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Page added on May 7, 2012
IMF working paper – “The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology”
We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices.
The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices, and that spare capacity has been near historic lows.
The technological view of oil expects that higher oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by the fact that high prices have, since 2003, led to upward revisions in production forecasts based on a purely geological view.
We present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade. The error bands are wide, and reflect sharply differing judgments on ultimately recoverable reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply.
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.
(May 2012)
Suggested by Walter Ryan-Purcell, who writes:
Comparing data from the EIA, IEA, Dr. Colin J. Campbell and others.Dr. Colin Campbell is speaking at the New Energy Era Forum this Tuesday May 8th at 10am. Professor Douglas Reynolds, The University of Alaska Fairbanks speaks at 2pm on Wednesday 9th. The New Energy Era Forum takes place at Liss Ard Estate Skibbereen, West Cork, Ireland, www.lissardestate.com
PDF: The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology
5 Comments on "IMF working paper – “The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology”"
BillT on Tue, 8th May 2012 1:24 am
I’ll read this later, all 33 pages. from the summary above, it appears that they might have a somewhat realistic view of the situation. But, I doubt it. After all, it is coming from the Bankster World that is looting as many countries as they can before it all ends.
Sinnycool on Tue, 8th May 2012 11:07 am
It is hard to believe that above paper fails to mention the effect of the increasing consumption by exporting countries (known as ELM or Export Land Model) which has a profound potential effect on net available oil.
That factor alone renders their conclusions meaningless.
SOS on Tue, 8th May 2012 12:32 pm
Production on federal lands is down about 30 per cent since this government took power in 2008.
BillT on Tue, 8th May 2012 1:48 pm
And it should go down to 0% production on Federal Lands. They are the property of the people, not industry. WE have to have something to leave to our grand kids besides petroleum pollution and death.
tahoevalleylines on Tue, 8th May 2012 9:49 pm
Wherever particular people gather to talk about oil, someone in the room should ask why comprehensive railway expansion and extension is not in the Oil Interregnum solution set?
Talking points at ASPO Articles 374 & 1037, respectively.
Comprehensive approach to local, off grid mobility and sustainable local/cluster economies: “ELECTRIC WATER” by Christopher C. Swan.