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Page added on November 17, 2017
Can Russia Break Its Oil Dependence?
Despite improving oil prices, Russia’s economic growth is slowing, with GDP rise for the third quarter at 1.8 percent on an annual basis, versus 2.5 percent for the second quarter, Russia’s state statistical bureau, Rosstat, said earlier this week. Analysts say it’s the latest indication that Russia’s economy needs major reforms.
Let’s state the obvious: Russia needs an economy overhaul that will reduce the contribution of oil to its budget revenues. This overhaul is something that the central bank governor Elvira Nabiulina put a price tag on last year, warning that without it, GDP won’t be able to grow at a rate of more than two percent even if oil prices jump to $100 a barrel.
There is ongoing work on that overhaul, but it needs to speed up. Even so, analysts have points to make regarding that Q3 figure, and these notes aren’t about oil. For starters, Capital Economics says the reason for the GDP growth deceleration was a slowdown in the growth of the industrial production sector. Then, Goldman Sachs pointed out that when adjusted for calendar differences, the Q3 GDP increase was actually 2.4 percent on the year.
Now, some would say that for a country that only came out of a fairly serious recession late last year, Russia isn’t doing too poorly. It’s certainly not as dependent on oil revenues as some observers would like to believe. In fact, Russia is becoming the dominant force on another commodity market: wheat. Agriculture as a sector is a top priority for the Kremlin, especially in the aftermath of European sanctions that Russia responded to in-kind, banning a lot of food imports from the EU.
Diversification is good, but Russia’s current economic growth isn’t a result of diversification of revenue streams, but of greater consumer spending—and this consumer spending, analyst Leonid Bershidsky says, is built on borrowing.
Russia has seen an increase in real wages for more than a year now. This year, the central bank reduced interest rates as the economy got back on a growth track. Consumers are more confident. This has prompted consumers to borrow more, Bershidsky explains. They borrow more to spend more, on everything from food to real estate.
This state of affairs is actually sustainable, analysts note, but it doesn’t make for growth acceleration. Higher oil prices aren’t helping, either. It’s the same as with Saudi Arabia and all the other large producers: the higher the price of oil, the greater the temptation to slip back into the rut you’ve known for decades.
Can Russia resist the temptation? It’s hard to say, but it certainly has a strong motivation to do just that. Not just because of Nabiulina’s warnings, but because the fruits of diversification are evident: this year, Russia became the world’s largest wheat exporter. Perhaps too much of a focus on commodities is unhealthy for the long run, but on the other hand, if you’re rich in commodities why not put them to the best use you can?
126 Comments on "Can Russia Break Its Oil Dependence?"
makati1 on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 7:51 pm
Duncan, you could provide hundreds of facts to support your references, but the deniers would shoot the messenger. I gave up trying to educate the uneducatable.
Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 7:56 pm
“China vows to boost ties with Saudi Arabia amid growing turmoil in Middle East”
The petro dollar is fine mad kat. The real issues will be watching China juggle its friendship with Iran and KSA. Sooner or later all these friends in a world of many enemies is going to backfire. The Chinese are new to geopolitical games. They will likely get an education soon.
Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 7:58 pm
“Duncan, you could provide hundreds of facts to support your references, but the deniers would shoot the messenger.”
Mad kat has a new friend. Mad kat Idaho is 70 so you two have some things in common. You can talk about your ailments and how long you plan to live.
MASTERMIND on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 8:03 pm
Madkat spreading fake news once again. cnsnews..LOL geez are you dumb..Your age really shows..
GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 8:07 pm
“WE are a people and you are a nobody. LOL.”
THEY do not give a shit about YOU.
YOU are a nobody. Zip, nada, nothing, zero., zilch.
YOU are not of any importance at all, to THEM.
THEY do not even care whether YOU live or die.
fmr-paultard on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 8:08 pm
aswang aka mad katie. it’s obvious u’re switching things up. when supertard and I served you up a cold dish on ZH you try mercola and now cnsnews
aswang, your city could be taken over by mere 100 isis fighters. watch out!
Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 8:23 pm
Widdle, you are a lost pathetic nobody that wants others to feel like you. I am fine in my skin unlike you. We the people dumbass anti-American. Lol
GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 8:26 pm
“Mad kat Idaho is 70 so you two have some things in common.”
They are both your elders, and have more experience and wisdom than you do.
They command your respect. Mommy and Daddy must have had big problems with
the delusionalist, and he has obviously still not grown up. Spoiled brat.
GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 8:28 pm
“We the people dumbass anti-American. Lol”
Unless you have a multiple personality disorder, on top of all your other major issues, you would be an I. Not a we.
Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 8:33 pm
Widdle, I think you and idaho will hit it off. Both of you are anti-American and have psychological issues you project on others.
GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 8:41 pm
“Widdle, I think you and idaho will hit it off.”
From what he’s said so far, he sounds like a reasonable, considerate, intelligent man.
You do not. You sound like a spoiled little brat, with huge emotional and psychological issues.
Davy on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 8:50 pm
Lol, widdle, are you having a rough night. Have I been getting under your skin? Widdle, when is the last time you contributed content? That is the problem for you and could this be the reason for your anger issues. You are devoid of a message. All there is within you is the pricking impulse becuase of your self respect issues. How can you show others respect when you don’t respect yourself? You crave respect but you don’t even respect yourself. SAD
makati1 on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 8:52 pm
Greg, do they allow inmates of the asylum, like Davy and MM to use the internet? You keep reminding the Missouri Mule that he has problems, but it is not getting past the denial filter. That is why I gave up. He is not worth the time or effort.
There are a few older, open minded, educated, intelligent commenters here whom I can debate with, You are one of them. There are others that may have the years but not the intelligence/maturity/open-mindedness to even consider their viewpoint. I guess it is a sign of the times. Sigh…
MASTERMIND on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 8:53 pm
Madkat China doesn’t even allow Facebook,twitter, or youtube. And you think they will save you post collapse? LOL I dont know if you are deluded or just naive? Take your pick
Boat on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:16 pm
You type here in the land of the free. You just can’t get that everywhere. Cheeto like mal take full advantage, if you don’t like the news, type some shyt up.
makati1 on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:22 pm
Muddymind, you will not have either after the crash. What good is internet access if everything is censored and nothing real gets through? The US gulag is fast approaching that point. Very fast.
I do not expect China to do anything for me after. Why should I? I have prepped for that event. No help needed. The Ps will survive better than the Empire, I am sure of that. So will I. I am also certain of that.
YOU are the one who will not fare well. Why? Because you seem to deny that the US is a 3rd world country. A fact that is about to become obvious to even the stupidest, in deepest denial, American. The signs are all there. I am just waiting for the dawn to arrive when it will be obvious to everyone. That day is not far off.
Boat on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:27 pm
mak, funny how you use US sources to tell us all about our problems but swear American sources are all propaganda. Them Jews got you coming and going.
makati1 on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:32 pm
Why not Boat? You don’t believe anything but American propaganda. Even US ‘news’ has some truth, if you can sort it out with an open mind. Most Americans cannot. They have only the brainwashed one they have grown up with.
Boat on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:37 pm
mak, You ever eat at all those fine restaurants in the US? You need some of your perspective inclinations checked out. It ain’t third world. Is AC third world? AC smooth riding cars with great music from excellent speakers? I put up beams in all my houses so I can cook and keep up with sports. Is your third world like that? You know a 40″ tv goes for $125 now, go third world in every room for almost no money now.
makati1 on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:38 pm
Child brides only in Africa? NOPE!
“Between 2000 and 2015, at least 207,468 minors were married in the United States.
As Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes, despite an overall fall in child marriage since 2000 (25,583 to 9,247), there are still a shocking number of young children legally married in the country. Only 14 percent married other minors, meaning 86 percent wedded an adult.”
“In 26 states, there is no minimum age for marriage.”
https://www.statista.com/chart/11848/americas-youngest-child-brides-grooms/
Third World America! LMAO
GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:40 pm
“Cheeto like mal take full advantage, if you don’t like the news, type some shyt up.”
Words to live one’s life by. Thanks for that profound thought Boat.
Boat on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:41 pm
Those bride and grooms German? Jews wouldn’t do that.
GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:43 pm
“You ever eat at all those fine restaurants in the US? You need some of your perspective inclinations checked out. It ain’t third world. Is AC third world? AC smooth riding cars with great music from excellent speakers? I put up beams in all my houses so I can cook and keep up with sports. Is your third world like that? You know a 40″ tv goes for $125 now, go third world in every room for almost no money now.”
Boat,
Are you by any chance a crack addict?
GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:45 pm
“Those bride and grooms German? Jews wouldn’t do that.”
Earth to Kevin, WTF…..over?
makati1 on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:46 pm
DEBT Boat. DEBT! Crumbling roads, bridges, water lines, gas lines, sewer lines, oil pipeline leaks, an 1800s rail system, an antique electric grid, poverty growing like weeds in a field, half the population receiving some form of welfare, a declining life expectancy, growing unemployment, polluted rivers and lakes, chemical poisoning everywhere, and on and on.
I could list hundreds of refs, but it would be a waste of my time. If you have been paying attention, you would already know, All of these have been in the news in the last year. The US is dying. It is in the ICU on Fed life support, and the plug is about to be pulled. Be patient.
makati1 on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:51 pm
More American Censorship coming…
https://consortiumnews.com/2017/11/14/americas-righteous-russia-gate-censorship/
The American gulag is growing…
GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:52 pm
You missed one of the more obvious signs Makati1.
Mental health issues…….
Boat on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 9:53 pm
I have chosen Germans as the counter for the Jew hate. Just for fun. I am sure most of both ethnic groups are fine folks, but somebody has to cheer for the underdog and counter hate with just as silly banter. I know you won’t understand.
Boat on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 10:02 pm
mal, Here in Houston we have a web site for pot holes. Look it up. It shows the percentage of repairs on day 1,2 and three. The interstates and main roads I travel have few problems.
GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 10:04 pm
“I have chosen Germans as the counter for the Jew hate. Just for fun.”
Do you have the slightest idea as to what it is that you’re babbling on about? Because as per usual, you aren’t making any sense.
MASTERMIND on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 10:08 pm
Madkat
You don’t understand how collapse will happen. When the oil shortage comes everyone in this whole wide world will panic. And chaos will spread world wide. And the stock market will crash. Along with world governments. Then you will be all on your own.
makati1 on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 10:17 pm
MM, the temporary oil shortage will not come until AFTER the financial collapse. YOU don’t see how it will happen because you are blind to anything you don’t want to see. Then there will be a reset.
The US collapse is actually in progress and gaining speed. The US is in act three of a three act play. The crash in the market will be the final curtain when the fat lady sings. Then there will be plenty of oil for those who can afford it. Not many in the US, unfortunately.
GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 10:20 pm
“When the oil shortage comes everyone in this whole wide world will panic.”
Except for the people who already do not have access to oil. For them, things will be no different.
For the rest of us, our lives will become like theirs.
GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 10:26 pm
MM,
Interesting chart at the top of your link.
Do you honestly believe that global societal wellbeing is more than twice as good now, than it was in the 1960s?
makati1 on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 10:29 pm
Greg, yes, your observation is spot on. I try to tell a few here that many millions will not notice the end of oil. They do not use it. The farm has neighbors that don’t own cars, motorbikes, or even have electric or running water. THEY will never miss oil. At less than a pint per person per day average, the Ps will be able to afford even $100+ oil for its needs.
Yes a few hundred thousand car owners will bitch, but if they can afford a car here, they can afford $10 gas. (It is always around $4 to $5 here) And few Filipinos actually NEED a car to get around. The commercial vehicles (buses, trains, taxis, jeepneys, etc.) move millions everyday. Most are company cars for the company’s convenience or for clients. Cannot say that about most Americans.
GregT on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 10:36 pm
“Here in Houston we have a web site for pot holes.”
Difficult not to be impressed by that Kevin. Any other major technological, societal advances in Houston that you care to pass along?
makati1 on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 10:39 pm
Signs of growing insanity:
“Between the pending robot apocalypse that I wrote about earlier this week and forcible microchipping, it seems like we won’t have to wait for “climate change” or a war of Mutually Assured Destruction to get us. Technology just might be the end of humanity.”
http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/people-microchipped-11172017
”
Initially, it would be the sheep who blindly desire to be chipped for their own “convenience” leading the way.
Then, it would become remarkably inconvenient not to be chipped – sort of like it’s nearly impossible to not have a bank account these days.
Then, the last holdouts could be forcibly chipped by law.’
We deserve extinction.
antaris on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 11:02 pm
Boat, I’m pretty sure you have never Sean a real pot hole because freezing doesn’t happen in Houston.
Sink holes maybe.
antaris on Fri, 17th Nov 2017 11:11 pm
It is almost the 10 year anniversary of the Great Recession. In December 2007 my fax stopped faxing, phones didn’t ring and the email went on holiday.
Shit happens and fast. When this happens again I’d bet
It goes quicker.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 12:08 am
Madkat
Goes off the freaking rails again posting fake news about micro chipping everyone…What a paranoid loon…LOL
And Greg to answer your question. yes I believe it has thanks to technology. We have free porn now, free movies, free tv shows on the youtube etc. We have the internet with almost unlimited amount of knowledge..’Not that madkat would know how to find it though” lol
MASTERMIND on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 12:24 am
7.5 Billion People Are Sleepwalking Into a Great Malthusian Nightmare (Trap)
https://imgur.com/a/NPqEc
Makati1 on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 1:19 am
“Ouch! Germany (#1) replaces U.S. (#6) as country with best global image”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/11/16/germany-replaces-united-states-country-best-global-image/870250001/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatoday-newstopstories
“Foreigners’ views of the US worsened considerably compared to 2016, particularly in the category “governance,” where it slipped from spot 19 to spot 23.”
Slip slidin’ away…
GregT on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 1:25 am
“And Greg to answer your question. yes I believe it has thanks to technology. We have free porn now, free movies, free tv shows on the youtube etc. ”
I’m guessing that you are being facetious?
Makati1 on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 1:41 am
“This is how the U.S. has become a Medicaid nation” (USA Today)
“Today, Medicaid is the nation’s largest health insurance program, covering 74 million, or more than one in five Americans. About 25% of Americans will be on Medicaid at some point over the course of the year — many are just a pink slip away from being eligible. …
With increasing enrollments and health costs steadily rising, the cost of Medicaid has soared. Federal and state governments spent about $575 billion combined last year, nearly triple the level of 2000.”
That is about the same amount paid out for Social security in 2016. Which will be cut first? lol
MASTERMIND on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 1:48 am
Greg
The chart is on scale of a global level. So yes from that perspective things are much better then the past. I am assuming you are an old bitter boomer so you don’t think so. but it has .
Makati1 on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 1:51 am
American vulnerability:
“In Just 5 Days Without Trucks, Chaos Would Erupt in America”
“Think about it:
No toilet paper.
No laundry detergent.
No fresh fruits and vegetables.
No fresh milk.
No garbage trucks picking up waste and no way to get to the dump.
The banks would close.
No parts would be available for things that need repair.
We couldn’t refill prescription medications.
No gasoline would be available.
It’s that easy for all hell to break loose. Five days without the regular delivery of supplies and our country could devolve into chaos. And if it was longer than 5 days without trucks, the initial panic would be a G-rated movie compared to what would come next.”
http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/5-days-without-trucks-11082017
My farm neighbors wouldn’t even notice. Nor would I when I live there.
GregT on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 2:08 am
“The chart is on scale of a global level. So yes from that perspective things are much better then the past. I am assuming you are an old bitter boomer so you don’t think so. but it has .”
Been there done that, but there’s no point in trying to explain something to somebody who knows better, that has little to no experience. If you have the wherewithal, as you mature, you’ll figure things out for yourself, if not, you never will. Most won’t. Not that it really matters in the long run anyhow, we all die in the end. Much sooner than we like to pretend. If you are indeed as young as you make yourself out to be, you have far more serious issues in your future. Most of which being the consequences of human technology, none of which will ever be solved by the same.
Cloggie on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 2:18 am
“Here in Houston we have a web site for pot holes.”
Difficult not to be impressed by that Kevin. Any other major technological, societal advances in Houston that you care to pass along?
Do you additionally have the resources to actually fix them or are you still saving money to deal with the damage of the last hurricane, a direct consequence of not having dikes and drainage system in place, like normal countries?
Or is Washington forcing you to put all your resources in “defense”, to keep the exceptionalist dream of global empire alive, a dream that is never going to be fulfilled?
GregT on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 2:35 am
“a direct consequence of not having dikes and drainage system in place, like normal countries?”
WADR Cloggie,
What do you consider normal about building cities in flood plains, in the middles of deserts, or on major fault lines?
I somewhat get the engineering holier than thou attitude, (god syndrome) but wouldn’t it make a whole lot more sense to not need to
engineer yourself out of a self inflicted bad choice of physical locations in the first place? Reminds me of trying to maintain
BAU, when BAU is the reason for all of problems that you need to engineer yourself out of to begin with.
Why not just make intelligent choices in the first place? Or would that be a career limiting move for the engineers? Job security?
Makati1 on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 2:57 am
An Americans wonder why their country is no longer respected…
“U.S. Navy crew grounded after pilot draws penis in the sky”
https://ph.yahoo.com/news/u-navy-crew-grounded-pilot-draws-penis-sky-000313829.html
The Navy is having real problems these days. And they actually believe they can win a real war. LMAO