Peak Oil is You
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Page added on June 17, 2014
End of Oil and Gas Still Many Decades Away
With the June 16 release of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, there is some continuing good news. The end of oil and natural gas is still at least a half-century or more away. The reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios for both fossil fuels are well above 50 years.
The end of oil is further away than ever. Back in 1980, the R/P ratio (a.k.a., time to depletion at current production rates) for global oil reserves was less than 30 years — now it has increased to more than 53 years. In other words, over the past 35 years we have been discovering new oil reserves at a far faster rate than we have been depleting old reserves.
19 Comments on "End of Oil and Gas Still Many Decades Away"
Pops on Tue, 17th Jun 2014 3:38 pm
No, we’ve simply been adding things to the list of what we call “oil.”
As I said elsewhere, the reserves now listed will last much longer than 53 years simply because we will never be able to extract tar sands “oil” and the other x-heavy stuff by drilling a vertical well then sitting back and watching the money roll in.
Peak oil isnt about the “end” of oil, merely about the end of this rate of extraction.
GregT on Tue, 17th Jun 2014 4:13 pm
“End of Oil and Gas Still Many Decades Away”
Too bad that we can only afford to burn about a third of known reserves, if we hope to have a chance of survival as a species.
Bob Owens on Tue, 17th Jun 2014 4:57 pm
Given our current situation in Iraq, the world could be more like months or a few years away from running out of oil. Reserves mean nothing if you don’t have a stable producer.
J-Gav on Tue, 17th Jun 2014 5:07 pm
Meaningless drivel.
John Gav on Tue, 17th Jun 2014 8:21 pm
Yes Pops
Coal based liquids and gases were the latest addition to the Crude Oil.
So the Oil basket has
NGL (Ethane, Propane, Butane),
Tight Oil,
Oil Sands (Bitumen),
Biofuels (Ethanol & Biodiesel),
Coal to Gas
Coal to Liquids
Gas to Liquids.
Soon they may include Natural Gas in Oil saying that its a Hydrocarbon.
Poordogabone on Tue, 17th Jun 2014 9:10 pm
We have already ran out of cheap oil and that is what made the world go around for the last 200 years.
And that is why austerity is here to stay no matter what you want to call it. In a few years, half of the population will work at no wage for food and shelter for the other half.
bob on Tue, 17th Jun 2014 9:55 pm
Poor…I will have to give you the idiot comment of the week award…do you really think BAU will go on if half the world is starving…or is that your dream as you look at the poor peasants….yes you feel sorry for them but at least you are o.k….nice dream but not very realistic…
James on Tue, 17th Jun 2014 10:37 pm
I wish someone would get their facts straight. Do we have Peak Oil or not?
Makati1 on Tue, 17th Jun 2014 11:54 pm
Poor, you see the future better than some here. The few still working in the US are supporting the 47+ million on food stamps, the millions getting unemployment checks, the millions on welfare, the 2+ million in prisons, the many million government ‘workers’, the corporate subsidies, the ‘wars of plunder’, the Police State apparatus, the millions of college grads now living in the parents basements, etc. The median income is dropping. Take out the top 1/10% incomes and the drop would be a cliff. Not to mention the $17+ trillion debt (100+% of US GDP) or the many trillions in various financial ‘bets’ that will have to be paid eventually.
THAT is reality in the US.
Keith_McClary on Wed, 18th Jun 2014 12:26 am
Makati1:
“The few still working in the US are supporting …”
I thought it was money printing.
Keith_McClary on Wed, 18th Jun 2014 12:32 am
Poordogabone:
“… cheap oil and that is what made the world go around for the last 200 years.”
More like the last 70 years. I think 90% of oil consumption has been in that time.
Meld on Wed, 18th Jun 2014 12:34 am
@james – yes we had peak “oil” back in 07/08, now we’re adding unconventional oil to the mix which is far more expensive and doesn’t have a high enough eroei to contiue BAU. There will be no “Doomer collapse” to speak of, we are in the “collapse” right now, it’s just going to take at least a few decades until most people realise it.
More wars, more expensive food, power outages, food disruption, health care destruction, famine, floods, but also people wlll try to keep BAU going in their cultural mind programming for as long as possible.
Norm on Wed, 18th Jun 2014 12:38 am
Yay!! The end of oil is several decades away!! I am going to the car lot, to buy an Escalade!! By the time the loan is paid off, I’ll still have another 5 or 10 years driving before the oil runs out. Woo hoo !!
Norm on Wed, 18th Jun 2014 12:42 am
James, yes, you have peak oil. Conventional oil peaked in 2005, and is declining. The flow is being kept reasonable due to the ‘alternatives’ such as shale oil which require insane amounts of drilling. James buy yourself a popcorn popper cause when armageddon arrives due to running out of oil, you’ll want a nice big bagful and a front row seat and don’t forget the melted butter. And all the ‘leaders’ will be nowhere to be found, they are all criminals anyway, they will run off to their submarine hatch bomb shelter.
Aire on Wed, 18th Jun 2014 7:27 am
Meld — “There will be no “Doomer collapse” to speak of, we are in the “collapse” right now, it’s just going to take at least a few decades until most people realise it.” — Meld
This was more true after the first peak oil of the 70s – The American peak oil. Since then we have been on a rollercoaster ride. BillT mentioned this in his comment , the only thing a bit misleading is his welfare comment – since welfare was discontinued but it took up other forms basically. There are safety nets holding this country from turning into what you’re seeing in the third world. All these people getting financial assistance and housing assistance are in my opinion keeping the USA from becoming more like Mexico or something.
Meld on Wed, 18th Jun 2014 8:33 am
@Aire – exactly, the governments of the world will do everything in their power to keep “peace” EVERYTHING . I think many people think peak oil means BAM! no more oil and a zombie apocalypse mad max type world. What is actually happening is collapse and then consolidation and transition then collapse, consolidation, etc. etc.. Billions will die, but they will die of a lack of health care first, then lack of nutrition. It’s already happening globally and if people can’t see it now they are never going to see it. One day they’ll just die and blame somebody else for it.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Wed, 18th Jun 2014 9:05 am
Meld this is true while the food crisis is manageable and the PO is on an undulating plateau. Once these two issues become critical the complex global system and its vital nodes of communication, finance, command, distribution, and infrastructure maintenance will suffer entropic decay swiftly. If a large drop occurs and a reboot is missed early on much infrastructure will be toast and never replaced. I am not optimistic with a reboot scenario with much of the world engaged in simmering trade civil wars and geopolitical posturing. It will take coordination by the nation that are “too big to fail” A place like the Philippians can collapse no problem but Europe, China, US, and vital resource states are another issue.
pat on Wed, 18th Jun 2014 11:42 am
These are highly uncertain times and the world is running out of oil/cheap oil. prepare for the oil shortages as early as 2015 and the majority of the high energy oil/con.oil is in highly unstable regions and very soon oil from the region may go off the table completely/evaporate. new 150 oil is new normal
peakyeast on Wed, 18th Jun 2014 3:40 pm
The governments has all the power they need to collect taxes to fulfill their own wishes and they use them. The common worker has no chance of defending against this and will be bankrupted since he would like to keep a chance of keeping his property and pseudo freedom.
From the looks of it here in Denmark the plan is to depopulate the farmlands and collect everyone possible into the cities. I suppose that makes whatever it is they want to do easier.
The tax extortion and indirectly forced relocation will become more prevalent and undisguised until things fall apart very suddenly.
IMHO.