Peak Oil in America?

Yes! During my 14-year run in the institutional research and trading business in Boston, the finest analyst with whom I worked was oil analyst Dave Hammer. Since 1990 Dave has been the managing partner of Hammer Asset Management. We stay in touch to this day. Yesterday I asked Dave about my concern that shale production could soon be peaking in America.

Here’s Dave’s reply: “Bakken and Three Forks are beginning to peak. Current annual increase in production now equals the monthly increase of two years ago. Production will peak in 2020 assuming $70-$100/bbl. oil. The good thing is that the decline rate is slow. In 2060 ND shale will still be producing more than 50% of its 2020 one-million bbl./day peak.”

– See more at: http://www.richardcyoung.com/essential-news/peak-oil-america/#sthash.z35w3Gw0.dpuf

6 Comments on "Peak Oil in America?"

shortonoil on Thu, 4th Dec 2014 1:00 pm 



Production will peak in 2020 assuming $70-$100/bbl. oil.

We seriously doubt that statement! As a matter of fact we think he is dead wrong.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

SugarSeam on Thu, 4th Dec 2014 1:06 pm 



I snap put it on the pay-no-mind list at “the decline rate is slow.”

Plantagenet on Thu, 4th Dec 2014 2:36 pm 



It all depends on the price of oil. If oil is $120/bbl, people will be at it for decades, drilling every last bit of the Bakken. If the price stays at $50-65 bbl, then the Bakken will be uneconomic .

coffeeguyzz on Thu, 4th Dec 2014 6:59 pm 



Kinda strange article … “million barrel a day peak” in 2020? Sorry, Jack, that CBR already left the station as the Bak already hit 1,200,000bpd in November.
The 2013 USGS report pegged the underlying Three Forks as actually being larger – recovery wise – than the Bakken, and the Three Forks is far, far from even being delineated as the lower third bench (there are four benches/layers in the TF) has had only a handful of wells drilled to date.

Keith_McClary on Fri, 5th Dec 2014 11:55 am 



It links to a 2008 article.

coffeeguyzz on Fri, 5th Dec 2014 6:12 pm 



2008 Keith? Thanks for the heads up on that … but why are we checkin’ out info from near Fred Flintstone time frame? Methinks current data/ conditions are heady enuff to try to interpret and stay atop of. Thanks again for clarifying. (Nice avatar, BTW)