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BIG TROUBLE BREWING AT THE BAKKEN: Rapid Rise In Water Production Signals Red Flag Warning

BIG TROUBLE BREWING AT THE BAKKEN: Rapid Rise In Water Production Signals Red Flag Warning thumbnail

Big trouble is brewing in the mighty North Dakota Bakken Oil Field.  While oil production in the Bakken has reversed since it bottomed in 2016 and increased over the past few years, so has the amount of by-product wastewater.  Now, it’s not an issue if water production increases along with oil.  However, it’s a serious RED FLAG if by-product wastewater rises a great deal more than oil.

And… unfortunately, that is exactly what has taken place in the Bakken over the past two years.  In the oil industry, they call it, the rising “Water Cut.”  Furthermore, the rapid increase in the amount of water to oil from a well or field suggests that peak production is at hand.  So, now the shale companies will have an up-hill battle to try to increase or hold production flat as the water cut rises.

According to the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, the Bakken produced 201 million barrels of oil in the first six months of 2018.  However, it also produced a stunning 268 million barrels of wastewater:

Thus, the companies producing shale oil in the Bakken had to dispose of 268 million barrels of by-product wastewater in just the first half of the year.  I have spoken to a few people in the industry, and the estimate is that it cost approximately $4 a barrel to gather, transport and dispose of this wastewater.  Which means, the shale companies will have to pay an estimated $2.2 billion just to get rid of their wastewater this year.

Now, some companies may be recycling their wastewater, but this isn’t free.  Actually, I have seen estimates that it cost more money to recycle wastewater than it does to simply dispose of it.  So, as the volume of wastewater increases while the percentage of oil production declines, then the shale companies are hit with a double-whammy… less oil revenue and rising wastewater disposal costs.

To give you an idea just how much more water is being produced versus oil in the Bakken, I went back to the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources and looked at their data back to 2015.  Unfortunately, the data published in excel only goes back to 2015, even though they have figures published in PDF form starting in 2003.

Regardless, four years is plenty of time to show just how bad the situation is becoming in the Bakken.  In June 2015, the North Dakota Bakken produced 16% more water than oil.  However June this year, the Bakken field produced 38% more water than oil:

You will notice that overall oil and water production declined in 2016, due to the falling oil price, but as production grew in 2017 and 2018, the percentage increase of by-product wastewater surged to 32% and 38% respectively.  Here is an interesting comparison:

Bakken Oil & Water Production:

June 2015 Oil = 34.4 million barrels

June 2015 Water = 39.8 million barrels (16% more water)

June 2018 Oil = 33.8 million barrels

June 2018 Water = 46.8 million barrels (38% more water)

As we can see, while overall Bakken oil production in June 2018 was less than it was in June 2015, the volume of waster water increased by an additional 7 million barrels.

I believe there are two negative forces at work in the Bakken as it pertains to the rising volume of wastewater.

  1. As the wells and field age, more water is produced than oil
  2. Larger Frac Stages, which require more water and sand, are now being utilized to keep production growing or to keep it from falling

While a rising water cut isn’t a surprise to the industry as it is a natural progression of an aging oil well or field, the use of Larger Frac Stage wells should be a WAKE-UP CALL to investors.  Why?  Because Larger Frac Stage wells consume a great deal more water and sand to produce more oil initially, but the decline rates are even more severe than regular shale wells.

So, when the Investor Relations are bragging how the companies are using newer technology of more complex Large Frac Stage wells, this isn’t a good sign.  This means that the company is now desperate to try and grow production, or at worst, to keep it from falling.

Unfortunately, the U.S. Shale Industry is in serious trouble.  Most of the shale fields have reached a peak and when production starts to decline, especially during a collapsing oil price, I forecast a rapid disintegration of the industry.  We must remember, as the oil price and oil production falls, then company stock and asset values will plummet while the high debt levels remain.  Thus, the shale industry will have increasing difficulty in servicing its debt.

I will continue to monitor the production of oil and wastewater in the Bakken.  Please check back for updates.

SRSROCCO



65 Comments on "BIG TROUBLE BREWING AT THE BAKKEN: Rapid Rise In Water Production Signals Red Flag Warning"

  1. Cloggie on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 7:46 am 

    The world is much, much bigger than North-Dakota.

  2. Dredd on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 7:46 am 

    It is to be expected.

  3. Mister French on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 7:49 am 

    Not to worry, the ROCKMAN will explain it all away…as he usually does…make it all appear good…Elon Musk should hire ROCKMAN as His Public Relations Rep,

  4. Sissyfuss on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 8:11 am 

    Mister French, why are squatting on Shortends front yard?

  5. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 8:17 am 

    Shale has likely peaked and that means we are at global peak oil now..Buckle up children as we go down the hubbert curve!

    Next stop, a great Malthusian Nightmare (Trap)

  6. Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 8:29 am 

    “suggests that peak production is at hand. So, now the shale companies will have an up-hill battle to try to increase or hold production flat as the water cut rises.”
    I have been here for years and we have heard this same talk about the Bakken that long. I believe it is coming too but I will wait for an expert in the industry to comment. There are so many anti-oil and oil industry people here that have looked like fools for a few years now wrtining the Bakken off, me being one of them. I am much more reserved about my opinion on oil these days because of that wrong thinking. I bought into the peakers and bergman type early on. Personally I think shale is a retirement party but we have been proven wrong time and time again on the fracking industry. We will be right one of these days

    To get a glimpse of who is promoting these story check the bellow out. Clearly this guy is a peaker and a gold proponent. Generally these people are pushing the collapse idea to sell and promote gold process.
    “Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) steve-125x157Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, the majority of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI – Energy Returned On Invested – stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy. Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy research. For the past several years, he has written scholarly articles in some of the top precious metals and financial websites. You can find many of Steve’s articles on noteworthy sites, such as GoldSeek-SilverSeek, Market Oracle, Financial Sense, GoldSilver.com, SilverDoctors, TFMetals Report, Outsiderclub, SGTreport, BrotherJohnF, Hartgeld, Der-klare-blick, PeakProsperity, SilverStrategies, DollarCollapse, FurtureMoneyTrends, Sharpspixley, FinancialSurvivalNetwork, Pmbull, Deviantinvestor, PmBug, Wealthwire, and ZeroHedge.”

  7. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 8:48 am 

    Davy

    Stop trying to shoot the messenger..Arguments are based on their merits..and you are the one pushing zerohedge articles all the damn time..

  8. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 8:49 am 

    Global warming policy: Is population left out in the cold? (Bongaarts 2018) Science

    https://www.scribd.com/document/386526685/Global-warming-policy-Is-population-left-out-in-the-cold-Bongaarts-2018-Science

  9. George Straight on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 9:28 am 

    Nope, Mister French and Shortend are on the 18th hole playing a round of golf together.
    Sissypuss.

  10. Free Speech Message Board on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 9:44 am 

    One of the reasons the US is collapsing now is that Americans think that decay will be stopped by becoming Fascists and Communists.

    Americans think the US will be improved by expanding wars, increasing the debt, and adding more tyranny when the reason the USA is crashing is because the US has wars, is in debt, and has a police state.

    Americans say that they love freedom, but then they turn around and say they need the government to give them free Obamacare, build a wall, protect the US from Yemen, wiretap their phones, arrest people for feeding the homeless, stop farmers from plowing fields, force people to get rid of dogs, ban vaping, and torture suspects.

    Every country has the government it deserves.

  11. fmr-paultard on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 10:22 am 

    ok ok clearly this guy may as well be a former paultrad with an obsession with gold. what troubling is the tards coming out of the woodwork telling me i shouldn’t listen to supertards. wow these tards are getting desperate, sad!

  12. print baby print on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 10:34 am 

    print few bilions and water disposal problem solved hahahhahha

  13. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 10:37 am 

    Putin was dancing at a wedding..

    Just wait till the deep state sodomizes him with a blade like Galdaphi and takes his oil..

    He won’t be dancing no more!

    LMFAO!

  14. deadly on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 10:41 am 

    Build a water pipeline to the ocean and dump the waste water there, ship it to China, they’ll make money from the waste water, or evaporate the water, collect the evaporate, bottle it, Bakken Water Products. Collect the residual salt, market the salt as fossil Bakken salt, people will buy salt from the Bakken.

    The fossil water dollar can be made along with oil dollars. Water is worth money, can’t say that it ain’t.

    Always a silver lining behind the dark cloud.

    More than one way to skin a cat.

  15. CAM on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 11:08 am 

    The sad truth: Wast water is never “disposed of”, it is just moved from one place to another.

  16. Cloggie on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 11:11 am 

    Putin was dancing at a wedding..
    Just wait till the deep state sodomizes him with a blade like Galdaphi and takes his oil..
    He won’t be dancing no more!

    Shall we have your war on Iran first please and bring the US into war with entire Eurasia, when oil stops flowing from the Gulf to Europe and China and everybody gets really pissed-off with the obese yaping dog?

    We’ll see who gets sodomized by whom later, shall we?

    https://goo.gl/images/5Rg3s7

    We have one century worth of scores to settle, bring it on, you pos, just give us the excuse to tear you apart. Russia and China are now on Europe’s side. Let WW3 begin.

    #LastDayOfEmpire

  17. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 11:31 am 

    Clogg

    Global debt is over 240 trillion dollars..it has quadrupled over the last fifteen years..ever since oil production peaked..And when the oil shortage hits it will be game over for the entire global economy. That is what th German military predicted, the limits to growth models at MIT, and Professor Douglas Reynolds a professor of oil and energy economics.. Those are three sources all independent of each other..

  18. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 11:34 am 

    Clogg

    there isn’t enough time and oil left to fight any more major wars.only enough time for another false flag to be blamed on russia and a nuclear strike.

    Its coming..The deep state rules this world you little bitch and dont you forget it..

    and then we take Putins oil and gas..

    LMFAO!

  19. Cloggie on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 11:34 am 

    Bulgaria just completed a pipeline to Turkey that could be connected to Turkstream and still realize 15 billion bcm or 1/3 of Nord Stream 2. Heck, they could still build South Stream instead of Turk Stream, as Bulgaria doesn’t shoot Russian jets from the sky.

    https://russia-insider.com/en/bulgaria-turned-down-sabotaged-south-stream-pipeline-now-hurriedly-laying-pipe-connect-turk-stream

    DAMN!

    Action underway to sbotage Brexit. British millionair remainer funding 2nd referendum to get Brexit stopped:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6075499/Multimillionaire-Superdry-founder-gives-1million-Peoples-Vote-campaign.html

    Ford-UK threatening to leave UK and set up shop in Europe in case of a hard Brexit. Claims to have 1 billion loss of revenue already:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-6074417/Fords-Brexit-warning-profits-slide-760m-Car-giant-scale-UK.html

    Expect most multinationals to do the same. Best solution for both EU and UK: Brexit, 39 billion and Norwegian template or face economic ruin and end up as empoverished sort of European Cuba and 51st US state and US garrison, filled with ever more coloreds after Trump when the deep state returns with a vengence and will finish off whitey once and for all in Anglosphere.

    McLaren also warning against hard BrexitL

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-6074273/Stop-accusing-car-firms-fuelling-Project-Fear-real-McLaren-boss-warns-Brexit.html

    Macron throwing his weight behind a campaign against a no-deal Brexit:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6074457/Macron-wades-Brexit-debate-backing-coalition-Remainer-MPs-plan-thwart-Corbyn.html

  20. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 11:49 am 

    Clogg

    Enough with the fake news spamming..Daily mail isn’t even allowed on Wikipedia..

    You are a low IQ moron…and you prove it everyday with the links you post..

  21. Cloggie on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 11:52 am 

    “Its coming..The deep state rules this world”

    Not since November 2016 anymore.LOL

    Haha, you card-carrying member of the smelling armpit society, the only war the US ever won on its own throughout the entire 20th century was against fokking Grenada.LOL And that was when the US army was still white and could read and write. Now it is a low quality mongrel third world “army”:

    https://goo.gl/images/dhqE72

    Give me a break. Russians, Chinese, Iranians and Turks will laugh there balls out of their trousers once confronted with the Lambarene Albert Schweitzer operette brigade.

  22. Anonymous on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 12:00 pm 

    Water cut going from 1.2:1 to 1.4:1 is not s big deal. And it is still very low compared to most fields.

    The Bakken was written off by peakers a couple years ago. Now it is up and at record levels. Why not write about that? If it were down an extra two hundred thousand instead of up that since 2016 I’m sure peakers would discuss the oil amount.

  23. Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 12:35 pm 

    Thanks Nony, I was waiting for a real comment on the subject.

  24. Cloggie on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 12:47 pm 

    4.5 trillion barrels left.
    Exxon says it.
    The IEA says it.

    https://reason.com/blog/2016/07/05/us-oil-reserves-bigger-than-saudi-arabia

    Technology is not just expanding our daily oil production; it also continues to increase the amount of oil and liquid fuels we can count on for the future.

    In 1981, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that remaining global recoverable crude and condensate resources were 1 trillion barrels; today, the IEA estimates that it is 4.5 trillion barrels – enough to meet global oil demand beyond the 21st century. By 2040, the amount of resources yet to be produced will still be far higher than total production prior to 2040, even with a 20 percent rise in global oil demand.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Exxons-Shocking-Supply-And-Demand-Predictions.html

    There is too much oil. The sport is to make the global population stop using it, or else the question is going to be:

    “how would you like your planet sir, medium or well done?”

  25. Boat on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 1:11 pm 

    Only greed, wars and rumers of wars make the price of fuel dance at the pump. If the planet was stable, oil would be like copper, tin or any other commodity.

  26. Boat on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 1:26 pm 

    The full-o-shyt meter is pegging out again. Ultimate recover per well has been on the upswing.

    Love the bigger fracks are used to keep production from dropping or grow production. No shyt captain obvious. PS. And to make more money.

    Probably another Russian poster or a foreigner. They can’t grasp oil.

  27. Boat on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 1:28 pm 

    Clog

    You a Russian spammer?

  28. Cloggie on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 2:06 pm 

    Me Europe firster.
    You Jane?

  29. Coffeeguyzz on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 2:14 pm 

    Dave/Nony

    As I mentioned over on the comment thread a few days back, virtually ALL the increase in produced water is from the severe choking back of the flowback process in the early months’ online.

    Whereas operators used to allow vast quantities of injected (frac) water to surface within days of completion, they now slowly allow both the hydrocarbons and injected water to come up.

    Two things are involved …
    The elevated pressure from the completion is boosting oil to the wellbore.
    And now the unrecorded flowback water is logged as ‘produced’.

    The previous 10,000 to 20,000 barrels of produced water over the first few months is now regularly 150,000/200,000.
    Reading any of the well profiles’ reports clearly shows this.

    Bruce Oksol’s site just had a few WPX wells’ profile containing over 150/220k produced water first 4 months along with astronomical (150+k) oil output.

    Historical Bakken water cut has not changed at all.

    Author of the above article continues to display the most grotesque ignorance of this industry, and feeds it to a receptive, unaware audience.

  30. rockman on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 2:20 pm 

    Dreed – “It is to be expected”. Exactly. For the benefit of Mr. French and others who are equally ignorant of STANDARD and expected oil field operations: this same phenomenon has happened in every newly developed trend of water drive oil reservoirs. Early on most of the wells produce no or very little water. But as a trend continues to be developed wells drilled early on begin producing more water. But new wells are producing more oil. But eventually the NUMBER of the older wells (with ever increasing water production) begin exceeding the number of new wells brought on line. And simple arithmetic explains why the total water production in the trend starts exceeding the total oil production. And this differential can show a very big jump should the number of new wells suddenly deceases significantly. As might happen if oil prices fall and activity decreases.

    Some folks so want to piss on the shale plays so bad they’ll take normal and EXPECTED statistics and foolishly run around like their hair is on fire claiming they discovered something new. There are a number of negative aspects to the shale plays: fools don’t need to pretend they’ve discovered a new one that folks actually knowledgeable of the petroleum business fully anticipated. One that has occurred in every water drive oil trend ever developed EVERWHERE ON THE PLANET.

    IOW where do these idiots think the huge of US stripper wells came from? For instance, the trend the Rockman drilled his new horizontal wells in produces with a 98% water. IOW for every 1,000 bbls of oil produced 49,000 bbls of water are produced. A much worse ratio then exists in the Bakken. And those wells are still economic to produce…otherwise they still wouldn’t be producing. Monies spent on water disposal is just the cost of doing business. And is anticipated in every water drive oil reservoir developed.

    Now notice how you’ll see no one refute anything I just said. And they can’t: the FACTS are on my side.

  31. deadly on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 2:23 pm 

    Bakken Production Chart

  32. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 2:31 pm 

    CLogg

    Reason.com is owned by the Koch brothers..And Exxon are lying and you can’t verify their claims..Oil has already gone scarce that is why the price is triple what the 20th century average was..

    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.03150.pdf
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/has-peak-oil-already-happened/
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421509001281
    https://www.scribd.com/document/375110698/The-end-of-Peak-Oil-Why-this-topic-is-still-relevant-despite-recent-denials-Chapman-2014
    https://www.scribd.com/document/375110317/Projection-of-World-Fossil-Fuels-by-Country-Mohr-2015
    http://www.energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf
    http://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017

  33. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 2:32 pm 

    clogg

    The End of the Oil Age is Imminent!

    Recently, the HSBC oil report stated that 80% of conventional oil fields were declining at a rate of 5-7% per year. This means that there will be an oil shortage of ~30 million barrels per day by 2030 and ~40 million barrels per day by 2040.
    http://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017

    What is mentioned far less often is that annual oil discoveries have lagged annual production since the 1980s.
    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt

    Now, this problem has nothing to do with the recent decline in the oil price, which started in 2014. This has been an on-going problem for the past 30 years. Now, the IEA is predicting oil shortages by ~2020 due to declining exploration.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Here, the IEA blames this problem on the low oil price. But, this problem started in the 1980s. The problem is geological: we are running out of conventional cheap oil. Shale and tar sands are not the answer, either. Those resources are far too expensive, compared to conventional oil, because the global economy is based on cheap conventional oil. Expensive oil is not a replacement for cheap oil.

    Based upon the HSBC report and the IEA, the End of Oil Age will start around ~2020: there will be a dramatic economic depression due to exhaustion of cheap oil. This will cause a global economic collapse.

  34. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 2:33 pm 

    ‘Peak Oil’ and the German Government

    Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis

    The team of authors, led by Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Will, uses sometimes-dramatic language to depict the consequences of an irreversible depletion of raw materials. It warns of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the “total collapse of the markets” and of serious political and economic crises.

    The study, whose authenticity was confirmed to SPIEGEL ONLINE by sources in government circles, was not meant for publication.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/peak-oil-and-the-german-government-military-study-warns-of-a-potentially-drastic-oil-crisis-a-715138.html

    Total collapse is coming!

  35. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 2:34 pm 

    The easy oil is gone

    Oil discoveries peaked in the 1960’s.

    Every year since 1984 oil consumption has exceeded oil discovery.

    In 2017 oil discoveries were about 7 billion barrels; consumption was about 35 billion barrels

    Of the world’s 20 largest oil fields, 18 were discovered 1917-1968; 2 in the 1970’s; 0 since.

    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt
    https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Oil-discoveries-in-2017-hit-all-time-low-12447212.php

  36. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 2:36 pm 

    Rockman

    You cited no evidence so nobody needs to refute something that hasn’t been proven..Show some proof or shut the hell up you low IQ conservative..And I don’t mean from the daily caller or daily mail you moron..And the fact that you have to shout in all capital letters proves you are a low brow moron..

  37. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 2:37 pm 

    The easy oil is gone
    Oil discoveries peaked in the 1960’s.
    Every year since 1984 oil consumption has exceeded oil discovery.
    In 2017 oil discoveries were about 7 billion barrels; consumption was about 35 billion barrels
    Of the world’s 20 largest oil fields, 18 were discovered 1917-1968; 2 in the 1970’s; 0 since.

    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt
    https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Oil-discoveries-in-2017-hit-all-time-low-12447212.php

  38. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 2:37 pm 

    Financial catastrophe resulting from resource depletion and a debasement of value of fiat currencies. Then a 12-month window of tyranny and government lockdown on citizens, followed by a 6-month window of absolute carnage and death. Then, a period of about 6 months of slow die-off and that’s pretty much that. Oh, and starting sometime within the next 5 years or so…

    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa
    https://imgur.com/a/rBtIrfg

  39. Davy on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 2:44 pm 

    Thanks for adding to nony’s comment coffee and rock. It amazes me how articles can butcher the truth.

  40. Cloggie on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 2:47 pm 

    “‘Peak Oil’ and the German Government
    Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis”

    That was 2010, you fathomless dummy. That was before fracking. Germans do not understand oil since they have none.

    This is 2018. Exxon, IEA all admit there are trillions of recoverable barrels left. This is the third carbon age, with technology the determining factor. The challenge is not to find new oil, the challenge is not to use it.

    There is not going to be a peak oil induced anarchy. Peak oil was yesterday. But no worries, you will have your social breakdown:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/08/the-battle-that-erupted-in-charlottesville-is-far-from-over/567167/

  41. george on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 2:59 pm 

    Is it too late to become a blacksmith ?

  42. The last drop on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 3:13 pm 

    Yep ROCKMAN, it’s expected for them shale plays to deplete…..rather fast…

  43. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 3:20 pm 

    Clogg

    IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows

    International Energy Agency says U.S. shale won’t fill the void which could lead to petroleum shortages

    LONDON—Global oil discoveries fell to a record low in 2016, the International Energy Agency says, raising fresh concerns about the potential for a petroleum-supply shortage as soon as 2020.

    Don’t expect output from U.S. shale producers to fill the void, the IEA said. American shale production is expected to grow by 2.3 million barrels a day or more over the next five years, but that isn’t enough to make up for declining output elsewhere.

    The IEA also doesn’t expect global oil demand to stop growing any time soon, potentially turning the current glut of oil into a dearth.

    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has also sounded the alarm over the potential for a looming supply gap in the long term. Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih told a London energy conference last year that “there will be a period of shortage of supply.”

    Shale “is not enough by itself,” the IEA’s Mr. Birol said.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html

    Peak oil is not a myth – The Royal Society of Chemistry

    Fracking won’t plug the gap in crude oil’s falling figures, says Chris Rhodes. Oil’s exhaustion is inevitable

    Current data for the decline in oil fields’ production indicates that around 3 million barrels per day of new production must be achieved year on year, simply to sustain supply levels. This is equivalent to finding another Saudi Arabia every 3–4 years. In this context, fracking is at best a stop-gap measure. Conventional oil production is predicted to drop by over 50% in the next two decades and tight oil is unlikely to replace more than 6%.

    Once conventional oil’s rate of loss exceeds unconventional oil’s rate of production, world production must peak. Production of sweet, light crude actually peaked in 2005 but this has been masked by the increase in unconventional oil production, and also by lumping together different kinds of material with oil and referring to the collective as ‘liquids’. (More recently, the term ‘liquids’ is often upgraded to ‘oil’, which is highly disinformative since the properties of the other liquids are quite different from crude oil.)

    Fracking produces mostly shale gas (rather than oil), and the major growth in global ‘oil’ production has been from natural gas liquids (NGL; in part from shale gas). But the principal components of NGL are ethane and propane, so it is not a simple substitute for petroleum.

    https://www.chemistryworld.com/opinion/peak-oil-is-not-a-myth/7102.article

  44. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 3:22 pm 

    Clogg

    Liebig’s Law states that any complex system dependent on several essential inputs can be taken down by that single factor..

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liebig%27s_law_of_the_minimum

    And that single factor will be a global oil shortage..Your miserable and pathetic life is coming to an end..

  45. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 3:25 pm 

    Limits to growth had 12 models. One of those models, the “standard run” or, alternatively, the “business as usual” model was the one that 30 years of historical data tracked/followed. And according to that model the global economy will collapse by 2030.

    Scientific American: Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/apocalypse-soon-has-civilization-passed-the-environmental-point-of-no-return/

    Peer Reviewed Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research Shows We’re Nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014)
    https://www.scribd.com/document/379418787/Is-Global-Collapse-Imminent-An-Updated-Comparison-of-The-Limits-to-Growth-with-Historical-Data-Turner-2014

    Looking Back on the Limits of Growth – Smithsonian
    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/looking-back-on-the-limits-of-growth-125269840/

    https://imgur.com/a/ZUUkN4c

  46. Boat on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 3:41 pm 

    Mm

    In spite of all your doomer links N America is net oil independent. I will drive for decades.

  47. Cloggie on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 3:43 pm 

    http://news.peak-oil.org/2017/04/oil-shortage-feared-by-2020-as-discoveries-fall-to-record-low/

    “The IEA—a Paris group that monitors energy trends for oil-dependent places like the U.S. and Europe—is stepping up its warnings about historically low oil-industry investment during the latest price downturn. Oil companies and producing nations curtailed spending by hundreds of billions of dollars during the price rout”

    The IEA is warning against record low investment, not against depletion. The industry had no incentive to invest at 60$ oil, at 100+ they will.

    When Exxon and IEA claim that there are trillions of recoverable oil, they say nothing about price levels, only that these barrels are physically there. They didn’t say they can be produced at 10$.

    A barrel of oil is 1600 kWh or 2000 mandays of hard physical labor. If there are no alternatives, oil will be bought at 300$. The realistic hope is that renewable energy will be cheaper per kWh than oil.

    There is enough oil left to build a renewable energy base. Hopefully, for the planet, oil prices will soon increase drastically.

  48. Cloggie on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 3:46 pm 

    “In spite of all your doomer links N America is net oil independent. I will drive for decades.”

    You will boat, you will.

    https://youtu.be/GpRqVMulqqA

  49. Boat on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 4:11 pm 

    Clog

    Rigs were being added at $40 oil. It’s now around $70. Oil is not an investment light switch. These periods are called cycles for a reason. Relax

  50. MASTERMIND on Sun, 19th Aug 2018 4:21 pm 

    CLogg

    No incentive to invest? The average oil price during the entire 20th century was 19 dollars. And oil consumption has exceeded oil discovery every years since 1984, even when oil was over 100 dollars a barrel..

    Source: Reuters

    https://imgur.com/a/7DSj6hA

    https://imgur.com/a/rBtIrfg

    An oil crisis may be brewing — and it’s not because of decreasing demand
    http://www.businessinsider.com/an-oil-crisis-may-be-brewing-and-not-because-of-decreasing-demand-2018-4

    HSBC Global Bank: 81% of world liquids production already in decline and world oil shortages ahead
    https://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017

    Projection of World Fossil Fuels by Country (Mohr, 2015)
    https://www.scribd.com/document/375110317/Projection-of-World-Fossil-Fuels-by-Country-Mohr-2015

    A Regional Oil Extraction and Consumption Model. (Dittmar 2017)
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.03150.pdf

    So yeah..

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