Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on December 10, 2014
Exxon forecasts abundance of oil, gas
North America, once a sponge that sucked in a significant portion of the world’s oil, will instead be supplying the world with oil and other liquid hydrocarbons by the end of this decade, according to ExxonMobil‘s annual long-term energy forecast.
And the “almost unspeakable” amount of natural gas found in recent years in the U.S. and elsewhere in North America will be enough to make the region one of the world’s biggest exporters of that fuel by 2025, even as domestic demand for it increases, according to Bill Colton, Exxon’s chief strategist.
“The world has such an improved outlook for supplies,” Colton said in an interview. “Peak oil theorists have been run out of town by American ingenuity.”
In a forecast that might make economists happy but environmentalists fret, Exxon’s two chief products, oil and natural gas, will be abundant and affordable enough to meet the rising demand for energy in the developing world as the global middle class swells to 5 billion from 2 billion and buys energy-hungry conveniences such as cars and air conditioners.
This is a result of advances in drilling technology that have made it possible for engineers to reach oil and gas in unconventional rock and extreme locations and quieted talk that the world was quickly running out of oil.
And it is despite what Exxon assumes will be increasingly strict policies around the world on emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases emitted by fossil fuel use that scientists say are triggering dangerous changes to the world’s climate.
Exxon’s outlook forecasts world energy supply and demand through 2040 and is updated every year. It is noted by investors and policymakers and used by Exxon to shape its long-term strategy. Colton said the recent sharp decline in oil prices does not have much effect on the company’s long-term vision, and that the company expects prices to rise and fall, sometimes dramatically, throughout the period.
Exxon’s vision is broadly similar to that of other forecasters, including those by the International Energy Agency, which released its most recent long-term forecast last month.
9 Comments on "Exxon forecasts abundance of oil, gas"
rockman on Wed, 10th Dec 2014 11:42 am
“North America…will instead be supplying the world with oil and other liquid hydrocarbons by the end of this decade, according to ExxonMobil‘s annual long-term energy forecast.”
Heck…we already are. Currently the US supplies the rest of the world with about 1 BILLION bbls of “oil and other liquid hydrocarbons” per year right now. Granted not as much oil exported as the 3 million bbls/day of liquid hydrocarbons produced in our refiners and exported overseas. Of course that’s not a net volume exported since we still import more oil and other liquid hydrocarbons then we export. They just said we would be “supplying” such commodities to the world…as we have been for about a century.
“…North America will be…region one of the world’s biggest exporters of that fuel by 2025, even as domestic demand for it increases”. Notice the selective use of North America and not the US. Currently NA exports 134 billion cu meters with US accounting for about 1/3 of that volume. And today NA ranks as the second largest export of NG with Russia holding the #1 spot Russia – 196 billion cu meters…NA – 134 billion cu meters. So NA today is “one of the world’s biggest exporters of that fuel” so they aren’t exactly climbing out on a limb with that prediction. LOL.
“Exxon’s vision is broadly similar to that of other forecasters, including those by the International Energy Agency”. Heck, why not – not a lot of risk in making such forecast for the vast majority of the forecasters: the vast majority will be dead when it comes time to explain should their forecast be full of sh*t. Hell, I’ll forecast that the price of oil in 2040 will be $13/bbl and will pay everyone here $1,000 if I’m wrong.
Good luck collecting from a geologist that has acheived room temperature. LOL.
JuanP on Wed, 10th Dec 2014 11:50 am
Phew! When I think how stupid I was to worry about Peak Oil! Am I glad that is over. I will worry about pollution from now on until further notice. I just need something to worry about to be happy. 😉
Northwest Resident on Wed, 10th Dec 2014 12:00 pm
NWR forecasts abundance of bullshit, hot air
Now there’s a forecast you can bank on!
Plantagenet on Wed, 10th Dec 2014 12:31 pm
Rockman—I don’t like the sound of that “geologist who has achieved room temperature”
You doing OK? Take care of yourself—we need you here.
Lawfish on Wed, 10th Dec 2014 2:28 pm
I think Rockman is suffering from the terminal disease called life. He only has 25 years to live!
nemteck on Wed, 10th Dec 2014 4:43 pm
Tillerson CEO of Exxon said he was comfortable with Exxon’s exposure to the shale oil and gas sector. “We are a big investor in shale in the United States, and we have been expanding our title in the space.” Exxon is so big that they can absorb the losses that will occur in short time.
Davy on Wed, 10th Dec 2014 5:57 pm
Easy to talk like a bad ass when you are too big too fail and you know or suspect the feds got’s your back.
Northwest Resident on Wed, 10th Dec 2014 6:25 pm
If Tillerson said it, you can bet it is true. Or not.
Speculawyer on Wed, 10th Dec 2014 8:52 pm
Oil companies are not too big to fail. There is no way they will be bailed out. When everyone else was struggling, they made billions. They had HUGE profits what the makers of the devices that use their product (the automakers) went bankrupt. And they make a product that pollutes. If they go bankrupt, that is the way it goes. Plenty of new capital will be available if the business becomes profitable again so there will be no reason for the government to help them.