countries that are relatively minor players in the oil and gas industry, but with new reports of the disease arriving in Nigeria — the continent’s most populous nation and largest oil producer — officials are closely watching the virus’ progress.

Reports have placed the virus in Lagos, Nigeria, Africa’s largest city and a regional transportation hub.

“Should there be a significant outbreak in Lagos, the consequences for the West African oil and gas industry would be massive,” said John Campbell, a senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and U.S. ambassador to Nigeria from 2004 to 2007.

“One would anticipate that the big oil and gas companies would evacuate their expatriate personnel and production would throttle way back.”

The World Health Organization estimated that as of Aug. 4, the virus had infected 1,711 people and killed 932, mostly in the West African countries of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The WHO also reported two probable and seven suspected cases in Nigeria, including one death.

Campbell said that so far the Nigerian government has taken effective action to quarantine infected individuals, but that the virus could overwhelm efforts to contain it.

“Given the importance of Nigeria as the economic hub of West Africa, it would seem possible that the disease would gain a foothold there,” he said. “The authorities are doing all they can to prevent that.”

At that point, the outbreak’s impact on African oil and gas may rise from minor delays to major disruption – in addition to a deadly public health crisis.

Nigeria is the largest oil producer on the continent. International companies operating there include U.S. giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron; Royal Dutch Shell; Italy’s Eni and France’s Total.

The nation ranks 12th worldwide in oil production, at about 2.4 million barrels per day in 2013 , and was the fifth largest net exporter in 2012, according to most recent available statistics from the U.S. Energy Department.

Short of a full, devastating outbreak, foreign companies could be affected by travel bans if they are instituted in affected areas.

Already, British Airways has suspended flights to parts of the West African region and other carriers are screening passengers for symptoms, according to reports.

At a meeting this week in Geneva, the World Health Organization is considering additional options, which could include recommending restrictions on air travel to the affected areas .

Campbell said he would be surprised if air travel restrictions affected Nigeria at this point.

In Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea, the small oil and gas operations that do exist are largely insulated from the ongoing public health crisis.

Chevron, which operates in Sierra Leone and Liberia, said in a written statement that it is continuing to monitor the situation and that its priority remains keeping its workforce healthy.

Exxon Mobil has delayed drilling an exploration well off the coast of Liberia, according to a report by its minority partner in the venture, Calgary, Alberta-based Canadian Overseas Petroleum Ltd.

The drilling was pushed later into the year due to “the reduced presence of expatriates in the country,” and Canadian Overseas is monitoring developments, a spokesman for the company said.

Exxon Mobil told FuelFix that its Monrovia, Liberia office is open and that it is continuing drilling preparations.

In addition to the largest-ever death toll from an Ebola outbreak, the crisis is hitting the affected nations’ economies. Reports estimate Sierra Leone’s economic growth has slipped by around 1 percent.

Davy on Sat, 9th Aug 2014 8:15 pm 



If the virus gets loose in Lagos it will in a short time be lose around the globe with modern air transport as it is. Once it gets lose the systematic disruptions will cause normal business to stop. It remains to be seen when a reboot might occur in a situation of a pandemic induced trade and exchange shut down that could occur. It is a slippery slope to a point where grocery stores are not getting their restock. Our complex global system cannot have a widespread distribution disruption. A pandemic will disrupt distribution in a widespread manner.

Mike in Calif. on Sun, 10th Aug 2014 2:08 am 



I agree, Davy. The Sunnis will return to asymmetric attrition.

Looks like the Kurds are already calling for a counter-offensive. My guess is they went along with US plans in return for some concessions but didn’t like losing reputation in a luring withdrawal. So now they’re ready to flex their muscles. Ironically, in the long run, this will add to their reputation. They’ll be seen not only as battlefield potent, but cunning as well. They will happily take credit for the strategy because the Americans can’t.

Arthur on Sun, 10th Aug 2014 2:38 am 



Mike, in your analysis about ISIS-Kurds, the latter supported by US air power, you leave the most important factor out: Turkey. Turkey does not want a strong Kurdistan and they are secretly supporting ISIS. The Kurds will certainly defend their capital Erbil, and probably be succesful, but I can’t see the Kurds becoming an anti-ISIS force acting outside the boundaries of Kurdistan. Nobody has a real interest in reviving Iraq, not even Maliki. Iraq is dead. And so is Syria. And you are underestimating the power of the Caliphate idea that is cornerstone of Islamic thinking. Even the Kurds would not mind being a member of a Caliphate, as long as they have a certain level of autonomy within it.

Mike in Calif. on Sun, 10th Aug 2014 4:04 am 



I left a lot out for brevity. I have to admit, after 5.5 years in office the Obama administration is finally learning. But they’re still a bit naive.

The only reason northern Iraq is not the nation of Kurdistan is that the US, their benefactor, doesn’t want it. So far, the Kurds have wisely refrained from overstepping. The are two reasons for US denial of Kurdistan. One, some US brains think Iraq can be a multicultural democracy if only …. if only. Two, Turkey – an increasingly minor US ally – opposes it.

Turkey’s Erdogan is an Islam-motivated, geo-political moron who has managed alienate his friendly neighbors while he already has potent traditional enemies in Greece, Armenia and Kurdistan. If you think the US won’t strengthen Iraqi Kurdistan as a message to Ankara, as a counter-balance to Erdogan, you are sorely mistaken.

On the other hand, Obama has been so incompetent up to this point I expect some major miscalculation is on the horizon.

Arthur on Sun, 10th Aug 2014 4:42 am 



I think calling Erdogan a ‘geopolitical moron’ is more an expression of your personal dislike of the man and his potential of replacing the US as the dominant power in the ME, than serious flaws in the man himself. He has systematically sidelined the military, the guardians of Ataturk’s secular state and staunch ally of the West and Israel, and is successfully following a policy of gradual Islamization of Turkey. Turkey is the natural leader of Islam. It has by far the strongest military of the world of Islam and it will be Turkey that will finally crush ISIS, not the Kurds, not Israel, not US bombs. But first Turkey and many other parties in the ME, let ISIS pave the way for the coming Islamic revolution and Caliphate, with seat, once again, in Istanbul.

Davy on Sun, 10th Aug 2014 8:04 am 



Art, listen to Mike he is making very good points. I find them more practical and representative of the situation on the ground. Your thoughts are more conspiracy and “under the radar” postulations.

Mike in Calif. on Mon, 11th Aug 2014 12:14 am 



Arthur,

So far my assessment is panning out. Maliki is MORE scared now than he was of ISIS. Obama’s statement that it could take months makes sense when we know it could be over in three weeks. The aerial bombing has been very light and restrained. The US doesn’t want to destroy ISIS (not yet). They’ll be driven back even more slowly than I was thinking. But the idea is the same. Use ISIS as a hammer.

The problem for Turkey is that there is no upside to this “Islamization” or to Erdogan. He’s a train wreck for Turkey. He’s making new enemies, alienating friends and pissing off old enemies. There will be no return of the Ottomans for one very simple, very big reason: Russia. If the US wasn’t in Kurdistan, the Russians would love to be. It’d be the perfect retort to Turkish meddling in Chechnya.

A rising Turkey would face enemies on all sides with the Russians leading the way. You’ve heard of the strategy called “defense in depth?” Well, Turkey has enemies in depth. It’s not just the adjacent country, but the one behind it and the one behind that. As the Daily Beast reports, a joke making the election rounds is that Erdogan promised “zero problems” but what they got is “zero friends.” Relations with her NATO allies, particularly the US, are worsening. And if there’s one country that still needs NATO, it’s Turkey.

So, yeah, he’s not too bright.

Arthur on Mon, 11th Aug 2014 1:49 am 



Yesterday the “geopolitical moron” won the presidential election with a landslide. Erdogan will change the formerly merely ceremonial function of president into one with executive powers. Erdogan has morphed into Turkey’s strongman. He will continue the proces of Islamization, with full backing of his population, culminating in a Turkish run Caliphate, with Erdogan becoming the furst Caliph, if we ignore for a moment the clown Bagdaddy.

As we speak, since a few hours or so, there is a coup going on against Maliki by another Shi’ite in Bagdad. That is not very good news for the central authority in Iraq, if any, creating more degrees of freedom for ISIS, while ‘Iraqi Capital’ is divided against itself.

How on earth do you imagine that the US can ‘bomb away ISIS’? Whenever did that work? Do you think they are going to carry special hats with text “hit here”? How are you going to discern Jihadis from ordinary citizens? Are you sure that secretly the Turks won’t warn ISIS using their radar that slow A10’s are approaching from the Gulf?

Russia is under fire from the US/NATO in Ukraine. You really think they are foncerned with ISIS? I think that aputin secretly loves that the US has to divide it’s attention. Russia will do nothing to prevent the rise of Turkey.

William Pfaff just released an interesting piece about Russia and Putin’s motivations:

http://www.williampfaff.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=690

NATO excluded from Ukraine.

No U.S. troops on Russia’s borders.

Protection and preservation of the Russian cultural identity of the south and east of Ukraine.

Keeping Crimea Russian.

Putin won’t yield. Any serious concession to the U.S. would cause him to fall from power, and produce disorder in Russia.

For the future, he considers the U.S. in decline. He does not look to alliance with a rising China but to Germany, which he sees as the coming leader of a powerful Europe.

Putin would love to see the US replaced by Turkey in the ME and that is exactly what is going to happen. The Sunni Jihadist revolution is unstoppable.

Davy on Mon, 11th Aug 2014 6:25 am 



Art, effective boots on the ground (Kurds) and US airpower will drive ISIL to underground to asymmetric warfare. They will now have to settle for consolidation of territory roughly where the borders are now. You can’t conduct territorial adventures into ethnically different territory without freedom of movement and convention attacks with heavy weapons and massed troops. Art, ISIL is a spent conventional force. TPTB will be an unable to crush the ISIl from Sunni areas of Syria and Iraq. You are deceiving yourself with ISIL abilities any further than that.

Sorry Art, Europe is the sickest man of the bunch of sick developed blocks and Bric nations. All these nations are in decline. The US has the farthest to fall but is the best positioned with much low hanging fruit to fall back on. The US is also best able to fall back into isolationism without other power a threat with the Atlantic an Pacific as borders. China is in the most precarious position with huge predicaments on all fronts. Russia is a basket case economy in social decline yet, it has a long history of living in a less complex economic situations. It is a vast country with many resources. The third world is already failed because of population overshoot.

Arthur on Mon, 11th Aug 2014 7:07 am 



“You are deceiving yourself with ISIL abilities any further than that.”

Never said anything like that. It is not ISIS that is going to restore the Ottoman empire. It is *TURKEY* that will do the work. These ISIS clowns only pave the way and initiate the destruction of the old order in the ME, a left over of the European colonial and American era. That order as well as European/American presence in the ME will soon be history.

“Sorry Art, Europe is the sickest man of the bunch of sick developed blocks and Bric nations”

The EU meanwhile is the largest integrated economy on earth with the most technological potential. Our finances and foreign trade are much more in equilibrium than the US; we don’t have a 40% third world population, with 50 million on food stamps, who are a time bomb under US social order. And our currency is not about to loose reserve currency status. Europeans do not need to be convinced that fossil fuel is running out and are massively acting upon it.

Don’t know if Europe is a sick man, but in real life sickness can go away in a few days.

And I do not see why Fortress Europe is so difficult to implement. The Mediterrainian is after all a little wider than the Rio Grande. But the biggest advantage is that we do not need to address the power position of 7 million, ummm, Straussians, who can turn your country into the next USSR in a heartbeat. Yes it is true, the US could be a land of plenty, relatively speaking, but it is a long way. First you need to go through a lot of social upheavel before you get there.

http://www.infowars.com/the-coming-ebt-riots-what-will-happen-when-government-entitlements-stop/

And this is precisely what is going to happen once the BRICS dump the dollar.

Davy on Mon, 11th Aug 2014 7:44 am 



Art, Turkey is a basket case Bric wanna-be with little future other than a regional player/spoiler. Their economy is a developing country with brittle and delicate economic position because of its FX issues and deficit spending. It has a growing population in overshoot to normal carrying capacity (minus BAU) being situated in a dry region. I see no empire developing from Turkey.

I guess you do not follow Europe’s issues of social decline (aging), sovereign de facto default of southern Europe, and welfare socialism in stagnation/deflation, immigration pressures, energy depletion, and a looming trade/energy war. Art I love Europe and feel it is one of the last great places to live before collapse turns everywhere into a difficult places to live. A collapsed Europe will still manageable if the degree and duration of collapse is not too great. You are deceiving yourself with hope, optimism and cornucopian belief in technology, knowledge, and substitution. Europe has the most fragile position in a collapsing BAU sandwiched between Africa and the Russian Bear. Europe has an unsustainable good life supported by deficit spending and exports. Climate change is going to play havoc on southern Europe and UK. Exporting nations of Europe should expect declining not growing markets further stressing their already difficult government overspending with declining growth. My daughter lives in Madrid. She is Spanish by mother and a life lived in Madrid. My girlfriend is an Italian with a green card not Italian American. I lived in Germany and Spain. I have traveled there numerous times throughout Europe. I am not prejudiced against Europe, quite the contrary. Nor am I talking the US up at the expense of Europe. I reserve bashing for Asia/Africa/ME because of the ideologue propagandist here who talk them up. I just want you to be realistic Art. Europe has potential if this collapse is gentle and the bottom is not too far down. If that is not the case Europe will be a difficult place to live by most standards of collapse and bifurcation.

Arthur on Mon, 11th Aug 2014 10:58 am 



Davy, have you seen the videos from the noble savages from St. Louis? That is how urban America is going to look in it’s entirety like if the financial shtf.

I do follow the issues you mention… Yes, Europe, Russia, China and Euro-America are all aging, which is good in view of PO, provided you halt immigration.

No southern European country has defaulted, nor will. Greece would, but got the haircut they so richly deserved.

Europe is sandwiched between the Mediterranian and Russia, which is fine, since Russia is no threat, has raw materials and hungry markets for our products.

Yes, I have unlimited faith that our kind of people, which includes you, somehow will innovate our way out of the problems, not to enforce BAU, but to transit into a new worth-while mode of living.

Mike in Calif. on Tue, 12th Aug 2014 3:29 am 



Yep. Definitely in the arm-twisting, regime change, nation-building mode. Obama says an inclusive government in Baghdad is a precondition for stronger US “help.” Also, the Kurds are “pushed” or in one report “routed” out of Jalawla. US says its efforts are “limited” to protecting the Kurds. This conveniently delivers ISIS to the Iranian border, closes the northern arm of a potential encirclement of Baghdad and cuts off the capital from direct Kurdish support. Further pressure, both verbal and real, on Baghdad. Clockwork so far. The Obama admin is finally learning – though I still think the ultimate objective (a happy multicultural Iraq) in impractical.

If any one doubts the fake Kurdish withdrawal towards Erbil, today’s reports can put it to rest. Middle and junior officers were perplexed by the embarrassing pullback and said it came from higher-ups. I don’t have to be there to know that senior staff has already ordered its officers to be more judicious, local and tactical in press interviews. The Kurds are doing their part. The so called “rout” from Jalawla is a reinforcing message to Baghdad.

The message sent to Baghdad is stupidity neutral. If whatever-official understands what I’ve outlined, then message received. If he doesn’t, then he sees ISIS positioning on Baghdad and sees that the only threat to the vast northern flank of ISIS is the US/Kurdish alliance. Again, message received.

Checkmate.

Obama is even dumber than Erdogan, but his administration has pulled off a coup (perhaps literally) here. With a few air strikes and a lot of words, the Americans assume the dominant role in this game. Even ISIS is now in US employ whether they know it or not, whether they like it or not.

ISIS in Iraq is doomed. ISIS in Syria is another story.

Davy on Tue, 12th Aug 2014 5:36 am 



Great insight Mike. I can tell you been at this game awhile. I disagree ISIL is doomed though. They are doomed as a conventional force. They are doomed as conquerors of the ME as some here fantasize. They are not doomed as a Taliban style force that is highly effective at asymmetric guerrilla warfare in both Sunni Iraq and Syria. I see them owning the towns. There is no one with the stomach to root them out of the urban areas. I believe they are here to stay. The big question is Mosul. Will they remain there? A Mosul campaign with ISIL would make Fallujah look like a child’s play. IMA I do not see ISIL destroying the dam and flooding IRAQ Tigris valley while they have Mosul because Mosul and many vital Sunni areas would be flooded. I have also seen reports they have told the operators of the dam to keep it working. I am sure these ISIL folks are at work in the art of business. I have also seen reports of oil being sold to the Kurds by ISIL. I hope the Americans have learned and avoid deep entanglement. I feel the Americans can shape Iraq by allowing the Kurds, Sunni, and Shia to carve out their homelands roughly as we see now with American Airpower as the spoiler of any territorial conquest of ISIL. The three sides need each other due to infrastructure. I am curious what is in store for Kurdistan. Will they realize a de facto independence or just a quasi-independence as a continued rump of a dying Shia Iraq buffering the barbarian Sunni’s and under the thumb of Turkey and the US? One question for the board here what has become of the Baiji oil refinery? I see no up to date reports on its status.

Arthur on Tue, 12th Aug 2014 5:42 am 



“ISIS in Iraq is doomed.”

Your entire post speaks against that conclusion.

US air strikes are ineffective. Don’t believe me, I might be one of those “anti-Americans” hiding behind every tree. It is the Pentagon who says so:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/11/us-air-strikes-iraq-isis-minimal-impact-pentagon

Why no simply lean back and see who wins in Iraq and use your airforce for airstrikes against St. Louis-East to combat insurgents at home? Regardless of who wins in Iraq, any warlord will sell oil.

Arthur on Tue, 12th Aug 2014 6:11 am 



The only reason why the Caliphate will win is because there is no alternative. The West is declining and on the way out. So, who is going to fill the void? The guys with guns, the beards and the Korans. The Caliphate is accepted in the mind of every muslim. And it does not matter who is giving the final push: ISIS, the Muslim Brotherhood or most likely Turkey.

In 1916 the British, French, Russian and Italian allies in WW1 conspired to carve up the Ottoman empire and divide the loot amongst themselves. Unfortunately for the Russians, they were beaten by the Germans in 1917 and it was Lenin who later revealed the existence of this imperial Sykes-Picot conspiracy:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sykes–Picot_Agreement

All the borders in the present day ME are strongly related to the European imperial takeover of the ancient Caliphate. And guess what, now the modern neo-marxist European cowards with a fake holo-guilt complex, imposed on them by Anglo and Soviet globalists in Nuremberg, need to take care that they are not going to be colonized in their turn by the muslims. So what is more logical for an average muslim to do then to take historic revenge against the whities, give them the finger and reinstall the Caliphate that was destroyed by the hated European infidel. That is what I would do if I were a muslim. How do you install a new world empire? Use terror. That is what Atilla the Hun did, that is what Muhamed did, that is what the Soviets did under Stalin, that is what the Americans did with their terrorbombing of every German city and nuking of two Japanese cities, that is what the Red Khmer did and that is what ISIS does now. And the more you bomb them, the stronger they get.

Davy on Tue, 12th Aug 2014 6:34 am 



You are right in the end Art, when BAU collapses and the great oil driven armies evaporate. The primitives will come out of the rotting corpse like maggots. But don’t expect big armies of Islamic radicals because there is no food and water to support them in their march across the ME. The ME without oil and in a warming world is a moonscape.

I disagree with you Art on airpower. The clarification is airpower is not going to destroy ISIL but it will change the rules of the game and force ISIL underground and asymmetric. Art, the days of these cocky cats running around in the desert in small pickups with heavy machine guns looking like well-armed Mexican migrant workers is over. Hyper effective American air power in the desert ends these movements. If you are going to take territory in hostile ethnic regions you must have conventional forces. This is over Art. You fail to see how effective air power is in this situation. Throw in disciplined boots on the ground (Kurds) and you have an unbeatable force IMHO. Now, Art, you are correct air power is not going to root out the ISIL from Sunni regions. The Sunni tribes and locals will have to do that job if they chose.

Arthur on Tue, 12th Aug 2014 8:07 am 



Davy, you not only disagree with me on airpower, but also do with the Pentagon, which is more serious. It takes 90 minutes for these 42 years old A10’s to travel from Kuwait to Mosul. After one minute these planes are detected by Turkish radar, who will immediately send a message to their ISIS palls. Or otherwise a guy with a beard selling dates next to Kuwait airport will do it. These A10’s are perfect against tanks, but not against a fourth generation army like the Taliban or ISIS or Vietcong.

JuanP on Tue, 12th Aug 2014 9:10 am 



The USA government’s position regarding Baghdad is conflicted because they want a united Iraq, but they don’t want Maliki in charge and Maliki refuses to step aside. Yesterday Maliki gave a very charged speech and said some tough words on live TV. This guy adamantly refuses to move aside and let someone else become PM, he has no shame and no problem in destroying His country. The USA will not provide more support to Baghdad until Maliki leaves, IMO.
Iraq needs to be broken up in at least three pieces ASAP or things there will continue to deteriorate.

Arthur on Tue, 12th Aug 2014 9:23 am 



Iraq is already broken in three parts.
Sykes-Picot country #1 Iraq is history.
#2 will be Syria. Once Assad will be gone, the rest of the dominos will fall quickly.

#3 is still open. Candidates are: Lebanon, Jordan and SA. Place your bets please.

Then there is Egypt and the likely return of the Muslim Brotherhood. And of course, Libya is more or less history also.

If in a decade or so you want to buy oil from the ME, you have to approach a Turkish or Iranian administrator.

JuanP on Tue, 12th Aug 2014 9:45 am 



Art, I agree that Iraq, Syria, Lybia, and probably Ukraine, too, are history and should be broken up to stop the fighting and reduce the speed of collapse for these societies. The problem is the US government doesn’t pay much attention to me or my corn pone ‘pinions, Art. 😉 Egypt is a failing, collapsing state.

Davy on Tue, 12th Aug 2014 12:46 pm 



Art, the air power is coming from carriers F18’s. B1 bombers are being readied if multiple strikes are needed in close proximity. I doubt the ISIL is getting radar reports from Turkey besides the US would know about it by eavesdropping. The pentagon knows air power will only make a difference on defensive static positions and mobile troop concentrations and mobile heavy weapons. Art, it is not going to drive ISIL out of Iraq that is the Pentagons point. Listen to the news Art. How many cities is the ISIL taking over these days? It has gone quiet and the Kurds are now holding their own and preparing for counter attacks. My point Art is you are correct about the air power not being effective in driving the ISIL out of Iraq but I am correct about driving them into the cover of towns, into hiding, and unable to have freedom of movement. The ISIL miscalculated and now the Kurds will be supported with advanced equipment and air power. The Jihadist will have to go back to their cowardly suicide bombs and IED’s. I called them cowardly because there are some on this board that call US drone strikes cowardly. Folks, war is nasty, so you get the job done and get it over. There is no “nice” about war especially when fanatics are involved. So which is worse suicide bombers or drone strikes? Choose your poison.

Arthur on Tue, 12th Aug 2014 1:35 pm 



Davy, here is an interesting link (if you ignore the ‘antichrist’ BS for a moment) making plausible that Turkey is secretly cooperating with both ISIS and Iran about carving up the entire ME between Sunny and Shi’ite Islam, comparable to how the US and USSR cooperated in dividing Europe between them in 1945:

http://tinyurl.com/mr4b82w

Davy on Tue, 12th Aug 2014 2:09 pm 



Art, I will check it out. I never say never to your ideas.

Mike in Calif. on Wed, 13th Aug 2014 3:14 am 



Arthur,

You’re severely out of touch with things in the region and with what I said. I clearly stated that ISIS survives in Iraq for now – as a tool of the US. When the dust clears ISIS will be a few terrorist cells blowing up women and children in Baghdad markets. The “Caliphate” has no friends and no future.

Airstrikes ineffective: Please. The strikes are doing exactly what they’re meant to do. Take out some point targets and kick up dust in Kurdish territory. I can assure you that a 500 or 2000 lb bomb is tactically and supremely effective. But just a few sorties per day is not exactly what you’d call a campaign.

Like I said, the US does not want to go on the offensive yet. This is happy coincidence because I doubt they’re ready. Air assets need to be brought in and the Kurds will be positioned and, apparently, up-armed. The US/Kurdish alliance will push back here and there and single out some high-value targets. But the real fireworks won’t start until things sort out in Baghdad or if Baghdad is seriously threatened. In the meantime, the US is fine with letting Baghdad ~feel~ threatened.

Turkish Radar Operator: For lack of better word, ridiculous. First of all, an A-10 at cruise and near the Turkish border may appear above the horizon. If it does it will be flagged friendly, its flight ID will be known and probably its callsign (I don’t know the exact level of integration). Its flight plan inbound/outbound may also be known. Why all this? Because we’re allies. What will not be known by the radar operator, his commander or their mistresses is the target. There may not even be a specific target when the flight takes off. Or it may be assigned to loiter or to provide close support dynamically. Now imagine that it drops below the horizon and proceeds to operate in an area the size of West Virginia. Who are you going to call? Do you have a phone book of ISIS units, sub-units AND their current position?!? BTW, the operator who makes that impossible call can look forward to court-martial.

Contrary to what you seem to believe, Turkey and ISIS are not on good terms. The friendly days of funneling foreign fighters through Turkish border towns is over. ISIS is holding Turkish hostages and Turkey is arresting ISIS members in Turkey. Turkey is also shutting down border traffic. Erdogan has taken the rather unprecedented step of approaching the Syrian Kurds for cooperation ~against~ ISIS. He has also offered greater support to more moderate anti-Assad forces.

There are about a thousand variables that are obscure. Do the Kurds and/or Americans have a south stop-line in mind? Will aircraft operating out of Incirlik clandestinely target ISIS in Syria – on their way to Iraq, of course? The general picture is clear, the details unsure.

—

Now, if Erdogan was half the Ottoman you think he is, this should be a great opportunity. When the hammer comes down on ISIS (and it will), the Turkish Army could sweep into northern Syria on the pretext of crushing the rest of ISIS and pushing back Assad. The Turks would not advance on Damascus but instead peel east to finish ISIS and west to destroy the northwestern elements of Assad’s army. Then he would sit tight with Assad bottled and impose a partition of Syria. He would help the rebels continue south (now Turkish proxies) but otherwise not try to actually destroy Assad (leave him as a ‘bad guy’). At that point, it’s time to gauge reaction. If NATO goes berserk and threatens ejection, then he can always pullback. Oh well, nice try, maybe later. But if NATO sees it as a “temporary” and “necessary” occupation, then the first neo-Ottoman victory is sealed.

Arthur on Wed, 13th Aug 2014 4:18 am 



“I clearly stated that ISIS survives in Iraq for now – as a tool of the US.”

Are you seriously suggesting the US is bombing it’s own ‘tools’?

ISIS was indeed a US tool, as long as they confined themselves to fighting Russian ally Assad. But now they are engaging in mission creep and are busy founding a Caliphate, threatening to kick whitie out of Arabia alltogether. Now all the alarmbells are ringing in Washington, Paris and London.

“The “Caliphate” has no friends and no future.”

Wishfull and ahistoric thinking. The Caliphate is an essential ingredient of aislamic thought.

But OK, what are your predictions? Iraq and Syria will be restored and emerge as fine democracies and staunch western allies?lol

“I can assure you that a 500 or 2000 lb bomb is tactically and supremely effective”

I’m not buying your assurances. For starters you have no targets. This is a swift fourth generation army, with no discernable targets or do you seriously want to bomb all pickup trucks, which perhaps for 5% are owned by ISIS insurgents?

“The US/Kurdish alliance will push back here and there and single out some high-value targets. ”

US/Kurdish alliance? Sure, the Kurds are more than happy to receive US weapons to defend Kurdish territory, but that’s it. The Kurds will not let themselves being used by the US to restore Iraq. The Kurds are muslim and hence support the Caliphate. In fact the Caliphate is the supreme chance to finally acquire Kurdish autonomy within a framework of the Caliphate. The Turks are about to abandon nationalism and become the new imperial leader of Islam. Here is a historic deal possible between Turks and Kurds.

“Why all this? Because we’re allies. ”

Alliances come and go. The NATO alliance had it’s roots in the east-west stand-off. Turkey sees itself no longer as a junior partner of an obsolete alliance, it has much bigger fish to fry: present itself as the natural leader of Islam. It’s constant needling against Israel is a clear inducation of what Turkey thinks of the West.

Erdogan will let ISIS act and patiently wait from the sideline. In the end Turkey will crush ISIS and takeover the acquired Sunni territories in Iraq and Syria… and stay there.

Davy on Wed, 13th Aug 2014 6:44 am 



Mike, you are dead on and I am impressed with you grasp of these geopolitics of the area, knowledge of military hardware/tactical use, and regional power’s strategy.

Art, I never say never with your thinking but it is reaching and borders on theory. I don’t see the reality at least now. I am not sure you have a grasp of the military hardware and tactical applications.

Arthur on Wed, 13th Aug 2014 10:30 am 



Perhaps try “google turkey isis support”.

The general accusation is that Turkey is turning a blind eye towards ISIS, notably by the Kurds.

Here is the Jerusalem Post accusing Turkey of funding ISIS:

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/07/30/ISIS-Fighter-Claims-Turkey-Funds-the-Jihadist-Group

Here is CNBC with suspiscions that Turkey funds ISIS:

cnbc. com/id/101916826

And here an article that Turkey refuses yo cooperate with airstrikes against ISIS on a lame pretext:

jihadwatch. org/2014/08/turkey-refuses-support-for-u-s-airstrike-on-islamic-state

And let’s get real: why would the US be the only one interested in adding ME countries to it’s empire and not Turkey?

No, it is clear that Turkey is secretly backing ISIS, because they do the dirty work for Turkey. Turkey has always been a very keen supporter of overthrowing Assad, because Turkey knows very well what comes next in Syria: fundamentalism. And fundamentalism and Caliphate are two sides of the same coin.

Mike in Calif. on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 6:45 pm 



Maliki down, airstrikes escalate. Value of ISIS as pressuring tool diminished, but Baghdad still needs to get its house in order. No large counter-offensive just yet.

For ISIS, time to do anything effective is rapidly running out. They will quickly lose mobility and strength. Turkey cut gasoline supplies quite some time ago and once serious US interdiction is in place just moving from point A to B will be costly. If they were smart they would fallback now while they can and shorten their lines, concentrate their defenses. But I suspect their operating under the same delusions as Arthur.

Whether the US/Iraq wait and build up for a big offensive or engage in a slow dissection of ISIS isn’t clear. What is certain is that at some point ISIS will face a wave of defections and desertions. When this happens they’ll try to beat feet back to Syria. They will face not only US air power on the march back, but the retaliation of locals.

If the US plays it right, less than a thousand core ISIS fighters will make it back to Syria. But we’re talking about Obama and company. I’m still expecting something really stupid on the American side.