How Ukraine Crisis Threatens Natural Gas, Oil

11 Comments on "How Ukraine Crisis Threatens Natural Gas, Oil"

Arthur on Mon, 3rd Mar 2014 1:07 pm 



Like was the case with Iraq/2003, for Europe zero interests are at stake. There is no crisis. Ukraine is Russia’s backyard, Russia can do as it sees fit. John Kerry, Victoria Nuland, Bloomberg: back off. Go play empire somewhere else.

Merkel initiated a ‘contact group’ with Putin, good idea. Merkel must have a private session with Wlad and hammer out a solution to the crisis. Crimea goes back to Russia if a referendum outcome says so (as it will), what happens to the rest is a matter of ‘Ukrainians’ alone. Perhaps confederation, split up, whatever. In case of split up: city-by-city referendum must decide the details. Could still be very messy in some cases, which probably will lead to civil war. Best is to avoid a split-up altogether and give high grade autonomy instead. If necessary pacification by joint European-Russian intervention force. Ukrainian army basically does not exist and personnel is split in the middle. Fortunately new pipelines Viborg-Germany are now in place, bypassing Poland and Ukraine, guaranteeing uninterrupted delivery to Europe. But… the EU cannot afford to antagonize Russia, so it won’t.

http://www.geenstijl.nl/archives/images/gazpromgroot.html

These EU politician trouble maker fools that showed up at Maidan are very quiet now. In the Netherlands there is general consensus that Putin is doing nothing wrong and that western politicians screwed up big time. Let Germany and Russia solve it between themselves.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Mon, 3rd Mar 2014 2:26 pm 



Good description of a complex situation Arthur. It is a difficult situation for the West and Russia. If the west thinks it can wipe away 2 hundred years of Russian involvement in this region it is in denial. A region where Russia has a huge military commitment and ethnic population. A region that was Russians until the distorting map drawing was done by the former Soviet Union based on political desire and not reality on the ground. Russia can do as it pleases here but at a cost and a cost to a country already faced with multiple difficult issues. It may end up with a large region it will need to support with an already stretched budget. It is not like Europe is not up to its armpits in alligators. Both sides need a small “save face” and a resolution to this problem. The best thing the US can do is layoff and stay away. It is ridiculous to think the US can do anything but complicate the issues. The US has no significant place in this issues other than trying to mitigate something that could blow up in the global economic systems face. What may happen is the usual bluster and game playing. The situation will become less important with the next problem that shows its ugly head. Russia will have its protectorate but at a price. The west and most notably Europe will go back to cooperating with Russia because they have to. Russia needs the west just as much because trade and finance are a two way street. The pipeline systems have been modified helping this situation significantly but not enough. We have to recognize the systematic risk here to the global economy if very bad choices are made. It will just be another nail in the coffin initiating a harder landing if bad choices are made here.

Arthur on Mon, 3rd Mar 2014 2:34 pm 



The Netherlands traditionally is very pro-American. The most pro-American Dutch opinion magazine is the liberal-right Elsevier. Even here Kerry is mocked for his denouncing Russia for ‘invading another country’. ‘That’s so 19th century’.lol In view of invading Afghanistan and Iraq on false pretexts, his hypocrisy is breathtaking.

http://www.elsevier.nl/Buitenland/nieuws/2014/3/Kerry-uitgelachen-om-uitspraken-over-imperialisme-Rusland-1473420W/

All posters are behind Russia and China. and get a lot of kudo’s for it. There is no way Kerry (Kohn)/Nuland can kick-off WW3 in Europe, no matter how much they try. Instead run the risk of being told to withdraw their troops from Europe. High-time about that anyway.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Mon, 3rd Mar 2014 3:17 pm 



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-03/russian-stocks-crash-central-bank-scrambles-hikes-rates-most-1998-default

“Russian Stocks Crash As Central Bank Scrambles, Hikes Rates Most Since 1998 Default”

Russian cost will multiply!!

Arthur on Mon, 3rd Mar 2014 4:25 pm 



Ukraine is for 100% dependent on Russian gas. Nobody can replace that supply. And even if they could, how to get it at it’s destination… the entire Ukrainian coast is ‘Russian’. And then there are Russian marine harbors Sevastopol and Sotchi.

Meanwhile thousands of soldiers are defecting to the Russian side. Planes and they entire Ukrainian navy already defected.

Maybe Poland can be persuaded to a ‘reunification’ with the western part of the Ukraine:

http://www.euratlas.net/history/europe/1400/index.html

Russian cost will multiply!!

And the gains.

Odessa used to be the city where 50% of the Soviet citizens would prefer to live, just like 50% of the Germans would like to live in Munich.

Nony on Mon, 3rd Mar 2014 5:56 pm 



The more we can import gas and increase oil production (thus lowering our net imports), the more it impacts Russian gas and world oil prices.

Ukraine should just divert whatever gas they feel like from the Russian pipeline going from Russia to Europe. Just like the US doesn’t have to have Keystone, there is no reason the Ukraine has to allow Russian gas to pass through their country. Although more and more it sounds like the Europeans are happy to facilitate Russian absorption of the Ukraine…in which case the Ukrainians really are fucked.

Nony on Mon, 3rd Mar 2014 5:59 pm 



The Ukraine coast is not “Russian”. Just the Crimea is. That is some BS coming out that east Ukraine prefers Russia. Russia is importing troublemakers into the country and trying to drive Western media views. If you hold a plebiscite, only Crimea would vote to move to Russia.

The Russian stocks are dropping because the obvious next step is for further nationalization of the USSR, oops Russian petroleum industry. Putin has been getting his hands more and more on that and the end game is obvious. Shareholders, foreign partners, etc. will take a loss.

Nony on Mon, 3rd Mar 2014 5:59 pm 



I mean export gas.

Arthur on Mon, 3rd Mar 2014 6:54 pm 



The Ukraine coast is not “Russian”. Just the Crimea is.

Nony, why not have a look at this map:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Ethnolingusitic_map_of_ukraine.png

The Ukrainian coast is not, well ‘Ukrainian’.

Ukraine should just divert whatever gas they feel like from the Russian pipeline going from Russia to Europe.

If Western Ukraine does that, and it has in the passt, Russia will simply stop pumping and Europe will be very p***** off.

All the gas & oil Russia does not sell now, can be sold later against higher prices, as any peak-oil adherent can understand.

Just like the US doesn’t have to have Keystone, there is no reason the Ukraine has to allow Russian gas to pass through their country.

Ukraine receives transit fees for allowing pipelines on it’s territory. It is like Egypt and the Suez canal. Sure they can close it down, but the income will stop with it.

If you hold a plebiscite, only Crimea would vote to move to Russia.

Really? Please explain why Yanukovich got 48% of the votes during the last elections, before he was illegally ousted by foreign funded rent-a-ultra-nationalist mob from Lvov?

The money, industry and relative wealth is in the east. The potholes are in the west and the EU, already suffering from low prestige after the Greek tragedy, now scored another loser to feed.

Nony on Mon, 3rd Mar 2014 7:05 pm 



Language is not the same as natural sympathy. You are buying into a meme that is incorrect and that makes you feel better about letting the Russians invade a neighbor.

Arthur on Mon, 3rd Mar 2014 11:48 pm 



The Crimea is full of Russians.

In Iraq there are no Americans.

That’s the difference.