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Page added on April 21, 2012
USGS: World Outside U.S. Holds 565 Billion Barrels of Oil
The world excluding the U.S. holds 565 billion barrels of undiscovered, conventional oil and 5,606 trillion cubic feet of natural-gas, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
These numbers represent technically recoverable resources, or quantities of oil and gas that can be produced using currently available technology and industry practices, regardless of accessibility or economic considerations, it said in a statement posted April 18 on its website.
The data includes the average estimate of resources in 171 geological provinces of the world, onshore and offshore, the USGS said in its first assessment since 2000. Almost three- quarters of the oil is in four regions: 126 billion barrels in South America and the Caribbean; 115 billion in sub-Saharan Africa; 111 billion in the Middle East and North Africa; and 61 billion in Arctic areas of North America, according to the statement.
The report doesn’t include undiscovered, conventional resources in the U.S., which the USGS estimates at 27 billion barrels of oil and 388 trillion cubic feet of gas on and offshore. There are an additional 81 billion barrels of oil and 398 trillion cubic feet of gas in the U.S. outer continental shelf, the statement said, citing the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management.
Unconventional oil and gas resources, such as shale gas, tight oil, tight gas, coal-bed gas, heavy oil and oil sands may be significant around the world though they aren’t included in the data, according to the statement.
14 Comments on "USGS: World Outside U.S. Holds 565 Billion Barrels of Oil"
Arthur on Sat, 21st Apr 2012 4:52 pm
“The world excluding the U.S. holds 565 billion barrels of undiscovered, conventional oil”
Huh? Is this not a typo? How do you know that there are 565 UNDISCOVERED barrels of oil?!
“regardless of accessibility or economic considerations”
In that case these figures mean nothing. The number of barrels of oil needed to extract these barrels should be subtracted from the 565 billion barrels.
James A. Hellams on Sat, 21st Apr 2012 5:31 pm
On the surface, this seems like a huge amount of oil; but, again, like so many who deny the truth about peak oil; and the desperate disaster we are headed for; they with hold the truth from the public by not telling you about the consumption side.
The annual worldwide consumption of oil is 30 to 32 billion barrels annually. At the the upper end of this consumption; the 565 billion barrels of oil cited in this article would last the world less than 18 YEARS! This ASSUMES that all the oil can be produced!
Rick on Sat, 21st Apr 2012 8:58 pm
So, if the numbers in the article are accurate, in short humans are screwed. But, most Peak Oil people know this.
Arthur and James are correct!
CAM on Sat, 21st Apr 2012 9:33 pm
Actually every figure given in this article is a guess, an assumption, a wish-full thinking. And, USGS assessments don’t exactly have a great track record (a best case, a worst case, so right in the middle must be correct! really?!. And, even if they are correct it does not bode well!
Plantagenet on Sat, 21st Apr 2012 11:34 pm
The USGS is a major federal scientific organization, staffed with Ph.d.s who have spent their entire lives studying oil geology. Their estimates definitely aren’t “guesses—they are the result of decades of careful scientific work and study.
The point to take away here isn’t that the USGS is “guessing”—-the point here is that even the most optimistic scientific estimate of the remaining oil in the ground shows that there isn’t enough of the stuff to keep our modern oil-fueled global economy going for more than a few decades.
Kenjamkov on Sun, 22nd Apr 2012 12:39 am
“regardless of accessibility or economic considerations”
$1000/barrel here we come!
Then it’ll last for a thousand years because only a few people will be able to afford it.
BillT on Sun, 22nd Apr 2012 12:56 am
565 billion barrels maybe available, minus 525 billion barrels needed to get it out of the ground and to the refinery, equals 40 billion barrels scattered over the next 20 years or what the Empire’s military uses now.
Dream on,deniers. The bad thing is that this article will be used by the non-thinking deniers to say that Peak Oil has not arrived and never will.
Rick on Sun, 22nd Apr 2012 1:31 am
BillT, you are also right. But, given the annual global consumption, even a Peak Oil person like myself, this is very bad news. I’m not surprised, but more amazed this article was written. Of course it will not become mainstream.
The sheep, here in the US, and worldwide don’t have a clue.
Personally, I think if you start preparing now, you’ll have about 20 years, to avoid any major issues associated with Peak Oil. Provided you are in shape, and willing to work the land.
But, you better be self-sufficient. Meaning, grow your food, your home is off the grid, super insulated, and passive solar. Just for starters.
I’m in the process, of doing just that.
MrEnergyCzar on Sun, 22nd Apr 2012 1:43 am
We’ve used a Trillion so this is very bad news considering it’s probably 10 miles below the ocean floor or under the Arctic..
MrEnergyCzar
Mike on Sun, 22nd Apr 2012 5:16 am
I dunno. This number doesn’t seem unreasonable given the caveats. While the Hubbert model might optimistically project another 200 B in discovery over the next 40 years, double that number considering technology’s impact on “discoverable/recoverable” is not far-fetched. Of course, much of it will be challenging to say the least.
It doesn’t even come close to negating a profile of diminishing discovery though. It just stretches it out a bit.
Arthur on Sun, 22nd Apr 2012 9:07 am
I am a little confused here… does the usgs say that on top of the 1 trillion of known reserves left, they expect that another 565 B barrel to be discovered based on geologicsl information?
The story I have in my head is that of the 2T barrel discovered, so far 1T has been consumed. That is the lowhanging fruit. So, does the usgs say that they expect that another 1.5T barrel are left for consumption, ignoring EROI issues?
DC on Sun, 22nd Apr 2012 9:52 am
Yes like James says , 18 years which he likely based on *current* consumption, which is what people commonly do. 32b a year, if that goes up even say a very modest 1.5% a year(average), that 32billion barrels a year would need to be 64billion barrels a year by 2058. At Or to think of it another way, in 2058, 565billion barrels would be gone in 8 years, late September(but only if growth platuead @ that 64b of course) In 18years at 1.5% wed be at 41.8b. I believe(hope I got my math right, wed actually run thro that 565b in about 14-15 years.
Only way I can see us haveing ‘hundreds of years of uninterupted driving 2 blocks to buy lottery tickets is if that 32b per year droped to, Oh, I dont know….3billion a year? Then yeah, I think we could do a century. Ok hands up, which 90% of you want to give up oil totally so 10% of us can keep motoring to Wall-mart, or Small-mart, w/e theyd be called?
Any volunteers?
hubbertsfreak on Sun, 22nd Apr 2012 2:12 pm
Personally, I find this article useless. If something is undiscovered, how can you put a number on it?
Lee on Sun, 22nd Apr 2012 8:07 pm
When I was at school, we were told bu our teacher that there were just over 40 years of oil left.
That was 1989.
We appear to be more or less on schedule.