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Page added on April 1, 2013
Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the Supply,Outlook – from Energy Watch Group
Since 1998 when the oil geologists Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrère
published a widely discussed survey article “The End of Cheap Oil” in the journal
“Scientific American”, the concept of peak oil and the present state of oil depletion are part of
any serious analysis of the future oil supply potential. However, recently various publications
suggest that oil is still abundantly available and that there is little need to worry about the
future oil supply potential.
As in previous years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its
latest World Energy Outlook 2012 (WEO 2012) projects a rising global oil demand and supply
in the coming decades. The IEA explicitely asserts that for the forseeable future – to
2035 and beyond – no geological or technical restrictions will prevent a continually growing
oil supply. The media were echoing this report by emphasising the likelihood of a global oil
and gas supply glut triggered by new production technologies in the USA, while ignoring
possible geological supply restrictions.
In contrast to the projections put forward by the IEA, in 2008 the
Energy Watch Group (EWG) had published a report on the future world oil supply, presenting
a scenario projecting a significant decline of global oil supply in the coming decades up to
2030. It is the intention of this new report to update these findings by analysing the
developments which took place in the last five years and thereby to arrive at an enhanced understanding
of the conditions determining present and future oil supply.
In addition, it is the intention of this study to broaden the
perspective of the original study by
embedding the oil scenario into a global scenario for all fossil and
nuclear fuels by including
natural gas and by updating the EWG coal supply scenario of 2006 and the
EWG uranium
supply scenario of 2007.
In a nutshell, this report gives a short overview on the future
availability of fossil and nuclear
fuels with an emphasis on critical issues.
*Oil*
Empirical data shows that world oil production has not increased anymore
but has entered a plateau since about 2005. The production of conventional oil
is already in slight decline since about 2008. The peaking of conventional oil is now
also accepted by the International Energy Agency. Present and future efforts by the
oil industry are directed at upholding this plateau as long as possible while at the same
time having to struggle with the growing decline of production in ageing fields. It is
becoming increasingly more difficult to compensate this reduction by developing
new fields which are getting harder to find, smaller, and are of poorer quality.
Recent increases of unconventional oil and gas production in the USA
are due to a number of specific conditions, such as a highly developed oil and gas
industry and infrastructure, sizeable unconventional oil and gas resources in
prospective areas with very low population densities, certain financial incentives for publicly
listed companies, and exemptions for the oil and gas industry from environmental
restrictions (Energy Policy Act 2005). But most important were the high
oil and gas prices reached in 2006. This has led to the fast development of the few
hot spots of shale gas and light tight oil while the decline of the conventional oil
and gas production is continuing to progress.
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG-update2013_long_18_03_2\
013.pdf
8 Comments on "Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the Supply,Outlook – from Energy Watch Group"
BillT on Mon, 1st Apr 2013 12:39 pm
Bottom line, the line is heading for the bottom. Oil that is. Now that even the sweetest spots for fraking have been drilled, not much to look forward to but less and less oil and more and more expensive costs.
Somewhere in the near future those lines will cross and the whole system will collapse. At what point will cars be pulled to the curb and left to rust? When will the cost of a well be more than the consumer can afford to pay for, not to mention any profit?
It is not just quantity in the ground, it is a lot of factors, ALL of which will soon change the past 100 years of happy motoring to an age of happy other transport, like public, or, GASP, walking.
rollin on Mon, 1st Apr 2013 12:56 pm
The whole industry is covered with a fog of disinformation, especially in the areas of reservea and discovery. Even so it is quite apparent that the proliferation of unconventional oil production and deep water drilling means that the final effort is under way, at high expense.
Even with fracking and EOR techniques it is doubtful that the oil industries can keep up production past 2020.The combination of increased costs, decreasing discoveries, user efficiency gains, and transition to other energy sources will cause demand destruction across the globe. National economic failures may further reduce the ability or need to produce oil. I give them five more years of fighting the inevitable.
Kenz300 on Mon, 1st Apr 2013 4:18 pm
The oil, coal and nuclear industries are full of misinformation.
All they care about is protecting their monopolies and PROFITS.
They want to promote a feeling of endless supply so that there is less urgency to switching to alternatives. They are doing all they can to block alternatives from taking hold and increasing their competition.
Wind, solar, wave energy, geothermal and second generation biofuels made from algae, cellulose and waste are the future. Energy generated from alternative fuel sources continues to grow and their cost continues to decline with advances in technology
Renewable-Energy Growth to Outpace Oil, Gas Through 2030
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-18/renewables-to-grow-more-than-8-a-year-through-2030-bp-says.html
Nuclear energy is too costly and too dangerous.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-21/tepco-sets-plans-to-dismantle-fukushima-reactors.html
Arthur on Mon, 1st Apr 2013 4:26 pm
Conclusions of the report:
– peak energy (carbon + nuclear) in 2018
– in 2030 carbon + nuclear energy production will have declined from 130 units (2018) to 110 units (back to 2005 levels)
– report does not mention potential of methane hydrates
Time to buy stocks in solar and wind companies, if you have to buy stocks at all.
Report is written under the supervision of a higher up in the German Green party, which could lead to the suspicion that here and there figures might have been rounded off downwards. But by and large this report is probably closer to the truth than the ‘oil glut’ crowd of the Wallstreet Journal and palls.
Plantagenet on Mon, 1st Apr 2013 6:46 pm
Its curious how the “peak energy” prediction for 2018 conflicts so dramatically with the Obama administrations prediction that the US will be energy independent by 2020.
Somebody is going to be proved very very wrong on this one!
Arthur on Mon, 1st Apr 2013 7:24 pm
Peak energy 2018 refers to the global situation, Obama’s illusions relate to the US.
rollin on Mon, 1st Apr 2013 10:22 pm
The US can be energy independent by 2020 as long as there is a lot of demand destruction.
Jimmy Brousseau on Tue, 2nd Apr 2013 8:57 pm
Ok first time on this site but I think ASPO closed down because I can’t log onto the site. But here goes: someone please explain to why peak oil is still a paradigm shifting problem that will have to be addressed in our lifetime?.
I became fascinated with this subject after documentaries like A Crude Awakening and the beautifully done Collapse. But it seems that the predictions and the entire energy outlook has significantly altered since 2008 with the emergence of fracking, natural gas, etc. I thought we had peaked and shit was gonna get real around 2030. Why or why not is this the case? Any links or run downs would be greatly appreciated. Hah I can’t wait around for the next energy doc to boil it down for me. Thanks.