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Page added on December 5, 2013
“Wildly optimistic” Monterey Shale estimates
By now, you’ve probably heard the proclamations: California is on the brink of a modern-day oil boom, and that the Monterey Shale formation, long a source of crude oil in Kern County could usher in another black gold rush.
Industry insiders and politicians, citing several recent studies, are literally gushing with optimism over the prospect of a protracted period of economic prosperity.
But those studies are now coming under scrutiny.
On Tuesday, a geoscientist from Canada released a report that concludes those rosey predictions are wildly optimistic..
Read the report Drilling California: A Reality Check on the Monterey Shale
Visit the website montereyoil.org.
5 Comments on "“Wildly optimistic” Monterey Shale estimates"
Arthur on Thu, 5th Dec 2013 2:40 pm
Upshot estimates Monterey Shale:
US-government: 15B
David Hughes: ca. 1B
My opinion: you can still produce a lot of wind turbines with 1B barrel of oil.
rockman on Thu, 5th Dec 2013 4:56 pm
I’ve never had a problem with exploration geologist being “wildly optimistic”. Difficult to get someone to spend $6 million drilling a well by telling them there’s a better than 50% chance they lose every penny of the money. OTOH the company looks at the upside…how many multiples of that $6 million they MIGHT make if they drill the well. A simple risk vs. reward analysis. Unfortunate the public doesn’t understand what ‘reserve targets” really represent…a possibility and not a probability. And when some folks try to qualify those numbers with some probability of success I think most become even more confused or, even worse, more confident in those numbers.
For those of us in the oil patch we can appreciate such estimates for what they are. But the other 99.9% of the population really can’t IMHO. And the hypsters know it and are willing to take advantage by misleading the public with “facts”.
Dave Thompson on Thu, 5th Dec 2013 4:59 pm
This is the corporate media looking for investment suckers. David Hughes will soon be ignored by the industry touting “energy independence, USA, USA”.
James A. Hellams on Fri, 6th Dec 2013 1:26 am
At 15.4 billion barrels of oil in the Monterey Formation, the US consumption of oil each year (8 billion barrels) would wipe out this field in 1.9 years.
The annual consumption of oil each year by the world (33 billion barrels), would wipe out the Monterey formation in 0.46 years!
So much, for the wild optimism about the Monterey Formation!
BillT on Fri, 6th Dec 2013 2:09 am
Go ahead! I always wanted to live long enough to see the San Andreas Fault move again. Fools!