Peak Oil is You
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Page added on January 29, 2011
An Export Land Model Analysis for the USA-Part 1
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This is particularly important in the period after peak oil, when oil production begins to decline from the exporting countries and but the domestic consumption rate may still be increasing. The Export Land Model shows that the rate of decline in oil exports will be even faster than the decline in production if there is also increasing domestic consumption. For example, if the production rate was exponentially decreasing, and, the domestic consumption rate was exponentially increasing, then the export rate, represented by the difference of production minus consumption, would decline at a double exponential rate. In this kind of scenario, net exports hit zero long before production does. This has very serious implications for oil importing countries, like the USA. If the USA cannot produce or import the amount of oil it has in the past, then its consumption must go down.
3 Comments on "An Export Land Model Analysis for the USA-Part 1"
Kenz300 on Sun, 30th Jan 2011 1:38 am
When oil exporting nations need their oil for their own populations they will stop exporting oil.
This will leave the world with fewer oil exporting nations and concentrating the supply in the hands of a few countries.
We need to diversify our sources of energy and the types of energy we use.
Wind, solar, geothermal, wave energy and second generation biofuels all need to ramp up production.
Bring on the electric, flex-fuel and hybrid vehicles. Higher oil prices are coming. Will we be ready?
Our economic security and national security are at stake.
James A. Hellams on Sun, 30th Jan 2011 3:41 am
Bring on electrically powered trains!
Because all rail trackage in the US can be electrified; the railroad industry can do one thing that no other mode of transportation will ever be able to do.
With electric power being generated from every source of energy known to mankind; the railroads can run trains coast to coast NONSTOP, WITHOUT BURNING ONE DROP OF OIL FOR ENERGY!
crash_watcher on Tue, 8th Feb 2011 4:59 am
Kenz300:
“When oil exporting nations need their oil for their own populations they will stop exporting oil.
This will leave the world with fewer oil exporting nations and concentrating the supply in the hands of a few countries.”
Yes I agree, when there are no net-exporters is when things get very tough indeed, especially for countries that are almost totally dependent on imports and have no domestic production to fall back on (e.g., Japan). However, my belief is that many of the exporters, especially the developing countries, will have to continuing exporting somewhat, because they are so highly dependent on the foreign income.
I touch upon this very subject in part 3 http://crash-watcher.blogspot.com/2011/02/export-land-model-analysis-for-usa-part.html