Bakken Update, Big Drop in December

North Dakota has published the latest production numbers.
ND Monthly Oil Production Statistics (All North Dakota)
ND Monthly Bakken* Oil Production Statistics (Bakken Only)

Bakken production fell 48,395 bp/d to 862,389 bp/d and all North Dakota production fell 53,226 bp/d to 923,227 bp/d. That was after Bakken November production had been revised up by 2,908 bp/d and North Dakota November production was revised up by 3,173 bp/d.

From the Director’s Cut

<i>The drilling rig count was up from Nov to Dec, but the number of well completions dropped from 138 to 119. Days from spud to initial production increased 18 days to 132. Investor confidence appears to be growing, but there is still some concerns about the uncertainty surrounding federal policies on taxation and hydraulic fracturing regulation, but the big story is the December weather. Low temperatures of 21 to 31 degrees below zero, 4 major snow events, and 5 major wind events. Dickinson had the 4th coldest December on record and from Williston to Bismarck it was the 9th snowiest December since 1890.</i>

The December decline in North Dakota production was the highest in the history of the state. Total North Dakota increased production in 2012 by 233,349 barrels per day. However the increase in 2013 was only 154,317 bp/d. Their production increase was 34 percent less in 2013 than it was in 2012.

Bakken barrels per day per well dropped by 8 from 134 to 126. That is the lowest number since May of 2011, when the surge in the rig count was just beginning.

The EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report came out a few days ago. Their Bakken figures look totally different from North Dakotas. The EIA had the Bakken up 247,717 barrels per day in 2012 and up 203,613 bp/d in 2013. There is a bit of apples vs. oranges here however. The ND figures are for all North Dakota while the EIA’s figures are for all the Bakken including Montana’s small share. But still the figures should be pretty close as the EIA has ND Bakken plus Montana Bakken while ND has ND Bakken plus ND non-Bakken.

They are miles apart however as the EIA had all Bakken production in December at 1,001,062 bp/d while ND had all North Dakota production at 862,389 bp/d.

The Data here is through March 2012. I believe the last six months here are just estimates. There is very little variation in the numbers. They have Eagle Ford increasing production by about 30,000 bp/d each month and the Bakken increasing by about 20,000 bp/d each month, but increasing their gain a little each month. They have the Bakken starting out increasing production by 17,500 bp/d in October 13 and rising to  22,650 bp/d in March. They have Eagle Ford having an increase of about 29,000 in October rising to just over 34,000 in March. They are just Guessing. They have the Bakken up over 20,000 bp/d in December while North Dakota had them down by about 50,000 kb/d.

But I think they have the decline rate pretty close. I calculated their decline rate for each month for both the Bakken and Eagle Ford, plotted below.

I posted this link in the comments of the last post but I want to make sure no one misses it.
‘Big oil’ getting smaller as production keeps falling

* Top seven western majors all seeing liquids output fall
* Supermajors’ share of global market dropping every year
* BP reports fastest decline of 30% from 2009-13
* Production becoming more evenly split between oil and gas

Combined output of crude and other liquids by the seven biggest western majors — ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Chevron, Total, ConocoPhillips and Eni — amounted to 9.517 million b/d last year, down 2.2% from 2012 and marking the fourth consecutive year of decline.

And This Steven Kopits video presentation is just over one hour long but worth every second of it:
Global Oil Market Forecasting: Main Approaches & Key Drivers

peak oil barrel

16 Comments on "Bakken Update, Big Drop in December"

dissident on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 5:59 pm 



Must be due to the weather.

J-Gav on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 6:31 pm 



Come on … won’t be long before they’re Bakken the saddle again, don’t you think? For a little while, that is.

MSN fanboy on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 7:39 pm 



LIES

Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 8:06 pm 



Well, OOOkay, again the weather , humm, and they think they are going to conquer the arctic like its a ski resort. We see Bakken weather troubles. Check out Prudhoe Bay, AK
8 Miles ENE Deadhorse Airport AK
This Afternoon Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near -27. Wind chill values as low as -60. Northeast wind around 15 mph.
Tonight Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around -38. Wind chill values as low as -70. Northeast wind 15 to 20 mph.

Meld on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 10:12 pm 



Here comes the pop pop pop…..any….minute……now

rockman on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 12:33 am 



MSN – Not necessarily. Maybe a bit overemphasis. There’s a well documented history of production slow downs this time of year. But not a perfect correlation by any means. And from what I’m told the spring thaw can create even greater transport problems.

But the day will come when the Bakken trend will die off. Has happened to every oil/NG trend in the history of the oil patch…no exceptions. Now when will it happen? As I’ve said before I’m really, really smart…especially about the oil biz. So I’m smart enough to know what I don’t know. And dang proud of it. LOL.

rollin on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 5:06 am 



That monthly decline rate graph tells the story. Keep drilling or the whole thing goes dead in three years.

One of the big factors in increase of barrels per day per well, is that there were a higher proportion of new wells. That seems to be flattening out in the Bakken.

I wonder how much money is being spent on producing this light oil.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 12:15 pm 



@rock – So I’m smart enough to know what I don’t know. And dang proud of it. LOL.

Yeap, rock probably an age thing the young don’t yet understand. I just wish my mind would quit feeling blank sometimes like where I left the keys. If you forget what keys are for that is when you better see the doctor…Ha

Nony on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 2:36 pm 



It’s a Just in Time activity. More like mining coal than drilling an offshore well. So what. Keep drilling.

Look at the chart…have been previous weather declines in winter.

It’s already done more than you TOD naysayers who thought it would peak at 150-225 (or 600 to 700). Everyone doomer sh#2 on that play before it did what it did.

rollin on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 7:02 pm 



Nony, in a way you are right it’s like coal mining. Without continuous effort the oil production will slow down quickly, unlike the way it used to be.

The difference is the amount of technology and capital needed to extend a coal mine shaft versus drilling new wells. Extracting oil from continuous fields is similar to having to drive a new mine shaft every few days. Much more expensive per the result.
Also it takes over a hundred years to play out a big coal field. The Bakken shale looks to play out within 20 years.

The big question is: Is there another shale layer deeper down that is worth going after. The Marcellus (natural gas play) is above the Utica shale, so potentially the gas play could be continued there once the Marcellus is played out. The geology determines the economics which determine the actual efficacy of obtaining the resource.

Nony on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 7:55 pm 



So it’s expensive. If the price drops then people will stop drilling. but so what…the price will be lower for consumers in that case anyhow!

And if price wants to rise, then tight oil “coal mining” can act as a swing producer to limit the price rises (the price will still suck, for consumers, but not as bad as without tight oil).

Nony on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 8:05 pm 



rollin: I don’t know if there are other shale plays. Would think they would have already taken off if they were going to…but then maybe these things take a while to figure out. Really, I don’t know.

I do think a general “drill, baby, drill” attitude would open something up somewhere. And by that, I mean:

*Drilling on Federal lands,
*Drilling in ANWAR
*Letting Shell drill off of Alaska without so much permit obstruction,
*Fracking in California (I do not support Federal action, just hope that state can be persuaded)
*Fracking in New York (I do not support Federal action, just hope that state can be persuaded)
*Opening up the 85% of the coastal shelf that is off limits (give the coastal states some kickback, split of the leases/royalties to overcome NIMBY…but even under current regs, some states like Virginia were pushing offshore and Obama stopped it.)
*Cooperating with the Canadians on infrastructure to help them develop their sands (Keystone, Alaska trains, etc.)
*Allowing crude exports (helps with price)
*Anything else I’m forgetting 🙂

Basically, I don’t know where it will come from…but I think opening up more possibilities would lead to more oil. Maybe if we do it enough than other countries join in. There have to be other productive shales in the rest of the world.

Nony on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 8:08 pm 



Oh and pre-emptive caveat:

I KNOW that tight oil can’t lead to nirvana of $30/bbl. I just think it can be very important at keeping 100+ from creeping up to 150+. And that is still worthwhile.

P.s. Shouldn’t have to make these pre-emptive caveats…should be obvious I already know this much. 😉

GregT on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 9:26 pm 



And that is still worthwhile.

There is nothing worthwhile about global mass extinction. At least not from a human perspective.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 10:41 pm 



@Nony – I agree the US shale oil production was beautiful timing for global supply. Rock made a good point that price produced in this case. The technology is not new. Price stability was a welcome outcome of this. On the drill baby drill leading to increased supply IMHO it may be too late. Our options are limited now that the financial system has been compromised by multiple distortions and manipulations. Energy is money and vise versa..

Robert Spoley on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 5:57 pm 



Alack and alas. It’s the Queen of Hearts in Alice Through the Looking Glass!.You have to run like crazy just to stay where you are. How long can you do that?