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Page added on March 9, 2016
Russia may be running out of oil
The document, obtained by the newspaper and confirmed by a source in the ministry, says by 2035 existing oil fields will be able to provide Russia with less than half of today’s production of about 10.1 million barrels per day.
The shortfall should be met by increased production from proven reserves, according to projections by the Energy Ministry.
In the best case for oil producers, short-term growth remains possible only until 2020, according to the report. After that, production will contract. The figures vary from 1.2 percent to 46 percent, depending on prices, taxation and whether or not anti-Russian sanctions will be in force.
A slight increase in production is possible only for smaller companies like Slavneft and Russneft, while the market leaders are facing the depletion of existing deposits. Added to an unfavorable tax environment, their production is set to fall by 39-61 percent.
To counter the decline in oil production, the Energy Ministry proposes giving private companies access to the Arctic shelf, to soften the tax regime and support for small and medium-sized independent companies.
The Ministry also suggests promoting the processing of high-sulfur and super viscous heavy oil with the introduction of preferential rates of excise duties on fuel produced from such oil.
At the same time, the production of gas condensate is projected to increase dramatically in 20 years from 37 to 74 percent.
On Wednesday, Brent benchmark was trading at $40.11 per barrel, slightly off this year’s maximum of more than $41; US WTI crude was S36.81 per barrel.
12 Comments on "Russia may be running out of oil"
IFuckYouOver on Wed, 9th Mar 2016 6:58 am
This is the most important part and given an indication about the energy content.
The Ministry also suggests promoting the processing of high-sulfur and super viscous heavy oil with the introduction of preferential rates of excise duties on fuel produced from such oil.
https://www.eagle.org/eagleExternalPortalWEB/ShowProperty/BEA%20Repository/Rules&Guides/Current/31_HeavyFuelOil/Pub31_HeavyFuelOil
Page 26 talk about the energy content of high-sulfur oil and heavy oil. High-sulfur oil contains less energy than regular oil.
It will appear that we are now scrapping to bottom of the barrel in term of available energy to run complexity. I was talking about energy not volume of oil.
From the link about page 26.
Changes in diesel engine performance relative to the use of heavy fuel oil result primarily from the
reduction in heat contained in and released during the combustion of higher gravity, higher sulfur,
higher water content marine bunkers.
The specific gravity of a fuel oil is a reflection of its heating value. The heating value is determined
primarily by the carbon/hydrogen ratio; as the carbon/hydrogen ratio increases, the specific gravity
will increase and the heating value will decrease.
The heating value is also decreased by the presence of sulfur.
rockman on Wed, 9th Mar 2016 8:26 am
FYI: high S and heavy oils have been refined and consumed from the earliest days of production. Those oils might represent the majority of what’s left to produce but the tech to deal with them is decades old
IFuckYouOver on Wed, 9th Mar 2016 8:46 am
I am talking about energy content in high S and heavy oil. I am not talking about the number of barrels of oil or its capacity to be refined.
Nobody really understand the concept of energy and how it is powering the world.
I even meet some mechanical engineer that could not get it even after get a engineering degree.
There is no hope, the human specie will die off thinking that money and number of barrels oil power economies and matters.
GregT on Wed, 9th Mar 2016 11:07 am
“The document, obtained by the newspaper and confirmed by a source in the ministry, says by 2035 existing oil fields will be able to provide Russia with less than half of today’s production of about 10.1 million barrels per day.”
According to the EIA, Russia consumed ~3.5 M b/d in 2016. So if production were to drop by over 50% by 2035, it’s probably safe to say that Russia will still produce enough oil for domestic consumption.
Not so great for other countries depending on imports of Russian oil however. The ELM is going to be one unforgiving nasty bitch.
https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=RUS
GregT on Wed, 9th Mar 2016 11:28 am
“the human specie will die off thinking that money and number of barrels oil power economies and matters.”
The usual eCON-101 distorted view. “Money makes the world go ’round.” It does not. Energy does. Without energy, money is worthless.
Harquebus on Wed, 9th Mar 2016 6:12 pm
For the first time in history, all currencies are fiat and all fiat currencies are intrinsically worthless.
If you are trading worthless fiat currency for oil, you are getting a bargain.
makati1 on Wed, 9th Mar 2016 6:14 pm
Ah yes, this will all happen by … 2035! They will be down to “only” 10 million barrels per day.
And what will Saudi’s oil recovery look like in 20 years? Zero barrels?
And what will the US oil recovery look like in 20 years? Zero barrels?
Will the world even care in 20 years? I doubt it.
makati1 on Wed, 9th Mar 2016 6:17 pm
Harquebus, not if you have to work for those worthless pieces of paper, soon to only be digital on your credit card. Then the government can control if you even are allowed to buy any oil products. Or food.
“Forget the $100 bill—why does cash still exist in the digital age?”
“Why You Need to Prepare for the Cashless Society”
“Clamp Down on Cash Is the Ultimate Surveillance State”
Today on http://ricefarmer.blogspot.fr/
Lee Grove on Fri, 25th Mar 2016 12:57 am
Does anyone really doubt that no more than 5 years from now, we will be fuc*ed?
Depletion–and decreased net energy available–will be obvious even to the least among us,aka, members of the U.S congress, by then…
makati1 on Fri, 25th Mar 2016 1:10 am
Lee, some of us believe it will happen even sooner, but the denial crowd are still arguing that it will not happen for decades or maybe never. Fear is a mind killer.
GregT on Fri, 25th Mar 2016 2:02 am
“Does anyone really doubt that no more than 5 years from now, we will be fuc*ed?
I do. As the eternal optimist, I give us less than 15 years.
Davy on Fri, 25th Mar 2016 7:29 am
I give some locals less and others more and some nations less others more. I give the global system a few years of decay before it adapts to a lower economic level. Collapse is a process with an unknown time frame. You can date collapse events that are markers and will indicate a further process unfolding. There are also markers that point to events. Our last collapse event was the 08 crisis. Our last marker in the collapse process that points to a likely new collapse event is the end of QE and the whole decline of the Chinese economy in and around 14. Eventually this process since 14 is going to end with some kind of break. Will this be a bad recession or depression? Likely. This could all end tomorrow with a collapse or bounce along for 15 years. What is clear in my mind is that it is a process that has started. The 15 year possibility is pushing the collapse envelope in my mind but the global system has proven very resilient to change.