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Page added on May 1, 2015
Kjell Aleklett Update: Peak Oil 2015-2016
What happened to peak oil?
Here an older 2012 video from Swedish peak oil luminary and ASPO chairman Kjell Aleklett.
At the time, when we started this blog, we were entirely in the Richard Heinberg mode of thinking, summarized as: ‘industrial society is going to be hit very soon by a truck, that few see coming and industrial society is doomed, because the world is running out of oil quickly.‘
We no longer think that is the case. That doesn’t mean that peak oil is not going to happen, but it is at least a little postponed and there is fossil fuel life after peak oil. On the fossil fuel supply front, we are much more optimistic than we were three years ago. Meanwhile we think that it is very well possible to have a sustainable light-weight industrial society for 100% based on renewable energy, to be largely realized by 2050, at least in Europe, North-America and China.
There is no video made by Aleklett since, so this could suggest that he quietly dropped the peak oil subject? Not really. Here a recent article from his blog, let’s see what he has to say on peak oil in 2015:
[aleklett.wordpress.com] – The crash in the price of oil may change the oil market – a look at the IEA’s “Oil Medium-Term Market Report 2015”
The article discusses this report:
[iea.org] – Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2015 (80 euro)
Aleklett argues that he and the other ASPO members were basically completely correct with their predictions concerning conventional oil and that production indeed peaked in 2005. The increase in oil production of 4.2 Mb/d we saw from 2008 to 2013 was not cheap (conventional) oil; It came from deepwater, from Canada’s oil-sands and as NGL and shale oil from fracking in the USA.
The world acording to the IEA
Aleklett explains that a reduced need for oil imports (US cars becoming 25% more efficient over the past decade) has led to the current oversupply of oil on the world market and corresponding price implosion. In other words: demand destruction was an important factor causing the drop in the oil prices.
According to Aleklett, OPEC has lost its significance, because it no longer has the will to set the price by varying production, like it did in the past. Everybody is now producing the maximum amount it can, which lead to price erosion.
Aleklett is skeptical of the IEA’s future prognoses. According to him neither shale oil nor the price crash of the past six months negate the fact that the world finds itself near Peak Oil and he concludes concerning conventional plus unconventional oil:
There are strong indications that 2015/2016 may see this global peak.
Editor: in our view, Aleklett might well be right about “peak oil=2016″, but he is focusing too much on oil, where he should concentrate on fossil fuel in general. With the current level of technology, oil, gas and coal are highly interchangeable, although they are not equally clean (read: dirty). When you add up all potentially combustible hydrocarbon material, still stored in the earth’s crust or laying around on the bottom of the ocean (methane-hydrates), we tentatively come to the conclusion that fossil fuel is indeed an infinite resource. Not in a literally sense, after all the earth is a sphere with 12,000 km diameter, but in a practical sense, namely that there is probably more fossil fuel around than the tiny earth’s atmosphere ever can handle. This is easy to exemplify: the atmosphere measures about 30 km. If in a thought experiment the atmosphere would be cooled to near zero degrees Kelvin, that atmosphere would shrink to a pool of ca. 10 meter liquid oxygen and nitrogen. The atmosphere is that thin. And it is in that tiny pool that cars, airplanes, home heating equipment, etc., etc. discharge their combustion waste into.
To illustrate the huge fossil fuel reserves, take for example the recent report about the discoveries of huge coal reserves under the North Sea, 20-150 times the total amount of oil burned so far in the entire history.
Another question is if that fossil fuel is accessible. Key parameter is EROEI (energy return on energy investment), that is: do you get more energy in return compared to the amount of energy you need to invest to harvest the fuel? That’s a matter of technology and that is a very dynamic factor.
The fact that the atmosphere could be the final limiting factor in global fossil fuel consumption is acknowledged in the IEA report:
“There is a rapidly growing discussion within the oil industry regarding what are called ‘stranded assets’ – the fact that the larger part of the world’s fossil fuel reserves cannot be produced if the world is to avoid serious climate change. New calculations presented in the journal Nature in January show that 80% of the world’s coal reserves and one third of the world’s oil reserves cannot be used, at least not before 2050.
Conclusion: for better of for worse, there is a near endless amount of fossil fuel waiting in the earth’s crust, but it will be technology that will determine if these reserves can be exploited economically. The end of the fossil fuel age will probably come in leaps and bounds. Perhaps that in a year time oil prices will sky-rocket again, if the world does indeed pass peak oil (conventional + unconventional). This will cause a shift to other fossil fuels. The best energy strategy is to be not distracted by fossil fuel price and continue on the path of installation of renewable energy and demand destruction.
24 Comments on "Kjell Aleklett Update: Peak Oil 2015-2016"
Davy on Fri, 1st May 2015 7:36 am
Yee Haa, how about that green BAUtopian hopium “Meanwhile we think that it is very well possible to have a sustainable light-weight industrial society for 100% based on renewable energy, to be largely realized by 2050, at least in Europe, North-America and China.” What a bag of poop that is.
There is no basis of our current reality to support that assertion. Of course they excel goal seeked out to 2050 to accommodate their version of their likely continued growth of the AltE sector. AltE will die on the vine with the economy and the decline of oil. These greenies are as bad as the fascists browns with lies. Folks let’s face reality and begin a rebalance effort instead of blindly riding a train of doom. It is doom for BAU either way but we can lessen the pain, suffering, and death.
We can end bad attitudes and lifestyles by force of necessity of scarcity. We can change attitudes of a BAUtopian future to one of a future of mutual survival in a generation of decent. The only sensible path forward is a system wide system shaking crisis. If society got honest and accepted reality this crisis would occur naturally. The governments of the global world would not need to do any implementations. The global markets would shrink from loss of confidence and a rebalance of consumption and population would start. That is the only sensible way forward. The alternative is a train wreck of mass death and destruction.
mbnewtrain on Fri, 1st May 2015 7:56 am
The argument that fossil fuels are easily interchangeable is mistaken. To convert the transportation sector, which runs 95% on oil, to natural gas would cost hundreds of billion of $$ for the US and take a decade or more. Plus the added demand for natural gas would cause large increase in price, thus curtailing demand.
Peak oil will happen more for economic reasons than a lack of hydrocarbons to be extracted. As the oil becomes harder to extract and requiring more expensive technology, the cost will have to rise or that oil will not be produced. Look at shale oil in US, where this year production will fall 10% or more, IMO. As oil becomes more expensive, we either find a way to become more efficient or learn to do without, that being either production of energy from renewables or a cessation of that energy consuming activity.
paulo1 on Fri, 1st May 2015 8:25 am
Wow, there is BAU lite. For a minute I thought we would have to park our cars.
shortonoil on Fri, 1st May 2015 9:02 am
If fossil fuels are to be used to power the world’s economy they must be capable of contributing more energy than what is required to produce them. That is the key to the world’s fossil fuel reserves. Resources, technology, and finance are irrelevant unless that requirement can first be fulfilled. Other aspects are auxiliary, and dependent upon that first requirement.
When the energy required to produce a fossil fuel becomes equal to the energy it contributes that point is known as the “dead state”. It is the balance point. Beyond the “dead state” energy must be input to produce fossil fuels, and the general economy suffers when that happens. It is the point where there is no surplus energy remaining from the fuel to power the economy.
We are now reaching the point where much of the world’s fossil fuel reserves are approaching the “dead state”. The average Bakken well reaches it after producing about 77,000 barrels; the average shale gas well after producing about 300 million cu-ft of gas. As our hydrocarbon resources are depleted the world is using supplies that are ever declining in quality. The world is moving closer, and closer toward the point where the average hydrocarbon source has reached the “dead state”.
As long as fossil fuels remain the primary source of the world’s energy supply, they will ever be getting closer to that zero energy point. To construct an “industrial light” economy would require an economy that would be getting ever “lighter”. All fossil fuels transition, at some point, from an economic asset, to an economic liability. Understanding that fundamental aspect about them will be required for the development of a transitional society.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org
gdubya on Fri, 1st May 2015 9:22 am
“The average Bakken well reaches it after producing about 77,000 barrels; the average shale gas well after producing about 300 million cu-ft of gas. ”
I assume these numbers are reversed, if I drill a well and produce an infinite amount does that not improve the EROEI/ROI?
marmico on Fri, 1st May 2015 9:45 am
The buffoon is back. The quart shy of oil is a moron. The railroad sector consumes twice as much distillate fuel as does the domestic oil and gas sector. The only “dead state” is the buffoon’s cerebral cortex.
Adjusted Sales of Distillate Fuel Oil by End Use
shortonoil on Fri, 1st May 2015 11:54 am
“assume these numbers are reversed, if I drill a well and produce an infinite amount does that not improve the EROEI/ROI?”
ERoEI is a ratio. If a well produced an infinite amount the ERoEI would be infinite. But, I don’t
think things work that way?
he buffoon is back. The quart shy of oil is a moron.
Mar is back! The troll that thinks “physics” is something that you take when you have eaten too much cheese! It’s a good thing you don’t live in Venezuela!
JuanP on Fri, 1st May 2015 3:09 pm
“Aleklett is skeptical of the IEA’s future prognoses.” Kjell is a smart cookie. This article is a load of crap, you are better off skipping it and watching Aleklett’s videos.
Nony on Fri, 1st May 2015 4:17 pm
This conventional versus non is totally silly. The peakers had total C&C on their graphs. Besides they were laughing at the cornies when the cornies said “we will find something else, not sure where”. How can you peakers predict all sorts of calamity from peaking when you have a caveat that you don’t include unconventional.
Add onto that the aspect of dishonesty and cowardice. Weak, weak, weak. No wonder your movement died.
GregT on Fri, 1st May 2015 4:30 pm
Speaking of dishonesty and cowerdice. Why not admit that the reason for much of the unconventional oil production was due to a 400% increase in oil prices, and while you’re at it, why not admit to the economic contraction that has occurred around the globe due to high oil prices.
We passed the peak in conventional oil production ~2005. We are now going after the dregs, the stuff that will not allow the continuation of BAU.
apneaman on Fri, 1st May 2015 4:39 pm
dishonesty and cowardice? Is that like when you pretend to be two different people? And your still doing it, as if you were never outed. Maybe your not being cowardly and dishonest, maybe your a really sick person suffering from some serious delusional disorder. It happens.
Sybil-nony-marm-???????
apneaman on Fri, 1st May 2015 4:40 pm
Sybil-nony-marm
The three faces of corn
Northwest Resident on Fri, 1st May 2015 5:10 pm
Sybil-nony-marm-PapaSmurf
Nony is the smartass, sassy and sometimes clever and occasionally funny goofball side of whoever is doing the puppet show.
Marmico is the replacement for PapaSmurf — the mean, arrogant, pompous grouchy old man hurling insults of fire and spitting and cussing at everyone, just full of anger and brimming with disdain, packing a big dose of ignorance and downright stupidity to boot.
Together, they are all one big happy sock puppet family, the left and right and probably middle appendages of the same very confused individual all working together for fun and amusement.
The most dishonest and the most cowardly are almost always the first to accuse of others of those traits, of course.
Nony on Fri, 1st May 2015 5:10 pm
ape: that was freak stalker dude accusing me of that. The mod here even called him out. Was trying to say he was going to mess with Plant IRL.
Greg: much of the unconventional oil production was due to a 400% increase in oil prices, and the economy contracted because of high prices.
apneaman on Fri, 1st May 2015 5:39 pm
Oh sorry, Nony. I stand corrected. Your a gentleman and a scholar……. 😉
Nony on Fri, 1st May 2015 6:16 pm
hug your hugly huggle
GregT on Fri, 1st May 2015 6:25 pm
Good for you Nony.
Baby steps first. Denial is very difficult to overcome. Stick around, and you’ll eventually come to your senses.
steve on Sat, 2nd May 2015 9:09 am
You can’t really blame the noonies,marms etc…how many here have talked to everyday people about the peak oil crisis? What you get is a blank stare a moment of panic that he might be right and then a oh this guy is just crazy! I have talked to people in all types of fields about P.o and none will even give it much thought and these people have PHD’S and many are in the physics field!! Climate change global warming is an easy sell…P.O financial collapse not so much! My town of about 40,000 is rapidly growing everybody is scrambling to buy bigger and bigger houses at a 300 percent increase! And what do you think are the major infrastructure problems here that they are working on—–Parking Garages!!! The university has planes for building a 10 million dollar garage next month….will these fools be held accountable some day.?
Dick Cheny saw peak oil in 2005 and while I don’t agree with what he did; I see his reasoning. We are at P.O, Saddam is growing ever more powerful and with his alliances with Russia and China it will be harder and harder to depose him we have to do it now! Deposing him will allow the U.S to put bases throughout the middle east and destabilize the region—done.
Now cue the liberal black President who will shift focus to social issues of gay marriage, health care, trangendger whatever…and the next chapter will be……yep nothing to see here folks!!
Crazy time! It is like watching cars drive over a faulty bridge…you know it is going to collapse you just don’t know when and how bad it will be…
Has anyone here ever convinced people in real life about Peak Oil?! I don’t think you will until it hits them in the face and then it will be too late!
Nony on Sat, 2nd May 2015 9:12 am
Peak oil is a dying movement. Sites closed up. Searches down. People not revisiting their bad predictions from mid 2000s. There was always a nutter edge to the whole lot of you. Now it’s evident that even the more sober amateur quants were wrong. Face it. Fracking kicked your asses. Hard.
The general public has no interest in you. You’re freaks. Any politician would be wise to stay far away from you.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 2nd May 2015 11:05 am
Nony, the general public is clueless. You know that, or should. Why does it matter what the general public thinks? Do they even think?
What peak oil sites have closed up? Searches for peak oil are down? So what? I am certain of peak oil, yet I never search on the internet for “peak oil”. Lack of searches for “peak oil” means NOTHING, yet you repetitively post that claim as if it has any relevance to anything.
Fracking didn’t kick peak oil “movement’s” ass. Fracking was, and is, a desperate attempt to forestall the inevitable. To fire up the fracking industry and plaster over the inevitable real time energy decline due to peak oil took hundreds of billions of unpayable debt, together with a propaganda campaign of lies and misinformation, and a wealth transfer that is still in full operation today.
Who is the freak, Nony? Most politicians are smart enough to stay away from any controversial subject. Truth and what’s right be damned. Sounds a lot like you.
GregT on Sat, 2nd May 2015 11:45 am
Human intelligence and situational awareness are dying ‘movements’ Nony. People are generally completely clueless.
Top 10 US google searches for 2014:
Robin Williams
World Cup
Ebola
Malaysia Airlines
Flappy Bird
ALS Ice Bucket Challenge
ISIS
Ferguson
Frozen
Ukraine
The fact that Flappy Bird even made the top 1 million searches, says heaps about the average person’s interests and intelligence.
What’s your excuse Nony?
Nony on Sat, 2nd May 2015 11:48 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3a16iTwYKoc
Davy on Sat, 2nd May 2015 1:33 pm
NOo, Peak Oil has gone mainstream not with the GP but investors, academics, and think tanks. There is no need to have PO be googled as in the past.
I ask you if PO is not relevant why are you here more than a nutter like me? Is it because you are a numb nut? I would much rather be a nutter than a numb nut chasing his tail and lost in denial.
NowWhat on Thu, 8th Sep 2016 3:23 pm
“Peak Oil” was an accurate description for the facts of oil production. There were reputable experts who put forward their data and analysis. They hoped that people might be able to use that information. It was and is still important to use data and analysis when making major and long-term infrastructure and economic investment decisions.
“Peak Oil” sounded really bad – and so it stimulated people who were delighted with the prospects for catastrophe. It seems that the catastrophe that did accompany the inflection from growth in production to flattening and decline in production of the oil that produced the economic growth of the last 100 years was not enough to satisfy doomers. But, if you really want to experience disaster in the first degree – go to Alberta, the Gulf of Mexico, Pennsylvania… where the oil industry is scraping the bottom of the barrel, the environmental disaster is epic.
“Peak Oil” never actually meant “running out of oil”. There has never been any question among experts that the year after the peak would be a year that the world produced and used near record amounts of oil, or two years after peak, or 4… The peak was a huge change in the economics and behaviour of the oil industry and the world economy.
“NOW WHAT”?
It is time for a whole new field of research, engineering, and economics understanding of re-development of the old economy and society and infrastructure for the TRANSITION to reducing and much lower oil demand.
WHY NOT?
Trolls – aim mud here X but realize that you are mostly irrelevant because you are not actually working on anything.