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Page added on August 24, 2012
Iranian Oil Production Falls Further
We have data through July from OPEC secondary sources and through June for most other sources. The result looks as above (graph not zero-scaled to better show changes). Iranian production has been falling noticeably for a number of months and is now down by about a sixth of the pre-sanctions level. This ignores the possibility that Iraq is helping Iran to smuggle oil.
So the sanctions are definitely biting – revenue will likely have dropped much more than production (since only a fraction of production is exported and prices paid will have dropped as Iran’s few remaining customers use their leverage to extract price concessions). Still, the Iranian response has been to double down on nuclear enrichment. So sanctions are not, thus far, achieving the desired end goal.
5 Comments on "Iranian Oil Production Falls Further"
BillT on Fri, 24th Aug 2012 2:48 pm
What the Empire does not seem to consider is that this is ancient Persia, not a 3rd world country. This is a strong country with allies like China and Russia, not stand alone Afghanistan.
They will not give up, but pushed into a corner, may come out fighting and surprise the West by handing it a fast defeat. This small country can block 20+% of the world’s oil supply long enough to bring the West to its’ bankrupt knees. Be careful what you wish for…
Plantagenet on Fri, 24th Aug 2012 4:40 pm
Obama chickened out and allowed China and India to continue to import Iranian oil without imposing sanctions on their banks—-thats why Iranian exports are down by such a small amount. Include smuggling through Irag, and Iran oil exports may be hardly down at all.
MarkR on Fri, 24th Aug 2012 5:24 pm
Jimmy Carter allowed the worst thing to happen to the U.S. since probably WWII.
He should have stopped the Iranian revolution dead in its tracks when he had the chance.
I am old enough to remember the outright humiliation of America when the revolutionaries took the embassy hostage(I was about 9 years old then). I remember thinking then that if we need to institute a regime change a regime anywhere, Iran is the one that is most deserving. Most of my elementary school contemporaries agreed with me.
Since then the Iranian regime has been nothing but a thorn in the side of the U.S. And now they might be the cause of our downfall too. All thanks to our weak foreign policy in the late 1970’s.
I don’t know why certain people seem to cheer the perspective downfall of the West. I don’t care much for many of the elites either. But since I live in the west, it means I have to deal with the consequences if the defeat of the west came about.
At the very least it means economic ruin, crime, violence, possibly starvation, all not fun. At worst it means being badly burned and getting radiation sickness-not fun either.
dsula on Fri, 24th Aug 2012 6:15 pm
I paid so much tax money for all those atom-bombs. Why are we never use them? We could easily clean the ME empty.
Poordogabone on Fri, 24th Aug 2012 8:53 pm
The Iranian revolution was the consequence of US and UK meddling with Iranian’s internal affairs like removing a democratically elected president and putting a puppet instead. What seemed like a good idea at the time to preserve the west oil interest proved to be short sighted and full of adverse consequences.
“He should have stopped the Iranian revolution dead in its tracks when he had the chance”.
Fixing a problem with the same mentality that created it is a recipe for failure.