New projection of Peak Phosphorus

In 2007, we published one of the first papers on peak phosophorus, and since then have monitored coverage of the subject.

Now a detailed projection of phosphorus production by two Australian researchers  indicates that world phosphate rock production will most likely peak in 2027. Below is a summary of  the paper, Projections of Future Phosphorus Production, originally published at Philica.com .A PDF of the full paper is available at the Resilience website.

Co-author Steve Mohr is a Senior Research Consultant at the Institute for Sustainable Futures.  He has “developed the GeRS-DeMo – or Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model that estimates the demand, production (from mines or fields) and recycling of any geologic resource. Specifically, it can be used to predict the historic and future production, amount of recycling and demand of a metal, fossil fuel, or mineral.”  In 2010, we published his Projection of world fossil fuel production.  To see more projections for resources in general, go Mohr’s bio page and click on the GeRS-DeMo link.

Co-author Geoffrey Evans is a professor at the School of Engineering, University of Newcastle. 

– BA

Phosphorus and its compounds are used in fertilisers, animal feed, detergents, and metal treatment operations (Steen, 1998). More than 80 percent (Steen, 1998; Cordell et al., 2009; Van Vuuren et al., 2010) of the phosphorus produced is utilised in fertilisers to assist in crop production, resulting in increased yields of up to 50 percent (Stewart et al., 2005). Without the use of fertilisers it would be difficult to provide sufficient food for an expanding world population, which is projected to grow from around 0.9 billion in 1850 (Kremer, 1993) to 9 billion in 2050 (U.N., 2008). Corresponding to the increase in population has been an annual increase in phosphorus production, from less than 1 Mt (P)/y in 1850 to 22 Mt (P)/y in 2012. Currently, the current cumulative production of phosphorus, mined from phosphate rock and guano, is estimated to be approximately 954 Mt (P). Phosphorus is a finite resource and cannot be substituted for agricultural uses (USGS var.). Hence it is essential that the resource be managed in order to avoid, or mitigate at least, any future supply limitation. To do this, reliable estimates of future demand and realistic projections of production rates are required based on the amount of phosphorus that remains.

For predicting future supply the ultimately recoverable resource (URR) is commonly used and is equal to the combined sum of all historic and future production. Estimates of URR values for phosphorus currently range from 1,000 to 36,700 Mt (P) (Cordell et al., 2009; Déry and Anderson, 2007; Ward, 2008; Van Vuuren et al., 2010). Such a broad range in URR estimates highlights the uncertainty in the quantity of phosphorus-bearing material actually available. Future production projections also have a wide variation as they are dependent on both the amount of the recoverable resources still remaining as well as external drivers, such as droughts, wars, famines, etc, that influence annual production.

(a1) Static: Low	(b1) Dynamic: Low
(a2) Static: Best Estimate	(b2) Dynamic: Best Estimate
(a3) Static: High	(b3) Dynamic: High

   

Philica