Peak Oil is You
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Page added on November 16, 2012
Even Hubbert Was Wrong
The founding myth of “peak oil” has always been Hubbert’s 1956 prediction that US oil production would peak in the early 1970s and decline, never to rise again. This myth is being disproved as we speak. Thanks to technological breakthroughs, US oil production is rising again:
The trend is set to continue. From yesterday’s Los Angeles Times:
By 2015, U.S. oil production is expected to rise to 10 million barrels per day and increase to 11.1 million barrels per day by 2020, overtaking second-place Russia and front-runner Saudi Arabia, according to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook. The U.S. will export more oil than it brings into the country in 2030, the report said. Link
In other words, even the great Hubbert is set to be embarrassed in the next few years. Don’t buy into the hype folks. Peak oilers have an incredible knack for getting things wrong.
17 Comments on "Even Hubbert Was Wrong"
anthony mccarthy on Fri, 16th Nov 2012 2:21 am
Ha Ha Ha
MrEnergyCzar on Fri, 16th Nov 2012 2:53 am
We’re at 6.3 mb/day, we won’t make it back to 10 mb/day unless we claim Canada as another state…
MrEnergyCzar
DMyers on Fri, 16th Nov 2012 3:13 am
Debunked again. A quote from the LA Times. It’s gotta be true! Oil production is expected to rise, folks, to whatever fantasy number they choose to plug in. By 2030, we’ll be looking good, that is, as good as smoldering ruins can look, while they’re exporting oil to other smoldering ruins.
Science sans conscience on Fri, 16th Nov 2012 3:42 am
Just a look at the graph shows that there was already a small and comparable spike between 1980 and 1988.
You can even expect another spike in 15 years with arctic oil, but the trend still definitely goes downward.
On the other hand, this certainly demonstrates that peak oil is not a perfect bell curve, yet it does not invalidate it.
Plantagenet on Fri, 16th Nov 2012 4:05 am
Its a bit premature for the dope at “peak oil debunked” to be crowing about a new peak in US production. Perhaps he didn’t notice that oil production in the USA stopped growing in 2012?
Science sans conscience on Fri, 16th Nov 2012 4:15 am
Moreover, when I look carefully at the graph, I see that, between 2012 and 2015, the production needs to skyrocket in a very short time in order to reach the 1971 level. The line has to become nearly vertical!
So I have serious doubts because even if there is the potential inside the ground for that production, it does not exactly take that way.
BillT on Fri, 16th Nov 2012 10:16 am
Perhaps Hubbard was not aware of the role that the economy would play in oil production? Or maybe he believed the American Banking Dream could go on forever?
Either way, expensive oil will cut use and demand will fall, reducing prices to the point where many fields will be shut down as not profitable. Or a world war will do the same by a different means. So, who wins?
vipp on Fri, 16th Nov 2012 10:44 am
Does this graph have wrong numbers?
It shows the peak in the 70-ties at 300 thousand barrels. Or is it 300 million?
I don’t get it.
Gale Whitaker on Fri, 16th Nov 2012 3:30 pm
Once in the past I asked Ron White (the LA Times Reporter) about Peak Oil and he said “Peak Oil was nonsense, there is plenty oil”. Ron is right about that but his comment just shows that even very smart people have trouble thinking about future events. There is a bright spot on the horizon. The Prius is the best selling car in California. These Prius buyers are not thinking about Peak Oil but at least they have the good sense to drive an economical car.
Newfie on Fri, 16th Nov 2012 4:15 pm
Uh… The tight shale oil is also a finite resource. So it will also peak and decline. It’s just a matter of time. Even if tight oil production makes the USA self-sufficient at some point in time, it won’t last. The tight oil will be depleted just as surely as conventional oil is currently being depleted.
Never ending growth is a fairy tale. And this fairy tale is the central myth of the modern era. But someday everyone will wake up as the fairy tale comes to a Malthusian end.
DC on Fri, 16th Nov 2012 5:08 pm
Im sorry to bring it to your attention Gale, but the ‘Prius’ is not a ‘bright’ anything. Just a marginally more ‘efficient’ gas-burner. Made from oil, and travelling on oil-soaked roadways. Hybrids will never have anything more than a cosmetic effect on the timing of PO. Whatever minuscule savings these few gas-powered greenwash-mobiles deliver, will be lost in statistical noise.The only people that wont thinking about PO, are those served by efficient mass-transit, or cyclists. That bright spot on the horizon, is actually just a trick of light. Its smog from all those ‘hybrids’.
Sorry
shortonoil on Fri, 16th Nov 2012 5:18 pm
“Once in the past I asked Ron White (the LA Times Reporter) about Peak Oil and he said “Peak Oil was nonsense, there is plenty oil”.
This is a good example of the technically challenged in the media; they can’t tell the difference between a BTU and a barrel! Ignorance is bliss – until it isn’t!
actioncjackson on Fri, 16th Nov 2012 6:03 pm
A perfect example of what happens when people are forced to face a difficult phenomena, first comes denial, and there’s a lot of that left to come. The path to maturity is painful, requires a constant questioning of beliefs, and recognition of fear, among other things. Many prefer to remain children their entire lives.
rollin on Fri, 16th Nov 2012 7:30 pm
This reads like a marketing blurb. Can’t read the graphs, no real facts and should not be taken seriously.
It also sounds like this “writer” has no real concept of what Hubbert did or how it applies to the real world.
oilforbreakfast on Fri, 16th Nov 2012 8:56 pm
WOW! The USA is currently producing 200 million barrels of oil a day! 2 and a half times world consumption! Or perhaps this graph is a big mistakd? How can we trust the rest of what this writer says?
GregT on Fri, 16th Nov 2012 10:45 pm
I believe Hubbert was speaking of the peak of conventional oil, not kerogen, bitumen, natural gas, or ethanol. The US peaked in conventional oil production in the seventies, and the world peaked in or around 2005.
Idiots spreading misinformation like this are doing a great disservice to society. We need to start planning for the end of oil now. Our future as a species depends upon it.
SOS on Sat, 17th Nov 2012 11:45 pm
You have to remember that US oil production is reising even during a period of repression by the federal government. If the Feds would get on board we could be extracting far more oil at lower costs than we are now. The fed actions to deter oil production are haveing a tremendously negative affect but new discoveries are so great supplies are still rising in the USA.