Concerns about “peak oil” have recurred repeatedly since the resource was first developed, but they reached an unprecedented height in 2007 just prior to the global economic recession. Since then public concern has diminished, partly as a result of shale oil production in the United States. Yet, despite these developments and globally rising reserves, oil prices have almost doubled since 2010 and have tripled in a decade. The ‘peak oil’ debate has not gone away – oil remains critically important, adequate substitutes have yet to be found and concerns about depletion persist.

This volume presents the best scientific evidence on why a decline in oil supply may, or may not, be in sight. It considers the production and resources of conventional oil and the potential for developing alternative liquid fuels from tar sands, shales, biomass, coal and gas. It describes how economies might react and adapt to rising oil prices and how the transport sector could be transformed. It provides comprehensive and interdisciplinary perspective on the ‘peak oil’ debate and reflects a range of views. Ultimately, it reminds us that the wolf did eventually appear – and that it would be wise to prepare.

Read the introduction (free)

Video interview with editors Steven Sorrel and Richard Miller

11 Comments on "The future of oil supply"

BillT on Wed, 11th Dec 2013 3:02 pm 



I read the preface. Interesting, and maybe a good book for the newly interested in Peak Oil. But I will not buy it. It is likely to be dated before it hits the store shelves and only contain the same info I can get for free here on the internet.

Dave Thompson on Wed, 11th Dec 2013 3:38 pm 



“This volume presents the best scientific evidence on why a decline in oil supply may, or may not, be in sight.” The data is in Peak oil is now.

rockman on Wed, 11th Dec 2013 3:57 pm 



This little taste doesn’t inspire me to ready any further. “It describes how economies might react and adapt to rising oil prices and how the transport sector could be transformed.” How the “might react”??? I’m pretty sure we’ve been seeing that reaction since oil prices have already risen significantly. No reaction or any other global activity hinges on how much oil the world is producing (at record levels at the moment) but what energy is costing those economies. I agree with Bill except it sounds like it’s already rather dated…as if it were written in 2005.

And more to the point: “…public concern has diminished”. I’m sorry…is that some “public” that doesn’t exist in my world? My public is very concerned about the current high cost of fuel as well as our relatively poor economy and high unemployment. Maybe the cornucopians aren’t concerned but since they are unwilling to grasp the seriousness of our energy situation I don’t think I would hang my writings on their belief system.

Bob Inget on Wed, 11th Dec 2013 4:00 pm 



LONDON (REUTERS) –

BHP Billiton, the world’s largest miner and a top investor in U.S. oil and gas, said on Tuesday its U.S. shale business would break even from 2016, generating cash that would grow to almost $3 billion a year by the end of the decade.

Analysts have voiced concern over the growing proportion of BHP’s spending being allocated to petroleum, where volumes and returns have proven disappointing for now.

In a presentation to analysts in Houston, BHP said it was on track to hit its 2014 petroleum production target.

It said a spending programme of $4 billion per year would help it hit a goal of increasing liquids production from its shale business to 200,000 barrels per day in 2017. The company sees total onshore U.S. production of 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by the same date.

“Onshore U.S. is well positioned to become another major cash flow generator for BHP Billiton,” Tim Cutt, BHP’s head of petroleum and potash, told investors.

BHP, already a significant oil and gas player, moved heavily into U.S. shale in 2011, acquiring Fayetteville assets from U.S. energy group Chesapeake and months later Petrohawk Energy, spending almost $17 billion, just before a major downturn in U.S. natural gas prices.

BHP, which also faces cooling prices for its mined commodities, has since been trimming across its divisions to focus on its more profitable core operations. It confirmed in October it was scaling back in the Permian Basin to concentrate on acreage there that “holds the most interest”.

The group said in Tuesday’s presentation that it would continue to simplify its petroleum division, focusing future investment on Australia, the United States and, “potentially, Trinidad and Tobago”, where exploration has focused on deepwater acreage. BHP also has assets in Pakistan and Algeria, but said those assets had “limited running room” for future growth.

It sold its stake in Liverpool Bay, a major integrated development of five producing oil and gas fields off the British coast, in October 2013.

BHP has said it plans to spend the bulk of its U.S. onshore development budget this year on both Permian and Eagle Ford, another major basin, directing its investment to liquids-rich acreage at a time of low natural gas prices.

Bob Inget on Wed, 11th Dec 2013 4:12 pm 



Corporations certainly are NOT people.
People don’t live hundreds of years but get embarrassed when caught in a lie.

Corporations are like prions; While not living things themselves, they certainly can and do kill off enemies. One of the most predacious of all is BHP Billiton.

Today’s EIA repore was bullish if you are. Bearish if not;
http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

Bob Inget on Wed, 11th Dec 2013 4:24 pm 



IEA: Highlights of the latest OMR

dated: 11 December 2013

– Futures prices fell in early November but bounced back later and into December as refinery runs picked up. Oil markets took an interim deal on the Iran nuclear question in their stride. Rising US supplies helped the WTI-Brent spread widen to $17.55/bbl at end November. Brent last traded at $109.40/bbl, WTI at $98.30/bbl.

– The estimate of global oil demand for 2013 has been revised up by 130 kb/d, to 91.2 mb/d, on stronger-than-expected 3Q13 OECD demand growth of 320 kb/d. Global demand is now seen advancing by 1.2 mb/d in both 2013 and 2014, to reach 92.4 mb/d in 2014.

– Global oil supplies increased by 310 kb/d in November to 92.3 mb/d, as non-OPEC crude output topped 43 mb/d for the first time in decades. Year on year, November supplies rose by 810 kb/d, as a 1.9 mb/d surge in non-OPEC liquids and OPEC NGL more than offset a 1.1 mb/d drop in OPEC crude.

– OPEC crude supply fell by 160 kb/d in November to 29.73 mb/d, its fourth consecutive monthly decline. Renewed disruptions in Libya and smaller drops in Nigeria, Kuwait, the UAE and Venezuela more than offset higher output in Iran, Iraq and Angola. OPEC ministers kept their group output target unchanged at 30 mb/d.

– Global refinery crude runs plunged to 73.6 mb/d in October, down by 2 mb/d on September and by 1 mb/d on the year, on sweeping plant maintenance and weak margins. OECD Europe and the US led the decline. Throughputs are projected to rebound to 76.3 mb/d for 4Q13, up 180 kb/d on the year, and 76.7 mb/d in 1Q14 (+1.2 mb/d).

– OECD industry stocks edged down by 12.1 mb to 2 684 mb in October, a smaller-than-normal draw for the season, as surging crude and feedstock inventories largely offset an unusually steep product draw. Middle distillate stocks fell by 22.8 mb and at the onset of winter stood nearly 50 mb below average.
________________________________

More refinery closures on the cards for 2014 -IEA

Reuters
Dec. 11, 2013

* Natural gas liquids, biofuels to displace refined products
* New refineries in China will start to have effect in 2014
* Heating oil shortage possible due to lower stockpiles

LONDON, Dec 11 (Reuters) – An increase in new oil refining capacity and a rise in production of fuel not processed at refineries will lead to more plant closures in 2014, the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly report.

Crude distillation capacity will increase by a net 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2013 and a further 1.2 million bpd in 2014, IEA forecast in its December Oil Market Report.

Refineries in Europe, in particular, have been hit hard by competition from plants in the United States and Asia, and although there were relatively few closures in 2013 compared with the previous year, 2014 looks to be challenging.

“While on the face of it, refinery capacity additions look in line with projected demand growth over 2013 and 2014, in practice an increasing share of demand is being met by supplies bypassing the refining system,” the report said.

“As such, 2013 has seen simple margins plummet, and another round of refinery consolidation looks to be in the cards.”

Much of the increased demand will be met by natural gas and biofuel, which typically does not go through the oil refining system, the IEA said.

“In 2014, natural gas liquids (for the most part not processed at refineries) will grow by 550,000 bpd,” the report said.

“Biofuels will add another 60,000 bpd after expanding 120,000 bpd in 2013. Add in processing gains, and only 45 percent of projected demand will be sourced from refinery fuels.”

Read more here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/11/iea-refining-idUSL6N0JQ27H20131211

Ted on Wed, 11th Dec 2013 7:42 pm 



Well can anyone tell me how much new oil we need to find at current consumption and decline rates of current wells….add more people to the equation and I am guessing we need at least another Gewhar or a great world depression. When you run these numbers you really get an idea of the Red Queen scenario….shhh…don’t tell the masses…..

rollin on Wed, 11th Dec 2013 9:56 pm 



If the 6.5% worldwide annual decline rate is correct, 5 million new bpd of oil or oil substitutes have to be brought on line each year just to keep up the basic underpinning of conventional oil.

Is it possible to bring on over 5 mmbpd every year?

J-Gav on Wed, 11th Dec 2013 10:24 pm 



Rollin – I take it you answered your own question.

Ted on Thu, 12th Dec 2013 1:52 am 



currently how much are we adding online right now? And is the 6.5% conservative? And what about the increase of energy usage from China, India and Brazil and Saudi Arabia…are these factored in as well? Ted

moli on Sun, 15th Dec 2013 7:25 pm 



abiotic oil. . then what of peak?