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Page added on December 31, 2015
Doubting The Peak
Dennis Coyne, an editor and frequent contributor to this blog, has suggested that we are not at peak oil. He argues that there is likely to be a dip in production starting next year but higher prices will cause things to turn around and we will surpass the 2015 peak by 2019. He commented a few days ago:
If we take some of the larger producers that have been increasing output and compare with the rest of the world(ROW) using EIA data from Jan 2004 to June 2015 (using the trailing 12 month average to focus on the trend) we see ROW decline has been relatively modest (1.4% based on the trailing 12 month output in June 2015). The eight increasing producing countries I have chosen are Brazil, Canada, China, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and US and ROW=World minus the 8 countries just listed.
One possible scenario is that output is flat for the Big 8 in 2016 so that World C+C output falls by 485 kb/d in 2016 (average output for the year compared to the 2015 average). Over the 2009 to Jun 2015 period the Big 8 increased output at about 1300 kb/d per year, if we assume this rate slows to half the previous rate to a 650 kb/d per year increase (1.4%/year), then the peak is surpassed in 4 years in 2019. On a per country basis this would be a little more than a 80 kb/d increase in average annual output for each of these countries, though I doubt it would be divided equally.
So I have taken close look Dennis’s “Big 8” countries as well as “The Rest of the World”, and looked at their JODI data charts. The last data point is October 2015.
First, the rest of the world.
This is the world less Brazil, Canada, China, Iraq, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA. As a group they peaked in October 2004 and have been in decline ever since. They have declined in times of low oil prices and high oil prices. And barring a miracle they will continue to decline.
Okay, here is where the action is. You can see, from the price chart below, that they peaked in July of 2008 right when the price peaked, then fell when oil prices collapsed and did not breach their 2008 high until October of 2010 when oil pries reached $85 a barrel.
The decline in 2008 production was largely due to OPEC cuts.
Brent price went above $100 in February of 2011 and remained there, with just a couple of dips below that number, until September 2014. That price did nothing for “The Rest of the World” as charted above.
Strangely $100 oil did not do much for the three OPEC members of the Big 8 either. They stayed pretty much on the same plateau that they had been on since 2004. It was only after prices collapsed to below $50 a barrel in March of 2015 did Saudi Arabia and Iraq really begin to increase production. Since February 2015, these three, mostly Iraq and Saudi, have increased production over 1,300,000 barrels per day. Even though sanctions will soon be lifted and Iran will increase production, I don’t think there is a chance OPEC will hold their present level of production. In fact the OPEC 2015 World Oil Outlook has OPEC crude falling by 400,000 bpd from its 2015 average to 2019. Remember, just like our “Rest of the World” chart above, most OPEC nations are in decline.
The Non-OPEC 5 of the Big 8 was affected very little by the 2008 price collapse. The spike down you see in late 2008 was primarily due to Hurricanes Gustav and Ike in the Gulf of Mexico. But higher oil prices did bring a lot of high cost production on line. And if prices do return to above $80 a barrel some of that production will no doubt return. But the decline in the shale oil patch is extremely steep. Enough may come back on line to slow, or halt the shale decline but I doubt if enough will come back on line, fast enough, to make shale grow again. Or at least not nearly as fast as it has grown in the past.
Just one more note about Russia. First a few links and comments:
Siberian oil output to be supported by tax overhaul
Russian energy minister says more than 70 million (billion) barrels of oil uneconomic at this point.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said oil production in Western Siberia, once a major contributor to overall output, was declining at an average rate of around 1 percent per year. Changes in a tax system, where so-called excess profits will be taxed at 70 percent, will make Western Siberia commercially viable.
Oil production in Russia’s Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District to decline by 2.1% in 2016
Oil production in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District in 2016, according to the forecast by the Federal Subsoil Resources Management Agency, will fall by almost 2% to 238.1 million tons, the regional government told TASS Wednesday.
This is Western Siberia where about most of Russia’s oil is produced.
West Siberia is Russia’s main oil-producing region, accounting for about 6.4 million b/d of liquids production, more than 60% of Russia’s total production in 2013.10 One of the largest and oldest fields in West Siberia is Samotlor field, which has been producing oil since 1969. Samotlor field has been in decline since reaching a post-Soviet era peak of 635,000 b/d in 2006. However, with continued investment and application of standard enhanced oil recovery techniques, decline at the field has been kept to an average of 5% per year from 2008 to 2014, significantly lower than the natural decline rate for mature West Siberian fields of 10-14% per year.
I think it is very obvious that Russia has peaked. I think China has peaked also and Brazil is very close to peaking if it has not already.
I just don’t see the promise of a resurgence in 2019 oil production that will surpass the 2015 peak in world oil production.
But we shall see.
56 Comments on "Doubting The Peak"
geopressure on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 1:30 pm
Of course the world oil production has not peaked…
Norway is bringing a 500K BOPD field online in 2019 (Will probably come online at least a year early)…
Then you have Kurdistan, Iran, Lybia, Sudan, West Africa… All of which have enormous spare capacity…
Saudi Arabia has fields that have been discovered, but never developed…
Then you have unconventional oil in practically every basin…
The world is no where close to peak production…
penury on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 1:41 pm
The inability to accept reality will assure the demise of the humans and all the other animals. Must remember Peak Oil is not necessarily a geological condition. Ability to access, extract,process and sell also must be available, I think the world is beyond affording most of the undiscovered, undeveloped resources(?).
geopressure on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 1:50 pm
The ability to access, extract, process & sell IS available… I think that many posters on this website often fail to realize how energy intensive crude oil is… Those Carbon-Carbon bonds store a tremendous amount of energy…
onlooker on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 1:53 pm
Oh I for one do. Every time I am out on the road and see all those cars after many years seeing all of them, I cannot help to think how energy intensive fossil fuels are.
Anonymous on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 2:29 pm
geo pressure – I suggest you read this: http://fractionalflow.com/2015/03/10/norwegian-crude-oil-reserves-and-extraction-per-2014/ Johann Sverdrup barely even stops the decline in Norwegian production for one year.
shortonoil on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 2:49 pm
“The ability to access, extract, process & sell IS available…”
At $37/ barrel it will only last until the credit markets collapse. The richest oil producing nation on earth is borrowing money to pay its bills, and could be bankrupt in five years. The nation with the largest oil reserves in the world can not afford toilet paper for its citizens. Texas is now in a depression, and $100,000 per year North Dakota tool pushers are now on unemployment. It would be fairly easy to find several million people who think you are nuts!
geopressure on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 3:20 pm
That does not make them right…
shortonoil on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 3:33 pm
“That does not make them right…”
Nor you!
Pete Bauer on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 4:07 pm
First we have to define what is OIL before talking about Peak OIL.
Any substance (Chemically a Compound) that has More than 1 Carbon atom and also has Hydrogen is considered an OIL.
So here are the substances.
NatGas Liquids (Ethane, Propane, Butane) [Between 2 – 4 carbon atoms]
Naphtha (Gasoline) [Between 5 – 10 carbon atoms]
Gasoil (Kerosene & Diesel) [Between 11 – 20 carbon atoms]
Fuel Oil [Between 20 – 70 carbon atoms]
Bitumen [More than 70 carbon atoms]
Biofuels [2 carbon atoms in Ethanol and around 18 carbon atoms in Biodiesel]
Petroleum Coke [Contains 80 – 90% carbon with only 0.1% to 3% Hydrogen in it].
Pretty soon, edible oils like Canola, Sunflower, Palm will also be included since those oils can be converted to Biodiesel.
As long as bio sources are included in Oil, there will NEVER be Peak Oil.
geopressure on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 4:08 pm
I never said that it did…
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 5:12 pm
@ geopressure- are you fucking retarded?
dave thompson on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 5:17 pm
IMHO the first chart listed as “the rest of the world” sez it all. Those decline rates will not be compensated for. Extend that chart another five to ten years, conservatively, replacing those declines will not be happening.
makati1 on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 6:54 pm
You can tell who has a vested interest, financially or otherwise in petroleum by their comments … geopressure.
shortonoil on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 7:01 pm
“Extend that chart another five to ten years, conservatively, replacing those declines will not be happening.”
Five years is probably the limit:
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm
This is the graph that so many say does not exit, because no one predicted the decline????
Once the price reaches the average lifting cost a well’s cash flow goes negative and it is shut in. Once the pressure is lost so is much of the remaining crude in the well. Once closed they will not be reopened. The average water cut for wells in the US is now better than 90%, and the same can be said for the older Russian, and North Sea fields. These fields have lifting cost of better than $20 with a WOR of 40 to 45:1. Once price falls into the $20 range, expect a landslide of closures and bankruptcies to follow. The collapse of shale, bitumen, ultra deep water, and high sulfur extra heavy will just be the beginning.
geopressure on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 7:24 pm
“You can tell who has a vested interest, financially or otherwise in petroleum by their comments … geopressure.”
Can you Elaborate?
geopressure on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 7:31 pm
“You can tell who has a vested interest, financially or otherwise in petroleum by their comments … geopressure.”
Would a vested interest, financially of otherwise somehow make my statements incorrect???
I would say that there is a chance that you might be bias.
My comments simply point to an abundance of near-medium term supply… I think Oil Prices have bottomed for now though, prices will likely rise in 2016, but there will be another oversupply situation on the horizon (probably between 2018 & 2020)…
—
You must be practiced at loosing discussions; because, you sure were quick to try & discredit me by saying that I have a vested interest… Vested Interest or no, the facts remain constant…
dave thompson on Thu, 31st Dec 2015 7:59 pm
Yes GEO the facts of the first graph showing depletion rates that will never be made up.
Gary on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 12:07 am
The stone age did not end because we ran out of stones. Oil is mainly used for transportation. Once we switch to electric vehicles the demand for fossil fuel alternatives will cause a rapid transition. When I say rapid, I am referring to a 20 year span.
dave thompson on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 1:16 am
When we “transition” to electric cars will there be oil left to build roads? Things like rubber,asphalt,concrete,steel,plastics, the mining of metals and mineral ore, will never be produced by driving a Chevy volt.
makati1 on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 1:18 am
Gary, let’s see. 1 billion oily autos in the world today. Annual production of electric cars is about 1,000,000 annually, maybe. So, in ~1,000 years all of them will be electric? Don’t forget the millions of trucks, not to mention the heavy machines that mine and build roads, dams, etc. 20 years? In 20 years, the only electric will be a few antique solar roof top systems still working, maybe. No commercial electric.
makati1 on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 1:24 am
Geo, when someone fanatically defends a position against all odds and facts, it is usually that they have a vested interest in that position not changing. That is what I said and meant.
Many on here cannot accept the end of BAU and a decline into the 3rd world, or worse. It usually turns out that their income, career, and/or planned future is dependent on BAU or a close facsimile of same. Some admit it. Others deny it. Makes no difference. What will be, will be.
Davy on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 5:09 am
Geo, you are up against a board that has some individuals who are coercive and intollorant of balanced aurguments. You are just going to have to ignore this and not take it personally.
Balanced and fair discussions are central to fact discovery but these “truth markers” make people and groups uncomfortable. If your ideas start to gain traction then the personal attacks start.
This polarization and domination by a few is detrimental to a vital message this board is capable of. In this day and age of people starved for answers we should rise above this partisan activity. We have to be accommodating to opposing ideas. Otherwise we are just another example of what status quo debate has degenerated into.
JuanP on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 6:23 am
Geo, I agree that Lybia and Iraq could theoretically increase their oil production some. So could Canada, Venezuela, and the USA, maybe. For this to happen prices need to go up significantly pretty soon and the political situation in some of these countries because they are a mess. Natural depletion reduces global oil production from already producing sources by 3-4 mbpd every year. For how long do you think these countries could increase their production enough to make up for that? A year? Two years?
We are very likely past global all liquid fuels production, not just oil, which peaked years ago. Depending on how you define “oil”, its production peaked in 2005, 2008, or 2011. This is a very difficult subject to understand.
Geo “I think that many posters on this website often fail to realize how energy intensive crude oil is…”. A few posters here may, but most don’t. Most regular people in this forum have been at this years, if not decades, and have invested countless hours researching this particular subject. Some even have decades of oil industry experience like Rockman on top of their decades of personal research. For you to come here and argue that we have no idea what we are talking about is ignorant and disrespectful. You should not expect good answers to a comment like that. We’ve seen hundreds, if not thousands of people like you through the years, we understand where you come from. You think you know many things, but most of them are wrong.
I very clearly understand how unique, energy dense, stable, easily transportable, easy to store, and irreplaceable oil. There is nothing else like oil in the world. I think that maybe you underestimate the energy, economic, social, and environmental costs of oil extraction, transportation, refining, and distribution, and should research these more before criticizing others who have already done it. If you stay in this forum long enough, you could learn a lot, though some members have been here a decade and still don’t get it, so there are no guarantees that you will ever get it.
shortonoil on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 11:05 am
In 2013 the world’s producers brought 4 Gb of new production on line; the world consumed 32. That 4 Gb came at a price of $19.75/ barrel for the E&D cost. The world replaced 12% of its consumption at a cost of more than 50% of the present price of the oil. Those same producers are now extracting oil at an accelerated rate in an attempt to compensate for the now lower price. Production has not Peaked for the simple reason that producers can not afford to reduce production. Neither can they afford to continue producing without replacing the reserves that they are extracting. The fields that they are now extracting from may last a few more years. When they are gone it is over! There will be nothing waiting in the wings to replace them. If you are waiting for the Peak, you are waiting for the end!
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
rockman on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 12:11 pm
Juan – I don’t really like playing the semantics game but OPEC bumping production up requires it. As you point out there is NPO, “natural” PO and APO, “artificial” PO. Hopefly I don’t have to define them. The global producers holding back production (extra capacity) develops APO. But if all production capability is brought on (perhaps as we have today) then we might be at NPO. It’s an important distinction because it changes the perception of the dynamic: in the last 10 mo ths the world did not discover most of the reservoirs that are producing the current historic high rate. For the most part those reserves were discovered years ago…in some cases decades ago like Ghawar.
But as you know the date of either PO is of little importance to the Rockman. What is important is the current dynamic that has brought about our possible current NPO as well as future changes that might bring us back to APO.
Apneaman on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 1:04 pm
Geo
Davy watches so much Fox news that he can’t make one comment without inserting the “fair and balanced” jingle in every third paragraph. It’s really nothing but non stop non specific all encompassing special pleading. Davy thinks he gets to make the rules up – control freak. He’s constantly proclaiming what is acceptable or unacceptable. See, this way if he repeats it enough it will become “law” and “truth” and then he can pull it out whenever he hears something he doesn’t like. This way he can attack someone on the grounds of indecency or agenda seeking or some other rule violation instead of their ideas and evidence. He always makes sure that others are aware when a commenter broke one of the rules – looking for allies. This is why he is playing the concerned buddy to you and warning you of all the rule breakers on here. There is no “partisan activity” just some individuals who spotted Davy’s bullshit a long time ago. Davy likes to pretend he is the mature statesman, but when he loses it his true colours come shining through – like challenging others to knife fights, saying he shits on their family and other such decent, fair and balanced sentiments.
Davy on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 1:31 pm
Wow Ape was actually capable of a discussion without having to say The “F” word. Maybe he is trying to improve his adolescent level vocabulary skills.
It is great to start the new year off knowing I irritated the town bully. If you refer back to my comment it fits him perfectly. Not that it was directed at him but it caught him in the net anyway. This is why he could not resist a longer than normal rebuttal attack. I am surprised there was no copy and paste redundant leftover link from 2015 included. Most of his links have shelf life long expired but he still uses them. Happy New Year Ape Turd.
coffeeguyzz on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 3:48 pm
Davy
Gotta chime in and applaud your comments on discussing varying points of views in this era of cyber communication.
Whoever is responsible for hosting/running this site must put in a great deal of time and effort and I appreciate the opportunity to scan a wide array of inputs in the articles.
While I may disagree with about 95% of the opinions the articles espouse, the info tends to either prompt questioning of my own ‘stuff’ or validates my confidence in my already-held views.
As for the cyber behavior of many of the regular commentators here? Without a shred of doubt, this would NEVER occur in face-to-face situations as the cowardly insults would spark immediate, physical repercussions.
Unfortunately, the collective makeup of said individuals inhibits their ability to recognize how they besmirch both themselves and this site.
Oh well …
geopressure on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 4:14 pm
“You can tell who has a vested interest, financially or otherwise in petroleum by their comments … geopressure.”
Would a vested interest, financially of otherwise somehow make my statements incorrect???
I would say that there is a chance that you might be bias.
My comments simply point to an abundance of near-medium term supply… I think Oil Prices have bottomed for now though, prices will likely rise in 2016, but there will be another oversupply situation on the horizon (probably between 2018 & 2020)…
—
You must be practiced at loosing discussions; because, you sure were quick to try & discredit me by saying that I have a vested interest… Vested Interest or no, the facts remain constant…
geopressure on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 4:17 pm
JuanP:
You don’t have a monopoly on experience & research…
JuanP on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 4:29 pm
Geo, I can tell from your comments and your attitude that you are one of those persons who are emotionally and psychologically incapable of learning inconvenient truths. I will refrain from wasting any more of my time and energy on you in the future because I have none to waste on hopeless causes. I will simply ignore your stupid comments from now on.
shortonoil on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 4:48 pm
“My comments simply point to an abundance of near-medium term supply… I think Oil Prices have bottomed for now though, prices will likely rise in 2016,”
Over the last year the industry’s revenue stream has fallen by $2.3 trillion. Even if prices rebounded to $60 next year (which is possible, but not likely), and the industry could return 10% on its gross sales, it would require 11 years for it to make up the losses from just that one year. The petroleum industry has been wounded, and probably fatally. Your hope for its rejuvenation is completely unfounded from the results of just some simple math.
BC on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 6:39 pm
https://app.box.com/s/h0p6s4ye96k6cx7smn0r2te0giganyy1
https://app.box.com/s/xcult10g1qfq3qi9wobow4j4l6j0pu0o
https://app.box.com/s/xywlbqm8wswzhfmxh0paiil9cysh8cmk
I’ll concede that I’m repeating myself to a fault, but despite the crash in the price of oil to $37 (perhaps the mid- to upper $20s this winter), oil is still not yet “cheap” in terms of oil consumption to final sales/GDP and vs. the cyclical and secular change rates of real final sales.
In fact, oil consumption to final sales at the differential change rate has been recessionary since 2006-07, i.e., Peak Oil.
https://app.box.com/s/ez8l4e8xbt57nqrsh0p60cb45g1vgfvr
The Fed’s timing for raising rates is surreal. The last three times the Fed tightened or increased the price of reserves under similar conditions as today occurred in the early 1980s with price inflation surging, 1936-37, and and 1931.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=311U
The Fed’s rate hike is occurring coincident with banks’ C&I loan delinquencies and charge-offs accelerating YoY since Q2.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=2XMx
And all of this is occurring with Texas (and the energy states) unambiguously in recession as of Q1-Q2.
WTI at $37 is still not “cheap” enough to permit “escape velocity” for the US economy; but it is too “cheap” for shale oil and tar producers to make a profit producing the lower-quality, costlier crude oil substitutes.
Prepare for the Fed to reverse course at some point in H1 2016 and resume QEternity to credit TBTE banks’ balance sheets in order to fund increasing fiscal deficits/GDP to prevent nominal GDP from contracting in 2016-17.
The broader stock market is already in a stealth bear market, and the housing market bubble of 2012-14 is deflating, setting up another ~20-25% decline nationwide and 30-40% for the bubbliest areas on the coasts.
Practice your peasant Spanish and stock up on beans, rice, tortillas (or corn or wheat flour to make tortillas), Jim Beam and Maker’s Mark, ammo, tools, cash, and gold, especially if gold falls below $1,000/oz. (Gold will hereafter be a liquidity/”money” substitute rather than for speculative price appreciation hereafter.)
Happy New Year, brothers.
BC on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 6:43 pm
To the site moderators: Brother(s), would you please set the spam filter settings for my name and email address to prevent my posts from being flagged as spam, and thus requiring moderation before the posts are visible, when I include two or more links?
Thanks.
makati1 on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 7:31 pm
coffeegyz, not everyone resorts to physical means when confronted by something they don’t like while talking to someone face-to-face. Only unintelligent baboons that have not learned to live in civilized society lose their cool and use force. A sign of many things lacking in their character including lack of control.
If you don’t like the message, walk away. Take away their power over you. Ignore them. I do.
makati1 on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 7:34 pm
BC, I have the same problem and I refuse to break them down into several comments because they loses their message.
geopressure on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 7:52 pm
“Over the last year the industry’s revenue stream has fallen by $2.3 trillion. Even if prices rebounded to $60 next year (which is possible, but not likely), and the industry could return 10% on its gross sales, it would require 11 years for it to make up the losses from just that one year. The petroleum industry has been wounded, and probably fatally. Your hope for its rejuvenation is completely unfounded from the results of just some simple math.”
Claims like this are so nonsensical that I think you must be joking, or more likely trolling…
Either way, joking or trolling, have fun with it…
antaris on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 7:58 pm
Geo whom ever you are. Short makes a whole lot more sense than you and your puppet buddies.
geopressure on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 8:01 pm
“Geo, I can tell from your comments and your attitude”
What attitude is that???
You & others seem to be here to force your opinions onto others, armed with an amateur website (the hills group) & some Entropy Equations that are not applicable in the way that the hills group seeks to apply them.
On the other hand, I am here to explore the facts (not your opinions)…
GregT on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 9:50 pm
“On the other hand, I am here to explore the facts (not your opinions)…”
In other words; You are only here to hear what you want to hear, and are not interested in exploring others’ ideas or opinions.
A terrible attitude for anybody who is honestly searching for the truth.
Apneaman on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 10:21 pm
geotard, what’s the difference between an amature web site and a professional one?
Pete Bauer on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 10:49 pm
I think Iraq & Iran will compete with each other and sell more oil pushing the oil production to further heights.
danny on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 11:05 pm
I will have to agree with geo here….even though I am and have been a peak oil person since early 1990….the child like name calling and attitude really does a disservice to the real comments and the people who take the time to make this website and keep it running. Some people on both sides have so much invested in this that they will not listen to anything…..that being said I think that now more than ever the message of peak oil needs to be spoken with complete honesty….In talking to relative and friends it seems like a lot of people out there believe that the reason oil is so cheap right now is because we are needing it less because of technology and efficiencies. And I believe that could not be further from the truth; but that is what people are being sold right now.
twocats on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 11:19 pm
I don’t particularly like either side of Ron’s argument. 2019 seems like a really long way away, and if we are going to have depressed prices for that long, that’s a lot of potential fields that won’t get developed, equipment that’s gonna be rusty, workforce scattered to the winds. On the other hand, if prices were to recover strongly in the next 4 to 6 months, it seems like a slam dunk for the world to turn around production and at least nominally hit a new high. I’m voting for TBD.
JuanP on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 11:19 pm
Coffee, I have never in my life allowed other people to keep me from saying the truth as I see. I was expelled from several schools and church for that. I left my family and my country over this. I have been threatened and insulted to exhaustion, but have never felt a need or a want to physically attack anyone over it. I will argue with people that hold different opinions till I drop dead if they are open minded and willing to change, grow, and learn, but not with people that can’t.
Maybe you do feel like fighting when you lose a fight. You wouldn’t be the only one on this board, as it was pointed out above, but it is a mistake to project the way you are on other people. I mostly feel sad for people who can’t face the truth. Living in denial must be a horrible way to go through life. It is also extremely cowardly. Why would I beat a cowardly idiot or a mentally ill fool? Would they improve in any way if I did? I wouldn’t see the point. I ignore crazy, arrogant and ignorant fools, nothing pisses them off more. I lost count of the people that hate my guts in Kindergarten and I never gave a fuck about them. The world is filled with imbeciles.
danny on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 11:35 pm
JaunP ….I have argued with a lot of people in various fields people with PHD’S and say what you will about the education system blah…blah…but you have to give credit to where it is due.I don’t profess to know everything and if you think you do then why are you wasting your time here…I suggest your read some Robert Anton Wilson for all we know there may be many different dimensions within our reach…hell I don’t know but I also don’t pretend to know….bringing the conversation down to the “kindergarten” level is a waste of your time my time and frankly just an eye sore…..so what if someone disagrees with you calling them names and such…come on
JuanP on Fri, 1st Jan 2016 11:53 pm
Danny, You just don’t make sense, but I won’t argue with you. The people that matter to me on this board know how I am. Your opinion of me or how you waste your time are not my problem, but you are welcome to skip my comments, man. I skip over the comments of people I think are ignorant fools, so why can’t you? If you think I am a fool don’t read my comments. It’s very easy to do. I wouldn’t mind at all. 😉
danny on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 12:09 am
I do try to skip over your comments but it is like being behind some idiot with a bunch of shitty bumper stickers on their bumper…I don’t want to read them but too late……You have a hard time comprehending what you read I understand that……..It is the name calling etc…..that I was demeaning not intelligent conversation but if you want to defend that go back to your playground…..
Apneaman on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 12:18 am
danny, “sticks and stones may break my bones but names can never hurt me”
That’s from kindergarten. Maybe you need to revisit previous levels.
onlooker on Sat, 2nd Jan 2016 12:40 am
Good point Danny: “In talking to relative and friends it seems like a lot of people out there believe that the reason oil is so cheap right now is because we are needing it less because of technology and efficiencies. And I believe that could not be further from the truth; but that is what people are being sold right now.” If you read enough the comments here you confirm what you already know. Back in 2008 oil rose to very high levels prompting the LTO Shale plays while debilitating the economy. Yet thereon a certain inelasticity in oil demand and the brittle economy dictated high production and a relatively low oil price. As you said nothing to do with what the public is being told or what is being insinuated.