Peak Oil is You
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Page added on March 17, 2016
Russia has less than three decades of oil remaining
“Our recoverable oil reserves are about 29 billion tons. These are the ones that could theoretically be extracted from the subsoil. Crude oil production (without condensate) preliminarily amounted to about 505 million tons in 2015. Such reserves will last for 57 years,” the head of the ministry Sergey Donskoy told Rg.ru.
“However, the volume of proved reserves (we know exactly their whereabouts, quantity and how to extract them), according to experts, is only half of that, about 14 billion tons. The proved reserves will last for only 28 years,” he added.
According to Donskoy, Russia’s oil production will inevitably start to decline by 2020. The share of hard to extract oil will grow, as traditional resources will start to deplete.
This will also make the extraction more expensive, he said. “That’s why we won’t stop the exploration work,” Donskoy added.
Oil exploration is complicated by collapsing crude prices that have lost two-thirds of their value since 2014. However, Russian companies won’t cut back on exploration, which will remain at last year’s level, the minister said.
Rosneft…is focused on increasing the development drilling by 40 percent compared to last year. At the same time, the costs of land exploration will grow by almost 1.5 times,” he said. Donskoy added that Surgutneftegaz has no plans to reduce exploration activities, either, while Bashneft largely compensated the reduced extraction with increased stockpiles.
Russia also has big plans for Arctic drilling. In August, the country filed an application to expand the boundaries of its continental shelf in the region. The volumes may reach 5 billion tons of untapped oil and natural gas reserves worth as much as $30 trillion.
Donskoy said the application will be considered over three to five years, given its big volume. “The materials have been very well developed and give us every chance of approval of the application. Completed geological, geophysical and bathymetrical work is a serious scientific contribution to the study of the Arctic,” he said.
67 Comments on "Russia has less than three decades of oil remaining"
Plantagenet on Thu, 17th Mar 2016 7:05 pm
Peak Oil is coming.
Russia—this means you.
Cheers!
makati1 on Thu, 17th Mar 2016 7:08 pm
I would say that in 30 years oil will not be one of our worries. We will have either been decimated in a nuclear war or we will be living a pre-petroleum lifestyle, trying to survive in a much hotter and unhealthy world. Globalization will be just a word in the dictionary and only the old will remember this world of waste. If you are under 20, and lucky(?), you will see it.
makati1 on Thu, 17th Mar 2016 7:09 pm
Plant, the US will not even survive that long. Not by decades. So I would not cheer the Russian loss.
GregT on Thu, 17th Mar 2016 7:24 pm
Russia is a net exporter of oil planter. When Russian production peaks, that means less oil on the markets for net oil importers like the US.
Cheers!
dissident on Thu, 17th Mar 2016 9:47 pm
This is based on the ludicrous claim that Russia has less reserves than Kuwait. And the Moon is made out of green cheese.
If we are going to include non conventional reserves for the USA, then we have to include them for Russia. Russia has not touched its tar sands and shale oil deposits:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bazhenov_Formation
antaris on Thu, 17th Mar 2016 10:03 pm
If you take the shale oil out of the US production, the US will be down to nothing in 20 years. Check out the EIA historic US crude production graph and extrapolate.
dooma on Thu, 17th Mar 2016 11:07 pm
And the earth is flat if you happen to stray off the path while cruising through YouTube.
twocats on Thu, 17th Mar 2016 11:35 pm
couple of interesting data points:
US per capita oil usage is about 2.5x what Russia average per capita uses.
Russias population and consumption levels have still not gone back to 1992 levels.
And they haven’t retaken their 198(7?) oil production peak either.
many historians and citizens have likened the fall of USSR as pretty horrific, not unlike post-WWII conditions. one could see this is a great dry-run for the “peaks to come”.
I don’t know, but I sense Russians are equipped mentally to handle ongoing descents and coming “step downs” better than many populations.
makati1 on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 12:47 am
antaris, it takes money to recover any amount of oil. The US will not be able to recover any oil in a few years if the current rate of decent continues. No money, no oil. A good thing. Maybe not for you, but for the world in general.
makati1 on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 12:49 am
twocats, I agree. The narrow mined Americans can only see the world thru their patriot colored glasses. Reality is foreign to them. Pun intended.
Go Speed Racer on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 4:18 am
The Russians all have bear hats. So they don’t need to use as much energy staying warm, as we use.
http://russianushankahat.com/sites/default/files/bomber_hat_sheepskin_russian_full_fur.jpg
theedrich on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 4:38 am
What will happen post-Peak to the parasite pop? Maybe those wonderful vectors of diversity and drugs will decide to go back to where they came from? Or will compassionate Christian America starve itself in an attempt to give them all they demand?
And what about all of the snowflakes? Their calls for “morality” and “justice” for all Negroids, muds and mongoloid idiots, plus unlimited freebies for themselves will have to be answered, no matter the cost.
No problem: we can expect that some new killer app will save the sponges. At least, that is what the lords of the realm tell us.
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 5:03 am
@theedrich- is that you Kunstler?
shortonoil on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 6:50 am
Reserves are strictly the product of price and production cost; there is a lot more oil in the ground than will ever be removed. So in actuality, Sergey Donskoy doesn’t have a clue as to how much oil remains in Russia’s reserves; he doesn’t know what the price will be in the future.
If the long term price trend continues downward, and we are quit sure that it will:
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm
28 years is most likely just wishful thinking!
Practicalmaina on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 7:36 am
Good article, they must be going out of buisness if you look at the way the executives are robbing the coffers when they are losing billions annually.
Our tax dollars are gonna be mispent for these assholes again. http://www.vox.com/2016/3/18/11259906/peabody-energy
lenscraft on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 7:42 am
I thought Russians believed in abiotic?
Joe on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 8:54 am
Reported reserves etc are hogwash. The US should be dry by now if reserves and charts and estimates were true. Clearly peak oil is happening but it’s a drawn out process of change.
JuanP on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 9:07 am
Twocats “I don’t know, but I sense Russians are equipped mentally to handle ongoing descents and coming “step downs” better than many populations.”
I totally agree! The same goes for all countries that have experienced serious crises during the last decades like Cuba or Iran, but Russians stand out in this sense. Russia suffered enormously during the 20th Century, and their culture has adapted to repeated intense suffering. I believe they will be better off than most of the rest of us in the coming decades. Russia has a lot of land, water, and energy; a lot more than they need. Russia’s biggest concerns are climate change and attacks from abroad.
JuanP on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 9:15 am
I think that it is extremely good to have the Russian government talking about peaking production and production declines, even if they are being unrealistically optimistic in their forecasts, IMHO.
The important thing here is that Russia’s government is saying Peak Oil is real, it is coming to Russia soon, and we need to adapt and prepare for this. I think they are beginning to prepare their population for the peak in Russian oil production that will be declared most likely later this year or next.
twocats on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 10:45 am
practical,
brutal, painful article to read
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/18/11259906/peabody-energy
this is why, for many, PO can’t come fast enough. The social contract has been burned and spit on, even as it was dissolving under energy declines.
I guess the only comfort is that the millions and millions those executives got will be worthless long before they can spend that money (if they aren’t bludgeoned to death before that).
and I’m assuming Russia isn’t any better in terms of this type of cancer.
PracticalMaina on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 11:08 am
There needs to be some legal recourse to go after the obscene bonuses after the fact. Corrupt corporate judges, letting huge dirty industry off the hook on its responsibility to its own workers. This is not only the biggest coal company in the US but one of if not the oldest. They have been causing destruction for a long time, subsidized by the people breathing the pollution all the while.
PracticalMaina on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 11:32 am
People like to talk about a slow ROI on solar or green cost saving measures in general. How about over 6Billion in debt and negative cash flow for at least 2 more years? King coal is sicker than one of the children it used for slave labor.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Peabody+Energy+%28BTU%29+Not+Worth+More+than+$1+-+Barclays/11336681.html
HARM on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 1:17 pm
Yet another premature prediction about the practically unknowable. The U.S. just retraced its previous 1971 Hubbert’s peak, thanks to fracking, and the world is still reaching new highs almost
daily –yes, thanks to unconventional sources and intensive application of technology, but… big secret: it’s actually working.
Yes, at some point we will hit an extraction peak, but it likely (a) won’t be in any of our lifetimes, and (b) will not lead to the kind of global collapse of civilization envisioned (or
fantasized about) by so many here –especially not in technologically advanced and militarily powerful countries like the U.S. Will there be occasional local collapses/failed states? Yes; general
worldwide collapse? No.
Sorry guys, I used to be a confirmed early peaker myself, but BAU has been so d**ned good at pushing that curve out and extracting ever more fossil fuels faster, I no longer believe I will live to see it happen. As George Monbiot said, “We were wrong on peak oil. There’s enough to fry us all”. Which, by the way is extremely bad news for every other wild species on the planet –as we gradually pollute and overpopulate most of them out of existence (and perhaps ourselves as well, but not for a very long, long, long time).
PracticalMaina on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 1:30 pm
The current economic situation may be leading to peak coal as we speak. Which will increase demand on nat gas, which will make tar sands even less economical. We shall see the true balance this summer, when Saudi and the entire middle east start cranking up domestic usage for ac and desalination. Both of which demand will continue to increase for despite better tech, as climate change will be magnified in these areas. This is because Saudi has not actually made any real renewable strides, despite the huge solar potential.
I see man coming out of this, bloodied and battered. We will continue to implement renawables, we will have to accept the loss of all low lying areas. But climate change becoming obvious to the masses, decreased economic value of fossil fuels compared to renewables, will end the current year after year records in carbon extraction we are currently in. I see the peak extraction rate for all fossil fuels being very close. Emerging economys are so overpopulated that large ICE vehicles do not make sense. If you live near a city, you are going to spend most of your time in traffic, either drawing a few watts for the radio while sitting still, or putting out expensive government subsidized smog.
HARM on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 2:15 pm
@PractialManina,
Where I’m sitting (U.S.) climate change is not only NOT obvious to the “masses”, they are poised to elect one of the chief CC deniers as President: Trump.
As far as emerging economies (China, India, etc.) “giving up” ICE vehicles –lol, good luck with that. They cannot seem to import them fast enough.
Meanwhile central banksters continue with ZIRP, NIRP, TALF, QE3/4/5/6, etc. driving the cost of housing, heathcare, formal education and other basic needs far beyond the reach of the proles. The oligarchs, with unlimited access to central bank 0% interest credit, scoop up everything wholesale and then rent it back to the rest of us serfs at 5-6% (housing), 8% (college) or 20% (credit cards) or 500% (payday loans) interest rates. Wash, rinse, repeat… until they own everything everywhere.
Every year, exponential population growth of cancer apes continues. 10 years ago, we were increasing by 70 million a year. Now, thanks to the “magic” of exponential growth, we are increasing by 80 million a year. And birth rates in the worst most impoverished, violent, misogynistic and illiterate nations (sorry Religion of Peace apologists) continues to be sky-high.
Cancer apes will continue to breed until the proverbial last tree is cut down, every last insect and twig is boiled and eaten. At which point, they will be unable to breed further, the Anthropogenic age ends, and the next geological age begins. Fortunately (or unfortunately?), that day is very far away, at least on a human timescale.
PracticalMaina on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 2:28 pm
I am here in the US as well, I mean masses with over double digit IQs, it will only be obvious to the rest when their house is under water-blown apart in a hurricane. What is the old saying, third times the charm? Because this will be our 3rd record temp year. This month in my area is around 8 degrees Fahrenheit above average.
Also, as unpopular as Hillary is (please let Bernie pull the nomination away from her) I do not think Trump can take it, the fear mongering can only go so far. The facts dont back up what he says either, immigration from Mexico is lower than it has been, and since 911 right wing domestic extremest have killed more people than Muslim extremist in this country.
The third world may be importing those rigs quickly but when you cant run your car because of a smog day, you are going to look at your neighbor on an electric scooter or if your in a nice area a Tesla, and you are going to regret the short sighted decision you made, and next time you will do differently.
Also good luck eating all of the bugs, I have scene plenty of photos of African children dying of starvation covered in flies, tough to catch those to eat with your body in starvation mode.
GregT on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 3:21 pm
The average IQ in North America is 98 Practical. So obviously ‘the masses’ are double digits and below. Besides, even most of those with above double digits IQs still believe that the biggest threat associated with CC is sea level rise, and they also believe that it is a long ways away. It is not. Within 20 years or less, we’re in for an entire world of hurt, and it’s looking more and more likely that we’re done for within one generation. Maybe even ours.
Apneaman on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 3:49 pm
Woe Brazil. Looking like it’s coming closer to TSHTF there everyday. Corrupt elites playing power games while working folks suffer. The angst of powerlessness can drive people to revolt. I don’t know what will happen down there or anywhere, but someone is going to collapse into chaos and/or authoritarianism/martial law and/or civil war. All the elements that lead to these troubles are lining up in multiple countries. If Brazil goes, I imagine it will have some serious ripple effect on the rest of the world. Pretty sparse media coverage considering.
Brazil’s Petrobras scandal, explained
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/18/11260924/petrobras-brazil
Apneaman on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 3:56 pm
Apparently, I’m wrong about the amount of media coverage.
Brazil Is Engulfed by Ruling Class Corruption — and a Dangerous Subversion of Democracy
“THE MULTIPLE, REMARKABLE crises subsuming Brazil are now garnering substantial Western media attention. That’s understandable given that Brazil is the world’s fifth most populous country and eighth-largest economy; its second-largest city, Rio de Janeiro, is the host of this year’s Summer Olympics. But much of this Western media coverage mimics the propaganda coming from Brazil’s homogenized, oligarch-owned, anti-democracy media outlets and, as such, is misleading, inaccurate, and incomplete, particularly when coming from those with little familiarity with the country (there are numerous Brazil-based Western reporters doing outstanding work)”
https://theintercept.com/2016/03/18/brazil-is-engulfed-by-ruling-class-corruption-and-a-dangerous-subversion-of-democracy/
As per usual the US is involved in the shit disturbing.
“THE CURRENT VERSION of Brazilian democracy is very young. In 1964, the country’s democratically elected left-wing government was overthrown by a military coup. Both publicly and before Congress, U.S. officials vehemently denied any role, but — needless to say — documents and recordings subsequently emerged proving the U.S. directly supported and helped plot critical aspects of that coup.”
Boat on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 6:27 pm
GregT on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 3:21 pm
The average IQ in North America is 98
As usual GregT either doesn’t know or distorts facts. Today the average
American would have an IQ over if tested in 1900. Fact is they adjust the test over time.
Now ladies and gentlemen, bow legged ants, and crossed eyed mosquitoes, let’s all gather round and listen to gregs head expload.
Boat on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 6:28 pm
over 150
Apneaman on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 7:06 pm
Boat, of course they adjust the test. There are things known now that were not known then – like plate tectonics.
Sorry Boat, but I bet you and the vast majority of Americans could not pass a grade 8 test from 1900. You is so dumbed down that you are unaware of how fucking stupid you are – Kruger Dunning effect.
An 1895 8th Grade Final Exam: I Couldn’t Pass It. Could You?
https://newrepublic.com/article/79470/1895-8th-grade-final-exam-i-couldnt-pass-it-could-you
Have at it boat and remember, there were no calculators for the maths. Good luck Einstein.
Apneaman on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 7:08 pm
1912 Eighth Grade Examination for Bullitt County Schools
http://bullittcountyhistory.org/bchistory/schoolexam1912.html
GregT on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 7:13 pm
http://www.photius.com/rankings/national_iq_scores_country_ranks.html
The average IQ in the US is 98, 99 for Canada, and 88 for Mexico.
Average IQs have actually been dropping in North America over time.
One in 2230 people in the world have an IQ of 150 or greater. Or 145,000 out of 330,000,000 Americans.
http://www.iqcomparisonsite.com/iqtable.aspx
My best guess Boat, is that your IQ is well below about 85.
makati1 on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 8:15 pm
GregT, perhaps Boat would like to take this 8th grade test I found on the internet last year?
If you can not read the fine print or zoom in, then here are some examples of 8th grade level testing in 1912.
Define the following terms of government: Democracy, Limited Monarchy, Absolute Monarchy, Republic. Give Examples of Each.
To what four governments are students in school subjected?
Name 5 county officers and the principal duties of each.
Give 3 duties of the president. What is meant by VETO power?
Give at least 5 rules to be observed in maintaining good health?
Define Cerebrum; Cerebellum
Name the organs of circulation.
How many parts of speech are there? Define each.
http://www.naturalblaze.com/2015/07/8th-grade-test-from-1912-shows-how-far.html
Boat on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 8:17 pm
gregt,
Are you saying that the 40 million foreign born current immigrents make the US average one point lower? Just think, once they learn they will surpass the land of EH?
makati1 on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 8:28 pm
Here is the test with the answers…
http://bullittcountyhistory.org/bchistory/schoolexam1912ans.html
The top 5 countries in IQ levels are all Asian. Then some European. Then Mongolia. Then the US at #24.
http://www.statisticbrain.com/countries-with-the-highest-lowest-average-iq/
Other lists are similar with the US way down from the smartest.
IFuckYouOver on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 8:32 pm
IQ test are bullshit and are used by people with low IQ.
According to the link above Sweden is at rank 10.
Sweden is a country on its way to third world status because they are accepting too much immigrants. A country voluntary going toward third wold status is not a country with hight IQ.
I called bullshit on IQ test.
Apneaman on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 8:33 pm
Boat, as per usual you are fucking clueless. The US would only have had a third rate space program (like now) and no moon landing if not for a bunch of foreign born Nazi war criminals. Native born mericans are fat, lazy, entitled and stupid.
Majority of Silicon Valley employees are foreign born: Report
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/Majority-of-Silicon-Valley-employees-are-foreign-born-Report/articleshow/50974679.cms
More U.S. Scientists and Engineers Are Foreign-Born
http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2011/usforeignbornstem.aspx
Boat on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 8:34 pm
mak,
Just another example of how smart enough can still get caught up thinking dumb. People simply have much higher IQ’s now. The cult has you brain washed. Use independent thought and research IQ.
makati1 on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 9:20 pm
Boat, I just did, and I probably know more about IQ than you do. Studied it in college 50 years ago and have observed humanity since then.
For instance, IQ does NOT improve with time passing. If it did, we would all be a super genius by now and not dropping back into the level of our ape ancestors.
Americans are being dumbed down by their sugar/salt/GMO diet and their degraded schooling. The elite don’t want an intelligent serf. Just a worker that can be used and then discarded, like you.
makati1 on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 9:26 pm
IFYO, maybe you are the ignorant one? IQ is not determined by how many immigrants you allow into your country. It’s determined by your genes. It has not changed in the last few years because your economy has degraded. If so, then Asia would not be at the top of the lists, would it? And China would not be above the US.
IFuckYouOver on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 10:18 pm
makati1 is just another dump asia. Japan is full of stupid people. Bank of Japan doing QE over and over and expecting different result.
Japanese are stupid people
GregT on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 10:34 pm
“Just another example of how smart enough can still get caught up thinking dumb. People simply have much higher IQ’s now.”
IQ has nothing to do with knowledge. It is about one’s ability to learn. You are either born with a high IQ, or you are not. It makes no difference whether you were born 500 years ago, you were born in a tribe
in the Amazon, or you attended the best schools in the world. You were either born intelligent, or you were born not so intelligent, like you Boat.
GregT on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 10:42 pm
IFYO,
The entire planet is plagued with stupid people. There just happens to be far more of them in Western society, than there are in the East. Japanese on average, are much more intelligent than white people.
GregT on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 10:57 pm
“Are you saying that the 40 million foreign born current immigrents make the US average one point lower?”
No Boat. The smart Mexicans are migrating north. If anything, they are increasing the average American IQ.
Deport the smart Mexicans and the Asians, and the average American IQ would probably be slightly higher than yours. Probably somewhere around 87.
makati1 on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 11:05 pm
IFYO, if you take Japanese leadership and compare them with American leadership, they are still smarter. Japan has kept their country going for over 20 years when it should have collapsed. And without wars of plunder. The US not so. If the US lasts another year, it will be a miracle. Look at your leadership. Clowns and grifters*. LMAO
*grifter: Someone who swindles you through deception or fraud.
GregT on Fri, 18th Mar 2016 11:12 pm
“makati1 is just another dump asia.”
Thanks for passing on your incredible powers of observation IFYO. I never would have guessed that mak was just another ‘dump asia’. Between Boat and yourself, you guys are redefining the concept of intelligence.
GregT on Sat, 19th Mar 2016 1:08 am
The Boat non-sense quote of the day;
“Just another example of how smart enough can still get caught up thinking dumb.”
So many more days to go. So much more stupidity to expose. Good work Boat!
onlooker on Sat, 19th Mar 2016 1:10 am
“Americans are being dumbed down by their sugar/salt/GMO diet and their degraded schooling. The elite don’t want an intelligent serf. Just a worker that can be used and then discarded, like you.” Yep, smart enough to produce for THEM but not sufficiently smart to be aware and wish to dethrone them. Like the adage that stated “The Devils greatest trick was making us think he did not exist” Well modern slavery in the West is characterized by the insidious feature of making us think we are NOT slaves.