Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios

Trendlines Research monitors the major forecasts of peak oil depletion from around the globe.  Updates of the 14 tier-1 scenarios (and consensus avg) are plotted on a graph and each month the Tier-1 presentation is posted to this website.  The 21 others are plotted on a Tier-2 chart.  For purists, a third chart plots the only 4 forecasts using the narrow definition of Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude … which peaked in 2005).  For posterity purposes, a final chart tracks the noteworthy historic but failed predictions since 1956.

Compilation and consensus avg of the world’s 14 most accurate recognized Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios, based on data by BP (UK), EIA (USA), Deutsche Bank (USA Division – Sankey, Clark & Micheloto), ExxonMobil (USA), Freddy Hutter (the Yukon/Canada), IEA (OECD-Paris), OPEC (Vienna), PFC Energy (USA), Chris Skrebowski (UK), Michael Smith (UK), Statoil (Norway), Total (France), Turner-Mason (USA) & Peter Wells (UK):

  Consensus based on 14-model Tier-1 avg:

   Peak Oil:  98 Mbd in 2028

   Post-peak Decline Rate ’til 2050:  0.9 %/yr avg

   The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted:  2037

   The year flow retreats below today’s 90-Mbd:  2043

   The year flow drops to ½ of today’s 90-Mbd:  2086

   The year we virtually run out of oil:  2296  (less than 8-Mbd & mostly BTL)

   URR/EUR:  4,286 Gb  (1,319-Gb consumed to 2012/12/31 excl 6-Gb BTL)

   Proved Reserves to be consumed from 2013 ’til 2029 Peak:  541 Gb

   Today’s Global Depletion:  31% of URR  (Net Depletion Rate:  1.1%/yr)

Tier-1 Scenarios Chart Archive w/o text:  “charts only” from 2004 to 2013 available at MemberVenue

     Tier-1 Scenarios Chart Archive “with text” from 2004 to 2013 available at MemberVenue

Backgrounder ~ In 1972, the Club of Rome attempted to shock stakeholders, politicians and policy makers with its Limits to Growth study forecast of All Liquids Peak Oil:  117-Mbd in 1995.  They attempted to promote awareness natural resources are finite, but in jeopardy with growing global population.  This was underscored in 1974 with M K Hubbert’s similar prediction:  111-Mbd in 1995 (excluding NGL, deep sea, polar, Orinoco & tar sands).

Because OPEC manipulation truncated both these predictions, Colin Campbell attempted to update the long-term prospects for All Liquids.  The Irish geologist stunned many when in 1989 he declared present All Liquids flow (65.5-Mbd) would never again re-attain its 1979 pre-crisis Peak of 67-Mbd (see all 3 charted).  Well, he was very wrong (88-Mbd today).  This episode made it quite clear the uncertainty & price volatility caused by such pessimistic reports (even by well-intentioned professionals) required formal addressing by the energy sector.  In that regard, we saw OECD’s IEA, USA’s EIA, OPEC and major IOCs step forward with their own annual & bi-annual long-range projections in an attempt to set the record straight and stabilize the marketplace.

The effort did not last long.  After Y2k, the ranks of McPeaksters (promoters of “imminent” Peak

 Oil) swelled with a growing element from the lunatic fringe.  Campbell’s well-meaning alert was hijacked and discourse deteriorated to the realm of economic and social collapse whilst the world runs out of oil.  As the rhetoric escalated, I thought it would be constructive to provide a platform for objective opposing views of the future.

Trendlines Research has been analysing the world’s very best All Liquids depletion profiles (and the not-so-good ones) since 2003.  My database includes six decades of forecast studies.  A year later I commenced to share the charted results at this website.  Back in 2005, the 7-model avg indicated a 94-Mbd PEAK in 2020.  My not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, I am humbled with this project’s contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 2.5-Mbd/yr:  reduced from 41-Mbd (Campbell 85 & CERA 126) in 2005 to today’s 19-Mbd (Skrebowski 94 & ExxonMobil 113) spread.

Interested in who had the best forecast a dozen years ago?  Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

The initial “original six” Depletion Scenarios chart appeared in 2004.  Two years later the presentation had expanded to 13 Outlooks and included an annotation displaying its consensus projection for Peak Date & Peak Rate and a production profile.  After swelling to two dozen models in 2008, it was decided to protect the integrity of the consensus data it provides for international petroleum studies by adding only Tier-1 Scenarios in the future whilst inferior and stale-dated Outlooks would be purged.  This unique depiction has become the hallmark indicator for future oil depletion with worldwide use among policymakers, legislators, academia, oil sector stakeholders & investors in 125 nations in the past year.

 Peak Oil:  98 mbd in 2028

Aug 29 2013 delayed FreeVenue public release of May 29th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today’s release updates only my own Tier-1 Outlook (Hutter Peak Scenario-2500)

Global monthly production set yet another record (89.5-Mbd) in Nov/2012 and a new quarterly record of 89.3-Mbd in 1Q13.  The 2013 year-to-date extraction is on pace to shatter last year’s annual record (89.1) with a new mark of 89.9-Mbd.  Monthly production is poised to break 90-Mbd this month and crack the 95 threshold in 2018.  At this time, it appears PEAK OIL will occur upon production hitting 98-Mbd in 2028.  It is probable this will be a geology constrained event … not one induced by PEAK DEMAND.

View the World Production Records venue for higher resolution charts of current extraction both at the global level and by the Top 7 nations.  Saudi Arabia is back on top and Canada has overtaken Iran.  Historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future target prices (thru 2040 & 2017) can be perused via Trendlines Barrel Meter & Gas Pump charts.

 Today’s Model Reviews

A favourite contribution to this 14-model Depletion study is of course my own Peak Scenario-2500.  The only oil depletion model updated monthly, it hypothesizes two possible courses towards Peak Oil:  a GEOLOGIC PEAK & PEAK DEMAND.  Its current revision reflects three factors:  (a) the projected avg annual New Capacity build rate to Year 2100 decreased to 4.8-Mbd (from 5.2) & (b) All Liquids URR/EUR increased by 60-Gb to 6,971-Gb.

My GEOLOGIC PEAK scenario currently projects resource constraints will lead to a 99-Mbd production peak (104-Mbd capacity) in 2023.  This is a major departure from April’s 101-Mbd Peak in 2030.  The model calculates 366-Gb of today’s proved reserves (1,399-Gb) will be required by 2023 to facilitate this.  And contrary to the many pessimistic visions, it predicts post-peak decline to mid-century will be a manageable 0.6-Mbd/yr.

An alternative methodology, my PEAK DEMAND scenario, suggests there is a quite remote possibility this geologic peak could be truncated by excessive crude prices.  It proposes rising prices have been behind the waning global Consumption growth rate since 2005 and ultimately triple-digit levels could arrest demand growth altogether.  The model has discovered demand growth ceases whenever crude price surpasses a definitive Oil/GDP ratio.

This PEAK DEMAND Barrier is defined by the Barrel Meter module and it predicts that should GEOLOGIC PEAK be much later than projected, then PEAK DEMAND could truncate that event if in the meantime crude price permanently surpasses the Peak Demand Barrier.  The model suggests this will occur when oil surpasses $291/barrel in 2038.  But being fifteen years after GEOLOGIC PEAK, it appears PEAK DEMAND will not be the determinant for Peak Oil unless crude prices rise extremely faster than presently forecast.

PS-2500 gauges this year’s Underlying Decline Rate Observed is 3.6% (3.23-Mbd) of All Liquids and forecasts the pace to rise to 5.6% by mid-Century.  Its 8.5-yr cyclicality since 1970 and deterioration to 2050 can be viewed via the UDRO chart.  The model estimates 77 Mbd of the 119 Mbd of All Liquids Capacity added since 1970 addressed Underlying Decline Observed.  A further 57-Mbd is required to attain the 104-Mbd capacity target for 2023:  13 to increase present capacity and 44-Mbd addresses future UDO.

PS-2500 optimism that PEAK OIL is ten years away continues to be founded on its controversial Aug/2009 thesis proposing light sweet crude peaked @ 67-Mbd in 2005 but commenced a 15-year 61-Mbd plateau in 2009.  The terminal decline in All Liquids production will correlate with the renewed secular decline of Regular Conventional Oil.  This is diametrically opposed to the imminent peak oil fraternity view which is built on Colin Campbell’s long-time premise (RCO chart below) regular conventional oil’s 1.9%/yr decline rate would continue unabated ’til 2030.  While PS-2500 predicts RCO’s 2030 flow will still be 51-Mbd, Campbell has been stalwart in forecasting a 38-Mbd pace.  Had Campbell been accurate, 2013 RCO would be 58 … it is in fact 62-Mbd.

Since Nov/2009, PS-2500 has incorporated the predictive economic forecasts of its underlying Gas Pump & Barrel Meter  component modules.  Via its discovery of definitive Oil/GDP ratios, the Barrel Meter suggests the Price Spike Ceiling for USA Refiner Acquisition Crude is currently $157/barrel;  the Induced G-20 Recessions Threshold is $130;  the USA Light Vehicle Sales Barrier is $117;  & its Peak Demand Barrier is $112.  Its analysis suggests continued improvement of oil’s price fundamentals (and non-fundamentals) will result in a $68/barrel trough ($62 WTI) in early 2018 and be followed by resumption of the secular uptrend ($327 2040 target).  Since April 2013 the model has been warning of a major failure of gasoline/diesel powered units within the auto sector upon RAC surpassing $144/barrel in 2026.

At $97/barrel in April, USA RACrude is far below the PEAK DEMAND Barrier ($112) as defined and calculated by the TRENDLines Barrel Meter price model.  This enabled the sector to set a new monthly Consumption record in Feb/2013 (90.2-Mbd).  Demand records had taken a temporary hiatus after RAC price breached the PDB in March 2012 … the third such episode since 2008.  International Inventories are presently just over their 5-yr avg and 5% of global capacity is presently idle, eagerly awaiting new Demand from non-OECD nations.

The Barrel Meter module has tracked oil & gasoline’s seven fundamental and non-fundamental price components since 2004 (retroactive to 1999).  For April 2013, it determines the $97 RAC was comprised of:  Extraction ($45/barrel), USDollar Debasement ($19), Lack of Surplus Capacity ($17), Stress Premium ($10), Speculation/Hedging Activity ($7) & Inventory Build ($-1).

Employing three similar definitive Gasoline/GDP ratios, the Gas Pump currently suggests its Light Vehicle Sales Barrier will be breached @ $3.58/gallon and the Price Spike Ceiling is $4.59/gal.  It forecasts pump price is en route to $2.70/gal by 1Q18 prior to resuming its secular uptrend ($4.86  2030 target).  Since May 2013 the model has been warning of a major failure of gasoline fuelled units within the auto sector upon Retail Gasoline surpassing $4.11/gal (monthly avg) in 2024.

Visit the PS-2500 venue for lots more details and charts on non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline Rate Observed & the inherent flaws (and myths) associated with the McPeakster fraternity.

more tier-1 & tier-2 scenarios updates next month…

Further to the 14 Tier-1 models, 21 lesser quality outlooks are regularly charted as Tier-2 scenarios.  For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Oil projections & 14 Invalidated Outlooks are charted as well.  But, it is the consensus avg of the 14 Tier-1 models which offers up the very best professional guidance, such as the following findings:

 Future Extraction Rates

 Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The consensus avg URR/EUR estimate for the 14 Tier-1 practitioners is 4,286-Gb when one deducts from the nominal avg the volume attributable to renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) as calculated by the Hutter Peak Scenario-2500 model.  It estimates a cumulative 577-Gb BTL will have been produced thru to Year 2325.  This net economic reserves tally compares remarkably well to the 4,174-Gb consensus avg derived by the 22 estimates within our similar URR Study with its slightly different mix of practitioners, some of whom only track conventional liquids.

(May Depletion Scenarios update cont’d above… )

TRENDLines calculates Global Past Consumption (to 2012/12/31) to be 1,325-Gb for All Liquids of which 1,148-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude) & 6-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002.  Via the 14-model consensus avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by Year 2070 (excl BTL).  Annual flow will finally dip below the 8-Mbd threshold in Year 2296 … signifying the virtual exhaustion of fossil fuels.  From that juncture, only BTL sourced renewable liquids along with the last vestiges of CTL & GTL provide Supply.

Of the Tier-1 model contributors, the lowest URR tally is the 2,560 Gb inferred in the PFC Energy Outlook.  Highest is EIA‘s 9.0 Tb URR.

 Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2028 98-Mbd PEAK indicated by the 14-model consensus avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-Mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2020 to 2034.  As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the average can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE.  My first exercise in averaging (seven models, 2005) indicated a 94-Mbd PEAK in 2020.  The multi-model consensus avg for PEAK DATE in the Depletion Scenarios’ updates since then has ranged from 2013 to 2030; and we have reported PEAK RATE spanning from 91 to 99-Mbd.  All charts from 2004 to today can be viewed on a single page at the exclusive MemberVenue archive.

Today’s Tier-1 models’ Peak Date ranges from 2015 by Chris Skrebowski to Year 2036 by IEA … a span of 21 years.

Today’s update contains a Peak Rate range from 94-Mbd by Chris Skrebowski to ExxonMobil‘s 113-Mbd … a difference of 19-Mbd.

I am truly humbled with this project’s contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3.1-Mbd/yr.  Today’s high-to-low spread of 19-Mbd has been diminished from 41 (Campbell 85 & CERA 126) just seven years ago.  While the pessimists have upped their forecasts by 1.1-Mbd/yr in that time frame, the optimists have in turn been dropping by 1.9-Mbd/yr.  Trivia alert:  if this unholy methodology continues, by 2018 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a peak rate of “101”…

 Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.  The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion.  Using the 15-model consensus avg, and excluding 6-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,319-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,286-Gb consensus avg URR reveals global Depletion of 31% (to 2012/12/31).  Using these metrics, the passing of one-third of URR is near at hand…

The global Gross Depletion Rate (33-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.8%/yr today.  If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (2,967-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 1.1%/yr.

The consensus 2028 PEAK occurs at 43% Depletion.  The 50% crossover of the inferred URR avg will occur in 2037.  These results would appear to confirm my long-time position that the classic Hubbert bell curve, itself well designed to forecast maximum production for Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude), may not be applicable as an indicator for projecting the cumulative peak of All Liquids and its seven streams, each with their own unique production profile (see PS-2500).

 Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%.  A Producer’s EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor.  After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO).  It is expressed in millions of barrels/day per annum.  More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval – appropriately the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO).  To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.  And barring Demand nuances, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since Nov/2007, Peak Scenario-2500 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status.  Its (charted) long-term analysis found that over the last 43 years, UDRO has averaged 2.9% annually.  This means that of the 119-Mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 77 served to address UDO & only 42-Mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 49 in 1969 to 91-Mbd by year-end 2009.  The UDRO rises & falls with surges coinciding with the America’s Structural Recessions & Depressions.  Below, the PS-2500 finding is compared to short/medium term practitioner estimates of annual present/future All Liquids UDRO:

   1.7% – Leonardo Maugeri (2012-2020 avg)

   1.9% – Adam Brandt (2007 – sole peer-reviewed contribution)

   2.1% – CERA (2009-2030 avg)

   3.0% – IEA (2011-2035 avg)

   3.6% – Hutter Peak Scenario-2500 (2013, cyclical & rising to 5.6% by 2050)

   4.1% – Matt Simmons (2009-2030 avg)

   4.2% – Jeff Rubin (2009)

   4.5% – EIA (2009-2030 avg)

   4.5% – OPEC (2008)

   4.7% – Chris Skrebowski (2010)

   5.0% – Total (2009)

   5.0% – Deutsche Bank (5% in 2009, rising to 8% by 2030 … 6.7% avg)

   5.2% – Schlumberger (2009-2030 avg)

   5.25% – Sadad al Husseini (2009)

   6.0% – PFC (by 2030)

   7.0% – UK Energy Research Centre (2009)

   9.0% – consensus at theOilDrum & PeakOildotcom (2009)

 Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline;  often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate.  The TRENDLines 14-model consensus avg declines at 0.9% per annum measured from the 2030 PEAK to Year 2050.  This is quite manageable for policy makers, politicians and stakeholders when compared to the most aggressive rate mathematically possible (1.3%) as illustrated in the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.  Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 7-Mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2325, the consensus decline rate will average 0.9% annually while the WCS grows to 3.2%.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2016 by Chris Skrebowski to Year 2036 by IEA.

The avg post-peak Decline Rates to 2050 within the models ranges from EIA‘s 0.3%/yr to 2.7%/yr for Statoil.

~

(May Depletion Scenarios update cont’d above… )

Post OPEC-Crisis forecasting of an All Liquids PEAK commenced in 1989.  Our archive of pre-2001 projections reveals Jean Laherrère’s 1997 Outlook (France) as current title holder for best overall vintage predictions, by merits of its least cumulative errors over a three year span.

Second place goes to Jean Laherrère’s 1999 Outlook & third place to EIA’s 1995 Int’l Energy Outlook (USA).

I must also add 3 honourable mentions to the Jean Laherrère 1997 Outlook for its best forecast for all three of the monitored years … all of ’em being accurate to within 1-Mbd!  (rev 11.1218)

 Methodology revisions

a) If an Outlook does not fully address post-peak production Decline, a progressive decline rate (to ultimate R/P = 10) is arbitrarily applied to exhaust its designated URR.

b) Outlooks exhibiting extreme “doglegs” not reflective of conventional/non-conventional transitions, but rather created by our reconciliation with URR risk are downgraded to Tier-2 status

c) To improve the integrity, accuracy and due diligence of both the Scenarios illustrated and more importantly their cumulative Average, Outlooks with unreasonably optimistic medium term flow rates have been routinely disqualified since Feb/2008.  In the spirit of transparency, Trendlines Research has been publishing the qualifying threshold:  via current MegaProject analysis, we calculate the 2014 potential flow rate to be 97.6-mbd (incl Surplus Capacity and UDO discrepancy), albeit the probable rate is 90.8-mbd (PS-2500) or 95.3-mbd via IEA 2011 MTOGM.

It is suggested inferred flow rates breaching the 97.6-Mbd 2014 threshold to the upside are seriously flawed.  This newer rate gives 6.8-mbd latitude above the probable 90.8-mbd target rate.  It is felt this is overly generous but grants consideration to differing opinions by modellers wrt Surplus Capacity & Underlying Decline Observed.  To date, 5 Outlooks have been downgraded to Tier-2 status due to this trigger.

d) Where a practitioner provides two or more Outlooks, we often use discretion to feature the more conservative version & their “Hail Mary” scenario is relegated to the Tier-2 presentation.

e) Scroll down to view Footnotes for:  Tier-1 Scenarios, Tier-2 & “Hail Mary” Scenarios & Invalidated Archive Scenarios.

f) Scroll further for the 1989-2011 Colin Campbell Depletion Model tracking,  Regular Conventional Crude tracking & Excluded Practitioners

g) For comparative purposes, all Scenarios are adjusted to the 2012 EIA All Liquids baseline and thus their Peaks and mileposts may vary from published data

h)  In the interest of data integrity for the 15-model Trendlines consensus average, Outlooks may be downgraded to Tier-2 after a failure to update after 36 months

i) Where an Outlook fails to address BTL (biofuels-to-liquid), a 5-Mbd BTL flow is attributed to its exhaustion tail

j) Post-peak decline rates are calculated from first year of decline to Year 2050.  Previous to Nov/2011, the rate was measured to 10-Mbd exhaustion threshold.

Underlying Decline Observed (UDO), Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) & Underlying Decline Rate (UDR) are terms coined by Freddy Hutter of TRENDLines in our 2008/11/12 & 2007/12/19 Depletion Scenarios updates

“McPeakster“:  coined by Freddy Hutter of TRENDLines in our 2008/2/11 Scenarios update

“McDoomer“:  coined by Freddy Hutter of TrendLines in our 2009/1/23 PS-2500 update, but he originated the term at the PeakOildotcom forums in June 2008

“G-20 Recessions Threshold” was coined by Freddy Hutter in the Feb/2010 Barrel Meter Discussions

The USA “Light Vehicle Collapse Barrier” (Feb/2011) was coined by Freddy Hutter in the Gas Pump Discussions.

“Peak Demand Barrier” was coined by Freddy Hutter of TRENDLines in the Oct/2011 update of PS-2500 (2011/10/17)

The “Price Spike Ceiling” threshold was coined by Freddy Hutter of TRENDLines in the February 2012 update of Barrel Meter Discussions & Gas Pump Discussions.  From Nov/2009 it was labelled the “Demand Destruction Barrier”

“Geopolitical Fear Premium” was coined in March 2008 & “Media Noise-du-jour” & “Stress Premium” were coined by Freddy Hutter of TRENDLines in the March 2012 & July 2012 updates of Barrel Meter Discussions.

Also, please visit our 22-model URR Estimates venue for a similar composite addressing of this topic.  Please email me if u can suggest a worthy Presentation candidate, new Outlooks, questions, comments or permissions.  Thanx to all that participate and provide feedback…

Tier-2 & Archived Invalidated Outlooks – The compilation above has at times included Outlooks which are still valid but have become stale-dated.  And some Outlooks have unconventional definitions or suspect due diligence.  I call these Tier-2 candidates.  Then there are situations where Tier-1 model practitioners’ releases included two or more scenarios.  I usually choose to depict the conservative case, leaving the other “optimistic” case in limbo.

Thus, presented below are our 2 depictions of 35 inferior Peak Oil Depletion Projections based on the data of:  Kjell Aleklett (Sweden), Ali Samsam Bakhtiari’s WOCAP (Iran), Pierre-René Bauquis (France), Brandt-Farrell (USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), William Carlson (USA), CERA (USA), Club of Rome (USA), Duncan-Youngquist (USA), EIA-Guy Caruso (USA), EIA-Glen Sweetnam (USA), Energy Watch Group/Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik (Germany), EU WETO/Poles (EU), Robert Hirsch (USA), 2 by M King Hubbert (USA), Sadad Ibrahim al Husseini (Saudi Arabia), IHS (France), ITPOES (UK), Rembrandt Koppelaar (Netherlands), Jean Laherrère (France), Ray Leonard of Kuwait Energy, Michael Lynch (USA), Leonardo  Maugeri (Italy-USA), Charles Maxwell (USA), Richard Miller (BP-UK), Peter Odell (Netherlands), OPEC (Vienna), Fredrik Robelius (Sweden), Royal Dutch Shell (Netherlands), Jeff Rubin (Canada), Nansen Saleri (USA), Matt Simmons (USA) & Wood Mackenzie (Scotland):

Trendlines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-2 Scenarios:  April 29 2013 delayed FreeVenue public release of Jan 29th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today’s revision downgrades the 2009 CERA outlook by Peter Jackson from Tier-1.

The CERA outlooks by Peter Jackson were introduced to our presentation in late 2005 and have consistently been the most optimistic of the Tier-1 scenarios.  Unfortunately the analysis methodology requires updates at least every three years and as such the 2009 version has been downgraded today to Tier-2 status.  Earnestly looking forward to an update…

Outlooks within the Tier-2 presentation are still viable forecasts but exhibit one or more deemed flaws:

Stale-dated:  CERA 2009, Pierre-René Bauquis 2008, EIA-Sweetnam 2008, EU WETO/POLES 2007, IHS 2007, Kuwait Energy-Leonard 2007, Robelius 2007, Wood Mackenzie 2007, EIA-Caruso 2005  & Lynch 1996

Poor reconciliation with URR – Low projected Peak and/or overly aggressive post-peak decline rate results in a future “dogleg”  to exhaust remaining resource:  Koppelaar 2009 (2030) & Robelius 2007 (2050)

Overly optimistic medium term targets – 2014 is only three years away.  Megaproject analysis suggests flow rate will be 92-mbd.  Considering practitioner differences wrt Surplus Capacity & Underlying Decline Observed, flow could be 97.9-mbd potentially albeit highly improbable.  Outlooks with deemed unachievable 2014 targets:  Brandt-Farrell 2008 (105.2mbd by 2014), IHS 2007 (104), Lynch 1996 (100), Wood Mackenzie 2007 (99.5) & Robelius 2007 (98.5)

Hail Mary Scenarios – Practitioner has a more conservative outlook that has been featured in Tier-1:  EIA-Caruso 2005, EU WETO/POLES 2007 (reference) & Royal Dutch Shell 2008 (blueprint)

Mathematical Models – Lack robustness to depict inferior non-conventional flows:  Carlson 2007

Inadequate robustness or Conjecture-based:  Laherrère 2012, Lynch 2012, Leonardo Maugeri 2012, Richard Miller 2012, Charles Maxwell 2011, Royal Dutch Shell 2011, ITPOES 2010, Hirsch 2009, Odell 2009 & Lynch 1996

Invalidated Outlooks in general forecast low Peak Rates and/or harsh post-peak Decline Rates.  Typically they are constructed on URR/EUR platforms less than the geology-based Worst Case Scenario

Current Production exceeds Outlook Peak Rate:  HK Hubbert 1956 (34-Mbd), Matt Simmons (84.4), Samsam Bakhtiari (81), EWG-LBST (85), Kjell Aleklett (85) , Jeff Rubin (85), Colin Campbell (66 & 86), Robert Hirsch (85), Jean Laherrère (87) & Sadad al Husseini (87), Rembrandt Koppelaar (89).

Outlook’s Peak Date surpassed:  HK Hubbert 1956, HK Hubbert 1974, Colin Campbell 1989, Duncan-Youngquist 1999, Samsam Bakhtiari 2003, Matt Simmons 2007, EWG-LBST 2008, Kjell Aleklett 2009, Jeff Rubin 2009, Colin Campbell 1989 & 2011

Historic Tracking of (ASPO-IE) Colin Campbell Depletion Model:  1989-2011

March 28 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 27th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today’s update adds Colin Campbell’s May/2011 Outlook.  It re-confirms his position All Liquids peaked @ 85-mbd in 2008 (despite EIA data to the contrary) and is founded on a 2,52334-Gb URR (up 89-Gb from last year).  The chart tracks all the production profile revisions over his career.  Its forecasts of Peak Year have ranged from 1989 to 2012.  In fact, December marks the 22nd anniversary of Campbell’s initial All Liquids declaration that oil had indeed peaked.  To be accurate … a sub-peak.  In Dec/1989, he declared All Liquids production had reached its physical limits @ 66-mbd and would never again attain the 67-Mbd Peak back in 1979.

Campbell’s estimates for Peak Rate span from that virgin call of a 66 Mbd sub-peak in 1989 to his 2008 forecast of a 97 Mbd peak in 2010.  His underlying All Liquids URR estimates range from 1575-Gb (1989) to 2900-Gb (2002).  TRENDLiners may have notice my last three annual chart revisions have excluded Campbell’s 1991, 1996, 1997 & 1998 projections.  I determined those studies forecast Regular Conventional Oil … not All Liquids, and only led to unnecessary confusion.  His current (2011) forecast for RCO can be compared to the only three other such projections for light sweet crude at my Scenarios venue.

The highlighted years of distinction are: 2008 (highest peak 97-Mbd), 2002 (2900-Gb URR high), 2011 (current update), 2004 (Colin Campbell’s dark days call:  80-Mbd peak coming in 2006) & 1989 (Campbell’s initial 66-Mbd scenario which declared that All Liquids would never breach its 1979 record).  Because the Depletion Model newsletter graphic ends in 2050, it was not readily apparent that five of Campbell’s early All Liquids projections failed to exhaust his designated URR.  The 300-yr outlook resolution view of this chart exposes the errant methodology of the Depletion Model in 1999, Y2k, 2002, 2003 & 2004.  These profiles have been corrected via compensating plateaus or “doglegs”.

See how the 2010 ASPO Depletion Model measures up against other failed outlooks in our Invalidated Scenarios presentation & compared agin Tier-1 URR estimates.

click here to see how the latest (2011) Campbell Depletion Model measures up against the only other three studies addressing Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude)

click chart for full discussion & more at the Peak Oil History venue…

click chart for the May 2013 Update charts, table & guidance …

Regular Conventional Oil Scenarios

2030:  Colin Campbell (38-Mbd) vs Freddy Hutter (52-Mbd)

March 24 2013 delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 24th MemberVenue guidance ~ Over the years, there have been only 4 modellers worldwide who have published long term production profiles for Regular Conventional Oil … the light sweet crude:  Albert Bartlett (USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), M King Hubbert (USA) & TRENDLines’ own Freddy Hutter (Yukon Canada).

Hubbert‘s initial RCO thoughtful graphic bell-curve presentation commenced the general discourse on Peak Oil in 1956.  It’s Y2k Peak Date (35-Mbd) was intuitive but the model was flawed by its lowly 1,250-Gb estimate of URR.  His 1974 update boosted the resource base to 2,000-Gb, a figure that is still relevant by modern standards, but his second projection and its 1995 111-Mbd peak were truncated by OPEC intervention the following year.

Also sporting a 2-Tb URR was the 1998 Bartlett model with its forecast of a 73-Mbd peak in 2004.

In actual fact, RCO extraction peaked in May 2005 @ 69-mbd and it appears the midpoint of its (2,005-Gb) URR/EUR was crossed several months thereafter (Oct/2006).  RCO production declined at an annual rate of 2.2% from 2006-2009 to 63-Mbd, but has since been in plateau.  2012 extraction was a 64-Mbd pace.

Jean Laherrère & Colin Campbell have been the sector’s most stalwart peak oil study practitioners.  Both have openly shared their annual analysis with fellow modellers for over two decades.  In May 2011, I coaxed Campbell to come out of retirement for a second time for another update.  Campbell‘s 2011 Depletion Model continues to extend RCO‘s dramatic 2.2%/yr post-peak decline rate thru to 2030.  It also increased RCO’s URR by 84-Gb to 2,047-Gb … a career high estimate for Colin.

Conversely, the Hutter Peak Scenario-2500 (the sole active model) has trimmed last year’s URR estimate by another 33-Gb to 2,005-Gb.  While Campbell forecasts the annual flow rate will deteriorate to 38-Mbd by 2030, Hutter takes the position 52-Mbd is more probable.  On the longer term, whereas Campbell predicts the annual Decline Rate softens after 2050, Hutter sees major resource constraint after 2066.

As a 72% component of All Liquids, the short-term demise of Regular Conventional Oil will determine whether Peak Oil is imminent or has another 18 years to play out.  The PS-2500 model determined in 2008 the steep RCO decline (2.2% 2006-2009) was not the result of rapid depletion but rather a mirage masked by shifts in global Surplus Capacity.  As such, Hutter has been stalwart in his position RCO extraction had entered a 62-Mbd plateau which will hold ’til 2023, thereby forming a solid foundation for non-conventionals to take All Liquids to ever increasing heights.  With light sweet crude rising to 64-Mbd in 2012, the universe appears to be unfolding as it should…

Using the proper historic narrow definition of Regular Conventional Oil, these production profiles exclude NGL, processing gains & the non-conventionals (Bitumen, X-heavy, Arctic, Deep Sea, Biofuels, GTL, CTL & Kerogen).  Hence, we have excluded the wider “conventional” projections by Guseo, Korpela, Kuwait University, Laherrère  & Walsh.  RCO comprises only 72% of All Liquids production today, and it is clear NGL & the non-conventionals play an ever increasing role.  The PS-2500 model projects RCO will fall to less than 50% of All Liquids in 2031 … a significant threshold for posterity.