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Page added on January 26, 2019
Is China’s plan to use a nuclear bomb detonator to release shale gas
China is planning to apply the same technology used to detonate a nuclear bomb over Hiroshima during the second world war to access its massive shale gas reserves in Sichuan province. While success would mean a giant leap forward not only for the industry but also Beijing’s energy self-sufficiency ambitions, some observers are concerned about the potential risk of widespread drilling for the fuel in a region known for its devastating earthquakes.
Despite being home to the largest reserves of shale gas on the planet – about 31.6 trillion cubic metres according to 2015 figures from the US Energy Information Administration, or twice as much as the United States and Australia combined – China is the world’s biggest importer of natural gas, with about 40 per cent of its annual requirement coming from overseas.
In 2017, it produced just 6 billion cubic metres of shale gas, or about 6 per cent of its natural gas output for the whole year.
The problem is that 80 per cent of its deposits are located more than 3,500 metres (11,500 feet) below sea level, which is far beyond the range of hydraulic fracturing, the standard method for extraction.
But all that could be about to change, after a team of nuclear weapons scientists led by Professor Zhang Yongming from the State Key Laboratory of Controlled Shock Waves at Xian Jiaotong University in Shaanxi province, released details of a new “energy rod” that has the power to plumb depths never before thought possible.
Unlike hydraulic fracturing, or fracking as it is more commonly known, which uses highly pressurised jets of water to release gas deposits trapped in sedimentary rock, Zhang’s torpedo-shaped device uses a powerful electric current to generate concentrated, precisely controlled shock waves to achieve the same result.
He told the South China Morning Post that while the technology had yet to be applied outside the laboratory, the first field test was set to take place in Sichuan in March or April.
“We are about to see the result of a decade’s work,” he said.
Chen Jun, a professor at Southwest Petroleum University in Chengdu, Sichuan’s capital, is not involved with the programme but said he was eagerly awaiting the results of the trials.
“A technological breakthrough could trigger another shale gas revolution,” he said.
Shale gas is another name for methane (or natural gas) that is trapped in impermeable rock deep underground. Unlike conventional natural gas which is in permeable rocks, shale gas does not flow and so cannot be reached by simply drilling a well.
The widespread use of fracking in the United States began in 2007 and heralded a boom in energy production in the country. In the decade that followed its natural gas output rose 40 per cent, prices fell by more than two thirds and America went from importer to exporter.
One of the main reasons for the success of the so called shale gas revolution was the relative accessibility of the fuel. In many cases, including at several sites in Pennsylvania and New York state, the deposits were found just a few hundred metres below ground.
The deeper the shale beds, the higher the water pressure needed to frack the rock and release the gas. Reaching China’s reserves, at 3.5km (2.2 miles) underground, would require a water pressure of about 100 megapascals, or about the same as is found at the bottom of the Mariana Trench in the Pacific Ocean, the deepest point on Earth.
No pump, pipe or drill shaft wall material has the strength to withstand such a crush.
No surprise then that previous efforts to tap into China’s rich gas seams by state-owned energy giants like Sinopec and CNPC, often working in partnership with US firms, failed to deliver.
Zhang hopes his alternative, developed by a team that has worked on some of the world’s most advanced nuclear weapons systems, can change all that, but he also knows the proof of the pudding is in the eating.
“The technology was born in a dust-free laboratory,” he said. “Not many people believe it can be used in a mine.
Zhang and his team have dubbed their creation an “energy concentration rod” as it is able to control the release of explosive bolts of energy into an extremely short, precisely calculated period of time so as to maximise the fracturing effect of the shock waves.
It works by passing a strong electric current along a specially coated wire coil – encased by a metal shell – that is submerged in water. When the wire vaporises it produces a cloud of plasma – the extremely hot, electrically charged matter that makes up the sun – within which is a huge amount of energy just waiting to be released.
“The shock wave generated by the device can be as high as 200 megapascals at close range, which is expected to produce a fracture zone up to 50 metres in diameter,” Zhang said.
The method, known as exploding wire, enables scientists to control the energy, duration and even direction of the explosion. The same principle was used to detonate the atomic bomb code named “Little Boy” that was dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.
Despite that commonality, Zhang’s device does not create a nuclear blast, so is fundamentally different to what the United States was doing in the 1960s, when scientists there detonated a nuclear bomb underground to boost natural gas production. The former Soviet Union also used thermal nuclear weapons for mining and in dam construction.
Trade war: China’s natural gas tariff will kill off US projects, says Canadian firm
Also, unlike a traditional detonator, which fires just once, Zhang’s energy rod has been designed to withstand hundreds of massive blasts.
After each one, the rod is hoisted back up the shaft and a jet of water is injected under high pressure into the cavity to further open up the rock. The rod is then lowered back into position and is ready to fire again.
The device can “generate shock waves repeatedly … like a machine gun”, Zhang said, adding that because the wire was encased and submerged the rod did not generate sparks, so reducing the safety risk.
While the scientist has concerns about how well his creation will work in shale rock, it has already been used to release potentially hazardous gas deposits from coal beds and is now recommended by the government as a way to improve both safety and productivity in the mining industry.
Wang Chengwen, a professor at the China University of Petroleum in Qingdao, Shandong province, said that one of the advantages of the new technology was that it was potentially more environmentally friendly than other fracking methods.
The waste water generated by traditional shale gas production contained large amounts of toxic chemicals that could contaminate rivers and underground water sources, he said.
However, it was yet to be seen if the force generated by the rod would be enough to fracture rocks at such extreme depths, he said.
Wang said that as the technology was still in its infancy, extra measures would have to be taken to ensure the safety of workers at the drilling site, while mass production would also require the construction of a huge network of underground support facilities.
“Fracturing is just part of shale gas production,” he said.
Aside from the technical challenges, Chen Qun, a professor at the school of water resources and hydropower at Sichuan University in Chengdu, said that scientists and politicians would have to consider the potentially devastating environmental damage that the new technology could cause.
While large shale gas reserves have been identified at seven sites across China, half of them are in Sichuan, a region of southwest China that is notorious for its deadly earthquake and landslides.
A magnitude 8 quake there in May 2008 left 87,000 people dead, 370,000 injured and 5 million homeless.
Chen said that while the shock waves produced by Zhang’s device would be relatively localised, if the technology was applied at multiple sites it could change the underlying geophysics of the region and put man-made infrastructure, like buildings and dams, at risk.
One of the largest shale gas deposits to be found in recent years is located near the city of Yichang, which is home to the Three Gorges Dam that spans the Yangtze River and is the world’s largest power station in terms of installed capacity.
A study by Stanford University in 2017 linked thousands of small tremors in the southern US state of Arkansas to shale gas production, and warned they might be early indicators of much bigger quakes to come.
Shi Lei, an associate professor with the school of environment at Tsinghua University, said that while increased shale gas production would be good for China’s economy and its energy supply chain, a possible downside was that it would lead to lower fossil fuel prices and thus hamper the development of renewable energy sources.
Moreover, whatever technological breakthroughs it made on shale gas extraction, China still had some way to go if it wanted to challenge the global order, Shi said.
“The US is the world leader on energy … and China can’t change that.”
His comments will be music to the ears of US President Donald Trump who has demanded China buy more American shale gas as a way to reduce its massive trade surplus.
166 Comments on "Is China’s plan to use a nuclear bomb detonator to release shale gas"
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 4:34 pm
“That because of taxes to pay for social programs. Yet Denmark and Germany are FAR more competitive on world markets than the US. Germany is the largest exporter, the US the largest importer.”
Nonsense, cloogged, that is way over generalized. There are many different markets where competitive advantage is realized. You are talking out your ass again. Germany is not the largest exporter either? WTF, go to bed you are not talking smart.
“China leads the world in exports in 2017. China was followed by the United States, with exports valued at 1.58 trillion US dollars, and Germany, with exports valued at 1.05 trillion US dollars.”
https://tinyurl.com/htj7sns
BTW, if you take out Germany’s captive southern EU markets the export numbers go way down
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 4:36 pm
“On top of that Europeans need far less energy than Americans to make a million buck. https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2014/10/04/energy-efficiency-country-ranking/”
Kindergarten lessons again
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 4:40 pm
“German electricity price 29 cent. Real production cost: 13 cent. The rest is tax, tariffs, VAT, etc:”
You can’t just yank out 26 cent and say this is taxes. Those taxes will have to be paid elsewhere and that lowers competitiveness somewhere else. Talking out your ass again clogged.
Cloggie on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 5:16 pm
“And its in german which you know I can’t speak.”
No worries, I would never be so cruel as to hold you to high standards.
Fortunately for you, you have me around to explain things to you.
Cloggie on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 5:18 pm
“Kindergarten lessons again”
You have to adopt to your audience.
I AM THE MOB on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 5:19 pm
Venezuela
https://imgur.com/a/r2xDE7A
I love the smell of oil wars in the morning!
Clogg doesn’t believe in peak oil as the US goes on a rampage invading half the oil producing counties around the world..
I AM THE MOB on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 5:23 pm
Clogg knows his fate..He just blindly denies it..He is going to die a horrfying death over the next decade..He will follow his ugly incel leader hitler with a bullet to the head..
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 5:24 pm
“You have to adopt to your audience.”
Then next time you should try pre-school.
JuanP identity theft on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 5:28 pm
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 5:24 pm
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:11 pm
Your wasting your time if you think you can have an intelligent discussion with me Cloggie Sir.
I made myself clear to everyone that my agenda with you is emotional. Just like it is with makati1.
Davy on Sat, 4th Nov 2017 5:10 am
“dumb n Dutch, are you having problems ignoring the fact that I effectively moderate and neuter the extremism that emanates from your foul orifices.”
“You picked the wrong guy to screw with. I am going to make your stay here miserable daily. Just like mad kat your stay will be irritating.”
“I promise you that you piece of shit.”
JuanP identity theft on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:12 pm
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:11 pm
JuanP mental condition review on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:15 pm
Here is the identity theft done by mentally unstable juanp today:
JuanP indentity theft on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 4:13 am
Davy on Sun, 27th Jan 2019 7:21 pm
Davy on Sun, 27th Jan 2019 7:33 pm
Davy on Sun, 27th Jan 2019 7:49 pm
Davy on Sun, 27th Jan 2019 8:09 pm
JuanP identity theft on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 5:45 am
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 5:30 am
JuanP identity theft on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 5:59 am
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 5:46 am
JuanP identity theft on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:11 am
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:02 am
JuanP identity theft on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:36 am
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:22 am
JuanP identity theft on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:58 am
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:51 am
JuanP identity theft on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 7:08 am
JuanP identity theft on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 5:28 pm
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 5:24 pm
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 7:02 am
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 9:43 am
juanp puppeteering report on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:16 pm
@davyscum on Sun, 27th Jan 2019 10:20 pm Way to go davyscumbag. You’ve completely wrecked this board for everyone else now. You fucking degenerate scumbag loser!
Anti-AnusSkum on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 9:25 am Anti-Anus, Shut-up. You add nothing of value to the conversation except to aid your right-wing political buddy, DavySkum. Your motives are so obvious.
DavySkum on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 9:31 am DavySkum- You have way too much time. Must get boring having been exiled to the Ozarks after bankrupting family and friends in a failed agricultural scam. Thank goodness for mommy and daddy’s trust fund. You like going to the Ozarks playing deplorable. Driving around in your big pick-up truck with mud flaps so you look authentic. What an imposter.
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:18 pm
The above list has been saved to my notes.
I plan on giving it to my kids to read when they grow up so they can see how much of a lunatic I was.
Juanp mental illness noise on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:18 pm
Here is his mentally unstable mind in action:
(part1)
JuanP on Sun, 27th Jan 2019 8:52 pm Davy produced an incredible amount of nonsense, falsehoods, distortions, and lies today. He also bullied and insulted almost every single person who posted something here. It has been one of his best days ever. He invested at least 16 hours to this shit just today, and who knows how long it took him to compile his widdle reports! If you are not getting paid for this, Exceptionalist, you are the saddest, most pathetic, widdle pussy I have ever come across! JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:06 am Delusional Davy “Juanp just wants to control the board. He does this by any means possible.” That was not a projection. I dare anyone to tell the board’s pussy otherwise! ROFLMFAO! JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:09 am Delusional Davy “My god what a dumbass.” Not a projection! LOL! JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:15 am Delusional Davy “I have a good family life and friends.” Says the guy who openly admitted that his ex wife and his daughter won’t speak to him or see him, whose twins live with their mom, who also left him, supposedly lives in a cabin by himself, and spends most of his time alone. I don’t believe anyone in the world loves you, Davy, you are a thoroughly unlovable person. And, I also don’t believe you have a single friend. Who would want to be friends with a monster like you? JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:19 am Delusional Davy “When you get to my age (50’s)…” You have said in the past you were in your sixties. Were you lying then or are you lying now, liar? JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:22 am Delusional Davy “My wife is happy I keep up on the issues. She likes what I am doing with my doomstead/permaculture farm.” Nonsense! Unless your wife is a retard! What kind of woman would be happy living with a deranged lunatic like you in a 480 sqft cabin? Your italian wife is obviously as imaginary as your farms are! ROFLMFAO! JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:25 am Delusional Davy “I don’t hold a grudge.” ROFLMFAO! Says the most vengeful and spiteful person I have come across in my life! I couldn’t make shit like this up! LOL! You are such a pathetic pussy, Davy! JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:30 am Delusional Davy “I am invested in this forum more than many.” There is nobody more invested in this shit than you, Exceptionalist! It is very clear that your life in the real world has to be even more sad and pathetic than your life here. You are a sad, pathetic fuck! JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:33 am Delusional Davy “So long story short the verbal abuse just makes me stronger.” You are going to be the strongest pussy in the world by the time I am done with you then! ROFLMFAO! JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:36 am Delusional Davy “My life has been a battle and I am hardened by it.” If you meant to say damaged by it, then you are right. Life didn’t harden you; you were born a sadistic, narcissistic psychopath. JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:37 am Davy is a liar! JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:37 am Davy is a pussy! JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:38 am Davy is an intellectual coward! JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:38 am Davy is a bully! JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:40 am Davy is living in denial because he is incapable of admitting what he and his country are! JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:40 am Davy is delusional! JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:41 am Davy is a lunatic! JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:42 am JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 8:43 am Davy is alone with his imaginary friends because he is thoroughly unlovable! JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 10:39 am Delusional Davy “Wow Juanpee brain you are giving me great material for my nightly report.” Knock yourself out, fool! And don’t forget to save a copy for your kids! ROFLMFAO! JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 10:48 am “JuanP, for god sake get some Prozac. You have ruined this board with endless meaningless trash comments. No one is impressed so give it a rest. Do you not have a real job to go to?” This comment, supposedly written by Antius, sounds just like Delusional Davy. The sentence “No one is impressed by it so give it a rest” has been used by the Exceptionalist many times before. Language usage is like a fingerprint and unique to each individual. You are not fooling anyone, Davy, just making a fool of your self with your sock puppets and identity theft. These games you play are a reflection of your intellectual weakness, cowardice and
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:21 pm
The above reports have been saved to my notes.
I plan on giving them to my kids to read when they grow up so they can see how much of a lunatic I was.
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:22 pm
Here comes part two. wait for it…….
Juanp mental illness on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:23 pm
DirtyJuanPimmigrant. I have a vast, and highly successful farm, that totals some 400 acres, or, 500 acres, or a little less than 1 acre, depending on who I am trying to impress at any given moment here at PO.com. When TSHTF, I will laughing my head off at the thought of you dining on drown rat souffle and raw seagull in the sunken ruins of downtown Miami. I however, thanks to my 400, 500 or 1 acre holdings mentioned above, will be dining on fresh fruits and vegetables, goat cheese, and drinking fine wine grown in my Italian doomsteads vineyards and then flown to America in an Israeli-made autonomous electric plane. (Cloggie will be the pilot, but not really, he will just be reading a book or something, while the planes robo-brain does all the actual work). Cloggie is not exactly what you would call hands-on prepper like me, he is more of an abstract, theoretical, ‘could be-maybe-someday’ kind of prepper. I am ok with that though so its all good. Anyhow thanks to my hands-on-prepping and genius level perma-culture skills, I will be well positioned to be declared King of Greater America (for life. Once crowned, it will be a mere formality to appoint NedeLiar my Minster of Education and Science. You JuanP, otoh, will spend your days fighting death matches in the octagon just to win a filthy bag of half-melted M&M’s, and if you are lucky, maybe some stale crackers as well. But only if your
Juanp mental illness on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:24 pm
(more)
performance in the cage happens to please the crowd of gap-toothed, slack-jawed and radiation-scarred mutant wet-back chico spectators screaming for your blood in the stands. As you slowly waste away to nothing due to malnutrition, you will wish you had not such a big meany to meanie to me on the internet, especially after all the effort I made to be the most fair and balanced thinker and gentleman farmer to ever exist. However, as befitting my legendary and widely acknowledged sense of fairness and balance, I may dispatch one of my Lear-Jets to Florida to air-drop you a food-aid package consisting of a bottle of tequila and a few taco shells. My Lear-Jet will be powered by bio-fuels derived from goat-feces so the flight to drop you your taco-shells will be 100% carbon-neutral. Dumbass Your wasting your time if you think you can have an intelligent discussion with me Cloggie Sir. I made myself clear to everyone that my agenda with you is emotional. Just like it is with makati1.“dumb n Dutch, are you having problems ignoring the fact that I effectively moderate and neuter the extremism that emanates from your foul orifices.” “You picked the wrong guy to screw with. I am going to make your stay here miserable daily. Just like mad kat your stay will be irritating.” “I promise you that you piece of shit.”
Words of wisdom for juanp on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:25 pm
Antius on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 9:09 am JuanP, for god sake get some Prozac. You have ruined this board with endless meaningless trash comments. No one is impressed so give it a rest. Do you not have a real job to go to? Or at least, something meaningful to say on a remotely energy / geopolitical topic?
Davy on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:55 pm
Well said, Words of wisdom for juanp, and welcome to the forum. We need more like you, and less like Makatooo and DirtyJuanP. Those two have tried to destroy my forum and censor my views and lengthy essays for years.
If I may ask, what country are you from friend?
More Davy Sock Puppetry on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 7:09 pm
Words of wisdom for juanp on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:25 pm
Davy using a sock puppet to quote his earlier identity theft on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 7:44 pm
How much lower will this idiot stoop?
Words of wisdom for juanp on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 6:25 pm
Antius on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 9:09 am JuanP, for god sake get some Prozac. You have ruined this board with endless meaningless trash comments. No one is impressed so give it a rest. Do you not have a real job to go to? Or at least, something meaningful to say on a remotely energy / geopolitical topic?
JuanP on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 10:07 pm
So, I worked eight hours and then went out to dinner at a restaurant that uses my produce, and I come back here and see that Delusional Davy has wasted another day of his life posting bullshit here all day long. What a sad fuck he is.
makati1 on Mon, 28th Jan 2019 11:38 pm
JuanP, Davy and his numerous sock puppets have no life. The newest one, “george”, is probably going to be about as entertaining as the others. In other words, not worth reading.
Sum on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 3:11 am
My Dearest Friend Davy,
Hello my brave friend. You have earned my unwavering support and loyalty. You must not give one inch to the extremists Clogged, JuanPee, boney joe, Makatoo, Der Hound, and last but not least anonyskum.
These extremists must be moderated each and every day.
You have the allegiance of the PO.com silent majority.
Cloggie on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 3:23 am
This site is becoming a joke and a playground for juveniles, showing that the “peak oil” topic is going nowhere. It might as well close down itself. Perhaps the admin follows the example of theoildrum. The torum could start all over again with state of the art board software, under a more postive name, like energy-transition.com.
Peak oil is dead, another failed idea. No even Heinberg believes peak oil anymore.
Most posters here resemble those Japanese soldiers, who were hidden in the jungle of SE-Asia, in the seventies, thinking that WW2 was still ongoing.
Cloggie on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 4:02 am
@Antius, one of the last serious guys left.
Here a thesis from a student of TU Delft about the application of borohydride in shipping, in casu the sail ship cruiser Stad Amsterdam:
https://repository.tudelft.nl/islandora/object/uuid%3A58a04edd-3392-4642-b6d0-dfbeee9a89be
The TU Delft is taking this new hydrogen storage development very serious.
As a reminder, we are talking prices for 1 kg renewable hydrogen for 5 euro.
1 kg hydrogen is 33 kWh
1 kWh in a Chevvy Bolt is 8 km
So 260 km for 5 euro.
As I said earlier, since early this year I have become a renewable energy Cornucopian.
Peak oil demand 202x.
Davy on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 4:30 am
Though I say with a heavy heat, I think you may be right Nederliar. Perhaps it is time for you and I to find some other place to spread our message. Despite yeas of my documenting, nuetuering, and moderating here, often spending upwards of 20 hours a day, the gangbanger asswipes have taken over. You just tell me where you want to go, and I will be there, for you, as I always have. These dumbasses are simply too stupid and immature to understand the wisdom and knowledge that the two of us bring to the discussion. There are likely hundreds, if not thousands of sites that would be ecstatic to have the two of us as regulars on their board.
Me, with my extensive background in moderating asswipes, and you, with your unmatched grasp of scientific and technical matters, not to mention an amateur historian that puts all the so-called ‘academics’, to shame.
What do you say Cloggie, time for us to de-camp this place for good and never look back, right my friend?
Davy on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 4:43 am
“This site is becoming a joke and a playground for juveniles”
No shit clogged, one look at last night which is mainly the extremist orgy time and we see little if anything was said between junap, anon, and makato. BTW, idiots makato and juanp you support they flank for you.
“showing that the “peak oil” topic is going nowhere.”
Not true, I am not going to elaborate on the systematic dynamics of peak oil forces. I have to do this for you every few days. Peak oil is not dead and it is converging with other destructive forces in negative feedback loops. It was misinterpreted by most people except those in extreme denial like a Mike lynch type.
“It might as well close down itself. Perhaps the admin follows the example of theoildrum. The torum could start all over again with state of the art board software, under a more postive name, like energy-transition.com.”
I do think this site is dying and the software antiquated but it would work if we had the right people here. We have a people problem not a software problem. We do need a minimum of software to stop the identity theft and sock puppets that allow mentally ill people like juanp so much play time. You are part of the problem too, clogged. This is your personal sounding board for multiple agendas much of it very indirectly related to energy.
“Peak oil is dead, another failed idea. No even Heinberg believes peak oil anymore.”
Nonsense, more of your cornucopian touchy feely attitude or a nright carbonless future albeit you do lust for a bone crushing WWIII. Bad news is around every corner and all you do is throw out yet to be proven or commercialized technologies. It is all about technologies for you. You have little understanding of the economy except who is supposedly better or worse and fail to touch on bad behavior which is the chief problem. It is about a fantasy political and economic arrangement that will drive these technologies for you and that is a PBM empire and a European renewable transition. It takes a healthy economy to drive a transition and our civilization does not have that. Europe does not have that either
“Most posters here resemble those Japanese soldiers, who were hidden in the jungle of SE-Asia, in the seventies, thinking that WW2 was still ongoing.”
Great analogy, you and makato fit that perfectly. Juanp fits the isis terrorist. LOL
JuanP identity theft on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 4:45 am
Davy on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 4:30 am
Davy on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 4:51 am
juanp, keep up the good work there buddy. I will have a great report tonight. It sure take a lot of energy to say nothing. BTW, thanks for the attention. OH, thanks for the acknowledgement you have been beaten. Why else would someone dedicate their intellectual life to mindless attacks on a forum site? Wow you are a gutter dweller. I think you are Bipolar myself. You are likely self-medicating too. With this type of behavior I imagine your wife is gone or she is just a dumb cunt. OH, I guess you are not volunteering anymore to pull weeds at the premeculture gardens. LOL. Have fun today I am not going to waste too much time on you except to document your shit. It is kind off enjoyable BTW
Happy Times are Here Again on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 4:51 am
Davy said in a brief moment of sanity, “What do you say Cloggie, time for us to de-camp this place for good and never look back, right my friend?”
Music to the ears of many. Twiddle dee and twiddle twat…. that’s what I call a perfect match.
Please don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.
Davy on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 4:57 am
“As a reminder, we are talking prices for 1 kg renewable hydrogen for 5 euro. 1 kg hydrogen is 33 kWh 1 kWh in a Chevvy Bolt is 8 km So 260 km for 5 euro.”
Clogged, you are not being holistic you are being snake oil. Your numbers are all about cost in a laboratory and theory. These numbers do not deal with a continental sized application. They do not deal with the cost of scaling this up to run a continent or a global economy. I am excited about hydrogen. I was excited back when I read the “The Hydrogen Economy [Jeremy Rifkin]” I hope for a speedy scaling up to what will likely be a niche and an enabler of some kind of mitigation and adaptation effort for a very bad time ahead.
JuanP sock on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 4:58 am
Happy Times are Here Again on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 4:51 am
Antius on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 7:10 am
Some thoughts on hydrogen – Part 1. For dollars signs, read Euros.
I decided to take a second look at the prospects for a hydrogen economy at Cloggie’s request. I have attempted to rely on peer reviewed scientific papers, though I appreciate that these may not be easily accessible to everyone here.
1. Concerning the cost of electrolysis infrastructure. The most up to date cost estimate for electrolysis comes from the ‘International Journal of Hydrogen Energy’ and is titled: ‘Future cost and performance of water electrolysis: An expert elicitation study’.
The paper produces cost projection for three electrolysis technologies at full scale production.
Technology 1: Alkali Electrolysis Cells. Full scale unit cost averaged at $1400/kWe in 2015 and was projected to be $1100/kWe by 2030.
Technology 2: Proton Exchange Membrane Electrolysis Cells. Full scale unit cost averaged at $2100/kWe in 2015 and was projected to be $800/kWe by 2030.
Technology 3: Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cells. Full scale unit cost averaged at $5800/kWe in 2015 and was projected to be $1100/kWe by 2030.
Whilst it is difficult to predict exactly where these costs will be in 10 years’ time, these estimates suggest that Alkali electrolysis can already deliver capital cost of $1400/KWe and that a cost of $1000/kWe is a reasonable assumption for one of the three technologies considered. Is Cloggie’s estimate of $500/kWe possible? Yes –with greater than expected cost reductions and large economy of scale driving down stack costs. But I think this should be considered a stretch case, rather than something that is automatically expected. For the time being, I will work with $1000/kWe, because it is the value supported by peer reviewed study.
2. The estimated 2030 lifetime of electrolysis cells is 60,000-90,000 hours (AEC); 20,000-90,000 hours (PEMEC); 30,000-90,000 hours (SOEC). I am going to assume a median value of 75,000 hours for SOEC. This translates to non-stop lifetime of 8.6 years, or 28.5 years at 30% capacity factor, assuming that thermal cycling does not result in unexpected damage. I am going to assume an interest rate of 5% on borrowed money and a flat repayment rate of $68.5/kWe, which allows complete payoff of capital cost in 27 years.
3. Stack efficiency. This includes losses to things like pumps, heaters and water purification, so it is a whole system, rather than simple cell efficiency. For AEC: 50-75%; for PEMEC: 50-78%. Pumping losses and thermal losses will all be minimised in systems scaled to hundreds of MW, so I will assume efficiency of 70% in a large scale, well optimised system.
4. Stack capacity factor. This depends heavily upon the assumptions made for the driving power source. An electrolysis plant using solar power in the desert will be in darkness ~50% of the time and illumination will follow a sinusoidal pattern between sunrise and sunset. I am going to assume a capacity factor of 30% and further assume that the liquefaction plant can absorb peaks in power supply by storing thermal energy in an intermediate cold store.
Putting these figures and assumptions together, an estimate can be made for the capital repayment costs associated with the electrolysis unit. At 70% efficiency, to produce 1kW hydrogen would require 1.43kWe cell capacity. The repayment costs are $97.86/year. At 30% capacity factor, the 1.43kWe cell will generate some 2630kWh of hydrogen per year. So the marginal capital cost per unit of hydrogen energy is 3.72 Euro-cent per kWh.
If the capacity factor can be increased to 50%, say, by using a mixture of renewable energy sources to provide the driver current, then marginal capital cost drops to 2.23 Euro-cent per kWh hydrogen. At 90% capacity factor, driven by a nuclear reactor, marginal capital cost declines to 1.24 Euro-cent per kWh hydrogen.
Absent from this calculation is any consideration of operations costs, electricity cost or profit. And of course we have not considered the energy or operations cost of any liquefaction plant. Ignoring liquefaction and assuming operating costs to be about 1/3rd of capital costs, some estimates can be made.
Solar powered scenario: Lazard (2018) provides a low-end LCOE for thin-film solar at $40/MWh. Given that we will probably choose to locate a hydrogen plant where there is plentiful sunshine, this value will be assumed. Some 1.42kWh of electricity are needed to produce 1kWh of hydrogen. This puts the electricity cost of 1kWh of hydrogen at 5.68 Euro-cent. The final LCOE for 1kWh of hydrogen gas produced using thin film solar is therefore: 1.33 x 3.72 + 5.68 = 10.64 Euro-cent per kWh.
The costs associated with a liquefaction (or other chemical conversion) and / or storage facility, will be additive to this.
Davy on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 7:38 am
I’m so proud of my widdle reports. They make me feel all important like.
Davy on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 8:15 am
Great report Antius keep them coming.
I suspect you next part might concern the scale up cost to civilization. LOL. We are talking huge cost alone to plant solar and wind gathering devices, adapt the grid, and harness storage strategies. We then need vehicle stock and homes retrofitted. We need to do all this while the global economy is in decline and decay within a planet in general decline and localized failure. We need to do this in times of social, economic, and military conflict. We need this during a time of a social narrative of relativity and drift with people being dumbed down by the digital age, poor diet and lack of physical activity. IOW, in the best of times this would be hard to scale up to effectiveness but now it looks to me that the promise of hydrogen will only be realized in places and by the wealthy few and lucky few well placed.
Davy on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 8:18 am
I know y’all don’t read my word salad essays but I’m going to keep writing them anyways. I have nothing better to do with my life then hang out on this obscure board every waking hour of every day.
I’m lonely, bored, and terribly miserable. I hate my life!
Davy on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 8:22 am
AntiUS is my only best friend in the hole wide world.
Antius on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 8:25 am
“As a reminder, we are talking prices for 1 kg renewable hydrogen for 5 euro. 1 kg hydrogen is 33 kWh 1 kWh in a Chevvy Bolt is 8 km So 260 km for 5 euro.”
In terms of the cost of hydrogen, Cloggie’s estimate may not be too unrealistic for the situation ten years hence. 1kg of H2, liquid or otherwise, contains some 142MJ, or 39.44kWh.
Let us assume that liquefaction and transport, increases the cost of hydrogen by 50% over what I calculated i.e. from 10.68 to 16 Euro-cent per kWh. With 39.44kWh per kg LH2, the cost of bulk delivery would be 6.31 Euro per kg. That ignores local distribution costs between the port and refuelling stations. It also ignores tax, which is about half to three-quarters the cost of road fuel in Europe.
PEM fuel cells have efficiency of about 50%. If we could fit a PEM to a Tesla 3 (which requires about 1/7th kWh per km) then 1kg of hydrogen would take it 138km, assuming no boil off losses at any point. That is about 4.6 Euro-cent per km.
In the UK, fuel tax accounts for about 2/3rds the cost of a litre of diesel, which will set you back about 1.5 Euro and will take a 60mpg car some 13km. So fuel tax costs a car some 0.075Euro per km (versus 0.0375 Euro per km for energy cost alone). When the cost of local distribution and taxation are accounted for, the ‘fuel cost’ of hydrogen car will be somewhat more expensive than a diesel car, but is unlikely to stretch to twice as much. The hydrogen-electric car fitted with a PEM will have higher capital cost. But it will produce much less pollution.
JuanP identity theft on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 8:32 am
Davy on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 8:18 am
Davy on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 8:22 am
Antius on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 8:42 am
“I suspect you next part might concern the scale up cost to civilization. LOL. We are talking huge cost alone to plant solar and wind gathering devices, adapt the grid, and harness storage strategies. We then need vehicle stock and homes retrofitted. We need to do all this while the global economy is in decline and decay within a planet in general decline and localized failure. We need to do this in times of social, economic, and military conflict. We need this during a time of a social narrative of relativity and drift with people being dumbed down by the digital age, poor diet and lack of physical activity. IOW, in the best of times this would be hard to scale up to effectiveness but now it looks to me that the promise of hydrogen will only be realized in places and by the wealthy few and lucky few well placed.”
Davy, there are indeed numerous obstacles.
The capital cost requirements for building the necessary infrastructure will be huge. The biggest near term road block to completing a renewable-hydrogen infrastructure will be the much lower cost of LNG in a deflationary world economy.
My guess is that imported liquid hydrogen will be used for large scale power production in combined cycle gas turbines, much as LNG is today. LNG has not caught on as a bulk vehicle fuel, although it is both cheaper and much easier to handle and distribute than liquid hydrogen. Why would we expect hydrogen to be used in this way when LNG is not? There are solid oxide fuel cells that burn methane quite efficiently.
For bulk applications like power production, the question for a European operator will be: why use more expensive liquid hydrogen, when I could use cheaper LNG? For a power plant operator, fuel cost subtracts directly from their bottom line.
Cloggie on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 8:44 am
Will be addressing Antius’ remarks after work.
Cloggie on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 11:26 am
After the Technical University of Eindhoven and technological certification institute TNO did so earlier, now a third major Dutch technological institute, the TU Delft, is taking the new sodium borohydride-based hydrogen storage system very serious:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/01/29/clipper-stad-amsterdam-hydrogen-powertrain/
Here a simulation study with a design of a fuel cell-based power train for the glamorous passenger sailing vessel and ocean cruising ship Stad Amsterdam (in case the wind doesn’t blow).
The study is interesting because it elaborates on the new hydrogen storage system.
Duncan Idaho on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 11:48 am
A strong people do not need a government
— Emiliano Zapata
Antius on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 1:05 pm
I bet I know exactly where all of that ‘renewable’ hydrogen will end up being used and I bet the greens won’t like it. Here is a map showing the world’s coal deposits.
https://tinyurl.com/y8nk5gpx
Most of this coal is stranded – it is too far from any port and is generally too expensive to mine and transport to any market.
Wouldn’t it be cool if there was some way of converting that coal into a dense liquid, that can be piped at atmospheric pressure through mild steel pipes, doesn’t boil until 65C, stays liquid down to -97C and can be pumped directly onto a tanker. Oh wait…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methanol
The molecular mass of methanol is 32. The average molecular mass of coal is about 13 (C1H1). So one kg of hydrogen and 4.33 kg of coal will produce 10.7kg of methanol.
Given that methanol is a room temperature storable fuel that is steel compatible, I would suggest that this is a far more appealing route for most investors than liquid hydrogen, which is a deep cryogen. Unfortunately, it doesn’t help the climate change issue very much.
Duncan Idaho on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 1:24 pm
A Prayer for the Traveler
by Edward Abbey
May your trails be crooked, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view. May your mountains rise into & above the clouds. May your rivers flow without end, meandering through pastoral valleys tinkling with bells, past temples & castles & poets towers into a dark primeval forest where tigers belch & monkeys howl, through miasmal & mysterious swamps & down into a desert of red rock, blue mesas, domes & pinnacles & grottos of endless stone, & down again into a deep vast ancient unknown chasm where bars of sunlight blaze on profiled cliffs, where deer walk across the white sand beaches, where storms come & go as lightning clangs upon the high crags, where something more beautiful & more full of wonder than your deepest dreams waits for you — beyond that next turning of the canyon walls.
Cloggie on Tue, 29th Jan 2019 3:08 pm
My guess is that imported liquid hydrogen will be used for large scale power production in combined cycle gas turbines, much as LNG is today. LNG has not caught on as a bulk vehicle fuel, although it is both cheaper and much easier to handle and distribute than liquid hydrogen. Why would we expect hydrogen to be used in this way when LNG is not?
Because of climate change and Paris Accords (rule the US out).
You are still talking about liquid hydrogen. Have you missed my post where we now have methods to store hydrogen in powder at twice the density of 700 bar:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/01/27/nabh4-the-vice-admiral-has-a-message-for-dutch-parliament/
3. Stack efficiency. This includes losses to things like pumps, heaters and water purification, so it is a whole system, rather than simple cell efficiency. For AEC: 50-75%; for PEMEC: 50-78%. Pumping losses and thermal losses will all be minimised in systems scaled to hundreds of MW, so I will assume efficiency of 70% in a large scale, well optimised system.
4. Stack capacity factor. This depends heavily upon the assumptions made for the driving power source. An electrolysis plant using solar power in the desert will be in darkness ~50% of the time and illumination will follow a sinusoidal pattern between sunrise and sunset
Efficiency and capacity factor are important, but not nearly as important as price.
Here a 5 year old EU report regarding the state of the art of electrolysis:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/01/29/state-of-electrolysis-in-europe-2014/
Scroll down for figure 7, price expectation hydrogen 2030: ca. 3 euro per kg (Germany). Africa and Arabia can be expected to produce at even lower cost because of solar conditions.
Figure 4: cost electrolysis hardware in 2030: 500 euro per kW. Smeared out over life cycle that means electrolysis cost of 0.5 cent per kWh, that’s nothing.
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/01/12/hydrogen-from-electrolysis-now-cost-competitive/
Antius on Wed, 30th Jan 2019 12:32 am
Big trouble in (not so little) China.
https://tinyurl.com/yd7nqsr5
The economic news coming out of China is increasingly gloomy. There are clear signs that the ponzi scheme is coming undone. Maybe they won’t need those exploding drill tips after all.