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Page added on October 10, 2015
Oil companies face difficulties replacing reserves
It’s getting harder for western oil companies looking beyond American shores to replace the proven reserves that are the industry’s lifeblood.
The shale boom has kept Houston’s oil hub and smaller firms well supplied for now. But some of the industry’s giants are readying massive steel armadas to explore deeper waters, and developing technologies for probing regions and depths beyond the frontier of the known oil world after decades of exile from giant oil fields owned by authoritarian regimes. Some costly expeditions have failed; an oil-market collapse delayed others.
Royal Dutch Shell’s $7 billion bust in the Arctic is the latest Big Oil example of the problem.
The quest for oil in Alaska’s offshore waters – which Shell announced Sept. 28 it was terminating after a test well failed to find enough oil to justify further investment – illustrated the lengths to which oil companies will go to replace reserves that fuel future revenue streams.
“Why are they doing mega projects? Because they have to,” said Dennis Cassidy, managing director at AlixPartners and co-head of the firm’s oil, gas and chemicals practice. “But the challenge is so mind boggling.”
To keep their reserves level last year, the seven biggest western oil companies would have had to replace all 18.4 million barrels of oil equivalent a day they produced – roughly the same amount the United States consumed daily.
Instead, Exxon Mobil Corp., Shell, Chevron Corp., BP, Total, Statoil and Eni’s combined reserves fell by nearly 1.5 billion barrels last year, the steepest decline since 2004, in part because new oil and gas discoveries have been getting smaller and more scarce.
“Overall, they’re not the monsters we had in yesteryear,” said Bob Fryklund, chief upstream strategist at research firm IHS. “We’re in a low cycle, and we haven’t seen one of this magnitude since 1994.”
IHS data show the oil industry found about 10 billion new barrels of oil equivalent in 2014, the lowest in two decades. Last year’s haul was dwarfed by the nearly 60 billion barrels the industry discovered in 2010 and the more than 80 billion barrels in 2004.
Analysts believe the industry could still make big discoveries in the Middle East and Latin America, but the easy-to-find oil has been spoken for in North America and West Africa.
Fryklund said the oil industry needs to replace 30 million barrels of crude a day by 2040 – even as a continuing oil price slump delays projects that might have helped reach the goal.
Indeed, the oil industry only counts among its proven reserves barrels it can extract economically and with its current technology. That figure often declines with oil prices, forcing companies to write down some of the value of their oil fields.
Energy research firm Wood Mackenzie estimates the petroleum industry has canceled or put off spending $220 billion on 46 major projects that would have delivered about 20 billion barrels in reserves from places including West Africa, Canada, Nigeria and the Gulf of Mexico.
And with oil and gas prices expected to remain low next year, JPMorgan Chase believes global exploration and production spending will shrink by another 10 percent to 15 percent in 2016, on top of this year’s 23 percent spending cut.
The world is a long way from running out of oil: Its proven reserves increased by 62 percent from 2000 to 2014, but much of that growth has been in places where western oil companies are often unwelcome.
For example, Venezuela’s proven reserves have quadrupled since 2000, giving the South American country the world’s biggest oil resource of 298.4 billion barrels in reserves, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
But for western companies, drilling there has proven treacherous. Venezuela’s government nationalized ConocoPhillips assets in 2007, leaving it little to show for a $3.1 billion investment in major oil fields there.
Other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are similarly inaccessible.
“The easy oil has been found or is locked up in OPEC nations that aren’t open to western integrated companies,” said Lysle Brinker, director of equity research in the upstream group at IHS Energy.
The portion of the planet’s oil outside the grip of authoritarian governments has been shrinking since 1971, according to BP, when Libya, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and others began taking control of their assets and limiting the west’s ownership of resources in the Middle East.
The oil industry has found one super giant field this year, Eni’s massive natural gas discovery off the coast of Egypt, the largest find ever in the Mediterranean Sea. Last year, oil companies didn’t find any fields with more than 1 billion barrels.
“That whole way of doing business is just so much more challenging than it has been historically,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, executive director for energy and sustainability at the University of California at Davis. “I’m either going to go to a far flung place like Shell did, or I could go someplace with big resources and lots of geopolitical issues.”
But the biggest reasons oil companies have struggled with mega projects are rising costs, overruns and schedule disruptions. Cassidy of AlixPartners estimates less than 10 percent of oil mega projects stay on budget and can bring up as much oil and gas as an operator initially expects.
“The vast majority of these projects overrun on the cost side and under-deliver on the production side,” he said. “The ones that do hit, hit big.”
IHS’ Brinker said the cost of everything oil and gas companies use in big projects – steel, copper, cement, high tech equipment and labor – has climbed significantly over the last decade because much of the industry was in a rush to build new facilities at the same time, driving up demand and straining supply chains.
Average returns for major upstream investments by Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, BP and Total sank from a peak of 30 percent in 2008 to about 8 percent in 2014, IHS data shows.
In 2013 and 2014, it cost an average $59 to add a barrel of oil equivalent to a producer’s reserves and later produce it after equipment has been built, almost three times the $22 a barrel it cost in 2003 and 2004, according to a study by Morgan Stanley and The Boston Consulting Group.
One of the most prominent examples of a project in overtime is in Kazakhstan, where western oil companies are plowing $30 billion more than they initially expected into the massive Kashagan oil field. They’ve faced a series of delays because of blowouts and other setbacks, and total project costs have come up to $50 billion.
In Australia, Chevron’s Gorgon liquefied natural gas project has blown past its expected $37 billion total cost to more than $54 billion because of higher labor and material costs.
One of Big Oil’s problems: bigness. Consultants say project managers often become entangled in the expensive whims of engineers, changing orders and redesigning facilities well into a project’s schedule. Complacency about costs can take hold, which can be difficult to correct in large organizations.
But even now, with oil executives touting new initiates to cut costs through the ongoing downturn, few are making structural changes to bring down costs permanently or standardizing different components used in major projects, relying on suppliers to cut costs, shed jobs and provide equipment and service discounts.
“The major oil companies haven’t been known for having a cost conscious culture – they’ve been focused on volume and schedule,” said John Hartung, a partner at the Boston Consulting Group in Houston. “All will talk about rebasing their costs. But only a handful are making more structural changes in resetting their cost structures on capital projects.”
In some respects, the Big Oil model has served the majors well in the downturn. They’ve weathered the oil bust much better than smaller energy producers that don’t have their own refining and petrochemical plants. Those operations do well when feedstock for making gasoline, plastics and other products are cheap.
But the oil bust is still meaningful to their future growth. Investors have wiped out more than $180 billion from Exxon Mobil and Chevron’s combined market value since the oil collapse began last summer.
“The ones that do make structural changes are going to be better positioned to compete,” Hartung said. “You don’t get a chance to do this very often.”
At a recent industry conference in Houston, Chevron CEO John Watson acknowledged that “in the short run it’s going to be ugly,” but added that his company and its rivals still have resources to develop in such areas as dense shale and deep water.
“I think the future is still pretty good,” Watson said.
67 Comments on "Oil companies face difficulties replacing reserves"
onlooker on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 8:28 am
“I think the future is still pretty good,” Watson said. Cannot leave out that requisite claim can we haha. The oil companies and governments have been mapping and know where the easily accessible oil is mostly in the Middle East. As the late Matthew Simmons wrote in “Twilight in the Desert”, Saudi Arabia is key their peak is the worlds peak. So thus we have this current dynamic of oil companies needing to search far and wide for other somewhat accessible oil or resorting to unconventional and economically unsustainable oil. All this signaling the era of cheap oil is over. It is all quite clear. What also should be quite clear is that the future is NOT pretty good as Oil is the lifeblood of the world economy and its decline both geologically and in terms of its viability in an economic sense puts us squarely on the track of contraction worldwide.
steve on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 9:20 am
yes but the masses won’t get it. I see a deep financial crash very soon in our “the world” future..if not world war triggered by some “incident” in the middle east. I keep hearing this talk of how $100 a barrel of oil is not possible…I just roll my eyes….what is fiat but a manipulated currency it can be anything the “leaders” want it to be but I believe the ability to control that is slowly coming to an end. Unfortunately it will make the United States the last man standing; a country that is not acting in the best interest of the people of the world but the interest of status quo.
onlooker on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 9:32 am
you know Steve it is in a way understandable that the masses do not get it. How many people have the time and the initiative to search out this information that demonstrates that the world may collapse in the not to distant future. We here on this site are a distinct subspecies haha. We wished to know
James Tupper on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 9:32 am
“IHS data show the oil industry found about 10 billion new barrels of oil equivalent in 2014, the lowest in two decades. Last year’s haul was dwarfed by the nearly 60 billion barrels the industry discovered in 2010 and the more than 80 billion barrels in 2004.”
But guys, peak oil is like, totally like a conspiracy. You should totally believe me, I like work for Exxon.
“For example, Venezuela’s proven reserves have quadrupled since 2000, giving the South American country the world’s biggest oil resource of 298.4 billion barrels in reserves, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.”
In the 1980’s OPEC changed rules regarding reserves and production, member states could only produce as a ratio of their reserves. Therefore many member states in OPEC magically doubled, tripled, and even quadrupled their reserves overnight. Which caused other member states to capitulate and do the same thing to keep their production. We actually have no good idea of how much oil is left, I would guess a trillion barrels. But how much of that is high quality crude is unknown, any good stuff left will be used in the next couple years.
“Last year, oil companies didn’t find any fields with more than 1 billion barrels.”
But like peak oil is false, we have enough oil for a century! – This is what people actually believe
“In some respects, the Big Oil model has served the majors well in the downturn. They’ve weathered the oil bust much better than smaller energy producers that don’t have their own refining and petrochemical plants.”
They should pre-face this by saying, FOR NOW.
penury on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 9:37 am
When you scrape the bottom of the barrel, you generally get the scrapes, when your customers run out of money so do you. The world is bankrupt. The oil companies are mostly in debt. G20 nations have no economies left. Look at the truth. War will not save the economies of the U.S. or Europe. The currency war is responsible for several nations failing economies and more will follow. Humans (as a group) can no longer afford the energy that is needed to provide growth, we can not even maintain stasis.
gdubya on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 9:47 am
I’m so happy to acknowledge my tax dollars going to exploration funding so that the oil companies can find more reserves to add to the 80% (my personal guess? 100%) we already need to leave unburnt. Here, mr Tillerson, take my $1000 in tax to prop up your $90,000 per day salary; recognition of your personal value to economic growth at the expense of the biosphere.
Once we have a continuous supply of billions of climate refugees settling into the first world & consuming oil & other resources at the correct rate the economy should resume its infinite growth.
makati1 on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 9:47 am
Steve, I would disagree that the Us will be “the last man standing”. Why do you believe that fiction? The Us has nothing of value left. Not even it’s people. It does have $18 – $200+ Trillion in debt, depending on if you count money owed to it’s citizens. (103+% of GDP)
Whereas, Russia has about $250 Billion with a B., the largest country on earth, and lots of natural resources to tap with half the of the population of the US. (14% to GDP)
And Whereas, China has about $5 Trillion in debt, but also has about $3.5 Trillion in reserves. (41% to GDP) Granted China has problems, but nothing they have not had and survived before.
Take a look at:
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-world-map-of-debt/
Or this:
http://countryeconomy.com/national-debt
You can print Zimbabwe style, but we know how that ends. A trillion dollars won’t buy a loaf of bread.
onlooker on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 9:50 am
Yes and the problem also it two-fold. As because of reporting requirements of reserves, reserves have continuously increased in the last few years for OPEC countries that is rather counter-intuitive as we know no large oil discoveries have been uncovered. Even worse we have to take the word of OPEC countries as per this quote
” Has OPEC misled us about the size of its oil reserves? The short answer is probably. The long answer is that currently, there is no way to know for sure.
The next question we should ask is: Does it matter? The answer is most definitely yes. OPEC, short for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, currently claims that its 12 members hold 81.3 percent of the world’s oil reserves. And, with few exceptions the world believes them. Trouble is these reserves “are not verified by independent auditors,” according to a study (PDF) done by the U.S. Government Accountability Office, the nonpartisan investigative arm of the U.S. Congress. OPEC reserves are simply self-reported by each country. Essentially, OPEC’s members are asking us to take their word for it. But should we?
rockman on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 9:54 am
And again some discovers decades old reality and tries to present it as an original thought. So for those few who haven’t heard the Rockman’s story.
Over 40 years ago his firsf mentor at Mobil Oil clearly explained PO…what the oil patch has always called the “reserve replacement problem”. Over the next 4 decades every pubco the Rockman worked was obssesed with the RRP. It was typical for promotions, raises and bonuses to be paid on basis of increasing booked reserves much more so then the profitabilty. Without going into detail the Rockman was involved in many projects that had questionable value or even negative. But the booked reserves. Booked reserves that had to be audited by indelendent third parties. The Rockman has earned a reputation for squeezing a lot of reeerves out of those auditors.
The domestic RRP also explained why Big Oil started focusing on foreign projects over domestic ones decades ago. It also explains why there much few US Big Oils today then 40 years ago: the only way to boost domestic reserves was to acquire other big companies. And it continues today. A few years ago ExxonMobil (which used to be 2 Big Oils) acquired XTO. Some folks said to acquired their expertise in shale development. So how many stories have we read about XOM being a big shale player? OTOH in the year of that acquisition the XTO represented 80+% of XOM’s reserve replacement that year.
The Big Pubcos have no choice but to explore for the expensive high risk reserves: there aren’t enough smaller targets to meet their goals. And even if there were Big Oil doesn’t have the manpower or time to chase them.
Boat on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 9:58 am
rock,
That may be true at $45 oil but at $100 there will be fracking all over the world.
Boat on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 9:59 am
Boat,
Let’s not forget the nat gas explosion around the world. It takes much longer to build out the infrastructure but the giant fuel source is taking over.
rockman on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 10:00 am
James – Understand that the “reserve”‘ numbers are also a function of the current price of oil. For instance many of those 2010 PUD reserves (Proved UnDeloped) disappeared from the books as the price of oil fell.
Davy on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 10:01 am
Pen, I feel a better description than bankrupt is we are becoming poor. All those people with retirement investments don’t really have a retirement. The rich are really not as rich as the numbers say. Nations really can’t live up to their promises to their people. When you base your net worth on an abstract vision of what the future is going to produce and it is not going to be produced what does that mean? You got it, an unhappy ending.
Davy on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 10:06 am
Too bad dog paw. Your brics are dead man walking. The US is too but not as bad. World events and numbers don’t lie. I love when you are hot and bothered over winners and losers. We are all going down and when we do those 4.5BIL people in Asia will be sorry looking. What is so funny is you are one of them. Dog paw think of me when you are hungry.
Boat on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 10:07 am
rock,
Exellent point. Reserves are a running tally.
onlooker on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 10:11 am
All this reminds me of Smoke and Mirrors. We inflate Reserves to give a certain optimistic impression. We lend and create money wildly to keep the machine humming. Yet all this is fictional it is delaying dealing with the realities. Now the problem is this gigantic smoke and mirrors bubble seems getting close to bursting as all players wise up to the true realities they have been trying to postpone seeing or dealing with, suddenly nobody wishes to play anymore or can play anymore because the intrinsic confidence in the rules or limits is gone. Game over. If I may add we are like an alcoholic who does not wish to become sober as the reality is too grim.
BobInget on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 10:24 am
Post more often, Onlooker.
Watch ‘Big Oil’ that once disdained most of Canadian reserves as too little too meager,
invade ‘Bay Street’ looking for reserves.
Every single one of Canada’s mid sized oil companies had the shit kicked out from under. Suncor traded stock for Canadian Oil Sands, Imperial owned by Exxon, will be ‘bad will hunting’ making it appear oil-napping will stay Canadian. Instead of a $59 cost per barrel,
PRODUCING oil companies can be had for a fraction.. (Maybe $27) Even more insidious,
most also are ‘burdened’ with natural gas, often exceeding their oil reserves.
WHEN Western Canada begins to ship crude and finished product East, in no longer needed, repurposed, gas pipelines. Eastern Canada now imports ample US supplies. Few people seem to be impressed when I point out the obvious, what goes East ain’t m South no longer.
What should you do? WE are slowly transitioning away from oil to natural gas as feed stock for point of use, fuel cell power generation, subsequent electric powered transportation, home power.
If you have any surplus funds look at the grand set of beleaguered Canadian oil companies on offer, NYSE. Do your own DD. This is not a
stock market website.
steve on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 10:30 am
Mak maybe last man standing is probably not a good phrase …maybe dead man walking….but if you look around the world the U.s will be the last country of resort. I don’t like it either but it is the reality. Project out another 35 years and you will be right; also you and I will be dead.
Davy on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 10:54 am
Steve, the U.S. will not go down easy like some other countries. It will go down hard when globalism falls apart. The U.S. is especially in consumption overshoot per its reliance on a stable and strong global economy. The U.S. future is dependent on that more than anything.
Kenz300 on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 11:06 am
Big OIL has its collective heads stuck in the sand……
The hand writing is on the wall for fossil fuels…
If big OIL is to survive they will need to change their business models and move away from being a one trick pony and embrace alternative energy sources.
Solar and Wind Just Passed Another Big Turning Point
http://bloom.bg/1WK34MZ
onlooker on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 11:06 am
Exactly if the US goes down so does the entire world. We are the consumers of last resort, the currency of last resort, the military arbiter of last resort. In short we are the indispensable nation. I am not saying that is a good thing, just saying that is the reality.
Plantagenet on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 12:00 pm
Davy’s suggestion that globalism is about to “fall apart” doesn’t match current reality. Out in the real world Obama is close to getting the TPP—a vast expansion of globalism.
Cheers!
onlooker on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 12:02 pm
Plant with all due respect that is a desire for expansion of globalism not the same as actually pulling it off.
ghung on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 12:10 pm
Plant; “Out in the real world Obama is close to getting the TPP—a vast expansion of globalism.”
As usual, simplistic, and ignores numerous externalities. Globalism requires a global system of buyers and sellers, along with a lot of other things, virtually all of which are coming under increasing stress, masked, in part, by central bank policies, ZIRP, and a race-to-the-bottom trend of currency manipulations. TPP, if implemented, will be a last futile attempt to squeeze the last few drops of wealth from consumers and the global resource base. Nothing more than a hail-fucking-Mary.
rockman on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 12:12 pm
Boat – Maybe $100/bbl will bring the US shale plays back to life. But globally? We had $100/bbl oil for a while which led to testing foreign shales. And for the most part those efforts, like in Poland, were abandoned when oil was still at $100/bbl…or even a little better.
Again remember that “shales” in general don’t produce commercial oil. There are a very few specific shale formations that have been shown to have commercial potential. All the dozens of different US shale formations have been tested with frac’d horizontal wells and yet 80%+ of US shale oil production still comes from just two formations. For instance there are numerous shales in the exact same area as the Eagle Ford Shale and none have turned into booming oil plays. And that includes several shale formations that companies have to drill thru to get to the EFS.
Davy on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 12:34 pm
Planter, you are such a prude. What do you know about globalism? All you ever talk about is gluts and Obama. Your constant OBama tirades are so boring and lame. Thank god you have not mentioned glut for weeks.
Davy on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 12:39 pm
Onlooker, just as the U.S. Is indispensable per your examples so is the rest of the global system to the U.S. The inconvenient truth for the anti-Americans is without us they fold too. The same is true for the American flag waivers. Both groups want winners and losers. There will be losers and those losers will be all of us. We will all be hungry and dying together soon. That is when we will find real brotherhood when we are starving and dying together.
onlooker on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 12:45 pm
So true Davy. The whole friggin worldwide system is so interlocked and integrated that it all will simultaneously coming crashing down. We all hope the later the better but it could crash any day now.
BobInget on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 1:17 pm
Somewhat off topic:
ack in 1990, as the debate over climate change was heating up, a dissident shareholder petitioned the board of Exxon, one of the world’s largest oil companies, imploring it to develop a plan to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from its production plants and facilities.
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The board’s response: Exxon had studied the science of global warming and concluded it was too murky to warrant action. The company’s “examination of the issue supports the conclusions that the facts today and the projection of future effects are very unclear.”
Yet in the far northern regions of Canada’s Arctic frontier, researchers and engineers at Exxon and Imperial Oil were quietly incorporating climate change projections into the company’s planning and closely studying how to adapt the company’s Arctic operations to a warming planet.
Ken Croasdale, senior ice researcher for Exxon’s Canadian subsidiary, was leading a Calgary-based team of researchers and engineers that was trying to determine how global warming could affect Exxon’s Arctic operations and its bottom line.
Top, the loss of sea ice due to climate change has taken a toll on wildlife. (Mike Lockhart / U.S. Geological Survey, Associated Press) Bottom, rapidly thawing permafrost is changing the landscape in Canada’s Northwest Territories. (Scott Zolkos / The Canadian Press)
“Certainly any major development with a life span of say 30-40 years will need to assess the impacts of potential global warming,” Croasdale told an engineering conference in 1991. “This is particularly true of Arctic and offshore projects in Canada, where warming will clearly affect sea ice, icebergs, permafrost and sea levels.”
Between 1986 and 1992, Croasdale’s team looked at both the positive and negative effects that a warming Arctic would have on oil operations, reporting its findings to Exxon headquarters in Houston and New Jersey.
The good news for Exxon, he told an audience of academics and government researchers in 1992, was that “potential global warming can only help lower exploration and development costs” in the Beaufort Sea.
Mike616 on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 1:20 pm
There will be Vastly Reduced Need for OIl in the next 10-15 years.
Why did Shell pull out of the Arctic, there will be NO MARKET for oil in 15 years.
Some in the industry still graphing out linear growth for solar and wind. Yet, this year solar and wind are cheaper than natural gas in all 15 US States.
That’s This Year.
Now, look at the geometric growth charts for solar and wind and project 15 years.
Do you burn 100 dollar bills lighting your cigar? Because that’s what any long term future investment in oil is, burning money for NO RETURN.
Mike616 on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 1:21 pm
Solar now cheaper than natural gas in ALL 50 States. ( Correction ).
BobInget on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 1:40 pm
another anti complacency news event: OT
ABIDJAN, Oct 10 (Reuters) – Thirty-eight people, including five attackers, were killed and another 51 were wounded on Saturday in a series of suicide bombings in a town in Chad suspected to be the work of Nigeria’s Boko Haram Islamist militant group, a local government official said.
Witnesses in Baga Sola, a border town on Lake Chad, reported three explosions in the town’s market and a refugee camp. A hospital source confirmed the death toll given by local sub-prefect Dimoya Souapebe.
(Reporting by Madjiasra Nako; Writing by Joe Bavier; Editing by Kevin Liffey)
Posted note:
Nigeria, an OPEC member, experiencing one such terrorist attack every other day.
Turkey…..
“Worst single terrorist attack in Turkey’s history”
ANKARA, Turkey (AP/HuffPost) — Two bomb explosions targeted a peace rally Saturday by leftist and Kurdish activists in the Turkish capital of Ankara, killing 86 people and wounding 186, the country’s health minister said.
The explosions occurred seconds apart outside Ankara’s main train station as hundreds were gathering for the rally, organized by Turkey’s public sector workers’ union and other civic society groups. The rally aimed to call for increased democracy and an end to the renewed violence between Kurdish rebels and Turkish security forces.
“I tried to help but everyone was in pieces,” Ismet, a 56-year-old Turkish animator who survived the attack, told The WorldPost at the scene, still covered in the blood of other people. “I tried to help the man next to me but there were no limbs to carry him.”
Seconds after the blast, Ismet stumbled around in confusion, going from body to body to see if anyone was still alive. He frantically searched for his wife and child, both of whom he found unharmed in the carnage. Police then doused people scrambling to help the wounded with tear gas, several survivors told The WorldPost
Iraq, five days ago:
At least 63 people have been killed in a series of car bomb attacks in Iraq, police and medical sources say.
One of the largest bombs was in the Shia-majority town of Khalis in the eastern province of Diyala, where at least 40 people were killed.
Another attack in the town of al-Zubair, about 15km (9 miles) south-west of the oil town of Basra, is reported to have killed at least 10 people.
A third bomb in Baghdad killed at least 13 people, police said.
At least 25 others were wounded in the blast in the capital’s north-eastern neighbourhood of Husseiniya, according to Associated Press.
Posted note: You must understand, these attacks are intended to destabilize governments. Iraq and Nigeria are beyond repair, IMO. There are now TWO MILLION Syrian refugees in Turkey. That’s destabilizing in itself.
ISIL has intentions to rule all three, Turkey, Iraq and Nigeria. Turkey is a pipelineastan nation.
If ISIL manages to create a failed state in Turkey
Europe’s oil and gas supplies are at risk.
onlooker on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 1:48 pm
this is actually the one hope I still hold out for in the US Mike. That we can somehow transition from the oil dependence to renewables. However, with each passing day it becomes more difficult as cheap easily accessible oil becomes more scarce. We need oil to full construct and develop suitable alternatives. Time is fast running out. The whole transition itself would be very complicated and would require an unprecedented level of cooperation as well as competent, wise and benevolent leadership. When was the last time we used these adjectives to describe our politicians? Now I only entertain this because we are still endowed in the US with a relatively good population to resource ratio and because we do have infrastructure already in place as well as know how to implement such a transition. The big question is willingness and ability for quick implementation of all processes to transition. I see it all as almost too difficult but I think we are one of the few rich countries with any chance of pulling it off. As for poor countries they have their own set of problems not the least of which is feeding themselves. On my optimistic days I can almost believe this, on my pessimistic you do not want to know.
shortonoil on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 2:07 pm
By our calculations 84% of the theoretically extractable oil has already been removed. The last 16% will be orders of magnitude more difficult to extract than was the first 16%.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
Boat on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 3:06 pm
Davy,
The same is true for the American flag waivers. There will be losers and those losers will be all of us.
You don’t talk for all Americans. I am an American flag waver but I wish no other country Ill or want them to collapse. I am more mature than that. Hate will produce nothing but hate.
Boat on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 3:08 pm
O’l short is getting more extreme with each passing day. So tell us short, how many days left of oil according to that calculator.
By our calculations 84% of the theoretically extractable oil has already been removed. The last 16% will be orders of magnitude more difficult to extract than was the first 16%.
Boat on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 3:27 pm
onlooker,
this is actually the one hope I still hold out for in the US Mike. That we can somehow transition from the oil dependence to renewables. However, with each passing day it becomes more difficult as cheap easily accessible oil becomes more scarce.
When they passed the pipe you apparently took to many hits. There is world wide record amounts of oil being consumed and at the same time the glut is still so big drilling rigs are still being taken off line. This is after almost 2,500 drilling rigs are inactive. Entire nations are being hurt by the prices. Onlooker, how could think oil is scarce lol I do remember the days of the neon posters black lights, incense, flower power and lots of pot.
Davy on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 3:29 pm
Boater, not talkin for all Americans but I am still takin at you. You are an oblivious cornucopian who trips over his graphs and links especially when he tries to go head to head with short.
Boat on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 3:44 pm
Thats because Davey you don’t know 3% growth from recession. lol And you picked the 3% number. lol Never seen such a stubborn idiot.
ghung on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 3:53 pm
Boat said “By our calculations 84% of the theoretically extractable oil has already been removed. The last 16% will be orders of magnitude more difficult to extract than was the first 16%.”
By your calculations, Boat? Changing your tune?
BobInget on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 3:55 pm
UNCONFIRMEFD:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/russian-jets-shot-down-in-turkey/article/2573848
Russian Jet shot down by Turkey for violating
airspace.
If true, this may be a planned provocation.
Turkey, as you all know is NATO.
Sleep well me hardies.
ghung on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 4:04 pm
I read somewhere the other day that the Russian Ambassador to Turkey had been called in numerous times; warnings about Russian aircraft violating Turkish airspace. Seems Putin didn’t take the warnings seriously,, or did he? Sacrificing a Knight to lure NATO into making a stupid move?
Boat on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 4:29 pm
Bob,
It would be fun to be a fly on the wall as Putin finds out what it is to be in the Middle East. Will he ride another tiger?
ghung on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 4:37 pm
Russian jet ‘shot down by Turkish forces after planes violated country’s airspace on Syrian bombing run’
Apneaman on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 4:38 pm
Bob, I’ll believe it when I see the pictures and the Russians confirm it. Until then it is just one more “unconfirmed” piece of western propaganda. You know like the Russian military convoys to Ukraine or the shooting down of the passenger Jet. Funny how they never show us pictures from the multi million dollar military and CIA spy satellites that can read your licence plate from space. Trust us….it’s for your own good. Many high end commercial satellites with powerful cameras too that always some how just missed these events or ran into cloud cover.
Apneaman on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 4:40 pm
Bob, you can go on the free version of Google earth and look at a shot of your house, car and grandkids playing in the yard. That’s low end el cheapo compared to the best stuff.
onlooker on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 4:43 pm
So true what AP states. Western propaganda and so called news is so refined and crafty in giving us “their” version and giving the impression that no other version exists or can exist. Western news is not news but propaganda and canards. They are Orwellian as you can get as they have many in the US completely fooled and dumbed down. Maybe that is why I am on this site, an unconscious need to assert my independence and freedom.
GregT on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 4:45 pm
@Boat,
“Thats because Davey you don’t know 3% growth from recession. lol And you picked the 3% number.”
Still got your head firmly shoved up your ass, I see. Why is that Boat? Why do you continue to ignore everything that is occurring all around you?
“The IMF has cut its 2015 forecasts for world output to 3.1 per cent, only 0.1 per cent above the 3 per cent threshold for a recession. ”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-one-chart-that-shows-the-world-is-on-the-brink-of-a-new-recession-a6683416.html
“The International Monetary Fund defines a global recession as “a decline in annual per‑capita real World GDP (purchasing power parity weighted), backed up by a decline or worsening for one or more of the seven other global macroeconomic indicators: Industrial production, trade, capital flows, oil consumption, unemployment rate, per‑capita investment, and per‑capita consumption”.”
“Before April 2009, the IMF argued that a global annual real GDP growth rate of 3.0 percent or less was “equivalent to a global recession”.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_recession
rockman on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 4:55 pm
“Yet, this year solar and wind are cheaper than natural gas in all 15 US States.” And yet the increase in Btu’s generated from burning NG is increasing faster then the number of Btu’s from wind and solar.
Boat on Sat, 10th Oct 2015 5:04 pm
re·ces·sion
rəˈseSH(ə)n/
noun
1.
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
A recession does not have growth GregT. The world has growth. Why are you doomers so thick. Google recession, you will find that means decline not growth. You guys are so silly.