EIA’s World Oil Exports

Jeffery Brown is our Export Land expert and I would never try to match wits with him on world exports. And congratulations to Jeffery for having the Number one post on Resilience.Org. Top 10 Reader’s Favorites – Resilience and Energy Bulletin

All I can do is post the data the EIA, or someone else supplies. And the EIA only has world export data through 2010. But I found even that pretty startling, especially the Non-OPEC data. Anyway here is the World Crude + Condensate exports, 1986 through 2010 in thousand barrels per day.

Notice how the increase in World exports go up almost linear. Actually between 1986 and 2010 the increase averaged 3.41 percent per year for 18 years. But for the last seven years world exports have declined by an average of .19 percent per year.

OPEC had a very similar increase but their exports did not peak until 2006. Their decline was quite steep in 2009 after the crash. But in 2010 they increased exports but still not to the level of 2006.

But look what happened to Non-OPEC exports.

Up like an arrow at 3.5 percent per year then a decline just as fast. They increased Exports slightly in 2009 but unlike OPEC, Non-OPEC exports declined again in 2010. Peak Non-OPEC exports were in 2004, not 2005 or 2006 as one would expect.

I wish we had the data for the last three years, including this year.

Rune Likvern has an excellent post on Tight Oil on his FRACTIONAL FLOW Blog. It includes the chart below. Check it out at: Tight Oil and Oil Sand Versus Small Deep Water Developments, Some Observations

I hope to have the EIA data with the August production numbers in a few days. They seem to get further behind every month. That report should have been here last week.

5 Comments on "EIA’s World Oil Exports"

rollin on Wed, 4th Dec 2013 3:48 am 



Nice presentation but no analysis as to why there is less export? This is a multivariate situation that could be caused by higher internal production in importing nations, efficiency gains, lower demand, substitution, greater internal use by exporters, etc.

rockman on Wed, 4th Dec 2013 2:59 pm 



rollin – All good points. And I’ll add the one unmentioned hitch: regardless of how much oil is exported a key question becomes who will be receiving those exports. Assume all the factors you mention combine to make exports flat for the next 30 years. But in 20 years how much of that non-declining export number will other countries continue to receive if China and India continue their rising consumption levels?

The primary concern for the US isn’t how much oil is being exported but how much we are able to import and at what price. That directly impacts our economy…not how much oil the world is producing or how much the exporters are sending out of their countries.

rollin on Wed, 4th Dec 2013 4:29 pm 



Yes Rockman, imports at today’s high prices are impacting the economy. Best to find ways around petro fueled transport as the future is by no means guaranteed and oil wars are expensive and fruitless (as well as highly immoral).
The sooner we can move on the better.

mo on Wed, 4th Dec 2013 11:15 pm 



It seems to me that society’s, nations will not change their ways unless they are absolutley forced to, so I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting to move on. I know that seems negative, but if you look back on history, that’s the way its always seemed to be. Sometimes society’s do nothing and go over the edge or collapse, no matter how complex they are even if they have more knowledge than all the generations before them combined. We are still all human and susceptible to the same mistakes made before.

GregT on Thu, 5th Dec 2013 4:04 am 



mo,

Not negative, but realistic. Being optimistic that somehow human nature will be different THIS time, is bordering on insanity.