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Page added on September 28, 2017
It’s Been A Tough Week For Peak Oil Theorists
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In news that is certain to upset adherents to the never-dying cult of Peak Oil, IHS Markit released a study on Sept. 25 indicating that, per their analysis of data from more than 440,000 oil wells in the Permian Basin, the basin still has somewhere between 60 and 70 billion barrels of producible oil to give up in coming years. That’s not exactly the “near-infinite resource” view of the Permian held by Allen Gilmer and his staff at DrillingInfo, but it certainly supports the notion that the basin will remain a very active area for oil and gas development for decades to come.
“The Permian Basin is America’s super basin in terms of its oil and gas production history, and for operators, it presents a significant variety of stacked targets that are profitable at today’s oil prices,” Prithiraj Chungkham, director of unconventional resources for IHS, said in the statement.
The IHS Markit study is the latest in a string of resource estimates in the past year that have produced a growing understanding of the true magnitude of the resource in place in the Permian. Last November, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) issued its own resource estimate that a single formation in the Permian, the Wolfcamp Shale, contains 20 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil, by far the largest such estimate ever issued for any single formation by the USGS. Most in the industry understand that this is actually a conservative resource estimate because USGS limits its resource assessments to reserves that are producible using current technology. Given that technology advances in the oil and gas industry every day, such estimates, while useful markers, are out of date before they are even released.
The IHS Markit study advances the knowledge base for the Permian resource by using a completely different method, one that does not limit its resource estimation by tying it to current technology. “Using a new technology we developed, we’ve leveraged our proprietary IHS Markit interpreted formation-tops data to identify accurate formations for completion intervals on hundreds of thousands of wells, and the results change the game for this basin and for geologists’ interpretations,” said John Roberts, executive director, global subsurface content operations at IHS Markit. “It has significantly changed our understanding of the extent of many formations in the Permian Basin and the potential of those formations to yield additional hydrocarbons.”
To put all these huge numbers in context, the largest-producing oilfield ever discovered in the United States of America, Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay field, has produced roughly 12 billion barrels of oil since its first production in 1977. Thus, the conservative USGS estimate of a single formation within the Permian Basin pegs its potential at more than one and a half Prudhoe Bays, and the IHS Markit study finds that the Permian will ultimately yield five Prudhoe Bays. It’s not “infinite,” but that is a lot of Prudhoe Bays yet to be produced.
To be fair to the Peak Oil die-hards ― something I always hate to do ― their theory du jour focuses not on their previous claim that the world was about to run out of oil supply, since no one can make such a silly claim without being laughed out of the room anymore, but on “peak demand”: the claim that the world is always right at the precipice of a dramatic drop in demand for petroleum.
This week brought them bad news on that front as well as the International Energy Agency (IEA) was forced to revise its estimated increase in global demand upward, from 1.4 million bopd to 1.6 million bopd. This marks the third consecutive year in which the IEA has had to make such an upward revision in this annual estimate as the OECD and developing nations around the globe continue to find the need for plentiful, inexpensive energy sources, a demand that petroleum products are best able to fill.
Janet Kong, BP’s regional CEO for supply and trading for the eastern hemisphere, told the S&P Global Platts APPEC conference in Singapore on Tuesday that her company, which has a strong history of accuracy on such matters, now thinks the increase in global demand for 2017 could even reach 1.7 million bopd.
Peak Oil theory, in all of its various contortions, has been consistently wrong for more than a century now. But it will always have its adherents, just based on the belief that, given that oil is a finite resource and the globe is moving to renewable fuels and electric cars, sooner or later the theory will have to be right. At which point, the surviving prophets of Peak Oil will all be able to raise their finger in the air and shout: “Ah-hah! Told you so!”
The news this week indicates that they’ll all have to live significantly longer in order to enjoy that moment.
70 Comments on "It’s Been A Tough Week For Peak Oil Theorists"
Mick on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 3:15 pm
Wow this article was written by Forbes we all know how honest they are so it must be true. Who would of though that there was 70billon barrels hiding under that rock in the permian .Oh well us theorist will have to find something else to do with our time now
dave thompson on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 3:26 pm
This article reeks of snark. Anyone who seriously understands “peak oil” and follows the current oil market production numbers overall knows conventional oil has peaked and the current total tabulations of total crude and condensate are made up to make the system look like it goes on forever.
Ghung on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 3:27 pm
“…the Permian Basin, the basin still has somewhere between 60 and 70 billion barrels of producible oil to give up in coming years.”
Gosh, that’s sounds like a lot. About 2 whole years (and change) of global consumption at current rates. Of course, they mention increasing consumption, globally….
Anyway, I’ve never been much of a ‘Peak Oil cultist’. More of a Peak Everything cultist who doesn’t focus on time-frames much when contemplating the inevitable.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 3:32 pm
Peak Oil Vindication Loading: 97% Complete
Conventional Oil Peaked in 2006 –IEA-EIA-NATURE-ENERGY
http://imgur.com/a/uCz7V
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v481/n7382/full/481433a.html
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544213009420
New Oil discoveries by scientists have been declining since 1965 and last year was the lowest in history –IEA
http://imgur.com/a/W60yn
We have been draining our oil reserves by consuming more oil than we discover since the 1980’s – ASPO
http://imgur.com/a/uJ0Rg
Aging giant oil fields produce more than half of global oil supply and are declining (Hook, 2009)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421509001281
Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% – Wikileaks
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-minister-sees-end-of-oil-price-slump-1476870790
UAE warns of world oil shortages ahead by 2020 due to industry spending cuts
http://www.arabianindustry.com/oil-gas/news/2016/nov/6/more-spending-cuts-as-uae-predicts-oil-shortages-5531344/
Saudi Aramco CEO believes oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/07/10/saudi-aramco-ceo-believes-oil-shortage-coming-despite-u-s-shale-boom.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aramco-oil/aramco-ceo-sees-oil-supply-shortage-as-investments-discoveries-drop-idUSKBN19V0KR
Halliburton CEO says oil will spike due to oil shortages by 2020 after Industry Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-12/halliburton-sees-2020-oil-spike-after-industry-cuts-2-trillion
Total CEO warns we are going to have oil shortages around 2020 due to lack of investment & new discoveries
http://www.boursorama.com/actualites/je-suis-convaincu-qu-on-va-manquer-de-petrole-selon-le-pdg-de-total-patrick-pouyanne 9b2d911a65572f5f989a74319b68d296
Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html
HSBC Global Bank warns 80% of the worlds conventional fields are declining and world oil shortages by 2020
https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/24/vzchQwb
UBS Global Bank warns of industry slowdown and world Oil Shortages by 2020
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/12136886/Oil-slowdown-to-trigger-supply-crisis-by-2020-warns-bank.html
Citi CEO warns of oil shortages coming as soon as 2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/citi-says-get-ready-for-an-oil-squeeze-than-an-opec-supply-surge
Wood Mackenzie warns of oil supply crunch and world oil shortages around 2020
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Next-Oil-Price-Spike-May-Cripple-The-Industry.html
Energy watchdog warns oil and electricity shortages could develop as investment falls
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/10/watchdog-warns-of-oil-and-electricity-shortages-as-investment-falls.html
Oil Discoveries at 70-Year Low Signal Supply Shortfall Ahead
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-29/oil-discoveries-at-a-70-year-low-signal-a-supply-shortfall-ahead
Why investors’ should brace for a devastating oil shortage ahead around 2020
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-investors-should-brace-for-a-devastating-oil-shock-ahead-2017-07-03
People are almost completely ignoring a looming crisis for oil
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-future-of-oil-supply-and-demand-2016-9
It Will Take 131 Years To Replace Oil, And We’ve Only Got 2 (Malyshkina 2010)
http://www.businessinsider.com/131-years-to-replace-oil-2010-11
IEA Price Spike Coming In 2020 due to oil shortage caused by oil depletion
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/IEA-Price-Spike-Coming-in-2020.html
Oil demand may exceed supply by up to 4 million bpd by 2019: Trafigura
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-oil-appec-trafigura/oil-demand-may-exceed-supply-by-up-to-4-million-bpd-by-2019-trafigura-idUSKCN1C10AM
German Government (leaked) Peak Oil study concludes: oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of 90% of all manufactured products, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments
https://www.permaculture.org.au/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf
The Oil Age may come to an end for a shortage of oil. ~ Saudi saying
MASTERMIND on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 3:35 pm
Fake News!
Citi CEO warns of oil shortages coming as soon as 2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/citi-says-get-ready-for-an-oil-squeeze-than-an-opec-supply-surge
coffeeguyzz on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 3:37 pm
… And, really, this is only a part of the hydrocarbon story.
Applying unconventional extraction techniques to the known, vast natgas formations in the US will provide copious amounts of fuel for generations to come.
Continuing advances in alternate power generation (thorium, fusion, etc) coupled with products such as graphene, techniques like 3D printing/manufacturing assure that humanity will always posses the potential to offer a better tomorrow for their progeny.
Anti capitalists, hydrocarbon-loathers, American haters, doomers and Malthusians of all stripes will never accept the hope for a better tomorrow as their venom-fueled psyches will not allow it.
Keep an eye out on South Australia in the coming weeks, doomers. No juice for them on hot summer days.
New England is in lock step right behind as the cold winds of autumn show the folly of shunning natgas for their electricity generation.
Rest assured those of us who closely follow these affairs will inform the much wider audience of the self destructive consequences of allowing know nothing, morbidly guilt ridden “experts” to direct society wide destruction under the guise of Saving the Planet.
Please let the door hit you in your collective asses as you fall down the chute of history, forevermore bearing the most abject, deservedly earned ridicule and scorn.
Ghung on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 3:44 pm
That was entertaining, coffeeguyzz. One could almost take you seriously.
Mick on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 3:49 pm
Hey speed racer we can stop burning them sofas now . We got bitchslaped good by Forbes but the good news is there’s sh@&t loads of cheap black goo we can use instead now and the smoke will still look the same a win win.!
MASTERMIND on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 3:54 pm
Conventional Oil Peaked in 2006 –IEA-EIA-NATURE-ENERGY
http://imgur.com/a/uCz7V
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v481/n7382/full/481433a.html
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544213009420
New Oil discoveries by scientists have been declining since 1965 and last year was the lowest in history –IEA
http://imgur.com/a/W60yn
We have been draining our oil reserves by consuming more oil than we discover since the 1980’s – ASPO
http://imgur.com/a/uJ0Rg
HSBC Global Bank warns 80% of the worlds conventional fields are declining and world oil shortages by 2020
https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/24/vzchQwb
Joe Clarkson on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 4:23 pm
IHS Markit is just talking up their book. How can they sell their proprietary survey info on how to “identify accurate formations for completion intervals on hundreds of thousands of wells” unless there is a bonanza of oil to be recovered?
And note that this bonanza is not limited to that which is “technically recoverable”, much less economically recoverable. One could say the same thing about the 1.8 trillion barrels of oil in the Wind River kerogen deposits. I expect IHS Markit to tout that ‘discovery’ sooner or later.
onlooker on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 4:45 pm
https://businessmirror.com.ph/shale-oil-permian-hyperbole/
“However, analysts say that, if the excitement over the Permian is to last, oil prices will need to stabilize at more than $50 a barrel, and the banks will need to keep funneling money to Permian producers, because without it their cash flows are insufficient to finance expansion.”
dissident on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 5:01 pm
@onlooker
That’s the definition of a Ponzi scheme: endless input of new money and forever receding beyond the horizon of the returns on investment. How come the conventional oil extraction did not require this sort of racket? According to the true believers who think oil will never run out or even production will never decline, the non-conventional production is as rock solid as the conventional production. That on its face does not add up.
onlooker on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 5:06 pm
Magnifently stated Dissident. And remember Permian is supposed to be the best and strongest of the Shale plays, does not bode well thus for the entire Shale Sham.
energy investor on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 5:31 pm
hoodathort?
We live on a piece of rock, 8,000 miles in diameter that flies around the sun. It isn’t growing any bigger, but for some reason the oil able to be found on it is infinite.
I wonder where it all comes from?
Surely we must start using it up soon?
(irony alert)
makati1 on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 5:37 pm
Peak oil is old news.
Peak debt is the current cliff we are about to go over in America. Retirement plans are one market crash from extinction. States are going bankrupt. The National Debt is now at the point of no return and getting bloated by millions of dollars every minute. Personal debt is strangling the serfs. Millions of families living on the street. Still more than 40,000,000 in bread lines (food stamps). 100+ year old retail chains going bankrupt. And on and on. Only the time line is unknown. The end is obvious. A 3rd world America coming soon to a neighborhood near you.
Antius on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 5:46 pm
Who are these people trying to convince?
shortonoil on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 5:54 pm
“the basin still has somewhere between 60 and 70 billion barrels of producible oil to give up in coming years.”
Venezuela has 20 times that amount of resource, and they are eating their cats and dogs. Saudi Arabia has 4 times that amount, and they are falling behind by $135 billion per year. We’ve got 60 Gb of high test camel pee, and the world is saved? Connecting the dots is very difficult for some!
Mick on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 6:46 pm
Lucky the Saudis have plenty of camels they will need all the pee that can get there hands on
marmico on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 7:17 pm
Saudi Arabia has 4 times that amount, and they are falling behind by $135 billion per year
More BS from ETP Bozo, the fookenstoopidretard.
First half 2017 KSA deficit was 73 billion riyals (~$20 billion USD)
MASTERMIND on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 7:36 pm
makati1
Oil Shortages > Economic Collapse > Anarchy
Mick on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 7:39 pm
Thats right kiddies marmi says there nothing to worrie about its just a bad dteam . Now go back to bed and stop reading scary etp stories
makati1 on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 8:01 pm
MM, oil is not short, only the ability to purchase it is. There is plenty of oil and there will be plenty left after the collapse.
Economic collapse is definitely in the developed world’s future. Not so much in the rest of the world. There will be inconveniences, but, if your country is not in debt and your people are not used to living a Western lifestyle, they will hardly notice. Typical here in the Ps.
Anarchy, and worse, is already appearing in the US. The prez ignores laws when they get in his way. He already has dictatorial powers thanks to Bush Jr. Diplomacy is dead. Freedom of speech is being murdered. Gestapo tactics are being used by police everywhere. Drug use is going exponential. Congress is useless. Insanity rules inside the beltway. And on and on…
marmico on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 8:45 pm
Mick, as a certifiable retarded member of the ETP Bozo Club, have you put your share of the annual dues in the collection plate, so ETP Bozo can pay off his losing “oil price” bet?
Do you think that ETP Bozo is such a fookenstoopidretard that he will bet that the price of WTI will not exceed $1.68 a barrel in 2021?
MASTERMIND on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 8:48 pm
makati1
The end of Western Civilization, from China to Europe, to the US, will not occur when oil runs out. The economic and social chaos will occur when supplies are merely reduced sufficiently.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 8:49 pm
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-minister-sees-end-of-oil-price-slump-1476870790
The Oil Age may come to an end for a shortage of oil. ~ Saudi saying
GregT on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 9:06 pm
“MM, oil is not short, only the ability to purchase it is. There is plenty of oil and there will be plenty left after the collapse.”
The cheap affordable oil, peaked somewhere back around the turn of the century, exactly as Hubbert predicted that it would.
makati1 on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 9:53 pm
MM, oil will not run out. China will have the ability to buy it long after the US doesn’t. Is it arrogance that Americans believe that the rest of the world is going to go down because they do? Or is it the “exceptionalist/indispensable” propaganda bullshit that they have been fed for decades?
China and Russia are building a financial system independent of that the West uses. It will be put in place when the US falls. Maybe before. Be patient. Do you own gold? LOL
BTW: The Ps uses ~400,000 bbls/day. 1/40 that of the US. Who will hurt most?
Mick on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 10:24 pm
Hey marmi when your trolling days are over try getting into stand up comedy your hilarious
TommyWantsHisMommy on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 11:21 pm
As with all of this. Give it time. We’ll find out sooner or later who is right/who is wrong. I’m in no rush.
Apneaman on Thu, 28th Sep 2017 11:25 pm
Hey marmi, sticking with barrels as the unit of measurement, how many barrels of horse shit do you figure you have left? Methinks that’s an infinite resource as long as you are above ground.
Go Speed Racer on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 12:26 am
There is one good way
to make Peak Oil Theory
into a steaming load of BS.
Build enough nuclear reactors,
with associated chemical towers,
to synthesize the crude oil
from starting with CO2 and convert
it back to oil.
Go Speed Racer on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 12:27 am
That way you got all the
oil you want. Otherwise
whoopsie it all runs out.
Mick on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 1:07 am
Nuclear reators speed uour going all hi tech. What happened to good old sofa and tire reactors
Danny on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 1:23 am
http://www.greenpeace.to/publications/gpsea_agrochemical-use-in-the-philip.pdf
Fertilizer use up x10, yields up x2-3.
Davy on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 1:56 am
“MM, oil will not run out. China will have the ability to buy it long after the US doesn’t.”
Who say, you mkat? Have you been reading tea leaves? Do you have any backup on that? Nope
joe on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 2:27 am
Tight oil has been doing great ever since the great recession destroyed interest rates. At 3 or 4 percent tight oil is not profitable enough without hundred dollar oil, and that wipes out demand over the medium term. Tight oil is shackled to the dollar.
Darrell Cloud on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 7:28 am
We are in the last stages of the energy wars boys and girls. Gen. Clark told us about the list of countries to be invaded back in 2008.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNOWeUH1PDk
It is no mistake that the seven countries listed are either oil producers or are geographically crucial to the corridors of oil production. The central planners have read the reports. They know the trends. High finance and manipulation have successfully flooded the market with petroleum products and substitutes so that gas prices have remained fairly low. Anybody who is awake knows this is a temporary phenomenon that will be inevitably impacted by depletion of sweet spots in production and the consequences of exponential money creation.
The dynamic that is largely invisible to the general population is the overall net energy decline that has been going on for decades. More and more energy is being expended in the extraction and refining process. The result of this decline is less and less net energy to run the economy. Cheap energy is the life blood of the system. The frayed infrastructure, the contracting economy, the collapsing social welfare Ponzi schemes are all evidence of this ongoing contraction of net energy.
The wars will continue until they are no longer economically viable. Then we will face systemic collapse.
MASTERMIND on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 8:21 am
makati1
The US makes up 24 percent of the global GDP. So yes we will take the whole world down with us. And you don’t need to run out of oil to cause collapse. Just running short will be enough to do the trick.
Go Speed Racer on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 8:21 am
Hi Mick, yeah I have to clarify.
The entire USA electric grid can be
sustainably powered, by clean and
safe, too cheap to meter, old furniture
and tire fires. Why just burning down
a single large thrift store in a metropolitan
area will power 28,000 homes for a year,
actually 35,000 homes if there is a vinyl
record section in that thrift store.
But. Now we are talking about overpowering
Mother Nature and creating our own
barrels of crude oil. Reversing the process of
Internal combustion engines. This stretches well
beyond the energy of what a conventional
Sofa and tire fire can provide.
Yes to synthesize crude oil it’s going to take
nuclear reactors. But don’t be disappointed
because once in awhile even a nuclear
reactor goes Ka-Blam-O, melting down with
hydrogen explosions and pieces raining down
out of the sky. So don’t worry even when synthesizing
nuclear powered barrels of crude oil, there should
still be great big clouds of black smoke eventually.
Outcast_Searcher on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 10:03 am
coffeeguyzz: Bravo, for a well written post. It’s nice to see someone who can write better than the average 9 year old point out how silly most of the hard crash crowd is (re denial of all factual data they don’t like) once in a while.
I’m a moderate, and think human stupidity and lack of planning will make things a struggle (as they’ve generally been throughout human written history). However, exploiting scientific progress will continue to be very helpful.
If we could just take the step somehow to get people to be willing to stop escalating the population, things could get much better over time as things like clean green energy happen in coming decades.
But social advancement is much less likely to be rapid, compared to scientific advancement, unfortunately.
rockman on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 10:06 am
Racer – “There is one good way to make Peak Oil Theory into a steaming load of BS.” Shame on you…I think you’re more clued in then your statement implies. First the obvious: Peak Oil is not a theory. It is a guaranteed certainty: there will come a day when the world produces CRUDE OIL AT A RATE that will never be surpassed in the future. How that STATISTICAL REALITY comes about can be speculated upon. Might be due to a insufficient number of COMMERCIALLY viable projects to drill. Or a topped out demand for crude oil. Or as a competitive alternative is developed.
But for whatever reason there will come a day when the world will never exceed the production rate of crude on that day. And that day may have happened recently. But if so it will be decades before we can be very confident we had reached that global PEAK CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION RATE.
Yes, that’s the discussion this site was founded to explore: the point in history when the world reaches the MAXIMUM PRODUCTION RATE OF CRUDE OIL it will ever experience. We can discuss the volume of crude oil the world has left to produce. We can discuss the volume of crude from undiscovered sources the world has left to produce. We can discuss increase of proven reserves by utilizing yet to be developed technology. We can discuss the development of new tech to produce any substance that could replace much of the crude oil the world consumes. We can discuss new energy sources such as wind, solar, nukes, etc that can produce enough affordable electricity the allow a significant transition from ICE’s to EV’s.
And anyone can toss in any other scenario they choose. But none of it changes the DEFINITION of peak oil: the maximum PRODUCTION RATE OF CRUDE OIL the world will ever experience. Which is a point made by others that I may have missed by skimming too fast through the posts. But the fact is this article is essentially INVALID from the start by incorrectly stating the meaning of PEAK OIL…the maximum PRODUCTION RATE OF CRUDE OIL the world will ever experience.
Which isn’t to say many of the responding posts weren’t valid or at least interesting. But just that they didn’t directly address the subject of this thread: the MAXIMUM RATE OF CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION THE WORLD WILL EXPERIENCE. IOW peak oil.
rockman on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 10:28 am
BTW this week cannot be a good time or bad with respect to folks tracking peak oil: no new data on global crude oil production rates. The latest estimate I could find was from last July or so. And that shows the world is still producing less crude oil then in late 2016 when the maximum rate ever experienced was noted. It will take another 4 or 5 month to estimate where the global crude oil production rate was “this week”.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/world_crude_oil_production
MASTERMIND on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 10:38 am
makati1
German Government (leaked) Peak Oil study concludes: oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of 90% of all manufactured products, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments
That means you buddy! And your island! I wouldn’t put to much trust in the Chinese government. They are heavily invested in renewable’s. Nuff said.
https://www.permaculture.org.au/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf
MASTERMIND on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 10:40 am
Rockman – Yes Peak oil is a theory. You uneducated dimwit. Just like Gravity theory, And Germ theory. Its just always called peak oil for short.
dave thompson on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 12:28 pm
What is listed as “crude oil” since 2005 or so is completely different from what was listed as “crude oil” before 2005. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=12&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjKyYfG9crWAhVIiRoKHX1EDTcQFghZMAs&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.croftsystems.net%2Foil-gas-blog%2Fconventional-vs.-unconventional&usg=AOvVaw2a5Ao1fCJX4ZL5BfYVJCZW
Jean Paul Getty on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 12:52 pm
Propaganda
Go Speed Racer on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 1:19 pm
Hello there Mr Rockman,
How is it going?
I hope your white Cadillac
with steer horns on the hood,
is riding smooth, and your beam pumps
have no downtime.
Well yes i agree every word you said.
When Mastermind does his napalm
flame thrower at ya (I will tell him not to
do that, not polite) anyway he is exploring
the semantic between a theory and a fact.
Example, water molecule contains an
Oxygen atom and two Hydrogen atoms.
To most of us, this is a fact.
But for some like Mastermind it’s a theory,
because he’s not fully accepting the base
knowledge that makes it into a fact.
Now the peak oil. I am with you 100%
that it’s a fact. Not a theory.
However Mastermind and his flame thrower
both decided it’s the other way around.
When I wrote my stuff, I sarcastically
meant it, the only way to overturn Peak
Oil is if we could manufacture Crude Oil.
With all I see of humanity and mankind,
We should already be exploring that,
government subsidized. We would make
the crude oil because it’s not something this
society can ever do without.
The best type of reactor would be liquid fuel
thorium. Burning crude oil is exothermic
so making it is endothermic. Indeed it is,
to a colossal level.
We would discover that making crude oil
using heat sources would result in crude
oil that is $3000 a barrel. However that
is our upcoming reality AND if we were
to be properly exploring that as though
we were civilized, likely there could be
significant cost reductions getting it down
to $485 a barrel, but fully synthetic AND
drawing in the CO2 out of the atmosphere.
As to the purpose of this chat board,
it is to write at the level of 4 year olds while
shooting flame throwers and throwing
spears at each other.
Seriously yeah it should be for discussing
decline rates of oil production. Naturally
Any possible “antidote” such as piping
in the methane clouds of Titan, or windmills
that don’t work or solar panels that stop
generating when one bird poop lands on
them, yeah the alternatives are also of
interest.
Long ago I noticed if I write anything
intelligent I get flamed so I usually just
advocate we all have sofa and tire
fires in our backyards, since that will
make America Great Again. Those kind
of posts work better here, than debating which
type of nuclear power plant is more viable.
As to garbage and sofa fires, I actually am
a vigorous proponent of meticulous
human-assisted recycling. No more
welfare checks, they can sort the trash and
Disassemble old vacuum cleaners at
safe clean garbage sorting centers.
The remainder can be burned at
Industrial incinerators, generating major
energy.
I think one of the biggest crimes of this
society is landfill dumps which is a
massive ruination of what could have been
Recycled resources and electric energy.
I simplify that to “everybody should burn
a sofa in their backyard”
because this chat board never seemed
able to handle anything deeper than that
last sentence. So I think I will get back
to dumping diesel fuel on my sofa out
back to make black smoke and choke
out the neighbors, and hope
you will have a great day Mr Rockman !
Go Speed Racer on Fri, 29th Sep 2017 1:22 pm
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