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Page added on May 15, 2015
Peak Oil: A Graphic Story
Australian artist Stuart MacMillan has spent over 700 hours creating this amazing cartoon of the life and work of M.King Hubbert. Below are just 2 images of the 139 that make up the full story.
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For more about the project, or to find out how to support Stuart’s work read his blog and watch the video.
6 Comments on "Peak Oil: A Graphic Story"
rockman on Fri, 15th May 2015 8:10 am
Cute but need to add the standard correction. He specifically says in his report that the rather mature trends he analyzed would see peak production in the early 70’s and then continue to decline. And he was correct even to today. He also specifically said that his analysis did not include the development of new trends in the future. And while he mentioned “bell shaped curves” he also specifically pointed out that being bell-shaped doesn’t mean being symmetrical: his bell of the trends he analyzed had a very slow tapering tail. And that has also been proven to be very accurate: those are the tens of thousands of stripper oil wells that result in the average (even taking into account the recent surge in US production) US oil well producing less then 20 bopd.
agramante on Fri, 15th May 2015 3:40 pm
Yup, the bell curve is certainly mutable: skewness, kurtosis, and the like. The general premise still holds nevertheless. And that overall approach applies to each new trend, including offshore and fracking.
Nony on Sat, 16th May 2015 12:04 pm
I don’t see those caveats that Rock mentions within Hubbert’s 1956 paper.
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf
Also, if his predictions really do have that caveat, than what good are they? They sure become a lot less scary. If anything, it is conceding the point to cornies who say, “don’t worry, we’ll invent something new”.
rockman on Sat, 16th May 2015 3:34 pm
“…if his predictions really do have that caveat”. A bit of common sense is required. Everyone who thinks Hubbert had knowledge of the Deep Water GOM oil fields raise your hand. Same if you think he knew about the Deep Water Brazil trend. Same for the invention of tech to develop the shales horizontally and the recovery from the Canadian oil sands. Hmm…I don’t see any hands. LOL.
Unless one believes he was clairvoyant exactly how would his analysis include those plays? Read his paper again: he based his projection on the EXISTING US oil trends. That is the peak production of those trends he correctly predicted.
Just as one might predict the peak of any of the new plays such as the DW GOM, DW Brazil, EFS etc. But not to take anything away from Hubbert, that will be much easier to do once those plays reach the same level of maturity that he based his prediction upon.
Hubbert was a geologist and statistician…not a reader of chicken entrails predicting the future unknowns. LOL
GregT on Sat, 16th May 2015 3:46 pm
Nony is just trying to stir up shit. He knows very well what Hubbert presented, and he also knows that Hubbert was correct.
Nony isn’t an idiot, as much as he tries to make us all believe that he is. Stop screwing around with people Nony. You are not adding anything constructive to the conversation, and you are doing nothing but dig yourself further into depression. Give it up already.
Nony on Sat, 16th May 2015 4:27 pm
Now, you’re not citing specific text of caveats, but making a supposition, Rock. Did he or did he not discuss the issue of new sources? I’ve actually read his “new continents” paras and thought about them more deeply than you have, mudlogger.